Tsunami risk perception in Central and Southern Italy, 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Cugliari ◽  
Massimo Crescimbene ◽  
Andrea Cerase ◽  
Alessandro Amato ◽  
Loredana Cerbara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Scientific Data ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Tyrrhenian Sea ◽  
Central Mediterranean ◽  
Tsunami Risk ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

<p>The tsunami risk perception survey is promoted by the Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, operating within the Italian System for Tsunami Alert (SiAM) with the Civil Protection Department and ISPRA, and acting as Tsunami Service Provider in the NEAMTWS.</p><p>Conducting studies on tsunami risk perception is important in order to obtain data on population’s knowledge and awareness, and understanding people’s perception of tsunami risk. These data are going to be added to those from two previous surveys on tsunami risk perception being issued in 2018 and 2020, to integrate the available knowledge on these issues and will provide publics, experts and policy makers with relevant tools to <strong>implement risk mitigation policies</strong>. </p><p>The third phase of the survey was completed in January 2021, administering a <strong>total of 4,207 questionnaires</strong> to the population living on the coastal areas of <em>Sicily, Campania, Latium and Sardinia</em>, <strong>in addition to the 1,635 interviewees</strong> considered in previous surveys.</p><p>The survey used a semi-structured questionnaire consisting of 27 items, with closed alternative questions, and four sets of Likert scale questions. The questionnaire was optimized for <em>CATI</em> administration, taking into account the need for conciseness and comprehensibility of the questions.</p><p>All the studied regions are located in the central Mediterranean basin (including central and southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Sardinian Sea, Sicily Channel), some of which are characterized by <strong>high tsunami hazard</strong>, and in some cases they have been affected by recorded tsunamis in a close or distant past. Some regions are located in areas where potential seismic tsunami sources are present, others surround waters where active volcanoes exist, both on islands (such as <em>Stromboli</em>, Vulcano) and below the sea (<em>Marsili, Palinuro</em>). </p><p>In addition, the four studied regions have a <strong>high risk exposure</strong> due to the <strong>high density of population living on</strong>, or visiting the coastal areas for tourism. In the areas where the questionnaire was administered, five highly populated regional capitals are located, including <em>Palermo, Messina, Naples, Rome and Cagliari</em>, together with other important towns (such as <em>Catania, Siracusa, Trapani, Salerno, Olbia</em> etc.). Moreover, the coastal shores involved in the survey, live of a <strong>significant tourist affluence</strong> in the summer period (and not only), with many tourist facilities and large hotels located along the coasts.</p><p>The survey's main aim is to analyze the perception of tsunami risk by the coastal population and to correlate levels of tsunami risk perception with scientific data from <em>probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment</em> (PTHA) for the considered coastal area. We will present some preliminary results of this last survey, with a comparison with the previous analyses on other regions in southern Italy.</p>

Tsunami risk perception in southern Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Massimo Crescimbene ◽  
Andrea Cerase ◽  
Alessandro Amato ◽  
Loredana Cerbara ◽  
Lorenzo Cugliari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Physical Phenomenon ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Scientific Data ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Unexpected Result ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Tsunami Risk

<p>We present the results of an ongoing research for assessing tsunami risk perception in southern Italy. The study is motivated by the need of addressing a sound communication strategy for tsunami risk reduction, related to the activities of the Tsunami Alert Centre (CAT) of INGV, operating within the framework of the Italian civil protection system. The area of the second step of this study includes five regions of Italy (Basilicata, Calabria, Molise, Puglia, Sicily), facing on Adriatic, Ionian and Tyrrhenian seas, located in one of the most hazardous areas of the Mediterranean. In all the area the memory of relevant tsunamis is loose, since the last destructive event dates back to 1908 (due to the Messina-Reggio Calabria M~7 earthquake). The main goal of this study is to verify how people’s perception of tsunami risk compares with the hazard assessed by scientific data, and which are the main factors controlling people’s knowledge and awareness. We analysed a sample of more than 1,600 interviewees representing about 4 million people living in the coastal municipalities of the five considered regions. Results show that risk perception appears to be generally low, with significant differences among different areas, likely due to the the time elapsed since the last events. </p><p>The survey results for the first two investigated regions (Calabria and Puglia, see Cerase et al., NHESS, 2019) showed that people’s perception and understanding of tsunamis are affected by media accounts of the mega-tsunamis of Sumatra 2004 and Japan 2011. At the same time, the risk posed by small tsunamis is basically underrated or neglected, posing some critical questions for risk mitigation strategies, particularly in touristic areas. Furthermore, the survey’s results show that for lay people the word ‘tsunami’ has a different meaning with respect to the Italian traditional word ‘maremoto’, implying that the same physical phenomenon would be understood in two different ways by younger, educated people and elders with low education level. In addition, people have high expectations from authorities, CPAs, research institutions about warnings. Moreover, living in different coastal areas appears to have a significant influence on the way tsunami hazard is perceived: Interviewees of Tyrrhenian Calabria are more likely to associate tsunami risk to volcanoes with respect to those living in the Ionian coastal areas, coherently with the presence of Aeolian volcanic islands and feared submarine volcanoes in the Tyrrhenian. A somehow unexpected result is that TV emerges as the most relevant source of knowledge for 90% of the sample. Some categories declared to prefer getting early warnings through broadcast media and sirens rather than receiving by SMS or apps, suggesting the need for redundancy and modulation of EW messages. We will present an update of the survey which is presently ongoing, related to the five regions. These results could help in addressing risk communication and mitigation policies.</p>

scholarly journals Tsunami risk perception in Southern Italy: first evidence from a sample survey

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Cerase ◽  
Massimo Crescimbene ◽  
Federica La Longa ◽  
Alessandro Amato
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Sample Survey ◽  
Civil Protection ◽  
North East ◽  
Tsunami Risk ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Way

Abstract. According to a deep-rooted conviction, the occurrence of a tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea would be very rare. However, in addition to the catastrophic event of Messina and Reggio Calabria (1908) and the saved danger for the tsunami occurred on Cycladic sea in 1956, 44 events are reported in the Mediterranean Sea between 1951 and 2003, and other smaller tsunamis occurred off Morocco, Aegean and Ionian seashores between 2017 and 2018. Such events, that are just a little part of the over 200 historically events reported for the Mediterranean (Maramai, Brizuela & Graziani, 2014) should remind geoscientists, civil protection officers, media and citizens that 1) tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean is not negligible, and 2) tsunamis come in all shapes and colours, and even a small event can result in serious damages and loss of lives and properties. Recently, a project funded by the European Commission (TSUMAPS-NEAM, Basili et al., 2018) has estimated the tsunami hazard due to seismic sources in the NEAM region (one of the four ICG coordinated by the UNESCO IOC) finding that a significant hazard is present in most coasts of the area, particularly in those of Greece and Italy. In such a scenario, where low probability and high uncertainty match with poor knowledge and familiarity with tsunami hazard, risk mitigation strategies and risk communicators should avoid undue assumptions about public’s supposed attitudes and preparedness, as these may results in serious consequences for the exposed population, geoscientists, and civil protection officers. Hence, scientists must carefully shape their messages and rely on well-researched principled practices rather than on good intuitions (Bostrom, & Löfstedt, 2003). For these reasons, the Centro Allerta Tsunami of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (hereinafter CAT-INGV) promoted a survey to investigate tsunami’s risk perception in two pilot regions of Southern Italy, Calabria and Apulia, providing a stratified sample of 1021 interviewees representing about 3.2mln people living in 183 coastal municipalities of two regions subjected (along with Sicily) to relatively high probability to be hit by a tsunami. Results show that people’s perception and understanding of tsunami are affected by media accounts of large tsunamis of 2004 (Sumatra) and 2011 (Tohoku, North East Japan): television emerged as the most relevant source of knowledge for almost 90 % of the sample, and the influence of media also results in the way tsunami risk is characterized. Risk perception appears to be low: for almost half of the sample the occurrence of a tsunami in the Mediterranean sea is considered quite unlikely. Furthermore, the survey’s results show that the word tsunami occupies a different semantic space with respect to the Italian traditional headword maremoto, with differences among sample strata. In other words, the same physical phenomenon would be understood in two different ways by younger, educated people and elders with low education level. Also belonging to different coastal areas appears to have a significant influence on the way tsunami hazard is conceived, having a stronger effect on risk characterization, for instance the interviewees of Tyrrhenian Calabria are more likely to associate tsunami risk to volcanoes with respect to other considered coastlines. The results of this study provide a relevant account of the issues at a stake, also entailing important implication both for risk communication and mitigation policies.

scholarly journals Tsunami risk perception in southern Italy: first evidence from a sample survey

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 2887-2904 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Cerase ◽  
Massimo Crescimbene ◽  
Federica La Longa ◽  
Alessandro Amato
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Sample Survey ◽  
Computer Assisted ◽  
People’S Perception ◽  
Tsunami Risk ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Way

Abstract. The Italian Tsunami Alert Centre of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (Centro di Allerta Tsunami, hereinafter CAT-INGV) supported a computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) survey to investigate tsunami risk perception in two pilot regions of southern Italy. The survey was carried out on a stratified sample of 1021 interviewees representing about 3.2 million people living in 183 coastal municipalities of the two regions, namely Calabria and Apulia. The main goal of this research is to verify whether and how people's perception of tsunami hazard compares to the results of (PTHA) – probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (TSUMAPS-NEAM project; Basili et al., 2018). As shown by the results of this project, both investigated regions are characterised by high tsunami hazard. Nonetheless, the long return time of such events could lead people to consider the occurrence of a tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea to be very unlikely. The survey results reveal that people's risk perception is low: for almost half of the whole sample the occurrence of a tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea is considered quite unlikely, with a clear difference between Apulia and Calabria. In the latter region the risk perception is much higher than in the former, probably due to the shorter time elapsed since the last event. Also, belonging to different coastal areas1 appears to have a significant influence on the way tsunami hazard is conceived, having a stronger effect on risk characterisation: the interviewees of Tyrrhenian Calabria are indeed more likely to associate tsunami risk with volcanoes than the Ionian citizens. This is coherent considering the presence of active volcanoes and related tsunami precedents in the Tyrrhenian. Television emerged as the most relevant source of knowledge for almost 90 % of the sample, and the influence of media also results in the way tsunami risk is characterised. In particular, the survey showed that people's perception and understanding of tsunamis are affected by media accounts of large events, such as the 2004 Sumatra and the 2011 Japan tsunamis. At the same time, it is evident that the risk posed by smaller events is underrated. Furthermore, the survey's results show that the word “tsunami” occupies a different semantic space in comparison to the Italian traditional headword maremoto, with differences among sample strata. In other words, the same physical phenomenon would be understood in two different ways by younger, educated people and elders with a low education level. The results of this study, although limited to two regions, provide a first assessment of tsunami risk perception in Italy, also entailing important consequences for both risk communication practice and mitigation policies.

scholarly journals A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3105-3122 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Horspool ◽  
I. Pranantyo ◽  
J. Griffin ◽  
H. Latief ◽  
D. H. Natawidjaja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Indian Ocean Tsunami ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Sunda Arc ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Abstract. Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500–2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1–10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1–1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Tsunami risk perception along the Tyrrhenian coasts of Southern Italy: the case of Marsili volcano

2019 ◽  
Vol 97 (1) ◽  
pp. 437-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gravina Teresita ◽  
Mari Nicola ◽  
Farina Luca ◽  
Calabria Pierfrancesco
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Tsunami Risk

scholarly journals PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT (PTHA) AND PTHA-BASED TSUNAMI SCENARIO AT A PACIFIC COAST OF TOHOKU

2018 ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Naoto Kihara ◽  
Hideki Kaida ◽  
Tatsuto Kimura ◽  
Naoki Fujii ◽  
Keiichi Iizuka
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Pacific Coast ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tsunami Scenarios ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Tree Approach

When planning tsunami disaster mitigation and designing important infrastructure from the viewpoint of tsunami resistance in coastal areas, the scale and frequency of tsunamis that will arrive at coastal areas in future are important information. On the other hand, there are large uncertainties in predicting future tsunamis, and thus it is difficult to predict a future tsunami correctly. The technology of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) has been proposed to evaluate the relationship between the height and frequency of tsunamis that will arrive at coastal areas in future. To consider the uncertainties of the prediction in the PTHA, the logic-tree approach is often adopted. In this approach, both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties are considered systematically. The epistemic uncertainties are caused by lack of knowledge and the aleatory uncertainties are variabilities due to natural randomness. In the logic-tree approach, the epistemic uncertainties are expressed by tree branches and the aleatory uncertainties are expressed by the probabilistic density functions of predicted tsunami heights. By carrying out PTHA, we can obtain a hazard curve, which expresses the relationship between the tsunami height and annual frequency of exceedance. Recently, methodologies by which PTHA-based-tsunami-scenarios are determined have been proposed. By using tsunami scenarios, detailed inundation processes and patterns can be evaluated. In this study, we apply the technologies of PTHA to the pacific coast of Tohoku, Japan. Then, we determine PTHA-based tsunami scenarios, that overflow a seawall constructed at the target coast and can be used for the evaluation of inundation processes.

scholarly journals An updated checklist of chondrichthyans of Calabria (Central Mediterranean, southern Italy), with emphasis on rare species

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRANCESCO L. LEONETTI ◽  
GIANNI GIGLIO ◽  
AGOSTINO LEONE ◽  
FABRIZIO COPPOLA ◽  
CHIARA ROMANO ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Italy ◽  
New Records ◽  
First Record ◽  
Tyrrhenian Sea ◽  
Ionian Sea ◽  
Central Mediterranean ◽  
Critically Endangered Species ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
Cetorhinus Maximus

In this contribution the checklist of chondrichthyans of Calabria (Central Mediterranean, southern Italy) is reported. Data presented is derived from twenty years of opportunistic and active surveys from 2000 to 2020. A total of 55 species of chondrichthyans is present in Calabrian seas: 33 sharks, 20 rays, and 2 chimaeras. These species represent approximately 62% of the total reported for the Mediterranean. Approximately 71% of Calabrian species have been reported in the Tyrrhenian Sea, 49% in the Ionian Sea, and 33% in the Strait of Messina. According to IUCN criteria, new records of Endangered and Critically Endangered species (i.e., Carcahrodon carcharias [Linnaeus, 1758], Lamna nasus [Bonnaterre, 1788], Cetorhinus maximus [Gunnerus, 1765], Mobula mobular [Bonnaterre, 1788], Sphyrna zygaena [Linnaeus, 1758]) are reported, together with the first record of Raya brachyura Lafont, 1873 for the Ionian coasts and probably third confirmed record of the rare chimaera Hydrolagus mirabilis (Collett, 1904) for the Mediterranean.

scholarly journals AN APPROACH FOR PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND APPLICATION TO SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF CHINA

2020 ◽  
pp. 4
Author(s):  
Xiaoxuan Zhang ◽  
Guangsheng Zhao ◽  
Xiaojing Niu
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Seismic Parameters ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Manila Trench ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Seismic tsunami poses risks to many coast areas. Strong earthquakes in the area of Manila Trench may produce large-scale seismic tsunamis in South China Sea. This study aims to conduct PTHA (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment) for the southern coastal areas of China. Several methods have already been developed to carry out PTHA, e.g. Geist & Parsons, (2006). However, there are multiple seismic parameters that affect the scale of seismic tsunamis, and those parameters are with strong uncertainties. For accurately assessing the tsunami hazard, a large number of scenarios are inevitably required to do the probabilistic statistical analysis. Therefore, existing methods do make some limits on seismic parameters to ensure the efficiency. In order to balance the accuracy and feasibility in PTHA, this study proposes a new approach.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/DllGeiaJBmo

scholarly journals Flood Risk Evaluation in Ungauged Coastal Areas: The Case Study of Ippocampo (Southern Italy)

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ciro Apollonio ◽  
Maria Francesca Bruno ◽  
Gabriele Iemmolo ◽  
Matteo Gianluca Molfetta ◽  
Roberta Pellicani
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Flooding Events

The growing concentration of population and the related increase in human activities in coastal areas require numerical simulations to analyze the effects of flooding events that might occur in susceptible coastal areas in order to determine effective coastal management practices and safety measures to safeguard the inhabited coastal areas. The reliability of the analysis is dependent on the correct evaluation of key inputs such as return period of flooding events, vulnerability of exposed assets, and other risk factors (e.g., spatial distribution of elements at risk, their economic value, etc.). This paper defines a methodology to assess the effects of flooding events associated with basin run-off and storm surge in coastal areas. The assessment aims at quantifying in economic terms (e.g., loss of assets) the risk of coastal areas subject to flooding events. The methodology proposed in this paper was implemented to determine the areas subject to inundation on a coastal area in Southern Italy prone to hydrogeological instability and coastal inundation. A two-dimensional hydraulic model was adopted to simulate storm surges generated by severe sea storms coupled with intense rainfalls in order to determine the areas subject to inundation in the low-land area along the Adriatic coast object of this study. In conclusion, the economic risk corresponding to four different flooding scenarios was assessed by correlating the exceedance probability of each flooding scenario with the potential economic losses that might be realized in the inundated areas. The results of the assessment can inform decision-makers responsible for the deployment of risk mitigation measures.

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