Das Potenzial der Strategischen Vorausschau zur Reduktion kognitiver Verzerrungen

2019 ◽  
Vol 60 (3) ◽  
pp. 19-22
Author(s):  
Marion A. Weissenberger-Eibl ◽  
Tamara Huber
Keyword(s):  
Information Processing ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Group Composition ◽  
Human Information Processing ◽  
Future Developments ◽  
Strategic Foresight ◽  
Human Thinking ◽  
World Information ◽  
The One

In order to secure a long-term competitive advantage in an increasingly complex world, information gathering, evaluation and exploitation is vital for uncovering future developments and dynamics in the corporate environment. The Strategic Foresight methods systematize the process of information processing, allowing a targeted look into the future. The benefits of such methods depend largely on the individuals who perform them. They may be subject to dysfunctional ways of thinking and behaving that evolves from mental models and the restricted ability of human information processing for coping with complexity and reflecting reality. On the one hand, the methods of Strategic Foresight contribute to the reduction of human dysfunctions, so called cognitive biases, by the approach design. On the other hand, the group composition of the employees involved and their degree of heterogeneity also have the potential to minimize biases. Applying approaches from cognitive science for human thinking in the field of Strategic Foresight outlines the contribution of foresight methods for reducing individual dysfunctions.

Confirmation and Cognitive Bias in Design Cognition

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory M. Hallihan ◽  
Hyunmin Cheong ◽  
L. H. Shu
Keyword(s):  
Information Processing ◽  
Analogical Reasoning ◽  
Design Research ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Confirmation Bias ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Human Information Processing ◽  
Concept Generation ◽  
Design Cognition ◽  
Concept Evaluation

The desire to better understand design cognition has led to the application of literature from psychology to design research, e.g., in learning, analogical reasoning, and problem solving. Psychological research on cognitive heuristics and biases offers another relevant body of knowledge for application. Cognitive biases are inherent biases in human information processing, which can lead to suboptimal reasoning. Cognitive heuristics are unconscious rules utilized to enhance the efficiency of information processing and are possible antecedents of cognitive biases. This paper presents two studies that examined the role of confirmation bias, which is a tendency to seek and interpret evidence in order to confirm existing beliefs. The results of the first study, a protocol analysis involving novice designers engaged in a biomimetic design task, indicate that confirmation bias is present during concept generation and offer additional insights into the influence of confirmation bias in design. The results of the second study, a controlled experiment requiring participants to complete a concept evaluation task, suggest that decision matrices are effective tools to reduce confirmation bias during concept evaluation.

Strategic Foresight Tools for Planning and Policy

2021 ◽  
pp. 775-797
Author(s):  
Barbara Jane Holland
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Good Predictor ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Strategic Thinking ◽  
Policy And Strategy ◽  
Strategic Foresight ◽  
Structured Approach ◽  
Blind Spots

Today, companies can no longer assume that the past will be a good predictor of the future; Those that fail to prepare for radically new possibilities may face sudden irrelevance. Strategic Foresight, aka, Futures thinking, provides a structured approach enabling people and organizations to overcome cognitive biases and think more realistically about change. It helps to uncover blind spots, imagine radically different futures, and improve decision-making. Climate disruption, artificial intelligence, and automation are quickly transforming the landscape for business and sustainability. This chapter will review the Strategic Foresight tools used to embed long-term strategic thinking and planning concerning policy and strategy.

Subject-Task Interaction in Selective Attention Research

1973 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 259-262
Author(s):  
Steven Jay Gross ◽  
Samuel F. Moore ◽  
Stephen L. Stern
Keyword(s):  
Information Processing ◽  
Individual Differences ◽  
Selective Attention ◽  
Individual Difference ◽  
The Other ◽  
Human Information Processing ◽  
Task Variables ◽  
The One ◽  
The Individual

Two methods of investigating human information processing, the one focusing on the manipulation of experimental tasks and the other emphasizing individual differences, were compared. The design utilized the experimental tasks of Treisman and Riley (1969) while examining for individual differences on the basis of Witkin's field-articulation dimension. The findings of Treisman and Riley were replicated, while no differences were found among Ss categorized on the individual-difference dimension, suggesting that task variables were most important in performance requiring selective attention.

Radioimmunotherapy for treatment of acute myeloid leukaemia and myelodysplastic syndrome

2005 ◽  
Vol 44 (03) ◽  
pp. 107-117
Author(s):  
R. G. Meyer ◽  
W. Herr ◽  
A. Helisch ◽  
P. Bartenstein ◽  
I. Buchmann
Keyword(s):  
Acute Myeloid Leukaemia ◽  
Myeloid Leukaemia ◽  
Primary Tumour ◽  
The Other ◽  
Haematopoietic Stem Cell ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Primary Reduction ◽  
The One ◽  
Acute Myeloid

SummaryThe prognosis of patients with acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) has improved considerably by introduction of aggressive consolidation chemotherapy and haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (SCT). Nevertheless, only 20-30% of patients with AML achieve long-term diseasefree survival after SCT. The most common cause of treatment failure is relapse. Additionally, mortality rates are significantly increased by therapy-related causes such as toxicity of chemotherapy and complications of SCT. Including radioimmunotherapies in the treatment of AML and myelodyplastic syndrome (MDS) allows for the achievement of a pronounced antileukaemic effect for the reduction of relapse rates on the one hand. On the other hand, no increase of acute toxicity and later complications should be induced. These effects are important for the primary reduction of tumour cells as well as for the myeloablative conditioning before SCT.This paper provides a systematic and critical review of the currently used radionuclides and immunoconjugates for the treatment of AML and MDS and summarizes the literature on primary tumour cell reductive radioimmunotherapies on the one hand and conditioning radioimmunotherapies before SCT on the other hand.

Hidden “holes” in the capital of banks and the supply of credit to the real sector of economy

2018 ◽  
pp. 49-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. Mamonov
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
The Other ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Capital Management ◽  
Loan Loss ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The One

Our analysis documents that the existence of hidden “holes” in the capital of not yet failed banks - while creating intertemporal pressure on the actual level of capital - leads to changing of maturity of loans supplied rather than to contracting of their volume. Long-term loans decrease, whereas short-term loans rise - and, what is most remarkably, by approximately the same amounts. Standardly, the higher the maturity of loans the higher the credit risk and, thus, the more loan loss reserves (LLP) banks are forced to create, increasing the pressure on capital. Banks that already hide “holes” in the capital, but have not yet faced with license withdrawal, must possess strong incentives to shorten the maturity of supplied loans. On the one hand, it raises the turnovers of LLP and facilitates the flexibility of capital management; on the other hand, it allows increasing the speed of shifting of attracted deposits to loans to related parties in domestic or foreign jurisdictions. This enlarges the potential size of ex post revealed “hole” in the capital and, therefore, allows us to assume that not every loan might be viewed as a good for the economy: excessive short-term and insufficient long-term loans can produce the source for future losses.

Interrelationships between municipal spatial policy strategy and airport operation and development. Lodz Airport case study

2018 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-79
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Nikorowicz-Zatorska
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Cultural Development ◽  
The Other ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Spatial Management ◽  
The One ◽  
Surrounding Areas

Abstract The present paper focuses on spatial management regulations in order to carry out investment in the field of airport facilities. The construction, upgrades, and maintenance of airports falls within the area of responsibility of local authorities. This task poses a great challenge in terms of organisation and finances. On the one hand, an active airport is a municipal landmark and drives local economic, social and cultural development, and on the other, the scale of investment often exceeds the capabilities of local authorities. The immediate environment of the airport determines its final use and prosperity. The objective of the paper is to review legislation that affects airports and the surrounding communities. The process of urban planning in Lodz and surrounding areas will be presented as a background to the problem of land use management in the vicinity of the airport. This paper seeks to address the following questions: if and how airports have affected urban planning in Lodz, does the land use around the airport prevent the development of Lodz Airport, and how has the situation changed over the time? It can be assumed that as a result of lack of experience, land resources and size of investments on one hand and legislative dissonance and peculiar practices on the other, aviation infrastructure in Lodz is designed to meet temporary needs and is characterised by achieving short-term goals. Cyclical problems are solved in an intermittent manner and involve all the municipal resources, so there’s little left to secure long-term investments.

Aspects of the Evolution of the Romanian Tourists’ Preferences Concerning the Domestic Tourist Destinations

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
Aniela Bălăcescu ◽  
Radu Șerban Zaharia
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Model ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Tourism Management ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
On Line ◽  
The One ◽  
Long Term Studies

Abstract Tourist services represent a category of services in which the inseparability of production and consumption, the inability to be storable, the immateriality, and last but not least non-durability, induces in tourism management a number of peculiarities and difficulties. Under these circumstances the development of medium-term strategies involves long-term studies regarding on the one hand the developments and characteristics of the demand, and on the other hand the tourist potential analysis at regional and local level. Although in the past 20 years there has been tremendous growth of on-line booking made by household users, the tour operators agencies as well as those with sales activity continue to offer the specific services for a large number of tourists, that number, in the case of domestic tourism, increased by 1.6 times in case of the tour operators and by 4.44 times in case of the agencies with sales activity. At the same time, there have been changes in the preferences of tourists regarding their holiday destinations in Romania. Started on these considerations, paper based on a logistic model, examines the evolution of the probabilities and scores corresponding to the way the Romanian tourists spend their holidays on the types of tourism agencies, actions and tourist areas in Romania.

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