scholarly journals Large scale integrated hydrological modelling of the impact of climate change on the water balance with DANUBIA

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Prasch ◽  
T. Marke ◽  
U. Strasser ◽  
W. Mauser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Future climate change will affect the water availability in large areas. In order to derive appropriate adaptation strategies the impact on the water balance has to be determined on a regional scale in a high spatial and temporal resolution. Within the framework of the BRAHMATWINN project the model system DANUBIA, developed within the project GLOWA Danube (GLOWA Danube, 2010; Mauser and Ludwig, 2002), was applied to calculate the water balance components under past and future climate conditions in the large-scale mountain watersheds of the Upper Danube and the Upper Brahmaputra. To use CLM model output data as meteorological drivers DANUBIA is coupled with the scaling tool SCALMET (Marke, 2008). For the determination of the impact of glacier melt water on the water balance the model SURGES (Weber et al., 2008; Prasch, 2010) is integrated into DANUBIA. In this paper we introduce the hydrological model DANUBIA with the tools SCALMET and SURGES. By means of the distributed hydrological time series for the past from 1971 to 2000 the model performance is presented. In order to determine the impact of climate change on the water balance in both catchments, time series from 2011 to 2080 according to the IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2, A1B, B2 and Commitment are analysed. Together with the socioeconomic outcomes (see Chapter 4) the DANUBIA model results provide the basis for the derivation of Integrated Water Resources Management Strategies to adapt to climate change impacts (see Chapter 9 and 10).

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on groundwater point discharge: backflooding of karstic springs (Loiret, France)

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 2235-2262
Author(s):  
E. Joigneaux ◽  
P. Albéric ◽  
H. Pauwels ◽  
C. Pagé ◽  
L. Terray ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Groundwater Quality ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Type ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. Under certain hydrological conditions it is possible for spring flow in karst systems to be reversed. When this occurs, the resulting invasion by surface water, i.e. the backflooding, represents a serious threat to groundwater quality because the surface water could well be contaminated. Here we examine the possible impact of future climate change on the occurrences of backflooding in a specific karst system, having first established the occurrence of such events in the selected study area over the past 40 yr. It would appear that backflooding has been more frequent since the 1980s, and that it is apparently linked to river flow variability on the pluri-annual scale. The avenue that we adopt here for studying recent and future variations of these events is based on a downscaling algorithm relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to local precipitation spatial patterns. The large-scale atmospheric circulation is viewed as a set of quasi-stationary and recurrent states, called weather types, and its variability as the transition between them. Based on a set of climate model projections, simulated changes in weather-type occurrence for the end of the century suggests that backflooding events can be expected to decrease in 2075–2099. If such is the case, then the potential risk for groundwater quality in the area will be greatly reduced compared to the current situation. Finally, our results also show the potential interest of the weather-type based downscaling approach for examining the impact of climate change on hydrological systems.

How to model the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases?

2021 ◽  
pp. 26-31
Author(s):  
Cyril Caminade
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Risk ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This expert opinion provides an overview of mathematical models that have been used to assess the impact of climate change on ticks and tick-borne diseases, ways forward in terms of improving models for the recent context and broad guidelines for conducting future climate change risk assessment.

scholarly journals Understanding Future Water Challenges in a Highly Regulated Indian River Basin—Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Narmada

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Rickards ◽  
Thomas Thomas ◽  
Alexandra Kaelin ◽  
Helen Houghton-Carr ◽  
Sharad K. Jain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Availability Assessment

The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin.

scholarly journals Are the effects of vegetation and soil changes as important as climate change impacts on hydrological processes?

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (12) ◽  
pp. 4933-4954 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kabir Rasouli ◽  
John W. Pomeroy ◽  
Paul H. Whitfield
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Runoff Volume ◽  
Mountain Basins ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soil Changes

Abstract. Hydrological processes are widely understood to be sensitive to changes in climate, but the effects of concomitant changes in vegetation and soils have seldom been considered in snow-dominated mountain basins. The response of mountain hydrology to vegetation/soil changes in the present and a future climate was modeled in three snowmelt-dominated mountain basins in the North American Cordillera. The models developed for each basin using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modeling platform employed current and expected changes to vegetation and soil parameters and were driven with recent and perturbed high-altitude meteorological observations. Monthly perturbations were calculated using the differences in outputs between the present- and a future-climate scenario from 11 regional climate models. In the three basins, future climate change alone decreased the modeled peak snow water equivalent (SWE) by 11 %–47 % and increased the modeled evapotranspiration by 14 %–20 %. However, including future changes in vegetation and soil for each basin changed or reversed these climate change outcomes. In Wolf Creek in the Yukon Territory, Canada, a statistically insignificant increase in SWE due to vegetation increase in the alpine zone was found to offset the statistically significant decrease in SWE due to climate change. In Marmot Creek in the Canadian Rockies, the increase in annual runoff due to the combined effect of soil and climate change was statistically significant, whereas their individual effects were not. In the relatively warmer Reynolds Mountain in Idaho, USA, vegetation change alone decreased the annual runoff volume by 8 %, but changes in soil, climate, or both did not affect runoff. At high elevations in Wolf and Marmot creeks, the model results indicated that vegetation/soil changes moderated the impact of climate change on peak SWE, the timing of peak SWE, evapotranspiration, and the annual runoff volume. However, at medium elevations, these changes intensified the impact of climate change, further decreasing peak SWE and sublimation. The hydrological impacts of changes in climate, vegetation, and soil in mountain environments were similar in magnitude but not consistent in direction for all biomes; in some combinations, this resulted in enhanced impacts at lower elevations and latitudes and moderated impacts at higher elevations and latitudes.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on groundwater point discharge: backflooding of karstic springs (Loiret, France)

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 2459-2470 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Joigneaux ◽  
P. Albéric ◽  
H. Pauwels ◽  
C. Pagé ◽  
L. Terray ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Groundwater Quality ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Type ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. Under certain hydrological conditions it is possible for spring flow in karst systems to be reversed. When this occurs, the resulting invasion by surface water, i.e. the backflooding, represents a serious threat to groundwater quality because the surface water could well be contaminated. Here we examine the possible impact of future climate change on the occurrences of backflooding in a specific karst system, having first established the occurrence of such events in the selected study area over the past 40 years. It would appear that backflooding has been more frequent since the 1980s, and that it is apparently linked to river flow variability on the pluri-annual scale. The avenue that we adopt here for studying recent and future variations of these events is based on a downscaling algorithm relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to local precipitation spatial patterns. The large-scale atmospheric circulation is viewed as a set of quasi-stationary and recurrent states, called weather types, and its variability as the transition between them. Based on a set of climate model projections, simulated changes in weather-type occurrence for the end of the century suggests that backflooding events can be expected to decrease in 2075–2099. If such is the case, then the potential risk for groundwater quality in the area will be greatly reduced compared to the current situation. Finally, our results also show the potential interest of the weather-type based downscaling approach for examining the impact of climate change on hydrological systems.

scholarly journals Potential Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Egypt

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 1715
Author(s):  
Soha M. Mostafa ◽  
Osama Wahed ◽  
Walaa Y. El-Nashar ◽  
Samia M. El-Marsafawy ◽  
Martina Zeleňáková ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents a comprehensive study to assess the impact of climate change on Egypt’s water resources, focusing on irrigation water for agricultural crops, considering that the agriculture sector is the largest consumer of water in Egypt. The study aims to estimate future climate conditions using general circulation models (GCMs), to assess the impact of climate change and temperature increase on water demands for irrigation using the CROPWAT 8 model, and to determine the suitable irrigation type to adapt with future climate change. A case study was selected in the Middle part of Egypt. The study area includes Giza, Bani-Sweif, Al-Fayoum, and Minya governorates. The irrigation water requirements for major crops under current weather conditions and future climatic changes were estimated. Under the conditions of the four selected models CCSM-30, GFDLCM20, GFDLCM21, and GISS-EH, as well as the chosen scenario of A1BAIM, climate model (MAGICC/ScenGen) was applied in 2050 and 2100 to estimate the potential rise in the annual mean temperature in Middle Egypt. The results of the MAGICC/SceGen model indicated that the potential rise in temperature in the study area will be 2.12 °C in 2050, and 3.96 °C in 2100. The percentage of increase in irrigation water demands for winter crops under study ranged from 6.1 to 7.3% in 2050, and from 11.7 to 13.2% in 2100. At the same time, the increase in irrigation water demands for summer crops ranged from 4.9 to 5.8% in 2050, and from 9.3 to 10.9% in 2100. For Nili crops, the increase ranged from 5.0 to 5.1% in 2050, and from 9.6 to 9.9% in 2100. The increase in water demands due to climate change will affect the water security in Egypt, as the available water resources are limited, and population growth is another challenge which requires a proper management of water resources.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on potential distribution of xero-epiphytic selaginellas (Selaginella involvens and S. repanda) in Southeast Asia

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1680-1695
Author(s):  
AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN ◽  
JATNA SUPRIATNA ◽  
DEDY DARNAEDI ◽  
ROKHMATULOH ROKHMATULOH ◽  
SUTARNO SUTARNO ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Medium ◽  
Lower Altitude ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Darnaedi D, Rokhmatuloh, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Nursamsi I, Komala WR, Pradan P. 2017. Impact of climate change on potential distribution of xero-epiphytic selaginellas (Selaginella involvens and S. repanda) in Southeast Asia. Biodiversitas 18: 1680-1695. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges for all life on earth, as it may become the dominant driver of changes in ecosystem services and biodiversity loss at the global level. Selaginella is a group of spike-mosses that seem easily affected by global warming (climate change) due to requiring water medium for fertilization. However, some species have been adapted to dry condition and may grow as epiphytes, such as S. involvens and S. repanda. Both species are commonly found in opposing a range of elevation. S. involvens is often found in high-altitude regions, whereas S. repanda is often found at lower-altitude regions. The difference in this altitudinal distributions is expected to limit redistribution mechanism of each species to adapt the climate change projections. This study model examines the potential geographic distribution of S. involvens and S. repanda under current climatic conditions and models the impact of projected climate change on their potential distribution. Future climate predictions are made with four detailed bioclimatic scenarios (i.e. RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) and three-time intervals (2030, 2050, 2080), which combine various climatic factors. In this modeling, it can be concluded that S. involvens and S. repanda can adapt to future climate change, and continue to be sustainable, although it is strongly influenced and shifting habitat distribution in some areas.

scholarly journals Are the effects of vegetation and soil changes as important as climate change impacts on hydrological processes?

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kabir Rasouli ◽  
John W. Pomeroy ◽  
Paul H. Whitfield
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Runoff Volume ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soil Changes

Abstract. Hydrological processes are widely understood to be sensitive to changes in climate, but the effects of changes in vegetation and soils have seldom been considered. The response of mountain hydrology to future climate and vegetation/soil changes is modelled in three snowmelt dominated mountain basins in the North American Cordillera. A Cold Regions Hydrological Model developed for each basin was driven with perturbed observed meteorological time series. Monthly perturbations were developed from differences in eleven regional climate model outputs between the present and future scenarios. Future climate change in these basins results in decreased modelled peak snow water equivalent (SWE) but increased evapotranspiration in all basins. All three watersheds became more rainfall-dominated. In Wolf Creek in the Yukon Territory, an insignificant increasing effect of vegetation change on peak SWE was found to be important enough to offset the significant climate change effect on alpine snow. In Marmot Creek in the Canadian Rockies, a combined effect of soil and climate changes on increasing annual runoff becomes significant while their individual effects are not statistically significant. In the relatively warmer Reynolds Mountain East catchment in Idaho, USA, only vegetation change decreases annual runoff volume and changes in soil, climate, or combination of them do not affect runoff. At high elevations in Wolf and Marmot Creeks, modelled vegetation/soil changes moderated the impact of climate change on peak SWE, the timing of peak SWE, evapotranspiration, and annual runoff volume. At medium elevations, these changes intensified the impact of climate change, decreasing peak SWE, and sublimation. The modelled hydrological impacts of changes in climate, vegetation, and soil in mountain environments are similar in magnitude but not consistently in the direction in all biomes; in some combinations, this results in enhanced impacts at lower elevations and latitudes and offsetting effects at higher elevations and latitudes.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Daily Extreme Peak and Low Flows of Zenne Basin in Belgium

Hydrology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olkeba Leta ◽  
Willy Bauwens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
The Impact

Integrating hydrology with climate is essential for a better understanding of the impact of present and future climate on hydrological extremes, which may cause frequent flooding, drought, and shortage of water supply. This study assessed the impact of future climate change on the hydrological extremes (peak and low flows) of the Zenne river basin (Belgium). The objectives were to assess how climate change impacts basin-wide extreme flows and to provide a detailed overview of the impacts of four future climate change scenarios compared to the control (baseline) values. The scenarios are high (wet) summer (projects a future with high storm rain in summer), high (wet) winter (predicts a future with high rainfall in winter), mean (considers a future with intermediate climate conditions), and low (dry) (projects a future with low rainfall during winter and summer). These scenarios were projected by using the Climate Change Impact on HYDRological extremes perturbation tool (CCI-HYDR), which was (primarily) developed for Belgium to study climate change. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict the impact of climate change on hydrological extremes by the 2050s (2036–2065) and the 2080s (2066–2095) by perturbing the historical daily data of 1961–1990. We found that the four climate change scenarios show quite different impacts on extreme peak and low flows. The extreme peak flows are expected to increase by as much as 109% under the wet summer scenario, which could increase adverse effects, such as flooding and disturbance of the riverine ecosystem functioning of the river. On the other hand, the low (dry) scenario is projected to cause a significant decrease in both daily extreme peak and low flows, by as much as 169% when compared to the control values, which would cause problems, such as droughts, reduction in agricultural crop productivity, and increase in drinking water and other water use demands. More importantly, larger negative changes in low flows are predicted in the downstream part of the basin where a higher groundwater contribution is expected, indicating the sensitivity of a basin to the impact of climate change may vary spatially and depend on basin characteristic. Overall, an amplified, as well as an earlier, occurrence of hydrological droughts is expected towards the end of this century, suggesting that water resources managers, planners, and decision makers should prepare appropriate mitigation measures for climate change for the Zenne and similar basins.

Assessment of Drought due to Historic Climate Variability and Projected Future Climate Change in the Midwestern United States

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vimal Mishra ◽  
Keith A. Cherkauer ◽  
Shraddhanand Shukla
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Vic Model

Abstract Understanding the occurrence and variability of drought events in historic and projected future climate is essential to managing natural resources and setting policy. The Midwest region is a key contributor in corn and soybean production, and the occurrence of droughts may affect both quantity and quality of these crops. Soil moisture observations play an essential role in understanding the severity and persistence of drought. Considering the scarcity of the long-term soil moisture datasets, soil moisture observations in Illinois have been one of the best datasets for studies of soil moisture. In the present study, the authors use the existing observational dataset and then reconstruct long-term historic time series (1916–2007) of soil moisture data using a land surface model to study the effects of historic climate variability and projected future climate change on regional-scale (Illinois and Indiana) drought. The objectives of this study are to (i) estimate changes and trends associated with climate variables in historic climate variability (1916–2007) and in projected future climate change (2009–99) and (ii) identify regional-scale droughts and associated severity, areal extent, and temporal extent under historic and projected future climate using reconstructed soil moisture data and gridded climatology for the period 1916–2007 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The authors reconstructed the soil moisture for a long-term (1916–2007) historic time series using the VIC model, which was calibrated for monthly streamflow and soil moisture at eight U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauge stations and Illinois Climate Network’s (ICN) soil moisture stations, respectively, and then it was evaluated for soil moisture, persistence of soil moisture, and soil temperature and heat fluxes. After calibration and evaluation, the VIC model was implemented for historic (1916–2007) and projected future climate (2009–99) periods across the study domain. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test was used to estimate trends using the gridded climatology of precipitation and air temperature variables. Trends were also estimated for annual anomalies of soil moisture variables, snow water equivalent, and total runoff using a long-term time series of the historic period. Results indicate that precipitation, minimum air temperature, total column soil moisture, and runoff have experienced upward trends, whereas maximum air temperature, frozen soil moisture, and snow water equivalent experienced downward trends. Furthermore, the decreasing trends were significant for the frozen soil moisture in the study domain. The results demonstrate that retrospective drought periods and their severity were reconstructed using model-simulated data. Results also indicate that the study region is experiencing reduced extreme and exceptional droughts with lesser areal extent in recent decades.

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