Supplementary material to "A Bayesian sequential updating approach to predict phenology of silage maize"

A Bayesian sequential updating approach to predict phenology of silage maize

10.5194/bg-2021-238 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Michelle Viswanathan ◽

Tobias K. D. Weber ◽

Sebastian Gayler ◽

Juliane Mai ◽

Thilo Streck

Keyword(s):

Parameter Uncertainty ◽

Prediction Error ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Observation Data ◽

Calibration Data ◽

Time Step ◽

Validation Data ◽

Automatic Data ◽

Silage Maize ◽

Sequential Updating

Abstract. Crop models are tools used for predicting year to year crop development on field to regional scales. However, robust predictions are hampered by factors such as uncertainty in crop model parameters and in the data used for calibration. Bayesian calibration allows for the estimation of model parameters and quantification of uncertainties, with the consideration of prior information. In this study, we used a Bayesian sequential updating (BSU) approach to progressively incorporate additional data at a yearly time-step to calibrate a phenology model (SPASS) while analysing changes in parameter uncertainty and prediction quality. We used field measurements of silage maize grown between 2010 and 2016 in the regions of Kraichgau and Swabian Alb in southwestern Germany. Parameter uncertainty and model prediction errors were expected to progressively reduce to a final, irreducible value. Parameter uncertainty reduced as expected with the sequential updates. For two sequences using synthetic data, one in which the model was able to accurately simulate the observations, and the other in which a single cultivar was grown under the same environmental conditions, prediction error mostly reduced. However, in the true sequences that followed the actual chronological order of cultivation by the farmers in the two regions, prediction error increased when the calibration data was not representative of the validation data. This could be explained by differences in ripening group and temperature conditions during vegetative growth. With implications for manual and automatic data streams and model updating, our study highlights that the success of Bayesian methods for predictions depends on a comprehensive understanding of inherent structure in the observation data and model limitations.

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Optimizing genotype-environment-management interactions to ensure silage maize production in the Chinese Maize Belt

Climate Research ◽

10.3354/cr01599 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 80 (2) ◽

pp. 133-146

Author(s):

L Zhang ◽

Z Zhang ◽

J Cao ◽

Y Luo ◽

Z Li

Keyword(s):

Field Experiments ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Growth Cycle ◽

High Energy ◽

Risk Level ◽

Energy Yield ◽

Maize Production ◽

Early Date ◽

Environment Management ◽

Silage Maize

Grain maize production exceeds the demand for grain maize in China. Methods for harvesting good-quality silage maize urgently need a theoretical basis and reference data in order to ensure its benefits to farmers. However, research on silage maize is limited, and very few studies have focused on its energetic value and quality. Here, we calibrated the CERES-Maize model for 24 cultivars with 93 field experiments and then performed a long-term (1980-2017) simulation to optimize genotype-environment-management (G-E-M) interactions in the 4 main agroecological zones across China. We found that CERES-Maize could reproduce the growth and development of maize well under various management and weather conditions with a phenology bias of <5 d and biomass relative root mean square error values of <5%. The simulated results showed that sowing long-growth-cycle cultivars approximately 10 d in advance could yield good-quality silage. The optimal sowing dates (from late May to July) and harvest dates (from early October to mid-November) gradually became later from north to south. A high-energy yield was expected when sowing at an early date and/or with late-maturing cultivars. We found that Northeast China and the North China Plain were potential silage maize growing areas, although these areas experienced a medium or even high frost risk. Southwestern maize experienced a low risk level, but the low soil fertility limited the attainable yield. The results of this paper provide information for designing an optimal G×E×M strategy to ensure silage maize production in the Chinese Maize Belt.

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Designing Workbook for Teaching Writing Descriptive Text Based on Scientific Approach

JELTIM (Journal of English Language Teaching Innovations and Materials) ◽

10.26418/jeltim.v1i2.26969 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 59

Author(s):

Indah Pratiwi ◽

Yanti Sri Rezeki

Keyword(s):

Teaching Writing ◽

English Teacher ◽

Design Development ◽

Seventh Grade ◽

Internal Evaluation ◽

Writing Ability ◽

Good Book ◽

Scientific Approach ◽

Supplementary Material ◽

Analysis Design

This research aims to design workbook based on the scientific approach for teaching writing descriptive text. This research was conducted on the seventh-grade students of SMPN 24 Pontianak. The method of this research is ADDIE (Analysis, Design, Development, Implementation, and Evaluation) with the exclusion of Implementation and Evaluation phases. This material was designed as supplementary material to support the course book used especially in teaching writing of descriptive text. The respondents in this research were the seventh-grade students and an English teacher at SMPN 24 Pontianak. In this research, the researchers found that workbook based on scientific approach fulfilled the criteria of the good book to teach writing descriptive text. The researchers conducted an internal evaluation to see the usability and the feasibility of the workbook. The result of the evaluation is 89%. It showed that the workbook is feasible to be used by students as the supplementary material to support the main course book and help the students improve their writing ability in descriptive text.

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Catalytic Fluorination of Boron Compounds at a Bismuth Redox Platform

10.26434/chemrxiv.9729143 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Oriol Planas ◽

Feng Wang ◽

Markus Leutzsch ◽

Josep Cornella

Keyword(s):

Transition Metal ◽

Main Group ◽

Group Element ◽

Oxidation States ◽

Boron Compounds ◽

Main Text ◽

Main Group Element ◽

Rational Ligand Design ◽

Supplementary Material

The ability of bismuth to maneuver between different oxidation states in a catalytic redox cycle, mimicking the canonical organometallic steps associated to a transition metal, is an elusive and unprecedented approach in the field of homogeneous catalysis. Herein we present a catalytic protocol based on bismuth, a benign and sustainable main-group element, capable of performing every organometallic step in the context of oxidative fluorination of boron compounds; a territory reserved to transition metals. A rational ligand design featuring hypervalent coordination together with a mechanistic understanding of the fundamental steps, permitted a catalytic fluorination protocol based on a Bi(III)/Bi(V) redox couple, which represents a unique example where a main-group element is capable of outperforming its transition metal counterparts.<br>A main text and supplementary material have been attached as pdf files containing all the methodology, techniques and characterization of the compounds reported.<br>

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Good Management Practices in Managing the Most Important Factors to Ensure Dureble Soil Quality

Revista de Chimie ◽

10.37358/rc.17.10.5884 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 68 (10) ◽

pp. 2350-2357

Author(s):

George Ungureanu ◽

Gabriela Ignat ◽

Eduard Boghita ◽

Luiza Costuleanu ◽

Catalin Razvan Vintu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Development ◽

Management Practices ◽

Programming Model ◽

Farming Systems ◽

Economic Incentives ◽

Silage Maize ◽

Cash Crops ◽

Raising Awareness ◽

Fodder Grass ◽

Alfalfa Silage

The importance of sustainable development has started to be acknowledged in Romania as well, once the various pollution sources and the restrictions affecting industrial and agricultural pollution were identified, from an economic and ecological standpoint. Sustainable development represents the need of raising awareness about environmental protection and educating people, and this aspect is reflected by the evolution of communal policies in recent years, policies marked by a shift from an approach based on constraints and sanctions to a higher level of flexibility, based on incentives. The purpose of this paper is to make a recommendation for improving existing policy by making an assessment of economic incentives in order to stimulate farmers to adopt sustainable farming systems of a viable, sustainable agriculture, capable to apply the newest technologies and lead to profit and efficiency, to the economical and organizational consolidation. To analyse the effects of different zone packages on income of farmers and the environment a linear programming model is developed for a typical, 192 ha mixed farm in the Iasi region plain pilot area. The major activities of the farm is keeping dairy cattle, growing fodder (grass, alfalfa, silage maize) and cash crops (winter wheat and maize).

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