Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation under the Climate Change Scenarios

2016 ◽  
pp. 465-491
Author(s):  
Umut Okkan ◽  
Gul Inan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Relevance Vector Machine ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

This study aims to discuss the potentials of machine learning methods such as artificial neural network (ANN), least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), and relevance vector machine (RVM) in downscaling of simulations of a general circulation model (GCM) for monthly temperature and precipitation of the Demirkopru Dam located in the Aegean region of Turkey. The predictors are obtained from ERA-Interim re-analysis data. The best performed downscaling model is integrated into European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) with A2 future scenario. The results are then discussed to assess the probable climate change effects on temperature and precipitation.

scholarly journals Application of LARS - WG downscaling model for building climate change scenarios in the Srepok watershed

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-122
Author(s):  
Khoi Nguyen Dao ◽  
Nhung Thi Hong Nguyen ◽  
Canh Thanh Truong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

There are statistical downscaling methods such as: SDSM, LARS-WG, WGEN…, used to convert information on climate variables from the simulation results of General Circulation Model (GCM) to build climate change scenarios for local region. In this study, we used the LARS-WG model and HadCM3 GCM for two emission scenarios: B1 (low emission scenario) and A1B (medium emission scenario) to generate future scenarios for temperature and precipitation at meteorological stations and rain gauges in the Srepok watershed. The LARS-WG model was calibrated and validated against observed climate data for the period 1980-2009, and the calibrated LARS-WG was then used to generate future climate variables for the 2020s (2011-2030), 2055s (2046-2065), and 2090s (2080-2099). The climate change scenarios suggested that the climate in the study area will become warmer and drier in the future. The results obtained in this study could be useful for policy makers in planning climate change adaptation strategies for the study area.

Recent climate variability and future climate change scenarios for

1998 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 350-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
D. Conway
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Sulphate Aerosols ◽  
Recent Climate

This article reviews recent climatically extreme periods in Great Britain and presents results from the latest general circulation model (GCM) experiments showing the possible spatial patterns and magnitude of future climate change for this region. During the last decade the British Isles has seen record-breaking periods of above-average temperatures, alongside periods with above and below-average precipitation, combined with an increase in winter precipitation and a decrease in summer precipitation. The impacts of these anomalies, coupled with the possibility that future climate change may increase their frequency and/or severity, have prompted the UK Department of the Environment, Transport and Regions and other organizations involved in environmental management, such as the Environment Agency, to commission a number of studies into their impacts. These have highlighted wide-ranging impacts on the natural environment of Great Britain and on human ativities to the extent of affecting the national economy. The use of GCMs for the development of future climate change scenarios is reviewed. Results from recent ensemble GCM experiments with and without the effects of sulphate aerosols are presented. These show broadly similar changes in temperature and precipitation to previous climate change scenarios prepared for Great Britain. In summary, the scenarios suggest the following: a warming of about 3 8C (3.5 8C) over the region by 2100 with (without) the effects of sulphate aerosols; slight increases in annual precipitation over northern England and Scotland, more pronounced increases over the whole of the region in winter; and slight decreases in precipitation over Wales and central England in summer. These changes are synchronous with decreases in the number of wet-days and increases in the intensity of precipitation on wet-days. The high level of uncertainty associated with regional scenarios of temperature and precipitation is discussed and emphasized

Modeling the effects of climate change on different land uses

2007 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Göncü ◽  
E. Albek
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Vegetative Cover ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Western Turkey ◽  
Watershed Response ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

This study deals with the effects of the expected climate change on the hydrology of watersheds. The watershed response in terms of the water produced by the watershed has been modeled using HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN) for a time period which encompasses the first half of the twenty-first century. Climate change scenarios have been prepared based on trends expected in western Turkey and a hypothetical watershed with different land uses has been simulated. The trends have been extracted from the results of a general circulation model. The simulations have revealed that watersheds with no vegetative cover will respond to the trends in temperature and precipitation more rigorously than vegetated watersheds. Pasture or watersheds with deciduous or coniferous forests respond less to climate change due to the buffering mechanism of the vegetative cover and also due to the large quantities of water they transpire. It has also been found that monthly variations are important in predicting the future response of watersheds. While changes might seem small on a yearly scale, there are large differences in response among seasons.

scholarly journals Modeling and predicting suspended sediment load under climate change conditions: a new hybridization strategy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeed Farzin ◽  
Mahdi Valikhan Anaraki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Suspended Sediment ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Suspended Sediment Load ◽  
Inference System ◽  
New Strategy

Abstract In the present study, for the first time, a new strategy based on a combination of the hybrid least-squares support-vector machine (LS-SVM) and flower pollination optimization algorithm (FPA), average 24 general circulation model (GCM) output, and delta change factor method has been developed to achieve the impacts of climate change on runoff and suspended sediment load (SSL) in the Lighvan Basin in the period (2020–2099). Also, the results of modeling were compared to those of LS-SVM and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) methods. The comparison of runoff and SSL modeling results showed that the LS-SVM-FPA algorithm had the best results and the ANFIS algorithm had the worst results. After the acceptable performance of the LS-SVM-FPA algorithm was proved, the algorithm was used to predict runoff and SSL under climate change conditions based on ensemble GCM outputs for periods (2020–2034, 2035–2049, 2070–2084, and 2085–2099) under three scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The results showed a decrease in the runoff in all periods and scenarios, except for the two near periods under the RCP2.6 scenario for runoff. The predicted runoff and SSL time series also showed that the SSL values were lower than the average observation period, except for 2036–2039 (up to an 8% increase in 2038).

scholarly journals Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 449-463 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Posch ◽  
J. Aherne ◽  
M. Forsius ◽  
S. Fronzek ◽  
N. Veijalainen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Chemical Recovery ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Sulphur Deposition ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2). The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change) and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change). Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation) on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

Simulation of Late-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation over Europe Due to Anthropogenic Causes

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 4630-4635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Terray ◽  
Marie-Estelle Demory ◽  
Michel Déqué ◽  
Gaelle de Coetlogon ◽  
Eric Maisonnave
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Evidence is presented, based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios performed with a global general circulation model of the atmosphere with high horizontal resolution over Europe, to suggest that the end-of-century anthropogenic climate change over the North Atlantic–European region strongly projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation during wintertime. It is reflected in a doubling of the residence frequency of the climate system in the associated circulation regime, in agreement with the nonlinear climate perspective. The strong increase in the amplitude of the response, compared to coarse-resolution coupled model studies, suggests that improved model representation of regional climate is needed to achieve more reliable projections of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.

scholarly journals Development of a SWAT Hydropower Operation Routine and Its Application to Assessing Hydrological Alterations in the Mekong

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2193
Author(s):  
Jayandra P. Shrestha ◽  
Markus Pahlow ◽  
Thomas A. Cochrane
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Reservoir Operations ◽  
Reservoir Systems ◽  
Hydropower Operation ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Reservoir operations and climate change can alter natural river flow regimes. To assess impacts of climate and hydropower operations on downstream flows and energy generation, an integrated hydropower operations and catchment hydrological model is needed. The widely used hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is ideal for catchment hydrology, but provides only limited reservoir operation functions. A hydropower reservoir operation routine (HydROR) was thus developed for SWAT to analyze complex reservoir systems under different policies. The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Reservoir System Simulation (HEC-ResSim) model, a well-established reservoir simulation model, was used to indirectly evaluate functionality of the HydROR. A comparison between HydROR and HEC-ResSim under a range of operation rule curves resulted in R2 values exceeding 0.99. The HydROR was then applied to assess hydrological alterations due to combined impacts of climate change and reservoir operations of 38 hydropower dams in the 3S basin of the Mekong River. Hydropower production under climate change varied from −1.6% to 2.3%, depending on the general circulation model chosen. Changing the hydropower operation policy from maximizing energy production to maintaining ecological flows resulted in a production change of 13%. The calculation of hydrological alteration indices at the outlet of the 3S basin revealed that over 113% alteration in the natural river outflow regime occurred from the combined impacts of climate change and reservoir operations. Furthermore, seasonal flows and extreme water conditions changed by 154% and 104%, respectively. Alterations were also significant within the basin, and, as expected, were larger for high-head and small-river reservoirs. These alterations will adversely affect ecological dynamics, in particular, habitat availability. HydROR proved to be a valuable addition to SWAT for the analyses of complex reservoir systems under different policies and climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Assessing the climate change impact on hydrological response in the Gorganrood River Basin, Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 421-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Rouhani ◽  
Marayam Sadat Jafarzadeh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Annual Scale

Abstract A general circulation model (GCM) and hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) under forcing from A1B, B1, and A2 emission scenarios by 2030 were used to assess the implications of climate change on water balance of the Gorganrood River Basin (GRB). The results of MPEH5C models and multi-scenarios indicated that monthly precipitation generally decreases while temperature increases in various parts of the basin with the magnitude of the changes in terms of different stations and scenarios. Accordingly, seasonal ET will decrease throughout the GRB over the 2020s in all seasons except in summer, where a slight increase is projected for A1B and A2 scenarios. At annual scale, average quick flow and average low flow under the B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios are projected to decrease by 7.3 to 12.0% from the historical levels. Over the ensembles of climate change scenarios, the simulations project average autumn total flow declines of ∼10% and an overall range of 6.9 to 13.2%. In summer, the components of flow at the studied basin are expected to increase under A2 and A1B scenarios but will slightly decrease under B1 scenario. The study result addresses a likelihood of inevitable future climate change.

scholarly journals Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Future Runoff of River Satluj

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-21
Author(s):  
Narayan P Gautam ◽  
Manohar Arora ◽  
N.K. Goel ◽  
A.R.S. Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Climatic Condition ◽  
The Impact

Climate change has been emerging as one of the challenges in the global environment. Information of predicted climatic changes in basin scale is highly useful to know the future climatic condition in the basin that ultimately becomes helpful to carry out planning and management of the water resources available in the basin. Climatic scenario is a plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change. This study based on statistical downscaling, provide good example focusing on predicting the rainfall and runoff patterns, using the coarse general circulation model (GCM) outputs. The outputs of the GCMs are utilized to study the impact of climate change on water resources. The present study has been taken up to identify the climate change scenarios for Satluj river basin, India.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 8(1) p.10-21

scholarly journals Assessment of hydrological response in Subarnarekha river basin under anticipated climate change scenarios

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Subarnarekha River ◽  
Subarnarekha River Basin

<p>Two hydrological climate modelling techniques, general circulation model (GCM) and hypothetical climate change scenarios, were used to analyse the hydrological response to the anticipated climate change scenarios in the Subarnarekha river basin in Eastern India. Both models verified individually for the same river basin and a comparative performance of the models was evaluated to relate the two models for the near (2014-2040) period climate. The hydrological response under the anticipated climate change in the Subarnarekha river basin is well assessed by GCM under the RCP 8.5 scenarios compared to the RCPs 4.5. Results indicate GCM best suited over the hypothetical climate change scenarios as GCM has demonstrated their potential in accurately reproducing the past observed climatic changes. The strong performance of the hypothetical climate change scenarios model, particularly for warming climate scenarios, suggests that it may have distinct advantages for the analysis of water balance components in the river basin. The monthly streamflows of Subarnarekha river basin was simulated using a total of 14 years (2000-2013) daily observed streamflow data in the ArcSWAT model integrated with model calibration and uncertainty analysis by means of SUFI-2 algorithm. The results indicate during the calibration the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) were reported as 0.98 and 0.97, respectively, while during the validation the R2 and NSE were obtained as 0.94 and 0.94, respectively, confirms the hydrological model performance was very good both in calibration and validation. The obtained climate change water impact index (ICCWI) values reveal the Subarnarekha river basin is more responsive to climate change. The reduction in precipitation along with the significant warming under the projected future climate is likely to reduce availability of water substantially in the study region. This work would be useful for the effective management of water resources for sustainable agriculture and in mitigating natural hazards such as droughts and floods in the study region.</p>

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