scholarly journals EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF STOCK RETURNS AND VOLATILITY: EVIDENCE FROM ASIAN STOCK MARKETS

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 808-829 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nawaz AHMAD ◽  
Rizwan RAHEEM AHMED ◽  
Jolita VVEINHARDT ◽  
Dalia STREIMIKIENE
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Graphical Representation ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Preliminary Examination ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Time Period

The objective of this research isto measure and examine volatilities among important stock markets of Asia and to ascertain a causal relation between volatility and stock returns. For this purpose six markets KSE100 (Karachi, Pakistan), BSE Sensex (Mumbai, India), NIKKEI 225 (Tokyo, Japan), Hang Seng (Hong Kong), Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) (Shanghai, China) and KOSPI (Seoul, South Korea) were considered. Stock market indices comprise of daily data from the period January 2002 to December 2009. The graphical representation of time series shows the preliminary examination of stock behaviors. The analysis shows the high correlation and heteroskedastic trend (volatility) among the stock markets in selected time period. After preliminary analysis the formal descriptive method of mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation have been applied for measuring and ranking purposes. The results show that KOSPI has the highest average annual return of 12.67% and followed by BSE with 11.61%, whereas, KSE 100 has the least annual average returns of 9.31%. The highest volatility coefficient of 3.097 has been observed in Hang Seng (Hong Kong) followed by 2.87 in Nikkei (Tokyo). However, the KSE 100 observed the lowest volatility coefficient of 2.078. Bartlett’s test is applied for the inferential analysis to investigate whether the equality of volatility is the same in each market return. Finally, GARCH (1, 1) model is applied which concludes a significant ARCH (1) and GARCH (1) effects and confirms all markets’ returns are statistically significant since p < 0.01 and their Long Run Average Variances (LRAV) range from 1.52% to 2.54% for KSE100 Index and Shanghai Stock Exchange respectively.

scholarly journals CHINA’S MARKET AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC FACTORS

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 58-61
Author(s):  
Mária Bohdalová ◽  
Michal Greguš
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Chinese Market

The aim of this paper is to analyze the causal relation between the Chinese stock market and the US market. We investigate the dependence structures between two Chinese stock markets (Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP) and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSCEI) markets) and global economic factors such as SP 500 stock markets, volatility index VIX, crude oil and gold. We have used data based on a period from January 2000 to June 2017. The aim of this paper is to explore the causal link between the Chinese market and global economic factors. We have discovered asymmetric causal relations between stock returns and global risk factors based on a quantile regression.

scholarly journals Does the Croatian Stock Market Have Seasonal Affective Disorder?

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Tihana Škrinjarić ◽  
Branka Marasović ◽  
Boško Šego
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Affective Disorder ◽  
Seasonal Affective Disorder ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Winter Solstice ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Depressive Episodes

This paper explores mood anomalies, specifically the seasonal affective disorder (SAD) effect on the Zagreb Stock Exchange (ZSE). SAD is defined as a syndrome of depressive episodes in human behavior due to the changing of the season. Thus, the motive of this research is to gain better insights into the investors’ sentiment regarding SAD effects. The purpose of the research is to observe how investors’ sentiment affects the return and risk series on ZSE and if this could be exploitable. Using daily data on stock market return CROBEX for the period January 2010—February 2021, SAD effects are tested to explore if seasonal changes affect the stock returns and risk. Besides the SAD variable in the model, some control variables are included as well: Monday, tax, and COVID-19 effect. The results indicate that SAD effects exist on ZSE, even with controlling for mentioned effects; and asymmetries around winter solstice exist. Implications of such findings can be found in simulating trading strategies, which could incorporate such information to gain profits. Limitations of the research focus on one market, observing static parameters of the estimated models, and observing simple trading strategies. Thus, future research should focus on international diversification possibilities, time-varying models, and fully exploring the exploitation possibilities of such findings.

COMPARING THE IMPACTS OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ACROSS STOCK MARKETS

2015 ◽  
Vol 77 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siok Kun Sek ◽  
Zhan Jian Ng ◽  
Wai Mun Har
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

We conduct empirical analyses on comparing the spillover effects of oil price shocks on the volatility of stock returns between oil importing and oil exporting countries. In particular, we seek to study how the nature of oil price shocks differs due to the oil dependency factor and how the stock markets react to such shocks. Applying the multivariate GARCH-BEKK(1,1) model, our results detect spillover effects between crude oil price and stock returns for all countries. The short run persistencies of shocks are smaller but the persistencies of shocks are very high in the long run. The results hold for both groups of countries. The results imply larger spillover effect from oil price shock into stock market in the oil importing countries.

scholarly journals Could Mergers Become More Sustainable? A Study of the Stock Exchange Mergers of NASDAQ and OMX

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 8581
Author(s):  
Wenjing Xie ◽  
João Paulo Vieito ◽  
Ephraim Clark ◽  
Wing-Keung Wong
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
International Treaties ◽  
National Policies ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Investors

This study investigates whether the merger of NASDAQ and OMX could reduce the portfolio diversification possibilities for stock market investors and whether it is necessary to implement national policies and international treaties for the sustainable development of financial markets. Our study is very important because some players in the stock markets have not yet realized that stock exchanges, during the last decades, have moved from government-owned or mutually-owned organizations to private companies, and, with several mergers having occurred, the market is tending gradually to behave like a monopoly. From our analysis, we conclude that increased volatility and reduced diversification opportunities are the results of an increase in the long-run comovement between each pair of indices in Nordic and Baltic stock markets (Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) and NASDAQ after the merger. We also find that the merger tends to improve the error-correction mechanism for NASDAQ so that it Granger-causes OMX, but OMX loses predictive power on NASDAQ after the merger. We conclude that the merger of NASDAQ and OMX reduces the diversification possibilities for stock market investors and our findings provide evidence to support the argument that it is important to implement national policies and international treaties for the sustainable development of financial markets.

Price Transmission and Market Openness

1998 ◽  
Vol 01 (02) ◽  
pp. 215-232
Author(s):  
Lifan Wu ◽  
Asani Sarkar
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
New York Stock Exchange ◽  
Response Patterns ◽  
Price Behavior ◽  
York Stock Exchange

This paper studies the degree of impact of stock prices listed on the New York Stock Exchange and Tokyo Stock Exchange regarding price behavior in Asian stock markets. Our evidence shows that the pattern and magnitude of impact varies. Returns in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Malaysia are more sensitive than those in Taiwan, Korea and Thailand. The response patterns in the Asian markets suggest that foreign influence is significantly correlated to the degree of market openness.

Financial instability, integration and volatility of emerging South Asian stock markets

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rakesh Kumar ◽  
Raj S. Dhankar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
International Market ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Financial Instability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the short- and long-run spillover effect of international financial instability on emerging South Asian stock markets. The paper also investigates the financial integration regionally. Design/methodology/approach Granger causality test is used for short-run causal relations. Since results of preliminary test highlight the significant autocorrelations in stock returns, GARCH class models with extreme shocks in international financial market are utilized to test the long-run spillover impact on stock returns. Findings Results indicate significant short- and long-run spillover impacts of international financial instability on the stock returns. They highlight the significant co-integration of South Asian stock markets with the international market. Significant correlations in stock returns and volatility reveal the degree of regional integration to be high between India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Research limitations/implications Business, political and market conditions of South Asian stock markets are fundamentally different from each other. These economies were liberalized at different time, which in turn may affect the degree of integration with international equity markets and regionally alike. Practical implications Financial liberalization has linked the South Asian stock markets to the rest of the world. Stock prices move in the same line with the emergence of global expected and unexpected economic shocks. The benefits that arise from the diversification of funds will be eradicated in the long run. Investors with long investment horizons will not actually benefit from portfolio diversification in South Asian equity markets. The Bangladesh stock market does not respond to volatility in international market in the short run and may be a good destination for short-term investment. Originality/value Pioneer efforts are made by utilizing a novel approach with the use of net volatility change in world financial instability for measuring the short- and long-run impacts. Given the emergence of South Asian stock markets, new insights into their vulnerability to world financial shocks provide interesting findings for portfolio diversification.

scholarly journals Reaction of stock market returns to COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown policy: evidence from Nigerian firms stock returns

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Isiaka Akande Raifu ◽  
Terver Theophilus Kumeka ◽  
Alarudeen Aminu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Policy Shocks

AbstractGiven the effects COVID-19 pandemic on the financial sectors across the world, this study examined the reaction of stock returns of 201 firms listed in the Nigerian Stock Exchange to the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown policy. We deployed both Pooled OLS and Panel VAR as estimation methods. Generally, the results from POLS show the stock market returns of the Nigerian firms reacted negatively more to the global COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths than the domestic COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths and lockdown policy. The results of the impulse response functions revealed that the effects of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths and lockdown policy shocks on stock returns oscillate between negative and positive before the stock market returns converge to the equilibrium in the long run. The FEVD results showed that growth in the COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths and lockdown policy shocks explained little variations in stock market returns. Given our finding, we advocate for the relaxation of policy of lockdown and the combine use of monetary and fiscal policies to mitigate the negative effect of COVID-19 pandemic on stock market returns in Nigeria.

scholarly journals The Influence of Exchange Rate, World Oil Price, and BI Rate on Airline Companie’s Return in Indonesian Stock Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 321
Author(s):  
Yonatan Alvin Stefan ◽  
Robiyanto Robiyanto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
National Development ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
The Us

In an effort to support the economic growth of Indonesia, an infrastructure development is carried out to achieve the national development. It brings positive influences on transportation companies in Indonesia. Many companies list their shares to Indonesia Stock Exchange, including PT. Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (IDX code: GIAA) and PT. AirAsia Indonesia Tbk (IDX code: CMPP), aiming to have additional capital sources. The two companies can be such a reference for investors to make investments, but they still need to consider the macro factors attached. This study examines the influende of exchange rate, world oil price, and Bank Indonesia (BI) rates on the GIAA and CMPP stock returns. The analysis technique used was Generalize Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and daily data starting from their IPO to February 28th, 2019. The results showed that the exchange rate negatively affected the GIAA and CMPP stock returns, while the world oil prices only negatively affected the CMPP stock return, and the BI rates only negatively affected the GIAA stock return. In general, the investors are suggested not to buy the GIAA and CMPP shares when the IDR exchange rate weakens against the US dollar exchange rate.

scholarly journals Expectations or macroeconomic innovations: What drives the stakeholders’ decisions? Evidence from the euro area

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 185-189
Author(s):  
S. Ali Shah Syed ◽  
Hélène Syed Zwick
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
New Evidence

This study brings new evidence supporting the existence of the linkage between equity market and macroeconomic variables in the Euro area. Using the monthly data from January 1999 to September 2014 we show empirical relationship between stock returns and interest rate in the 19 countries using the euro. The results confirm that in Euro Area stock markets, the stockowners decisions are significantly influenced by the macroeconomic expectations, particularly the long run interest rate

Cointegration of Asian Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence from India

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Beeralaguddada Srinivasa Veerappa
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Indian Stock Market

At present stock return is significantly related to other global stock markets. The present paper empirically investigates the short run and long run equilibrium relationship between the stock market of India, Japan Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, China, and Australia monthly data during January 1995 to December 2013. Researcher employs correlation test, multivariate co-integration framework, Vector Auto Regressive error-correction model and Granger causality test with reference to financial up evils in Asia and world viz., Asian crisis (1997/98), financial crisis (2008) Inflation conditions, Natural disasters, financial up evils etc. of long run relationship. Results find that the Indian stock market return is significantly co-integrated with long run and short run situations/causalities in Asian Stock returns.

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