scholarly journals Ensemble reconstruction of spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events in France since 1871

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 2923-2951 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurie Caillouet ◽  
Jean-Philippe Vidal ◽  
Eric Sauquet ◽  
Alexandre Devers ◽  
Benjamin Graff
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Reference Network ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Historical Events ◽  
Variable Threshold ◽  
Matching Procedure ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Temporal Events ◽  
Rich Countries

Abstract. The length of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years even in data-rich countries like France. It therefore offers too small a sample of extreme low-flow events to properly explore the long-term evolution of their characteristics and associated impacts. To overcome this limit, this work first presents a daily 140-year ensemble reconstructed streamflow dataset for a reference network of near-natural catchments in France. This dataset, called SCOPE Hydro (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended Hydrological dataset), is based on (1) a probabilistic precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, called SCOPE Climate, and (2) continuous hydrological modelling using SCOPE Climate as forcings over the whole period. This work then introduces tools for defining spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events. Extreme low-flow events are first locally defined through the sequent peak algorithm using a novel combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. A dedicated spatial matching procedure is then established to identify spatio-temporal events across France. This procedure is furthermore adapted to the SCOPE Hydro 25-member ensemble to characterize in a probabilistic way unrecorded historical events at the national scale. Extreme low-flow events are described and compared in a spatially and temporally homogeneous way over 140 years on a large set of catchments. Results highlight well-known recent events like 1976 or 1989–1990, but also older and relatively forgotten ones like the 1878 and 1893 events. These results contribute to improving our knowledge of historical events and provide a selection of benchmark events for climate change adaptation purposes. Moreover, this study allows for further detailed analyses of the effect of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on low-flow hydrology at the scale of France.

scholarly journals Ensemble reconstruction of spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events in France since 1871

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurie Caillouet ◽  
Jean-Philippe Vidal ◽  
Eric Sauquet ◽  
Alexandre Devers ◽  
Benjamin Graff
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Reference Network ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Historical Events ◽  
Variable Threshold ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Temporal Events ◽  
Rich Countries

Abstract. The historical depth of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years even in data-rich countries like France. It therefore offers too small a sample of extreme low-flow events to properly explore the long-term evolution of their characteristics and associated impacts. In order to overcome this limit, this work first presents a daily 140-year ensemble reconstructed streamflow dataset for a reference network of near-natural catchments in France. This dataset, called SCOPE Hydro (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended Hydrological dataset), is based on (1) a probabilistic precipitation, temperature and reference evapotranspiration downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, called SCOPE Climate, and (2) a continuous hydrological modelling using SCOPE Climate as forcings over the whole period. This work then introduces tools for defining spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events. Extreme low-flow events are first locally defined through the Sequent Peak Algorithm using a novel combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. A dedicated spatial matching procedure is then set up to identify spatio-temporal events across France. This procedure is furthermore adapted to the SCOPE Hydro 25-member ensemble in order to characterize in a probabilistic way unrecorded historical events at the national scale. For the first time, extreme low-flow events are described and compared in a spatially and temporally homogeneous way over 140 years on a large set of catchments. Initial results bring forward well-known recent events like 1976 or 1989–1990, but also older and relatively forgotten ones like the 1878 and 1893 events. These results contribute to improve our knowledge on historical events and provide a selection of benchmark events for climate change adaptation purposes. This study moreover allows for further detailed analyses of the effect of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on low-flow hydrology at the scale of France.

Influence of climate change on low flow conditions. Case study: Laborec River, eastern Slovakia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Kubiak-Wójcicka ◽  
Martina Zeleňáková ◽  
Peter Blištan ◽  
Dorota Simonová ◽  
Agnieszka Pilarska
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Flow Conditions

scholarly journals Water Temperature and Hydrological Modelling in the Context of Environmental Flows and Future Climate Change: Case Study of the Wilmot River (Canada)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2101
Author(s):  
Christian Charron ◽  
André St-Hilaire ◽  
Taha B.M.J. Ouarda ◽  
Michael R. van den Heuvel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Environmental Flows ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Abstraction ◽  
Surface Water Flow ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Simulation of surface water flow and temperature under a non-stationary, anthropogenically impacted climate is critical for water resource decision makers, especially in the context of environmental flow determination. Two climate change scenarios were employed to predict streamflow and temperature: RCP 8.5, the most pessimistic with regards to climate change, and RCP 4.5, a more optimistic scenario where greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2040. Two periods, 2018–2050 and 2051–2100, were also evaluated. In Canada, a number of modelling studies have shown that many regions will likely be faced with higher winter flow and lower summer flows. The CEQUEAU hydrological and water temperature model was calibrated and validated for the Wilmot River, Canada, using historic data for flow and temperature. Total annual precipitation in the region was found to remain stable under RCP 4.5 and increase over time under RCP 8.5. Median stream flow was expected to increase over present levels in the low flow months of August and September. However, increased climate variability led to higher numbers of periodic extreme low flow events and little change to the frequency of extreme high flow events. The effective increase in water temperature was four-fold greater in winter with an approximate mean difference of 4 °C, while the change was only 1 °C in summer. Overall implications for native coldwater fishes and water abstraction are not severe, except for the potential for more variability, and hence periodic extreme low flow/high temperature events.

Kalmag: a high spatio temporal model of the Geomagnetic field

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Baerenzung ◽  
Matthias Holschneider
Keyword(s):  
Geomagnetic Field ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Dynamical Evolution ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Large Set ◽  
The Core ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Marine Vessels

<p>We present a new high resolution model of the Geomagnetic field spanning the last 121 years. The model derives from a large set of data taken by low orbiting satellites, ground based observatories, marine vessels, airplane and during land surveys. It is obtained by combining a Kalman filter to a smoothing algorithm. Seven different magnetic sources are taken into account. Three of them are of internal origin. These are the core, the lithospheric  and the induced / residual ionospheric fields. The other four sources are of external origin. They are composed by a close, a remote and a fluctuating magnetospheric fields as well as a source associated with field aligned currents. The dynamical evolution of each source is prescribed by an auto regressive process of either first or second order, except for the lithospheric field which is assumed to be static. The parameters of the processes were estimated through a machine learning algorithm with a sample of data taken by the low orbiting satellites of the CHAMP and Swarm missions. In this presentation we will mostly focus on the rapid variations of the core field, and the small scale lithospheric field.  We will also discuss the nature of model uncertainties and the limitiations they imply.</p>

Optimized planning and operation of interconnected multi-purpose reservoir systems using integrated modeling for climate change adaptation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Nistahl ◽  
Tim Müller ◽  
Gerhard Riedel ◽  
Hannes Müller-Thomy ◽  
Günter Meon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Performance Criteria ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Operation Model

<p>Climate change impact studies performed for Northern Germany indicate a growing demand for water storage capacity to account for flood protection, low flow augmentation, drinking and agricultural water supply. At the same time, larger storage volumes for hydropower plants can be used to cope with the demands of changing energy supply from fossil to renewable energies. To tackle these challenges for the next decades, a novel reservoir system planning instrument is developed, which consists of combined numerical models and evaluation components. It allows to model simultaneously the current interconnected infrastructure of reservoirs as well as additional planning variants (structural and operational) as preparation for climate change. This planning instrument consists of a hydrological model and a detailed reservoir operation model.</p><p>As hydrological model, the conceptual, semi-distributed version of PANTA RHEI is applied.  Bias-corrected regional climate models (based on the RCP 8.5 scenario) are used as meteorological input. The hydrological model is coupled with a detailed reservoir operation model that replicates the complex rules of various interconnected reservoirs based on an hourly time step including pumped storage plants, which may have a subsurface reservoir as a lower basin. Downstream of the reservoirs, the hydrological model is used for routing the reservoir outflows and simulating natural side inflows. In areas of particular interest for flood protection, the hydrological routing is substituted with 2D hydraulic models to calculate the flood risk in terms of expected annual flood damage based on resulting inundation areas.</p><p>For the performance analysis, the simulation runs for all integrated modeling variants are evaluated for a reference period (1971-2000) and for future periods (2041-2070). Performance criteria involve flood protection, drinking water supply, low flow augmentation and energy production. These performance criteria will be used as stake holder information as well as a base for further optimization and ranking of the planning variants.</p><p>The combination of the hydrological model and the reservoir operation model shows a good performance of the existing complex hydraulic infrastructure using observed meteorological forcing as input. The usage of regional climate models as input shows a wide dispersion of several performance criteria, confirming the expected need for an innovative optimization scheme and the communication of the underlying uncertainties.</p>

scholarly journals Downscaling future precipitation extremes to urban hydrology scales using a spatio-temporal Neyman–Scott weather generator

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 1387-1403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup ◽  
Ole Bøssing Christensen ◽  
Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen ◽  
Peter Steen Mikkelsen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Spatial Extent ◽  
Urban Hydrology ◽  
Precipitation Time Series ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract. Spatio-temporal precipitation is modelled for urban application at 1 h temporal resolution on a 2 km grid using a spatio-temporal Neyman–Scott rectangular pulses weather generator (WG). Precipitation time series used as input to the WG are obtained from a network of 60 tipping-bucket rain gauges irregularly placed in a 40 km  ×  60 km model domain. The WG simulates precipitation time series that are comparable to the observations with respect to extreme precipitation statistics. The WG is used for downscaling climate change signals from regional climate models (RCMs) with spatial resolutions of 25 and 8 km, respectively. Six different RCM simulation pairs are used to perturb the WG with climate change signals resulting in six very different perturbation schemes. All perturbed WGs result in more extreme precipitation at the sub-daily to multi-daily level and these extremes exhibit a much more realistic spatial pattern than what is observed in RCM precipitation output. The WG seems to correlate increased extreme intensities with an increased spatial extent of the extremes meaning that the climate-change-perturbed extremes have a larger spatial extent than those of the present climate. Overall, the WG produces robust results and is seen as a reliable procedure for downscaling RCM precipitation output for use in urban hydrology.

scholarly journals Historical greenhouse gas concentrations

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malte Meinshausen ◽  
Elisabeth Vogel ◽  
Alexander Nauels ◽  
Katja Lorbacher ◽  
Nicolai Meinshausen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Sulfur Hexafluoride ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Surface Mixing ◽  
Cooling Effects

Abstract. Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are at unprecedented, record-high levels compared to pre-industrial reconstructions over the last 800,000 years. Those elevated greenhouse gas concentrations warm the planet and together with net cooling effects by aerosols, they are the reason of observed climate change over the past 150 years. An accurate representation of those concentrations is hence important to understand and model recent and future climate change. So far, community efforts to create composite datasets with seasonal and latitudinal information have focused on marine boundary layer conditions and recent trends since 1980s. Here, we provide consolidated data sets of historical atmospheric (volume) mixing ratios of 43 greenhouse gases specifically for the purpose of climate model runs. The presented datasets are based on AGAGE and NOAA networks and a large set of literature studies. In contrast to previous intercomparisons, the new datasets are latitudinally resolved, and include seasonality over the period between year 0 to 2014. We assimilate data for CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), 5 chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), 3 hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), 16 hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), 3 halons, methyl bromide (CH3Br), 3 perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), nitrogen triflouride (NF3) and sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2). We estimate 1850 annual and global mean surface mixing ratios of CO2 at 284.3 ppmv, CH4 at 808.2 ppbv and N2O at 273.0 ppbv and quantify the seasonal and hemispheric gradients of surface mixing ratios. Compared to earlier intercomparisons, the stronger implied radiative forcing in the northern hemisphere winter (due to the latitudinal gradient and seasonality) may help to improve the skill of climate models to reproduce past climate and thereby reduce uncertainty in future projections.

scholarly journals Abrupt Climate Chang: Time Is Tight

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 127
Author(s):  
Jan-Erik Lane
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Third World ◽  
Climate Change Policy ◽  
The Third ◽  
Change Policy ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Global Coordination ◽  
The Third World ◽  
Rich Countries

The new theme of abrupt climate change (“Hawking tipping point”) must be taken up by global coordination – the UNFCCC, IPCC and the G20. The only policy response is to reinforce the COP21 project, and start managing its quick implementation of decarbonisation. A more decisive climate change policy – no coal or charcoal, solar power parks, and possibly carbon capture – may not guarantee the goal of + 2 degrees Celsius, but it may help avoid climate chaos. Only global coordination can break through the resistance of markets in the rich countries and governments in the Third World together with vibrant civil society. The large COP21 Secretariat must become a management agency for rapid decarbonisation with support from other global bodies (WB, IMF) and the G20.

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