scholarly journals Weak global sensitivity of cloud condensation nuclei and the aerosol indirect effect to Criegee + SO<sub>2</sub> chemistry

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3163-3176 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. Pierce ◽  
M. J. Evans ◽  
C. E. Scott ◽  
S. D. D'Andrea ◽  
D. K. Farmer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layers ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Chemical Mechanism ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Aerosol Indirect Effect ◽  
Global Sensitivity ◽  
Cloud Albedo ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. H2SO4 vapor is important for the nucleation of atmospheric aerosols and the growth of ultrafine particles to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) sizes with important roles in the global aerosol budget and hence planetary radiative forcing. Recent studies have found that reactions of stabilized Criegee intermediates (CIs, formed from the ozonolysis of alkenes) with SO2 may be an important source of H2SO4 that has been missing from atmospheric aerosol models. For the first time in a global model, we investigate the impact of this new source of H2SO4 in the atmosphere. We use the chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, with the online aerosol microphysics module, TOMAS, to estimate the possible impact of CIs on present-day H2SO4, CCN, and the cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect (AIE). We extend the standard GEOS-Chem chemistry with CI-forming reactions (ozonolysis of isoprene, methyl vinyl ketone, methacrolein, propene, and monoterpenes) from the Master Chemical Mechanism. Using a fast rate constant for CI+SO2, we find that the addition of this chemistry increases the global production of H2SO4 by 4%. H2SO4 concentrations increase by over 100% in forested tropical boundary layers and by over 10–25% in forested NH boundary layers (up to 100% in July) due to CI+SO2 chemistry, but the change is generally negligible elsewhere. The predicted changes in CCN were strongly dampened to the CI+SO2 changes in H2SO4 in some regions: less than 15% in tropical forests and less than 2% in most mid-latitude locations. The global-mean CCN change was less than 1% both in the boundary layer and the free troposphere. The associated cloud-albedo AIE change was less than 0.03 W m−2. The model global sensitivity of CCN and the AIE to CI+SO2 chemistry is significantly (approximately one order-of-magnitude) smaller than the sensitivity of CCN and AIE to other uncertain model inputs, such as nucleation mechanisms, primary emissions, SOA (secondary organic aerosol) and deposition. Similarly, comparisons to size-distribution measurements show that uncertainties in other model parameters dominate model biases in the model-predicted size distributions. We conclude that improvement in the modeled CI+SO2 chemistry would not likely lead to significant improvements in present-day CCN and AIE predictions.

scholarly journals Weak sensitivity of cloud condensation nuclei and the aerosol indirect effect to Criegee + SO<sub>2</sub> chemistry

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 33127-33163 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. Pierce ◽  
M. J. Evans ◽  
C. E. Scott ◽  
S. D. D'Andrea ◽  
D. K. Farmer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layers ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Ultrafine Particles ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Chemical Mechanism ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Aerosol Indirect Effect ◽  
Cloud Albedo

Abstract. H2SO4 vapor is important for the nucleation of atmospheric aerosols and the growth of ultrafine particles to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) sizes. Recent studies have found that reactions of stabilized Criegee intermediates (CIs, formed from the ozonolysis of alkenes) with SO2 may be an important source of H2SO4 that has been missing from atmospheric aerosol models. In this paper, we use the chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, with the online aerosol microphysics module, TOMAS, to estimate the possible impact of CIs on present-day H2SO4, CCN, and the cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect (AIE). We extend the standard GEOS-Chem chemistry with CI-forming reactions (ozonolysis of isoprene, methyl vinyl ketone, methacrolein, propene, and monoterpenes) from the Master Chemical Mechanism. Using a fast rate constant for CI+SO2, we find that the addition of this chemistry increases the global production of H2SO4 by 4%. H2SO4 concentrations increase by over 100% in forested tropical boundary layers and by over 10–25% in forested NH boundary layers (up to 100% in July) due to CI + SO2 chemistry, but the change is generally negligible elsewhere. The predicted changed in CCN were strongly dampened to the CI + SO2 changes in H2SO4 in these regions: less than 15% in tropical forests and less than 2% in most mid-latitude locations. The global-mean CCN change was less than 1% both in the boundary layer and the free troposphere. The associated cloud-albedo AIE change was less than 0.03 W m−2. The model global sensitivity of CCN and the AIE to CI + SO2 chemistry is significantly (approximately one order-of-magnitude) smaller than the sensitivity of CCN and AIE to other uncertain model inputs, such as nucleation mechanisms, primary emissions, SOA and deposition. Similarly, comparisons to size-distribution measurements show that uncertainties in other model parameters dominate model biases in the model-predicted size distributions. We conclude that improvement in the modeled CI + SO2 chemistry would not likely to lead to significant improvements in present-day CCN and AIE predictions.

scholarly journals Global cloud condensation nuclei influenced by carbonaceous combustion aerosol

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 6999-7044 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. V. Spracklen ◽  
K. S. Carslaw ◽  
U. Pöschl ◽  
A. Rap ◽  
P. M. Forster
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Pollution Sources ◽  
Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Aerosol Indirect Effect ◽  
Aerosol Model ◽  
Cloud Albedo ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Black carbon in carbonaceous combustion aerosol warms the climate by absorbing solar radiation, meaning reductions in black carbon emissions are often perceived as an attractive global warming mitigation option. However, carbonaceous combustion aerosol can also act as cloud condensation nuclei (particles upon which cloud drops form) so they also cool the climate by increasing cloud albedo. The net radiative effect of carbonaceous combustion aerosol is uncertain because their contribution to cloud drops has not been evaluated on the global scale. By combining extensive observations of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations and a global aerosol model, we show that carbonaceous combustion aerosol accounts for more than half of global cloud condensation nuclei. The evaluated model predicts that wildfire and pollution (fossil fuel and biofuel) carbonaceous combustion aerosol causes a global mean aerosol indirect effect of −0.34 W m−2 due to changes in cloud albedo, with pollution sources alone causing a global mean aerosol indirect effect of −0.23 W m−2. The small size of carbonaceous combustion particles from pollution sources means that whilst they account for only one-third of the emitted mass from these sources they cause two-thirds of the cloud albedo indirect effect that is due to carbonaceous combustion aerosol. This cooling effect must be accounted for to ensure that black carbon emissions controls that reduce the high number concentrations of small pollution particles have the desired net effect on climate.

scholarly journals Global cloud condensation nuclei influenced by carbonaceous combustion aerosol

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 9067-9087 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. V. Spracklen ◽  
K. S. Carslaw ◽  
U. Pöschl ◽  
A. Rap ◽  
P. M. Forster
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Pollution Sources ◽  
Aerosol Indirect Effect ◽  
Cloud Albedo ◽  
Combustion Particles ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Black carbon in carbonaceous combustion aerosol warms the climate by absorbing solar radiation, meaning reductions in black carbon emissions are often perceived as an attractive global warming mitigation option. However, carbonaceous combustion aerosol can also act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) so they also cool the climate by increasing cloud albedo. The net radiative effect of carbonaceous combustion aerosol is uncertain because their contribution to CCN has not been evaluated on the global scale. By combining extensive observations of CCN concentrations with the GLOMAP global aerosol model, we find that the model is biased low (normalised mean bias = −77 %) unless carbonaceous combustion aerosol act as CCN. We show that carbonaceous combustion aerosol accounts for more than half (52–64 %) of global CCN with the range due to uncertainty in the emitted size distribution of carbonaceous combustion particles. The model predicts that wildfire and pollution (fossil fuel and biofuel) carbonaceous combustion aerosol causes a global mean cloud albedo aerosol indirect effect of −0.34 W m−2, with stronger cooling if we assume smaller particle emission size. We calculate that carbonaceous combustion aerosol from pollution sources cause a global mean aerosol indirect effect of −0.23 W m−2. The small size of carbonaceous combustion particles from fossil fuel sources means that whilst pollution sources account for only one-third of the emitted mass they cause two-thirds of the cloud albedo aerosol indirect effect that is due to carbonaceous combustion aerosol. This cooling effect must be accounted for, along with other cloud effects not studied here, to ensure that black carbon emissions controls that reduce the high number concentrations of fossil fuel particles have the desired net effect on climate.

New Directions: The impact of oceanic iron fertilisation on cloud condensation nuclei

2008 ◽  
Vol 42 (22) ◽  
pp. 5728-5730 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew T. Woodhouse ◽  
Graham W. Mann ◽  
Kenneth S. Carslaw ◽  
Olivier Boucher
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Condensation Nuclei ◽  
New Directions ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Measured and modelled Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) concentration in São Paulo, Brazil: the importance of aerosol size-resolved chemical composition on CCN concentration prediction

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 32353-32389 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. P. Almeida ◽  
J. Brito ◽  
C. A. Morales ◽  
M. F. Andrade ◽  
P. Artaxo
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Composition ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Bulk Composition ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Aerosol Size Distribution ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Aerosol Composition ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), aerosol size distribution and non-refractory chemical composition were performed from 16 to 31 October 2012 in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA), Brazil. CCN measurements were performed at 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.6%, 0.8% and 1.0% water supersaturation and were subsequently compared with Köhler theory, considering the chemical composition. Real-time chemical composition has been obtained deploying for the first time in SPMA an Aerosol Chemical Ionization Monitor (ACSM). CCN closure analyses were performed considering internal mixture. Average aerosol composition during the studied period yielded 4.81 ± 3.05, 3.26 ± 2.10, 0.30 ± 0.27, 0.52 ± 0.32, 0.37 ± 0.21 and 0.04 ± 0.04 μg m−3 for organics, BC, NH4, SO4, NO3 and Cl, respectively. Particle number concentration was 12 813 ± 5350 cm−3, being a large fraction in the nucleation mode. CCN concentrations were on average 1090 ± 328 cm−3 and 3570 ± 1695 cm−3 at SS = 0.2% and SS = 1.0%, respectively. Results show an increase in aerosol hygroscopicity in the afternoon as a result of aerosol photochemical processing, leading to an enhancement of both organic and inorganic secondary aerosols in the atmosphere, as well as an increase in aerosol average diameter. Considering the bulk composition alone, CCN concentrations were substantially overpredicted (29.6 ± 45.1% at 0.2% supersaturation and 57.3 ± 30.0% at 1.0% supersaturation). Overall, the impact of composition on the calculated NCCN decreases with decreasing supersaturation, partially because using bulk composition introduces less bias for large diameters and lower critical supersaturations. Results suggest that the consideration of only inorganic fraction improves the calculated NCCN. Introducing a size-dependent chemical composition based on filter measurements from previous campaigns has considerably improved simulated values for NCCN (average overprediction error 3.0 ± 33.4% at 0.20% supersaturation and average under prediction error 2.4 ± 20.5% at 1.0% supersaturation). This study provides the first insight on aerosol real-time composition and hygroscopicity on a~site strongly impacted by emissions of a unique vehicular fleet due to the extensive biofuel usage.

Nonintrusive Global Sensitivity Analysis for Linear Systems With Process Noise

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Souransu Nandi ◽  
Tarunraj Singh
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Linear Systems ◽  
Global Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Benchmark Problems ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Parameter Uncertainties ◽  
Sobol Indices ◽  
Global Sensitivity ◽  
Time Invariant ◽  
The Impact

The focus of this paper is on the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of linear systems with time-invariant model parameter uncertainties and driven by stochastic inputs. The Sobol' indices of the evolving mean and variance estimates of states are used to assess the impact of the time-invariant uncertain model parameters and the statistics of the stochastic input on the uncertainty of the output. Numerical results on two benchmark problems help illustrate that it is conceivable that parameters, which are not so significant in contributing to the uncertainty of the mean, can be extremely significant in contributing to the uncertainty of the variances. The paper uses a polynomial chaos (PC) approach to synthesize a surrogate probabilistic model of the stochastic system after using Lagrange interpolation polynomials (LIPs) as PC bases. The Sobol' indices are then directly evaluated from the PC coefficients. Although this concept is not new, a novel interpretation of stochastic collocation-based PC and intrusive PC is presented where they are shown to represent identical probabilistic models when the system under consideration is linear. This result now permits treating linear models as black boxes to develop intrusive PC surrogates.

scholarly journals Sensitivity Studies on the Impact of Dust and Aerosol Pollution Acting as Cloud Nucleating Aerosol on Orographic Precipitation in the Colorado River Basin

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vandana Jha ◽  
William R. Cotton ◽  
Gustavo G. Carrió ◽  
Robert Walko
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Colorado River Basin ◽  
Orographic Precipitation ◽  
Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Aerosol Pollution ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we examine the cumulative effect of pollution aerosol and dust acting as cloud nucleating aerosol;cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), giant cloud condensation nuclei, and ice nuclei (IN), on orographic precipitation in the Rocky Mountains. We analyze the results of sensitivity studies for specific cases in 2004-2005 winter season to analyze the relative impact of aerosol pollution and dust acting as CCN and IN on precipitation in the Colorado River Basin. Dust is varied from 3 to 10 times in the experiments, and the response is found to be nonmonotonic and depends on various environmental factors. The sensitivity studies show that adding dust in a wet system increases precipitation when IN effects are dominant. For a relatively dry system high concentrations of dust can result in overseeding the clouds and reductions in precipitation. However, when adding dust to a system with warmer cloud bases where drizzle formation is active, the response is nonmonotonic.

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