Probabilistic Assessment of Reliability and Risk Values by Certification Results

2020 ◽  
pp. 52-67
Author(s):  
Vladimir A. Lapin ◽  
Erken S. Aldakhov ◽  
S. D. Aldakhov ◽  
A. B. Ali
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Seismic Resistance ◽  
Probabilistic Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Estimates ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Reduce Risk ◽  
First Time ◽  
Structural Solutions ◽  
Practical Recommendations

For the first time in Almaty full passport of apartment stock of multiapartment building was carried out. The structure of the housing stock was revealed with the allocation of groups of buildings according to structural solutions and assessment of their seismic resistance. Based on the results of certification, quantitative estimates of failure probability values for different types of buildings were obtained. Formulas for estimation of quantitative value of seismic risk are obtained. The number of deaths in the estimated zem-shakes was estimated. The results of the assessments will be used for practical recommendations to reduce risk and expected losses in possible earthquakes.

Probabilistic estimation of reliability values for large-panel buildings based on the results of certification

2021 ◽  
pp. 54-71
Author(s):  
Vladimir A. Lapin ◽  
Yerkin S. Aldakhov ◽  
Serik D. Aldakhov ◽  
Ali Alimzhan
Keyword(s):  
Housing Stock ◽  
Entire Group ◽  
Probabilistic Estimation ◽  
Quantitative Estimates ◽  
Large Panel ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Special Studies ◽  
First Time ◽  
The City ◽  
Practical Recommendations

Under the agreement with the city authorities, in 2017-2018, for the first time, a full certification of the housing stock of apartment buildings was carried out. 2658 multi-storey large-panel buildings of various storeys from 2 to 9 floors were entered into the database. Based on the results of certification, quantitative estimates of the probability of failure and reliability for large-panel buildings of various types were obtained for the first time. The frequency of earthquakes is taken into account according to the current "Map of seismic zoning of the Republic of Kazakhstan". The reliability value is obtained for the entire group of large-panel buildings. It was revealed that large-panel buildings with the first flexible or brick floor are not earthquakeresistant. The results of the reliability and failure estimates are used for practical recommendations to reduce the risk and expected losses in possible earthquakes. It is proposed to strengthen largepanel buildings with the first flexible or brick floor (33 buildings). The method of strengthening should be determined by special studies.

From Earthquake Geophysical Measures to Insurance Premium: A Generalised Method for the Evaluation of Seismic Risk, with Application to Italy’s Housing Stock

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Riccardo Cesari ◽  
Leandro D’Aurizio
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Insurance Premium ◽  
New Technique ◽  
Probabilistic Assessment ◽  
Natural Catastrophes ◽  
A New Technique ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Housing Units

Abstract Following the increasing necessity of quantitative measures for the impact of natural catastrophes, this paper proposes a new technique for a probabilistic assessment of seismic risk by using publicly available data on the earthquakes that have occurred in Italy. We implement an insurance-oriented methodology to produce a new map of the seismic risk and to evaluate, under various hypotheses, the costs of insuring all the Italian housing units against it. The model is compared with two main privately developed models, well known in the reinsurance industry, providing fairly similar results.

Probabilistic estimation of reliability values for frame buildings based on the results of certification taking into account tectonic faults

2021 ◽  
pp. 49-60
Author(s):  
Vladimir A. Lapin ◽  
Yerkin S. Aldakhov ◽  
Serik D. Aldakhov ◽  
Alimzhan Ali
Keyword(s):  
Housing Stock ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Probabilistic Estimation ◽  
Tectonic Faults ◽  
Earthquake Resistant ◽  
Frame Buildings ◽  
The Republic ◽  
First Time ◽  
The City ◽  
Practical Recommendations

With budget funding for two years in 2017-2018, the total certification of the housing stock of multi-apartment buildings was carried out for the first time. A total of 8,171 buildings were entered into the database, of which 1,847 are multi-storey frame buildings of various storeys and design solutions. It is established that 1628 frame buildings are earthquake-resistant, 59-buildings with the first flexible floor are non-earthquake-resistant and 160-are located in the zone of tectonic faults on the territory of the city. The hypothesis is accepted that buildings located in the zone of tectonic faults will be destroyed. Under these conditions, quantitative estimates of the failure probability and reliability values for frame buildings of various types were obtained for the first time. The frequency of earthquakes is taken into account according to the current "Map of seismic zoning of the Republic of Kazakhstan". The results of the reliability and failure estimates are used for practical recommendations to reduce the risk and expected losses in possible earthquakes. Total reinforcement of frame buildings with the first flexible floors (59 buildings) is proposed. However, the conditional probability of failure for a group of residential frame buildings will remain nonzero. The method of amplification should be determined based on the results of experimental studies.

Proactive Actions Based on a Resilient Approach to Urban Seismic Risk Mitigation

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 321-335
Author(s):  
Marco Vona
Keyword(s):  
Urban Planning ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Housing System ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Natural Risk ◽  
Seismic Risk Mitigation

Background: Seismic risk mitigation is an important issue in earthquake-prone countries, and needs to be solved in those complex communities governed by complex processes, where urban planning, socioeconomic dynamics, and, often, the need to preserve cultural assets are present simultaneously. In recent years, due to limited financial resources, mitigation activities have often been limited to post-earthquake events, and only a few in periods of inactivity, particularly in urban planning. At this point, a significant change in point of view is necessary. Methods: The seismic risk mitigation (and more generally, natural risk mitigation) must be considered as the main topic in urban planning and in the governance of communities. In fact, in several recent earthquakes, significant socioeconomic losses have been caused by the low or lack of resilience of the communities. This is mainly due to the high vulnerability of private buildings, in particular, housing units. Results: Therefore, in recent years, several studies have been conducted on the seismic resilience of communities. However, significant improvements are still needed for the resilience assessment of the housing stock, both qualitatively and quantitatively. In this study, which is applied to the housing system, a proposal regarding a change in urban planning and emergency management tools based on the concept of resilience is reported. As a first application, a case study in Italy is considered. Conclusion: The proposal is focused on defining and quantifying the improvement of the resilience of the communities and this must be obtained by modifying the current Civil Protection plan. New tools are based on a new resilience community plan by encompassing urban planning tools, resilient mitigation strategies, and consequently, emergency management planning.

The Small State Challenge

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack Corbett ◽  
Wouter Veenendaal
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Politics ◽  
Institutional Design ◽  
Small States ◽  
Small State ◽  
Informal Politics ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Approach Method ◽  
Key Terms ◽  
First Time

Chapter 1 introduces the main arguments of the book; outlines the approach, method, and data; defines key terms; and provides a chapter outline. Global theories of democratization have systematically excluded small states, which make up roughly 20 per cent of countries. These cases debunk mainstream theories of why democratization succeeds or fails. This book brings small states into the comparative politics fold for the first time. It is organized thematically, with each chapter tackling one of the main theories from the democratization literature. Different types of data are examined—case studies and other documentary evidence, interviews and observation. Following an abductive approach, in addition to examining the veracity of existing theory, each chapter is also used to build an explanation of how democracy is practiced in small states. Specifically, we highlight how small state politics is shaped by personalization and informal politics, rather than formal institutional design.

scholarly journals MiRNA Expression in Neuroendocrine Neoplasms of Frequent Localizations

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Alexandra Korotaeva ◽  
Danzan Mansorunov ◽  
Natalya Apanovich ◽  
Anna Kuzevanova ◽  
Alexander Karpukhin
Keyword(s):  
Mirna Expression ◽  
Malignant Tumors ◽  
Neuroendocrine Neoplasms ◽  
Specific Expression ◽  
Clinical Biomarkers ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Functional Features ◽  
First Time ◽  
Potential Biomarkers

Neuroendocrine neoplasms (NEN) are infrequent malignant tumors of a neuroendocrine nature that arise in various organs. They occur most frequently in the lungs, intestines, stomach and pancreas. Molecular diagnostics and prognosis of NEN development are highly relevant. The role of clinical biomarkers can be played by microRNAs (miRNAs). This work is devoted to the analysis of data on miRNA expression in NENs. For the first time, a search for specificity or a community of their functional characteristics in different types of NEN was carried out. Their properties as biomarkers were also analyzed. To date, more than 100 miRNAs have been characterized as differentially expressed and significant for the development of NEN tumors. Only about 10% of the studied miRNAs are expressed in several types of NEN; differential expression of the remaining 90% was found only in tumors of specific localizations. A significant number of miRNAs have been identified as potential biomarkers. However, only a few miRNAs have values that characterized their quality as markers. The analysis demonstrates the predominant specific expression of miRNA in each studied type of NEN. This indicates that miRNA’s functional features are predominantly influenced by the tissue in which they are formed.

scholarly journals Second-order neutrosophic boundary-value problem

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandip Moi ◽  
Suvankar Biswas ◽  
Smita Pal(Sarkar)
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Boundary Value Problem ◽  
Differential Calculus ◽  
Boundary Value ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Different Types ◽  
First Time

AbstractIn this article, some properties of neutrosophic derivative and neutrosophic numbers have been presented. This properties have been used to develop the neutrosophic differential calculus. By considering different types of first- and second-order derivatives, different kind of systems of derivatives have been developed. This is the first time where a second-order neutrosophic boundary-value problem has been introduced with different types of first- and second-order derivatives. Some numerical examples have been examined to explain different systems of neutrosophic differential equation.

scholarly journals Interactions between an Associative Amphiphilic Block Polyelectrolyte and Surfactants in Water: Effect of Charge Type on Solution Properties and Aggregation

Polymers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1729
Author(s):  
Patrizio Raffa
Keyword(s):  
Surface Tension ◽  
Self Assembly ◽  
Interaction Model ◽  
Industrial Applications ◽  
Molecular Organization ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Solution Rheology ◽  
Interesting Class ◽  
First Time

The study of interactions between polyelectrolytes (PE) and surfactants is of great interest for both fundamental and applied research. These mixtures can represent, for example, models of self-assembly and molecular organization in biological systems, but they are also relevant in industrial applications. Amphiphilic block polyelectrolytes represent an interesting class of PE, but their interactions with surfactants have not been extensively explored so far, most studies being restricted to non-associating PE. In this work, interactions between an anionic amphiphilic triblock polyelectrolyte and different types of surfactants bearing respectively negative, positive and no charge, are investigated via surface tension and solution rheology measurements for the first time. It is evidenced that the surfactants have different effects on viscosity and surface tension, depending on their charge type. Micellization of the surfactant is affected by the presence of the polymer in all cases; shear viscosity of polymer solutions decreases in presence of the same charge or nonionic surfactants, while the opposite charge surfactant causes precipitation. This study highlights the importance of the charge type, and the role of the associating hydrophobic block in the PE structure, on the solution behavior of the mixtures. Moreover, a possible interaction model is proposed, based on the obtained data.

scholarly journals AB0243 CONSIDERING THE COMBINATION OF TWO BIOLOGICS IN CASE OF FAILURE OF THE MONOTHERAPY IN JUVENILE ONSET RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1147.1-1147
Author(s):  
A. Haddouche ◽  
K. Ait Bellabas ◽  
W. F. Hamrani ◽  
S. Sahraoui ◽  
R. Fatma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽  
Alternative Therapy ◽  
Biologic Therapies ◽  
Disease Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs ◽  
Antirheumatic Drugs ◽  
Juvenile Onset ◽  
Multiple Treatment ◽  
Tnf Blocker ◽  
Different Types ◽  
First Time

Background:The management of rheumatoid arthritis refractory to conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (csDMARDs) is currently well codified and includes different types of biologics and even targeted sDMARDs. A rotation of biologic therapies is recommended in order to better control the disease.Methods:We report the case of a 20-year-old patient followed in our hospital for the management of a deforming and erosive seropositive rheumatoid arthritis (FR +, ACPA +) with a juvenile onset at the age of 8 years. The diagnosis of an immunopositive polyarticular form of JIA was retained in 2010 (9 years old); the patient was treated with methotrexate (MTX) at a dose of 10 mg per week and methylprednisolone at doses varying between 4 and 10 mg per day. Following the failure of MTX, etanercept was introduced for 6 months without success, followed by tocilizumab in 2012 at a dose of 8mg/kg/month for a year, without good response. In 2014, a course of rituximab (RTX) at a dose of 2 shots of 500mg, 2 weeks apart was prescribed followed 9 months later by etanercept at a dose of 50 mg a week for 3 years then by adalimumab (40mg/ week) because of the multiple treatment failures.In 2018, the repetition of RTX at a dose of 1g, renewed 15 days later, improved the patient for only 3 months. Then, a combination of two biologics, namely RTX (2 x 1g, 15 days apart) and adalimumab 1 month later (40mg / week) was received by the patient with a good response at 3 months. The latter was maintained for 7 months even after stopping the adalimumab following confinement for COVID-19. In September 2020, flares occurred and the adalimumab (ADA) has been delivered but without success during 3 months, stopped later for a benign form of COVID-19 (15 months after RTX). In January 2021, the association RTX + ADA was given again and we hope that it will be as effective as the first prescription.Results:The clinical and biological severity of our patient’s rheumatoid arthritis led us to give a combination of two biological treatments. Indeed, we do not have other therapeutic classes to deliver to her, that encouraged us to rotate between all the available biological therapies in our country. The combination of a CD20 inhibitor (RTX) with a TNF blocker (ADA) was safe and made possible, for the first time, the achievement of clinical and biological remission during 7 months, even after stopping the TNF blocker. Greenwald et al. reported the safety of the combination of RTX + TNF inhibitors in a randomized clinical trial in 51 patients. Its efficacy, a secondary goal of the study, was suggested at 24 weeks by the percentage of ACR 20 and ACR 50 responses that was greater than in the RTX placebo group.Conclusion:The combination of RTX with a TNF blocker can be a real alternative therapy in rheumatoid arthritis with failure to a biological monotherapy.Disclosure of Interests:None declared

The habits and habitats of the opisthobranch molluscs of the British Solomon Islands

1969 ◽  
Vol 255 (800) ◽  
pp. 541-548 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural History ◽  
Solomon Islands ◽  
Gut Contents ◽  
Numerical Evidence ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Opisthobranch Molluscs ◽  
First Time ◽  
Reef Formation

Often bizarre in shape and gaudily coloured, the opisthobranchs of the tropical IndoPacific have always been attractive subjects for the specialist worker and for writers of popular natural history. There is certainly no lack of papers describing their anatomy and systematics (Marcus & Burch (1965) give a fairly full bibliography), but only in those by Risbec (1928 a, b , 1951, 1953) are there descriptions of where or how they live and his statements are brief and rather vague. I collected opisthobranchs so as to record them for the British Solomon Islands for the first time and, whenever possible, I noted their habits and habitats. My observations on gut contents are rather scanty as I did not wish to damage any of the few specimens of each species collected. From an examination of ten different types of reef formation I discovered that opisthobranchs are common in only two places; (1) the crest of a semi-exposed reef where algae occur in pools, and (2) the flat of a sheltered or semi-sheltered reef. At each of these sites several distinct habitats can be distinguished. Unfortunately my recognition of these habitats is not supported by strong numerical evidence as none of the 55 species occurred in large numbers.

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