Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

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Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes in Bavaria

Water ◽

10.3390/w12061599 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1599 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Benjamin Poschlod ◽

Florian Willkofer ◽

Ralf Ludwig

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Emission Scenario ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Hierarchical Cluster ◽

Reference Period ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Monthly Discharge ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

This study assesses the change of the seasonal runoff characteristics in 98 catchments in central Europe between the reference period of 1981–2010, and in the near future (2011–2040), mid future (2041–2070) and far future (2071–2099). Therefore, a large ensemble of 50 hydrological simulations featuring the model WaSiM-ETH driven by a 50-member ensemble of the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5 (CRCM5) under the emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) is analyzed. A hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to group the runoff characteristics into six flow regime classes. In the study area, (glacio-)nival, nival (transition), nivo-pluvial and three different pluvial classes are identified. We find that the characteristics of all six regime groups are severely affected by climate change in terms of the amplitude and timing of the monthly peaks and sinks. According to our simulations, the monthly peak of nival regimes will occur earlier in the season and the relative importance of rainfall increases towards the future. Pluvial regimes will become less balanced with higher normalized monthly discharge during January to March and a strong decrease during May to October. In comparison to the reference period, 8% of catchments will shift to another regime class until 2011–2040, whereas until 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, 23% and 43% will shift to another class, respectively.

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Climate Change Influences of Temporal and Spatial Drought Variation in the Andean High Mountain Basin

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos10090558 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (9) ◽

pp. 558 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Dario Zhiña ◽

Martín Montenegro ◽

Lisseth Montalván ◽

Daniel Mendoza ◽

Juan Contreras ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Return Periods ◽

Base Period ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

Climate change threatens the hydrological equilibrium with severe consequences for living beings. In that respect, considerable differences in drought features are expected, especially for mountain-Andean regions, which seem to be prone to climate change. Therefore, an urgent need for evaluation of such climate conditions arises; especially the effects at catchment scales, due to its implications over the hydrological services. However, to study future climate impacts at the catchment scale, the use of dynamically downscaled data in developing countries is a luxury due to the computational constraints. This study performed spatiotemporal future long-term projections of droughts in the upper part of the Paute River basin, located in the southern Andes of Ecuador. Using 10 km dynamically downscaled data from four global climate models, the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) index was used for drought characterization in the base period (1981–2005) and future period (2011–2070) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of CMIP5 project. Fitting a generalized-extreme-value (GEV) distribution, the change ratio of the magnitude, duration, and severity between the future and present was evaluated for return periods 10, 50, and 100 years. The results show that magnitude and duration dramatically decrease in the near future for the climate scenarios under analysis; these features presented a declining effect from the near to the far future. Additionally, the severity shows a general increment with respect to the base period, which is intensified with longer return periods; however, the severity shows a decrement for specific areas in the far future of RCP 4.5 and near future of RCP 8.5. This research adds knowledge to the evaluation of droughts in complex terrain in tropical regions, where the representation of convection is the main limitation of global climate models (GCMs). The results provide useful information for decision-makers supporting mitigating measures in future decades.

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Climate projections in the Hornsund area, Southern Spitsbergen

Polish Polar Research ◽

10.1515/popore-2016-0020 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 37 (3) ◽

pp. 379-402 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Marzena Osuch ◽

Tomasz Wawrzyniak

Keyword(s):

Air Temperature ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Reference Period ◽

Future Period ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

Abstract The aim of this study was to provide an estimation of climate variability in the Hornsund area in Southern Spitsbergen in the period 1976-2100. The climatic variables were obtained from the Polar-CORDEX initiative in the form of time series of daily air temperature and precipitation derived from four global circulation models (GCMs) following representative concentration pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. In the first stage of the analysis, simulations for the reference period from 1979 to 2005 were compared with observations at the Polish Polar Station Hornsund from the same period of time. In the second step, climatic projections were derived and monthly and annual means/sums were analysed as climatic indices. Following the standard methods of trend analysis, the changes of these indices over three time periods - the reference period 1976-2005, the near-future period 2021-2050, and far-future period 2071-2100 - were examined. The projections of air temperature were consistent. All analysed climate models simulated an increase of air temperature with time. Analyses of changes at a monthly scale indicated that the largest increases were estimated for winter months (more than 11°C for the far future using the RCP 8.5 scenario). The analyses of monthly and annual sums of precipitation also indicated increasing tendencies for changes with time, with the differences between mean monthly sums of precipitation for the near future and the reference period similar for each months. In the case of changes between far future and reference periods, the highest increases were projected for the winter months.

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Multi-Model Assessment of Streamflow Simulations under Climate and Anthropogenic Changes Exemplified in Two Indian River Basins

Water ◽

10.3390/w14020194 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 194

Author(s):

Anusha Somisetty ◽

Akshay Pachore ◽

Renji Remesan ◽

Rohini Kumar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Monsoon Season ◽

River Basins ◽

Low Flows ◽

Post Monsoon ◽

Post Monsoon Season ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Induced Changes ◽

The Ganges ◽

Near Future

This study aims to evaluate the climate- and human-induced impacts on two contrasting river basins in India, specifically, the Ganges and the Godavari. Monthly discharge simulations from global hydrological models (GHMs), run with and without human influence using CMIP5 projections under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, are utilized to address the scientific questions related to the quantification of the future impacts of climate change and the historical impacts of human activities on these river basins. The five state-of-the-art GHMs were considered and subsequently used to evaluate the human and climate change impacts on river discharges (seasonal mean discharge and extreme flows) during the pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Results showed that human impacts during the baseline period on long-term seasonal discharge in the Ganges and Godavari River basins for the pre-monsoon season are around 40% and 23%, respectively, and these impacts are stronger than the future climate change impact in the pre-monsoon season for the Ganges basin, whereas, for the Godavari basin, the same pattern is observed with some exceptions. The human impact in the course of the historical period on the pre-monsoon flows of both the Ganges and the Godavari are more significant than on the monsoon and post-monsoon flows. In the near future (2010–39) time slice, the impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Ganges is highest for the post-monsoon season (13.4%) under RCP 8.5 as compared to other seasons. For Godavari, in the near-future period, this impact is highest for the pre-monsoon season (18.2%) under RCP 2.6. Climate-induced changes in both of the basins during both the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons is observed to have a higher impact on future flows than direct human impact-induced changes to flow during the current period. High flows (31.4% and 19.9%) and low flows (51.2% and 36.8%) gain greater influence due to anthropogenic actions in the time of the pre-monsoon season compared to other times of year for the Ganges and Godavari basins, respectively. High flows for the Ganges during the near future time slice are most affected in the monsoon season (15.8%) under RCP 8.5 and, in the case of the Godavari, in the pre-monsoon season (18.4%) under the RCP 2.6 scenario. Low flows of the Ganges during the near-future period are most affected during the monsoon season (22.3%) and for the Godavari, low flows are affected most for the post-monsoon season (22.1%) under RCP 2.6. Uncertainty in the streamflow estimates is more pronounced for the Godavari basin compared to the Ganges basin. The findings of this study enhance our understanding of the natural and human-influenced flow regimes in these river basins, which helps the formation of future strategies, especially for inter-state and transboundary river management.

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PEMANFAATAN MODEL PROYEKSI IKLIM DAN SIMULASI TANAMAN DALAM PENGUATAN ADAPTASI SISTEM PERTANIAN PADI TERHADAP PENURUNAN PRODUKTIVITAS AKIBAT PERUBAHAN IKLIM: STUDI KASUS DI KABUPATEN SUMEDANG, JAWA BARAT

Informatika Pertanian ◽

10.21082/ip.v23n2.2014.p159-168 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 23 (2) ◽

pp. 159

Author(s):

Candradijaya A

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Climate Models ◽

Rice Yield ◽

Local Level ◽

Irrigation Scheduling ◽

Yield Reduction ◽

Planting Time ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

Despite the well-documented model-simulated adverse climate change impact on rice yields reported elsewhere, interventions to address the issue seem to be still limited, particularly at local level. This links to the uncertainty that entails to climate projection and its likely future impact, which varies across regions and climate models. The study analyzes climate change-induced rice yield reduction and the adequacy of current adaptations, to cope with a large range of impact under various climate models. Seventeen General Circulation Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climate change with scenarios of RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, combined with CROPWAT model for near-future (2011-2040) and far-future (2041-2070) projections. The study was conducted in November-December 2013, in Ujungjaya Subdistrict, the District of Sumedang. The output confirms yield reduction to occur in the near-future, to the extent variable across the GCMs. At the highest estimation, rice yield decreases by 32.00% and 31.81%, in comparison to baseline, for near-future under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, respectively. The reduction extends, with a slightly higher degree, to the far-future. The reduction is sensitive to variation in farming practices of the local farmers, in particular that in planting time and irrigation scheduling. The shifting of planting time to better match rainfall pattern reduces the rice yield by 12.95% for rainfed and 14.07% for the irrigated farming. Meanwhile, improved irrigation scheduling reduces the yield reduction by 16.16%. The findings provide valuable inputs for relevant authorities to understand the climate change-induced rice yield reduction, and to formalate intervention strategies for spesific-location adaptation.

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Susceptibility of Hydropower Generation to Climate Change: Karun III Dam Case Study

Water ◽

10.3390/w11051025 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (5) ◽

pp. 1025 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Maryam Beheshti ◽

Ali Heidari ◽

Bahram Saghafian

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Power Generation ◽

General Circulation ◽

Average Power ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Precipitation Trend ◽

Hydropower Generation ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

Climate change can cause serious problems for future hydropower plant projects and make them less economically justified. Changing precipitation patterns, rising temperatures, and abrupt snow melting affect river stream patterns and hydropower generation. Thus, study of climate change impacts during the useful life of a hydropower dam is essential and its outcome should be considered in assessing long-term dam feasibility. The aim of this research is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on future hydropower generation in the Karun-III dam located in the southwest region of Iran in two future tri-decadal periods: near (2020–2049) and far (2070–2099). Had-CM3 general circulation model predictions under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios were applied, and downscaled by a statistical downscaling model (SDSM). An artificial neural network (ANN) and HEC-ResSim reservoir model respectively simulated the rainfall–runoff process and hydropower generation. The projections showed that the Karun-III dam catchment under the two scenarios will generally become warmer and wetter with a slightly larger increase in annual precipitation in the near than the far future. Runoff followed the precipitation trend by increasing in both periods. The runoff peak also switched from April to March in both scenarios, due to higher winter precipitation, and earlier snowmelt, which was caused by temperature rise. According to both scenarios, hydropower generation increased more in the near future than in the far future. Annual average power generation increased gradually by 26.7–40.5% under A2 and by 17.4–29.3% under B2 in 2020–2049. In the far period, average power generation increased by 1.8–8.7% in A2 and by 10.5–22% under B2. In the near future, A2 showed energy deduction in the months of June and July, while B2 revealed a decrease in the months of April and June. Additionally, projections in the 2070–2099 under A2 exhibited energy reduction in the months of March through July, while B2 revealed a decrease in April through July. The framework utilized in this study can be exploited to analyze the susceptibility of hydropower production in the long term.

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Drivers of future water demand in Sydney, Australia: examining the contribution from population and climate change

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2020.230 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Adrian Barker ◽

Andrew Pitman ◽

Jason P. Evans ◽

Frank Spaninks ◽

Luther Uthayakumaran

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Demand ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Future Climate ◽

Present Climate ◽

Demand Model ◽

Stochastic Weather Generator ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future ◽

Sydney Australia

Abstract We examine the relative impact of population increases and climate change in affecting future water demand for Sydney, Australia. We use the Weather and Research Forecasting model, a water demand model and a stochastic weather generator to downscale four different global climate models for the present (1990–2010), near (2020–2040) and far (2060–2080) future. Projected climate change would increase median metered consumption, at 2019/2020 population levels, from around 484 GL under present climate to 484–494 GL under near future climate and 495–505 GL under far future climate. Population changes from 2014/2015 to 2024/2025 have a far larger impact, increasing median metered consumption from 457 to 508 GL under the present climate, 463 to 515 GL under near future climate and from 471 to 524 GL under far future climate. The projected changes in consumption are sensitive to the climate model used. Overall, while population growth is a far stronger driver of increasing water demand than climate change for Sydney, both act in parallel to reduce the time it would take for all storage to be exhausted. Failing to account for climate change would therefore lead to overconfidence in the reliability of Sydney's water supply.

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Exploring climate change impacts during first half of the 21st century on flow regime of the transboundary Kabul River in the Hindukush region

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2019.094 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 1521-1538

Author(s):

Muhammad Zia ur Rahman Hashmi ◽

Amjad Masood ◽

Haris Mushtaq ◽

Syed Ahsan Ali Bukhari ◽

Burhan Ahmad ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Flow Regime ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

River System ◽

Joint Strategy ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

High Level ◽

Flooding Events ◽

Kabul River ◽

Far Future

Abstract In transboundary river basins, climate change is being considered as a concern of higher degree than it is in other parts of the world. The Kabul River Basin, a sub-basin of the Indus River system shared by Pakistan and Afghanistan, is no exception. High level of sensitivity of its flow to temperature makes it imperative to analyse climate change impacts on the flow regime of this important river for efficient water resources management on both sides of the border. The snowmelt runoff model integrated with remote sensing snow cover product MODIS was selected to simulate daily discharges. Future projections were generated for two selected time slices, 2011–2030 (near future) and 2031–2050 (far future), based on output of an ensemble of four GCMs' RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Analysis shows a significant temperature increase under both scenarios in the near and far future at a high-altitude region of the basin which mostly receives snowfall that is also found increasing over time. Consequently, it causes a change in the flow regime and more frequent and heavier flooding events, thus calling for a joint strategy of the two riparian countries to mitigate the anticipated impacts in the basin for safety of people and overall prosperity.

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The Impact of Global Climate Change to Climate Condition of Bengkulu Watershed, Indonesia

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/202132508010 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 325 ◽

pp. 08010

Author(s):

Gita Ivana Suci Lestari Faski ◽

Ignasius Loyola Setyawan Purnama

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Global Climate ◽

Actual Evapotranspiration ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Thiessen Polygon ◽

Temperature Potential ◽

The Impact

Global climate change that occurred in this century can affect the pattern of rain and increase in temperature on earth. This study aims to determine and analyze the increase in rainfall, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration and actual evapotranspiration in the Bengkulu watershed. For this reason, the regional rainfall is calculated using the Thiessen Polygon, the mean air temperature of the watershed based on the median elevation, potential evapotranspiration using the Thornthwaite Method and actual evapotranspiration using the basis of the difference in rainfall to potential evapotranspiration. The results showed that every year there was an increase in rainfall, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration and actual evapotranspiration in the Bengkulu Watershed. In the 2009-2013 period, the average annual rainfall of 3,581 mm increased to 3,641 mm in the 2014-2018 period. For air temperature, the average monthly air temperature in the Bengkulu Watershed for the 2009-2013 period was 25.8°C, while the air temperature in the 2014-2018 period was 26.1°C. This means that in a period of 5 years there is an increase in temperature of 0.3°C. Furthermore, due to the increase in air temperature, there was an increase in the average monthly potential evapotranspiration from the 2009-2013 period to the 2014-2018 period, namely from 1,493 mm to 1,537 mm, while for actual evapotranspiration there was an increase from 1,486 mm to 1,518 mm.

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Winter tourism and climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation

10.5194/tc-2018-253 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Pierre Spandre ◽

Hugues François ◽

Deborah Verfaillie ◽

Marc Pons ◽

Matthieu Vernay ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Reference Period ◽

Winter Tourism ◽

French Alps ◽

Ski Resorts ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Alps ◽

Natural Snow ◽

Near Future

Abstract. Climate change is increasingly regarded as a threat for winter tourism due to the combined effect of decreasing natural snow amounts and decreasing suitable periods for snowmaking. The present work investigated the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in France (Alps and Pyrenees), Spain and Andorra under past and future conditions using state-of-the-art snowpack modelling and climate projections. The natural snow reliability (i.e. without snowmaking) elevation showed a significant spatial variability in the reference period (1986–2005) and to be highly impacted by the on-going climate change. The technical reliability (i.e. including snowmaking) is projected to rise by 200 m to 300 m in the Alps and by 400 m to 600 m in the Pyrenees in the near future (2030–2050) compared to the reference period for all climate scenarios. While 99 % of ski lift infrastructures are reliable in the reference period thanks to snowmaking, a significant fraction (14 % to 25 %) may be considered "at risk" in the near future. Beyond the mid century, climate projections highly depend on the scenario with steady conditions compared to the near future (RCP 2.6) or continuous decrease of snow reliability (RCP 8.5). According to the "business as usual" scenario (RCP 8.5), there would no longer be any snow reliable ski resorts based on natural snow conditions in French Alps and Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) at the end of the century (2080–2100). Only 24 resorts are projected to remain technically reliable, all being located in the Alps.

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