The Consolidated Medium-Term Income and Expenditure Framework

Policy Papers ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 (38) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Downward Shift

The medium-term projections of Fund income and precautionary balances accumulation have been updated since the April 2012 projections. The overall income outlook remains positive with continued high lending income expected in the medium-term. The projections indicate a downward shift in the income path primarily due to lower non-lending income as a result of the low global interest rates and the agreement to phase in investments under the new gold-sales funded endowment. The updated expenditure path has not changed significantly. The projections also illustrate a broad balance between income and expenditures when lending returns to pre-crisis levels. The accumulation of precautionary balances remains strong in the medium-term. The indicative medium-term target of SDR 20 billion is now expected to be reached by FY18–FY19.

The Consolidated Medium-Term Income and Expenditure Framework

Policy Papers ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (61) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Executive Board ◽  
Gradual Rise ◽  
Downward Shift ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Accumulation

The medium-term income projections have been updated since the last estimate provided to the Executive Board in April 2014. The main changes to the outlook stem from a lower path for credit outstanding and expectations for a more gradual rise in interest rates. The revised projections show lower levels of net operational income over the coming years. Lending income is lower compared with earlier estimates as a result of lower credit levels, including the advance repurchases by Ireland and Portugal. Non-lending income is also projected to be lower reflecting a further downward shift in SDR interest rates and, thus, returns on investments and interest-free resources. The updated expenditure path assumes the net administrative budget remains constant in real terms at the FY 2012 level. The long-run projections indicate a broad balance between income and expenditures, assuming that interest rates rise to 3.5 percent and with lending returning to pre-crisis levels. The pace of reserve accumulation is expected to slow, reflecting the decline in Fund credit, and precautionary balances are now projected to remain slightly below the projected target of SDR 20 billion over the medium term compared with the earlier estimates.

Chapter 1. The Home Economy

1989 ◽  
Vol 127 ◽  
pp. 7-25
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Regional Pattern ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
The Past ◽  
Alternative Scenarios

On this occasion we have adopted a rather different format for this chapter from the customary one. Part One begins with an analysis of some of the most important developments of the past few years, with notes on the deterioration in the balance of payments, on the fall in the savings ratio and on the acceleration of inflation. Next we discuss some of the problems associated with economic forecasting. We analyse the errors made last year and compare them with the error margins normally associated with short-term forecasts of this kind. We look at the behaviour of the economy at the corresponding stage of previous economic cycles. And we consider the best way of forecasting GDP when there are discrepancies between the measures of its growth in the past. Our central forecasts for 1989 and 1990 are described briefly in the text of Part Two, and more fully set out in the usual tables. We end in Part Three with a discussion of alternative scenarios for the medium term, with particular reference to their implications for interest rates and the exchange rate. An appendix describes the regional pattern of unemployment and the way it has changed since the early 1980s.

Ghana euro-bond setback may force more austerity

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Commercial Environment ◽  
The Imf

Subject Ghana's debt strategy. Significance The government on October 2 suspended its fourth euro-bond sale after low investor interest. The planned 1.5-billion-dollar issue was a key pillar in the medium-term debt management plan under the country's IMF programme. However, rising interest rates on dollar-denominated bonds and the lack of confidence in Ghana's economy has proved it to be a risky strategy. Impacts Preferences for political continuity may see the IMF offer the government more leniency on expenditure targets as 2016 elections approach. The opposition New Patriotic Party needs to do more to capitalise on the economic crisis if it hopes to unseat the government. Appetite for Ghana's recovery among donors could see more concessional borrowing if the commercial environment remains difficult.

Czech vote may raise chances of new ANO-led government

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Capacity Constraints ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type

Significance Now that Zeman has successfully retaken the presidency with 152,000 more votes than his pro-Western rival Jiri Drahos after a campaign that was dominated by domestic issues, attention will focus once again on forming a majority government after the largest parliamentary party, ANO 2011, lost a vote of confidence on January 16. Impacts Consumer confidence may strengthen in the short term as the old ANO-CSSD government’s policies take effect, providing an economic boost. Robust household consumption and public- and private-backed investment may also contribute to stronger GDP this year. Although monetary policy is set to tighten, in response to signs of overheating, interest rates will remain at historic lows. The outlook for the economy in the short term is upbeat, with a strong outturn expected for the fourth quarter of 2017. Structural reforms will be required over the medium term to reduce the risk of capacity constraints, especially in industry.

scholarly journals The World Economy: Forecast Summary

2018 ◽  
Vol 245 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Similar Rate ◽  
List Type ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

Last year the global economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2011. We expect global growth to continue at a similar rate in 2018 and 2019.We expect the pace of global economic expansion to slow to around 3.5 per cent a year in the medium term unless productivity growth picks up substantially.Although some advanced economies appear to be operating at close to full capacity and oil prices have increased, our expectation is that any rise in inflation will be muted. Central banks will only raise policy interest rates gradually.Recent announcements on tariff increases by the US and retaliations to these have added to the uncertainty about the global economic outlook. Ongoing trade talks create the potential for a rapidly changing situation which could create surprises to the global forecast outlook.

scholarly journals Market Power, NAIRU, and the Phillips Curve

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Derek Zweig
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Functional Form ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Natural Rate Of Unemployment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Short Run

We explore the relationship between unemployment and inflation in the United States (1949-2019) through both Bayesian and spectral lenses. We employ Bayesian vector autoregression (“BVAR”) to expose empirical interrelationships between unemployment, inflation, and interest rates. Generally, we do find short-run behavior consistent with the Phillips curve, though it tends to break down over the longer term. Emphasis is also placed on Phelps’ and Friedman’s NAIRU theory using both a simplistic functional form and BVAR. We find weak evidence supporting the NAIRU theory from the simplistic model, but stronger evidence using BVAR. A wavelet analysis reveals that the short-run NAIRU theory and Phillips curve relationships may be time-dependent, while the long-run relationships are essentially vertical, suggesting instead that each relationship is primarily observed over the medium-term (2-10 years), though the economically significant medium-term region has narrowed in recent decades to roughly 4-7 years. We pay homage to Phillips’ original work, using his functional form to compare potential differences in labor bargaining power attributable to labor scarcity, partitioned by skill level (as defined by educational attainment). We find evidence that the wage Phillips curve is more stable for individuals with higher skill and that higher skilled labor may enjoy a lower natural rate of unemployment.

Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Europe: an Overview

2000 ◽  
Vol 174 ◽  
pp. 63-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nigel Pain
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Reference Value ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Type Representation ◽  
Growth Pact ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

There are new monetary and fiscal frameworks in place for the countries in the Euro Area. The European Central Bank has a remit to maintain price level stability in the medium term, and it has developed a two pillar strategy, with interest rates being set in relation to a reference value of M3 and general (inflationary) conditions. We discuss an ideal type representation of this framework and examine the potential effects of a fall in the euro. Fiscal policy in Europe is now based on guidelines from the Stability and Growth Pact and we discuss the role of commitment in this framework as well

Fiscal Policy and EMU

1996 ◽  
Vol 158 ◽  
pp. 91-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Allsopp ◽  
David Vines
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Convergence Criteria ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Fiscal Restraint ◽  
Private Savings

This article considers the role of fiscal policy within a European Monetary Union. There are two quite different issues. The first is the medium-term problem of deficits and debt. The Maastricht fiscal convergence criteria are usually seen as an imperfect response to the need to contain potentially ‘irresponsible’ fiscal authorities. It is argued here that they should be seen as reflecting a coordinated response to the generalised objective of fiscal consolidation and restraint in Europe: similar rules are likely to be a feature of Stage 3. There is a danger that governments are underestimating the difficulties of fiscal consolidation in a large area such as Europe. In practice, success would require a sustained rise in private sector investment and growth (or reduced private savings). The monetary coordination to go with generalised fiscal restraint appears to be lacking and we suggest a preemptive cut in interest rates. A more complete view of the causes of rising debt stocks in Europe is needed, and we suggest that a reframing of the problem of deficits and debt in terms of the needed (counterpart) private sector responses would be helpful in highlighting the coordination problems and avoiding adverse dynamic reactions. The medium-term problems interract unfavourably with the second set of issues-the need for fiscal policy to be used more actively for short-term stabilisation in a future common currency area. Fiscal offsets are an appropriate response to domestic demand shocks, but not to others, such as those requiring a change in the real exchange rate. Contrary to the ‘fiscal federalist’ position, such stabilisation need not involve centralisation. But there are serious difficulties. Without care, needed stabilisation will be prevented by the Maastricht criteria or the rules likely to follow them. And without coordination, independent stabilisation of common shocks will tend towards too little fiscal activism rather than too much.

Economic growth in Spain is set to slow down

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustained Growth ◽  
Low Interest Rates

Significance Despite the absence of an effective government since December, the economy has maintained growth above an annualised 3%, higher than in most other Western European countries. Impacts Sustained growth will enable further job creation and reduce unemployment. Low interest rates and higher employment will support demand, especially in the housing market. Public debt will remain high in the short-to-medium term and the deficit will not be reduced to below 3% until 2018, dragging on growth. There is little macroeconomic space for further stimulus, although both the PP and Citizens have pledged to reduce taxes.

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