The Impact of Heat Waves on Mortality in Nanjing Area from 2004 to 2010

2013 ◽  
Vol 726-731 ◽  
pp. 931-935
Author(s):  
Yuan Shu Jing ◽  
Di Zhang ◽  
Min Fei Yan ◽  
Jian Guo Tan
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Residual Disease ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzed the excess mortality change in nine districts of Nanjing city, based on mortality data and meteorological data from 2004 to 2010. Taken a typical heat waves process in summer of 2006 as an example, it was discussed of the effect of the heat process on different gender, different age groups , and various disease death toll and excess mortality changes. The excess mortality was associated with the average maximum temperature and average minimum temperature during the heat waves. Excess mortality occurred in the middle of June heat wave when excess mortality was much higher than in other time periods. In late June, early July to early August, the excess mortality is relatively small. The average daily deaths are increasing with increasing age for male and female, and every age death numbers is higher than that with no heat waves during the heat wave period. In addition to the respiratory system diseases, diseases of the genitourinary system, other diseases, residual disease in the heat waves has increased, and diseases of the nervous system and the endocrine system diseases of excess mortality rate reached a staggering 342.93% and 119.63%, accounting for almost half of the total heat excess mortality. The heat waves effect is very obvious. The conclusion is of great significance for prevention of high temperature heat harm.

scholarly journals The impact of the 2003 heat wave on daily mortality in England and Wales and the use of rapid weekly mortality estimates

2005 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 15-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
H Johnson ◽  
S Kovats ◽  
G McGregor ◽  
J Stedman ◽  
M Gibbs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Daily Mortality ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
National Statistics ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mortality Estimates

This paper describes a retrospective analysis of the impact of the 2003 heat wave on mortality in England and Wales, and compares this with rapid estimates based on the Office for National Statistics routine weekly deaths reporting system. Daily mortality data for 4 to 13 August 2003, when temperatures were much hotter than normally seen in England, were compared with averages for the same period in years 1998 to 2002. The August 2003 heat wave was associated with a large short-term increase in mortality, particularly in London. Ozone and particulate matter concentrations were also elevated during the heat wave. Overall, there were 2139 (16%) excess deaths in England and Wales. Worst affected were people over the age of 75 years. The impact was greatest in the London region where deaths in those over the age of 75 increased by 59%. Estimated excess mortality was greater than for other recent heat waves in the United Kingdom. The estimated number of deaths registered each week is reported by the Office for National Statistics. The first clear indication of a substantial increase in deaths was published on 21 August 2003. This provided a quick first estimate of the number of deaths attributable to the heat wave and reflected the pattern of daily deaths in relation to the hottest days, but underestimated the excess when compared with the later analysis.

scholarly journals Impact of different heat wave definitions on daily mortality in Bandafassi, Senegal

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0249199
Author(s):  
Mbaye Faye ◽  
Abdoulaye Dème ◽  
Abdou Kâ Diongue ◽  
Ibrahima Diouf
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
The Impact

Objective The aim of this study is to find the most suitable heat wave definition among 15 different ones and to evaluate its impact on total, age-, and gender-specific mortality for Bandafassi, Senegal. Methods Daily weather station data were obtained from Kedougou situated at 17 km from Bandafassi from 1973 to 2012. Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) are used to investigate the effect of heat wave on mortality and to evaluate the nonlinear association of heat wave definitions at different lag days, respectively. Results Heat wave definitions, based on three or more consecutive days with both daily minimum and maximum temperatures greater than the 90th percentile, provided the best model fit. A statistically significant increase in the relative risk (RRs 1.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.2–1.6), 1.7 (95% CI: 1.5–1.9), 1.21 (95% CI: 1.08–1.3), 1.2 (95% CI: 1.04–1.5), 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.8), 1.4 (95% CI: 1.2–1.5), 1.5 (95% CI: 1.07–1.6), and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.8)) of total mortality was observed for eight definitions. By using the definition based on the 90th percentile of minimum and maximum temperature with a 3-day duration, we also found that females and people aged ≥ 55 years old were at higher risks than males and other different age groups to heat wave related mortality. Conclusion The impact of heat waves was associated with total-, age-, gender-mortality. These results are expected to be useful for decision makers who conceive of public health policies in Senegal and elsewhere. Climate parameters, including temperatures and humidity, could be used to forecast heat wave risks as an early warning system in the area where we conduct this research. More broadly, our findings should be highly beneficial to climate services, researchers, clinicians, end-users and decision-makers.

scholarly journals Excess mortality in Guadeloupe and Martinique, islands of the French West Indies, during the chikungunya epidemic of 2014

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (16) ◽  
pp. 2059-2065 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. R. Freitas ◽  
P. M. Alarcón-Elbal ◽  
M. R. Donalisio
Keyword(s):  
Strong Correlation ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractIn some chikungunya epidemics, deaths are not completely captured by traditional surveillance systems, which record case and death reports. We evaluated excess deaths associated with the 2014 chikungunya virus (CHIKV) epidemic in Guadeloupe and Martinique, Antilles. Population (784 097 inhabitants) and mortality data, estimated by sex and age, were accessed from the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques in France. Epidemiological data, cases, hospitalisations and deaths on CHIKV were obtained from the official epidemiological reports of the Cellule de Institut de Veille Sanitaire in France. Excess deaths were calculated as the difference between the expected and observed deaths for all age groups for each month in 2014 and 2015, considering the upper limit of 99% confidence interval. The Pearson correlation coefficient showed a strong correlation between monthly excess deaths and reported cases of chikungunya (R= 0.81,p< 0.005) and with a 1-month lag (R= 0.87,p< 0.001); and a strong correlation was also observed between monthly rates of hospitalisation for CHIKV and excess deaths with a delay of 1 month (R= 0.87,p< 0.0005). The peak of the epidemic occurred in the month with the highest mortality, returning to normal soon after the end of the CHIKV epidemic. There were excess deaths in almost all age groups, and excess mortality rate was higher among the elderly but was similar between male and female individuals. The overall mortality estimated in the current study (639 deaths) was about four times greater than that obtained through death declarations (160 deaths). Although the aetiological diagnosis of all deaths associated with CHIKV infection is not always possible, already well-known statistical tools can contribute to the evaluation of the impact of CHIKV on mortality and morbidity in the different age groups.

scholarly journals A Consistent Methodology to Evaluate Temperature and Heat Wave Future Projections for Cities: A Case Study for Lisbon

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Rocha ◽  
Susana C. Pereira ◽  
Carolina Viceto ◽  
Rui Silva ◽  
Jorge Neto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Present Climate ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature ◽  
Accumulated Temperature

Heat waves are large-scale atmospheric phenomena that may cause heat stress in ecosystems and socio-economic activities. In cities, morbidity and mortality may increase during a heat wave, overloading health and emergency services. In the face of climate change and associated warming, cities need to adapt and mitigate the effects of heat waves. This study suggests a new method to evaluate heat waves’ impacts on cities by considering some aspects of heat waves that are not usually considered in other similar studies. The method devises heat wave quantities that are easy to calculate; it is relevant to assessing their impacts and permits the development of adaptation measures. This study applies the suggested method to quantify various aspects of heat waves in Lisbon for future climate projections considering future mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2081–2100) climates under the RCP8.5 greenhouse emission scenario. This is achieved through the analysis of various regional climate simulations performed with the WRF model and an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX models. This allows an estimation of uncertainty and confidence of the projections. To evaluate the climate change properties of heat waves, statistics for future climates are compared to those for a reference recent climate. Simulated temperatures are first bias corrected to minimize the model systematic errors relative to observations. The temperature for mid and long-term futures is expected to increase relative to the present by 1.6 °C and 3.6 °C, respectively, with late summer months registering the highest increases. The number of heat wave days per year will increase on average from 10, in the present climate, to 38 and 63 in mid and long-term climates, respectively. Heat wave duration, intensity, average maximum temperature, and accumulated temperature during a heat wave will also increase. Heat waves account for an annual average of accumulated temperature of 358 °C·day in the present climate, while in the mid and long-term, future climates account for 1270 °C·day and 2078 °C·day, respectively. The largest increases are expected to occur from July to October. Extreme intensity and long-duration heat waves with an average maximum temperature of more than 40 °C are expected to occur in the future climates.

scholarly journals Excess mortality in Guadeloupe and Martinique, islands of the French West Indies, during the chikungunya epidemic of 2014

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. R. Freitas ◽  
P. M. Alarcon-Elbal ◽  
M. R. Donalisio
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Case Reports ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Population Total ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Pearson Coefficient ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn some chikugunya epidemics, deaths are not fully captured by the traditional surveillance system, based on case reports and death reports. This is a time series study to evaluate the excess of mortality associated with epidemic of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in Guadeloupe and Martinique, Antilles, 2014. The population (total 784,097 inhabitants) and mortality data estimated by sex and age were accessed at the Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques - France. Age adjusted mortality rates were calculated also in Reunion, Indian Ocean for comparison. Epidemiological data on CHIKV (cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) were obtained in the official epidemiological reports of the Cellule de Institut de Veille Sanitaire - France. The excess of deaths for each month in 2014 and 2015 was the difference between the expected and observed deaths for all age groups, considering the 99% confidence interval threshold. Pearson coefficient of correlation between monthly excess of deaths and reported cases of chikungunya show a strong correlation (R = 0.81, p <0.005), also with a 1-month lag (R = 0.87, p <0.001), and between monthly rates of hospitalization for CHIKV and the excess of deaths with a delay of 1 month (R = 0.87, p <0.0005).The peak of the epidemic occurred in the month with the highest mortality, returning to normal soon after the end of the CHIKV epidemic. The overall mortality estimated by this method (639 deaths) was about 4 times greater than that obtained through death declarations (160 deaths). Excess mortality increased with age. Although etiological diagnosis of all deaths associated with CHIKV infection is not possible, already well-known statistical tools can contribute to an evaluation of the impact of this virus on the mortality and morbidity in the different age groups.

Robust and Timely Estimation of Excess Mortality: Statistical Analysis of Cremation Data During the COVID-19 Pandemic (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma Postill ◽  
Regan Murray ◽  
Andrew S Wilton ◽  
Richard A Wells ◽  
Renee Sirbu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Vital Statistics ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Mortality Estimation ◽  
Statistics Canada ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND Early estimates of excess mortality are crucial for understanding the impact of COVID-19. However, there is a lag of several months in the reporting of vital statistics mortality data for many jurisdictions. In Ontario, a Canadian province, certification by a coroner is required before cremation can occur, creating timely mortality data that encompasses the majority of deaths within the province. OBJECTIVE Our objectives were to (1) validate the ability of cremation data in permitting real-time estimation of excess all-cause mortality, interim of vital statistics data, and (2) describe the patterns of excess mortality. METHODS Cremation records from January 2020 until April 2021 were compared to the historical records from 2017-2019, grouped according to week, age, sex, and COVID-19 status. Cremation data were compared to Ontario’s provisional vital statistics mortality data released by Statistics Canada. The 2020 and 2021 records were then compared to previous years to determine whether there was excess mortality and if so, which age groups had the greatest number of excess deaths during the COVID Pandemic, and whether deaths attributed to COVID-19 account for the entirety of the excess mortality. RESULTS Between 2017-2019, cremations were performed for 67.4% (95% CI: 67.3–67.5%) of deaths; the proportion of cremated deaths remained stable throughout 2020, establishing that the COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly alter cremation practices, even within age and sex categories. During the first wave (from April to June 2020), cremation records detected a 16.9% increase (95% CI: 14.6–19.3%) in mortality. The accuracy of this excess mortality estimation was later confirmed by vital statistics data. CONCLUSIONS The stability in the percent of Ontarians cremated and the completion of cremation data several months before vital statistics data, enables accurate estimation of all-causes mortality in near real-time with cremation data. These findings demonstrate the utility of cremation data to provide timely mortality information during public health emergencies.

scholarly journals Mining Social Media to Identify Heat Waves

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Cecinati ◽  
Tom Matthews ◽  
Sukumar Natarajan ◽  
Nick McCullen ◽  
David Coley
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Quantitative Definition ◽  
Related Mortality ◽  
Or In Developing Countries ◽  
Better Than

Heat waves are one of the deadliest of natural hazards and their frequency and intensity will likely increase as the climate continues to warm. A challenge in studying these phenomena is the lack of a universally accepted quantitative definition that captures both temperature anomalies and associated mortality. We test the hypothesis that social media mining can be used to identify heat wave mortality. Applying the approach to India, we find that the number of heat-related tweets correlates with heat-related mortality much better than traditional climate-based indicators, especially at larger scales, which identify many heat wave days that do not lead to excess mortality. We conclude that social media based heat wave identification can complement climatic data and can be used to: (1) study heat wave impacts at large scales or in developing countries, where mortality data are difficult to obtain and uncertain, and (2) to track dangerous heat wave events in real time.

scholarly journals Analysis of wind power under heat wave conditions in southern Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Ofelia Molina ◽  
Enrique Sánchez ◽  
Claudia Gutiérrez ◽  
María Ortega
Keyword(s):  
Wind Energy ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Wave Conditions ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;In recent years, renewable energy is gaining importance in the energy mix, increasing the dependence of the energy system on the weather. Studies have been mainly focused on atmospheric patterns related to wind energy production in winter, as wind resource in Europe is higher for this season, but also because it is when there is a larger and more stable heating demand in Europe as a whole. However, it can be seen that summer energy demand can be as high as in winter in southern European countries, especially on heat wave days (calculated from E-OBS maximum temperature observations). Therefore, the objective of this work is to study the effect of heat waves on wind power generation. Summer climate conditions present reduced wind values, so a potential increase in energy demand due to heat wave conditions could compromise the total energy supply. We analyse the main atmospheric patterns in summer (1989-2019) and how these are related to changes in wind energy production. The relationship between weather regimes and wind energy is examined using an energy model from ERA5 wind speed data at 100 m. Results show a demand increase in heat wave days and different responses in wind power, depending on the country and weather regime studied. The impact of extreme climate events, such as heat waves, on wind energy in conditions of high energy demand, should be considered in the energy supply strategic planning and control to minimize the impact of these events on an electricity system with high penetration of renewables.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals The Effect of the Thermal Mass of the Building Envelope on Summer Overheating of Dwellings in a Temperate Climate

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4117
Author(s):  
Tadeusz Kuczyński ◽  
Anna Staszczuk ◽  
Piotr Ziembicki ◽  
Anna Paluszak
Keyword(s):  
Building Materials ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Building Envelope ◽  
Temperate Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Thermal Mass ◽  
Occupant Behavior ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Night Ventilation

The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate the effectiveness of increasing the thermal capacity of a residential building by using traditional building materials to reduce the risk of its excessive overheating during intense heat waves in a temperate climate. An additional objective is to show that the use of this single passive measure significantly reduces the risk of overheating in daytime rooms, but also, though to a much lesser extent, in bedrooms. Increasing the thermal mass of the room from light to a medium heavy reduced the average maximum daily temperature by 2.2K during the first heat wave and by 2.6K during the other two heat waves. The use of very heavy construction further reduced the average maximum temperature for the heat waves analyzed by 1.4K, 1.2K and 1.7K, respectively, giving a total possible reduction in maximum daily temperatures in the range of 3.6 °C, 3.8 °C and 4.3 °C. A discussion of the influence of occupant behavior on the use of night ventilation and external blinds was carried out, finding a significant effect on the effectiveness of the use of both methods. The results of the study suggest that in temperate European countries, preserving residential construction methods with heavy envelopes and partitions could significantly reduce the risk of overheating in residential buildings over the next few decades, without the need for night ventilation or external blinds, whose effectiveness is highly dependent on individual occupant behavior.

scholarly journals The effect of average temperature on suicide rates in five urban California counties, 1999–⁠2019: an ecological time series analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sierra Cheng ◽  
Rebecca Plouffe ◽  
Stephanie M. Nanos ◽  
Mavra Qamar ◽  
David N. Fisman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
The United States ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Average Maximum

Abstract Background Suicide is among the top 10 leading causes of premature morality in the United States and its rates continue to increase. Thus, its prevention has become a salient public health responsibility. Risk factors of suicide transcend the individual and societal level as risk can increase based on climatic variables. The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the association between average temperature and suicide rates in the five most populous counties in California using mortality data from 1999 to 2019. Methods Monthly counts of death by suicide for the five counties of interest were obtained from CDC WONDER. Monthly average, maximum, and minimum temperature were obtained from nCLIMDIV for the same time period. We modelled the association of each temperature variable with suicide rate using negative binomial generalized additive models accounting for the county-specific annual trend and monthly seasonality. Results There were over 38,000 deaths by suicide in California’s five most populous counties between 1999 and 2019. An increase in average temperature of 1 °C corresponded to a 0.82% increase in suicide rate (IRR = 1.0082 per °C; 95% CI = 1.0025–1.0140). Estimated coefficients for maximum temperature (IRR = 1.0069 per °C; 95% CI = 1.0021–1.0117) and minimum temperature (IRR = 1.0088 per °C; 95% CI = 1.0023–1.0153) were similar. Conclusion This study adds to a growing body of evidence supporting a causal effect of elevated temperature on suicide. Further investigation into environmental causes of suicide, as well as the biological and societal contexts mediating these relationships, is critical for the development and implementation of new public health interventions to reduce the incidence of suicide, particularly in the face increasing temperatures due to climate change.

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