A sub-regional approach for the analysis of atmospheric teleconnection influence on precipitation in Calabria (southern Italy)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giulio Nils Caroletti ◽  
Roberto Coscarelli ◽  
Tommaso Caloiero
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Eastern Zone ◽  
Teleconnection Indices ◽  
Western Zone ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Mediterranean Oscillation

<p>Due to the importance of precipitation as a climatic and meteorological variable, it is paramount to detect the relationships between teleconnections and precipitation at different temporal and spatial scale. In fact, large-scale systems can i) influence precipitation directly, ii) establish a favourable environment to deep moist convection, and thus extreme precipitation, but also iii) help triggering dry conditions and drought.</p><p>In this study, developed within the INDECIS EU project, the teleconnection influence on precipitation in the Calabria region has been evaluated over the 1981-2010 time period, by means of a database of 79 rain gauge stations and seven teleconnections indices. Calabria, the southernmost region of peninsular Italy, was chosen as a valuable test bed mainly because it is located in the centre of the Mediterranean region, which constitutes a hot spot for climate change. Moreover, Calabria has a high-density, long-time network of precipitation gauges, recently validated and homogenized.</p><p>Statistical relationships between teleconnection indices and precipitation are often developed through well-known correlation analyses techniques, e.g. Pearson, Spearman and Kendall, where a teleconnection index is compared to cumulated precipitation values. In this study, three types of correlation analysis were performed: i) seasonal indices vs seasonal cumulated precipitation; ii) three-month indices vs monthly cumulated precipitation; iii) monthly indices vs monthly cumulated precipitation. These analyses have been performed in five Rainfall Zones (RZs) of the study area, characterised by different climatic conditions: the North-Eastern Zone (I1), the Central-Eastern Zone (I2) and the South-Eastern Zone (I3) on the Ionian side of Calabria and the North-Western Zone (T1) and the South-Western Zone (T2) on the Tyrrhenian part.</p><p>Results showed that the Mediterranean Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation are the most important large-scale contributors to the precipitation regime of Calabria. Moreover, seasonal Eastern Atlantic pattern influenced seasonal precipitation in the RZs I1 and T1; three-monthly East Atlantic/Western Russian pattern influenced monthly precipitation in the RZs I2 and T1; three-monthly Western Mediterranean Oscillation influenced monthly precipitation in the RZs I3 and T1; while three-monthly El Nino-Southern Oscillation influenced monthly precipitation in the RZ T2.</p><p>Investigating changes in the response of local precipitation and teleconnections throughout the 1951-2010 and 1951-1980 time periods, a change in precipitation response to teleconnection patterns emerged, i.e., in the impact that the Mediterranean Oscillation has on the East coast precipitation (RZs I1-I3), a possible result of natural variation or climate change. In addition, these results have been compared to those obtained with the classical correlation analyses between teleconnection indices and single-station precipitation.</p><p>The approach developed for this study is a general method that, in principle, can be reproduced for any variable for any region and for every teleconnection.</p><p>Acknowledgments:</p><p>The Project INDECIS is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462).</p>

scholarly journals Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

scholarly journals Climatic Indices over the Mediterranean Sea: A Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (17) ◽  
pp. 5790
Author(s):  
Francisco Criado-Aldeanueva ◽  
Javier Soto-Navarro
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
Physical Point ◽  
Climatic Indices ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Mediterranean Oscillation

The Mediterranean Sea, strategically situated across a dynamic frontier line that separates two regions with different climates (Europe and North Africa), has been the focus of attention of many studies dealing with its thermohaline circulation, deep water formation processes or heat and freshwater budgets. Large-scale atmospheric forcing has been found to play an important role in these topics and attention has been renewed in climatic indices that can be used as a proxy for atmospheric variability. Among them, the North Atlantic oscillation, the East Atlantic or the East Atlantic–West Russia patterns have been widely addressed but much less attention has been devoted to a Mediterranean mode, the Mediterranean oscillation. This overview summarizes the recent advances that have been achieved in the understanding of these climatic indices and their influence on the functioning of the Mediterranean from a physical point of view. The important role of the Mediterranean oscillation is emphasized and the most relevant aspects of the other indices are revisited and discussed.

scholarly journals Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 172
Author(s):  
Yuan Xu ◽  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
Mingyang Sun ◽  
Weixing Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Output Elasticity ◽  
The Impact

Quantitatively assessing the spatial divergence of the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change is of great significance for reducing the climate change risk to food production. We use socio-economic and climatic data from 1981 to 2015 to examine how climate variability led to variation in yield, as simulated by an economy–climate model (C-D-C). The sensitivity of crop yield to the impact of climate change refers to the change in yield caused by changing climatic factors under the condition of constant non-climatic factors. An ‘output elasticity of comprehensive climate factor (CCF)’ approach determines the sensitivity, using the yields per hectare for grain, rice, wheat and maize in China’s main grain-producing areas as a case study. The results show that the CCF has a negative trend at a rate of −0.84/(10a) in the North region, while a positive trend of 0.79/(10a) is observed for the South region. Climate change promotes the ensemble increase in yields, and the contribution of agricultural labor force and total mechanical power to yields are greater, indicating that the yield in major grain-producing areas mainly depends on labor resources and the level of mechanization. However, the sensitivities to climate change of different crop yields to climate change present obvious regional differences: the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for maize in the North region was stronger than that in the South region. Therefore, the increase in the yield per hectare for maize in the North region due to the positive impacts of climate change was greater than that in the South region. In contrast, the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for rice in the South region was stronger than that in the North region. Furthermore, the sensitivity to climate change of maize per hectare yield was stronger than that of rice and wheat in the North region, and that of rice was the highest of the three crop yields in the South region. Finally, the economy–climate sensitivity zones of different crops were determined by the output elasticity of the CCF to help adapt to climate change and prevent food production risks.

Climatology and Trends of Climate Extremes of Temperature and Precipitation in Belo Monte Hydropower Plant – Eastern Amazon, Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanderson Luiz-Silva ◽  
Pedro Regoto ◽  
Camila Ferreira de Vasconcellos ◽  
Felipe Bevilaqua Foldes Guimarães ◽  
Katia Cristina Garcia
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
The South ◽  
North Central ◽  
Adaptation Capacity ◽  
The North ◽  
South Central ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Belo Monte

<p>This research aims to support studies related to the adaptation capacity of the Amazon region to climate change. The Belo Monte Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) is in the Xingu River basin, in eastern Amazonia. Deforestation coupled with changes in water bodies that occurred in the drainage area of Belo Monte HPP over the past few decades can significantly influence the hydroclimatic features and, consequently, ecosystems and energy generation in the region. In this context, we analyze the climatology and trends of climate extremes in this area. The climate information comes from daily data in grid points of 0.25° x 0.25° for the period 1980-2013, available in http://careyking.com/data-downloads/. A set of 17 climate extremes indices based on daily data of maximum temperature (TX), minimum temperature (TN), and precipitation (PRCP) was calculated through the RClimDex software, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The Mann-Kendall and the Sen’s Curvature tests are used to assess the statistical significance and the magnitude of the trends, respectively. The drainage area of the Belo Monte HPP is dominated by two climatic types: an equatorial climate in the north-central portion of the basin, with high temperatures and little variation throughout the year (22°C to 32°C), in addition to more frequent precipitation; and a tropical climate in the south-central sector, which experiences slightly more pronounced temperature variations throughout the year (20°C to 33°C) and presents a more defined wet and dry periods. The south-central portion of the basin exhibits the highest temperature extremes, with the highest TX and the lowest TN of the year occurring in this area, both due to the predominant days of clear skies in the austral winter, as to the advance of intense masses of polar air at this period. The diurnal temperature range is lower in the north-central sector when compared to that in the south-central region since the first has greater cloud cover and a higher frequency of precipitation. The largest annual rainfall volumes are concentrated at the north and west sides (more than 1,800 mm) and the precipitation extremes are heterogeneous across the basin. The maximum number of consecutive dry days increases from the north (10 to 20 days) to the south (90 to 100 days). The annual frequency of warm days and nights is increasing significantly in a large part of the basin with a magnitude ranging predominantly from +7 to +19 days/decade. The annual rainfall shows a predominant elevation sign of up to +200 mm/decade only in the northern part of the basin, while the remainder shows a reduction of up to -100 mm/decade. The duration of drought periods increases in the south-central sector of the basin, reaching up to +13 days/decade in some areas. The results of this study will be used in the future as an important input, together with exposure, sensibility, and local adaptation capacity, to design adaptation strategies that are more consistent with local reality and to the needs of local communities.</p>

scholarly journals Rates of consumption of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> through the weathering of loess during the next 100 yr of climate change

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Goddéris ◽  
S. L. Brantley ◽  
L. M. François ◽  
J. Schott ◽  
D. Pollard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reaction Front ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Co2 Production ◽  
Depth Interval ◽  
Mississippi Valley ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Quantifying how C fluxes will change in the future is a complex task for models because of the coupling between climate, hydrology, and biogeochemical reactions. Here we investigate how pedogenesis of the Peoria loess, which has been weathering for the last 13 kyr, will respond over the next 100 yr of climate change. Using a cascade of numerical models for climate (ARPEGE), vegetation (CARAIB) and weathering (WITCH), we explore the effect of an increase in CO2 of 315 ppmv (1950) to 700 ppmv (2100 projection). The increasing CO2 results in an increase in temperature along the entire transect. In contrast, drainage increases slightly for a focus pedon in the south but decreases strongly in the north. These two variables largely determine the behavior of weathering. In addition, although CO2 production rate increases in the soils in response to global warming, the rate of diffusion back to the atmosphere also increases, maintaining a roughly constant or even decreasing CO2 concentration in the soil gas phase. Our simulations predict that temperature increasing in the next 100 yr causes the weathering rates of the silicates to increase into the future. In contrast, the weathering rate of dolomite – which consumes most of the CO2 – decreases in both end members (south and north) of the transect due to its retrograde solubility. We thus infer slower rates of advance of the dolomite reaction front into the subsurface, and faster rates of advance of the silicate reaction front. However, additional simulations for 9 pedons located along the north–south transect show that the dolomite weathering advance rate will increase in the central part of the Mississippi Valley, owing to a maximum in the response of vertical drainage to the ongoing climate change. The carbonate reaction front can be likened to a terrestrial lysocline because it represents a depth interval over which carbonate dissolution rates increase drastically. However, in contrast to the lower pH and shallower lysocline expected in the oceans with increasing atmospheric CO2, we predict a deeper lysocline in future soils. Furthermore, in the central Mississippi Valley, soil lysocline deepening accelerates but in the south and north the deepening rate slows. This result illustrates the complex behavior of carbonate weathering facing short term global climate change. Predicting the global response of terrestrial weathering to increased atmospheric CO2 and temperature in the future will mostly depend upon our ability to make precise assessments of which areas of the globe increase or decrease in precipitation and soil drainage.

scholarly journals Global change affects differently at local scales animal populations: why Starlings still expands to the south while other temperate species go to the north?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Rodriguez ◽  
Giuseppe La Gioia ◽  
Patricia Le Quilliec ◽  
Damien Fourcy ◽  
Philippe Clergeau
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Sturnus Vulgaris ◽  
European Starling ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Animal Populations ◽  
The World ◽  
Landscape Transformations

Global change, which regroups global warming, landscape transformations and other anthropic modifications of ecosystems, has effects on populations and communities and produces modifications in the expansion area of species. While some species disappear, other ones are beneficiated by the new conditions and some of them evolve in new adapted forms or leave their ancient distribution area. As climate change tends to increase the temperature in several regions of the world, some species have been seen to leave areas in equatorial regions in order to join colder areas either towards the north of the northern hemisphere or towards the south of the southern one. Many birds as have moved geographically in direction to the poles and in many cases they have anticipated their laying dates. Actually, two tit species that use to lay their eggs in a period that their fledging dates synchronize with the emerging dates of caterpillars are now evolving to reproductive in periods earlier than before the climate change. Several species are reacting like that and other ones are moving to the north in Europe for example. Nevertheless, and very curiously, European starling, Sturnus vulgaris, populations are behaving on the contrary: their laying dates are moving towards later spring and their distribution area is moving towards the south. In this study we explore and discuss about different factors that may explain this difference from other birds.

Large-scale drivers of the Mediterranean climate change hot-spot

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Brogli ◽  
Silje Lund Sørland ◽  
Nico Kröner ◽  
Christoph Schär
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Summer Climate ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Summer Warming ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Circulation Changes

&lt;div&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;It has long been recognized that the Mediterranean is a &amp;#8216;hot-spot&amp;#8217; of climate change. The model-projected year-round precipitation decline and amplified summer warming are among the leading causes of the vulnerability of the Mediterranean to greenhouse gas-driven warming. We investigate large-scale drivers influencing both the Mediterranean drying and summer warming in regional climate simulations. To isolate the influence of multiple large-scale drivers, we sequentially add the respective drivers from global models to regional climate model simulations. Additionally, we confirm the robustness of our results across multiple ensembles of global and regional climate simulations.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;We will present in detail how changes in the atmospheric stratification are key in causing the amplified Mediterranean summer warming. Together with the land-ocean warming contrast, stratification changes also drive the summer precipitation decline. Summer circulation changes generally have a surprisingly small influence on the changing Mediterranean summer climate. In contrast, changes in the circulation are the primary driver for the projected winter precipitation decline. Since land-ocean contrast and stratification changes are more robust in global climate simulations than circulation changes, we argue that the uncertainty associated with the projected climate change patterns should be considered smaller in summer than in winter.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;References:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;Brogli, R., S. L. S&amp;#248;rland, N. Kr&amp;#246;ner, and C. Sch&amp;#228;r, 2019: Causes of future Mediterranean precipitation decline depend on the season. Environmental Research Letters, 14, 114017, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4438.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;Brogli, R., N. Kr&amp;#246;ner, S. L. S&amp;#248;rland, D. L&amp;#252;thi and C. Sch&amp;#228;r, 2019: The Role of Hadley Circulation and Lapse-Rate Changes for the Future European Summer Climate. Journal of Climate, 32, 385-404, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0431.1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/div&gt;

The Mediterranean and climate change: An online participatory simulation – Results from the front lines

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Crookall ◽  
Isabel Caballero-Leiva ◽  
Laksh Sharma ◽  
Pimnutcha Promduangsri ◽  
Pariphat Promduangsri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Professional Growth ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Interaction ◽  
Free Form ◽  
Great Success ◽  
Feedback Form ◽  
Ocean Science ◽  
Participatory Simulation ◽  
The Mediterranean

&lt;p&gt;Modern, educational simulation/games (s/g) have a rich legacy, stretching back to the 1960s.&amp;#160; They are used today for communicating science in educational, environmental or governmental organizations.&amp;#160; Other uses are to help groups and organizations conduct research, solve complex problems or make collective decisions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Over the last two decades, a particularly powerful, but underused, form of s/g has developed, called participatory simulation (PS).&amp;#160; It contains (elements of) game, simulation, role-play, experience, human interaction, decision-making, negotiation, engagement, stakeholder, etc.&amp;#160; It is often large scale, open ended, goal and results oriented, free form and data driven.&amp;#160; Of course, debriefing is a crucial component.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Last summer (2020), the International Oceans-Climate School (IOCS), of the Ocean Open University (OOP), France, planned to organize an in-person summer school with a PS as its capstone event.&amp;#160; We then postponed and made it an autumn school.&amp;#160; It then became clear that this also was impossible, and so, after some hesitation, we scrambled to turn it into an online PS (OPS).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The theme was &amp;#8220;&lt;em&gt;The Mediterranean and climate change: Impacts, people, action&lt;/em&gt;&amp;#8221;.&amp;#160; Our overarching goal was to help participants understand the &lt;strong&gt;oceans-climate nexus&lt;/strong&gt; and to become better &lt;strong&gt;ocean-climate-literate stakeholders&lt;/strong&gt;.&amp;#160; The IOCS is an official event of the &lt;strong&gt;Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission&lt;/strong&gt; (IOC) of UNESCO, as part of the &lt;strong&gt;UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development&lt;/strong&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The school ran over three days, with the OPS over two days.&amp;#160; We searched for a platform that would accommodate the flexibility needed for the OPS; we chose Discord.&amp;#160; We had participants originating from Brazil, France, India, Italy, Iran, Spain, Tunisia and the UK; ages ranged from 19 to 60 years.&amp;#160; It was a great success.&amp;#160; A detailed, online feedback form two weeks after the event collected participants&amp;#8217; opinions, including:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;em&gt;&amp;#8220;It was a wonderful experience.&amp;#8221;, :I felt very good with all the participants.&amp;#8221;, &amp;#8220;When I describe the experience to friends I always say that it was something really useful for my personal and professional growth.&amp;#8221;, &amp;#8220;It was a very enriching experience for me to meet all these people with different training and knowledge, coming from different countries.&amp;#8221;, &amp;#8220;Enriching moments, so much more to discover.&amp;#8221;, &amp;#8220;What a great experience! I felt happy, engaged and surrounded by beautiful minds.&amp;#8221;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;We will run the event again in the Spring and the late summer or autumn, with different geoscience themes.&amp;#160; The success of the October 2020 event raises several research questions, including:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;How do the online and the in-person versions compare?&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;What are the advantages and drawbacks of each?&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Which is more effective for what objectives and what results?&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;How do the two versions stack up in regard to conducting research on such events?&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;What are the implications of OPS for geoliteracy?&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;Our presentation will describe the event in more detail, offer tentative answers to the above questions, and help you decide if you wish to participate in the next event.&amp;#160; Co-authors include both organizers and participants.&lt;/p&gt;

Middle Bronze Age Long Distance Exchange through Europe and Beyond

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 266-274
Author(s):  
Flemming Kaul
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Composition ◽  
Bronze Age ◽  
Glass Beads ◽  
The South ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Blue Glass ◽  
The North ◽  
Southern Scandinavia ◽  
Middle Bronze Age ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract The introduction of the folding stool and the single-edged razor into Southern Scandinavia, as well as the testimony of chariot use during the Nordic Bronze Age Period II (1500-1300 BC), give evidence of the transfer of ideas from the Mediterranean to the North. Recent analyses of the chemical composition of blue glass beads from well-dated Danish Bronze Age burials have revealed evidence for the opening of long distance exchange routes around 1400 BC between Egypt, Mesopotamia and South Scandinavia. When including comparative material from glass workshops in Egypt and finds of glass from Mesopotamia, it becomes clear that glass from those distant lands reached Scandinavia. The routes of exchange can be traced through Europe based on finds of amber from the North and glass from the South.

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