scholarly journals Simultaneous state–parameter estimation of rainfall-induced landslide displacement using data assimilation

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (7) ◽  
pp. 1387-1398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Wang ◽  
Guigen Nie ◽  
Shengjun Gao ◽  
Changhu Xue
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
State Parameter ◽  
Joint Estimation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Displacement Estimation ◽  
Landslide Stability ◽  
Landslide Displacement Prediction ◽  
Using Data

Abstract. Landslide displacement prediction has great practical engineering significance to landslide stability evaluation and early warning. The evolution of landslide is a complex dynamic process, and applying a classical prediction method will result in significant error. The data assimilation method offers a new way to merge multisource data with the model. However, data assimilation is still deficient in the ability to meet the demand of dynamic landslide systems. In this paper, simultaneous state and parameter estimation (SSPE) using particle-filter-based data assimilation is applied to predict displacement of the landslide. A landslide SSPE assimilation strategy can make use of time-series displacements and hydrological information for the joint estimation of landslide displacement and model parameters, which can improve the performance considerably. We select Xishan Village, Sichuan Province, China, as the experiment site to test the SSPE assimilation strategy. Based on the comparison of actual monitoring data with prediction values, results strongly suggest the effectiveness and feasibility of the SSPE assimilation strategy in short-term landslide displacement estimation.

scholarly journals Simultaneous state-parameter estimation of rainfall-induced landslide displacement using data assimilation

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Wang ◽  
Guigen Nie ◽  
Shengjun Gao ◽  
Changhu Xue
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
State Parameter ◽  
Joint Estimation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Displacement Estimation ◽  
Landslide Stability ◽  
Landslide Displacement Prediction ◽  
Using Data

Abstract. Landslide displacement prediction has great practical engineering significance to landslide stability evaluation and early warning. The evolution of landslide is a complex dynamic process, applying classical prediction method will result in significant error. Data assimilation method offers a new way to merge multi-source data with the model. However, data assimilation is still deficient in the ability to meet the demand of dynamic landslide system. In this paper, simultaneous state-parameter estimation (SSPE) using particle filter-based data assimilation is applied to predict displacement of the landslide. Landslide SSPE assimilation strategy can make use of time-series displacements and hydrological information for the joint estimation of landslide displacement and model parameters, which can improve the performance considerably. We select Xishan Village, Sichuan province, China as experiment site to test SSPE assimilation strategy. Based on the comparison of actual monitoring data with prediction values, results strongly suggest the effectiveness and feasibility of SSPE assimilation strategy in short-term landslide displacement estimation.

scholarly journals Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 1331-1347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Alfonzo ◽  
Dean S. Oliver
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Seismic Data ◽  
History Matching ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Model Diagnostic ◽  
Diagonal Approximation ◽  
Data Coverage ◽  
Reservoir Simulation Model ◽  
Using Data

Abstract It is common in ensemble-based methods of history matching to evaluate the adequacy of the initial ensemble of models through visual comparison between actual observations and data predictions prior to data assimilation. If the model is appropriate, then the observed data should look plausible when compared to the distribution of realizations of simulated data. The principle of data coverage alone is, however, not an effective method for model criticism, as coverage can often be obtained by increasing the variability in a single model parameter. In this paper, we propose a methodology for determining the suitability of a model before data assimilation, particularly aimed for real cases with large numbers of model parameters, large amounts of data, and correlated observation errors. This model diagnostic is based on an approximation of the Mahalanobis distance between the observations and the ensemble of predictions in high-dimensional spaces. We applied our methodology to two different examples: a Gaussian example which shows that our shrinkage estimate of the covariance matrix is a better discriminator of outliers than the pseudo-inverse and a diagonal approximation of this matrix; and an example using data from the Norne field. In this second test, we used actual production, repeat formation tester, and inverted seismic data to evaluate the suitability of the initial reservoir simulation model and seismic model. Despite the good data coverage, our model diagnostic suggested that model improvement was necessary. After modifying the model, it was validated against the observations and is now ready for history matching to production and seismic data. This shows that the proposed methodology for the evaluation of the adequacy of the model is suitable for large realistic problems.

scholarly journals Application of ensemble transform data assimilation methods for parameter estimation in reservoir modeling

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 731-746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangeetika Ruchi ◽  
Svetlana Dubinkina
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Particle Filter ◽  
Reservoir Modeling ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Uncertain Parameters ◽  
Initial Ensemble ◽  
Leading Mode ◽  
Ensemble Transform

Abstract. Over the years data assimilation methods have been developed to obtain estimations of uncertain model parameters by taking into account a few observations of a model state. The most reliable Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are computationally expensive. Sequential ensemble methods such as ensemble Kalman filters and particle filters provide a favorable alternative. However, ensemble Kalman filter has an assumption of Gaussianity. Ensemble transform particle filter does not have this assumption and has proven to be highly beneficial for an initial condition estimation and a small number of parameter estimations in chaotic dynamical systems with non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper we employ ensemble transform particle filter (ETPF) and ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) for parameter estimation in nonlinear problems with 1, 5, and 2500 uncertain parameters and compare them to importance sampling (IS). The large number of uncertain parameters is of particular interest for subsurface reservoir modeling as it allows us to parameterize permeability on the grid. We prove that the updated parameters obtained by ETPF lie within the range of an initial ensemble, which is not the case for ETKF. We examine the performance of ETPF and ETKF in a twin experiment setup, where observations of pressure are synthetically created based on the known values of parameters. For a small number of uncertain parameters (one and five) ETPF performs comparably to ETKF in terms of the mean estimation. For a large number of uncertain parameters (2500) ETKF is robust with respect to the initial ensemble, while ETPF is sensitive due to sampling error. Moreover, for the high-dimensional test problem ETPF gives an increase in the root mean square error after data assimilation is performed. This is resolved by applying distance-based localization, which however deteriorates a posterior estimation of the leading mode by largely increasing the variance due to a combination of less varying localized weights, not keeping the imposed bounds on the modes via the Karhunen–Loeve expansion, and the main variability explained by the leading mode. A possible remedy is instead of applying localization to use only leading modes that are well estimated by ETPF, which demands knowledge of which mode to truncate.

Estimation of FEM Model Parameters Using Data Assimilation and Its Application to an Electrical Machine

2016 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-4 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bacchus ◽  
A. Tounzi ◽  
J.-P. Argaud ◽  
B. Bouriquet ◽  
M. Biet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Electrical Machine ◽  
Fem Model ◽  
Using Data

scholarly journals Real-Time Data Assimilation for Operational Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 548-565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasper A. Vrugt ◽  
Hoshin V. Gupta ◽  
BreanndánÓ Nualláin ◽  
Willem Bouten
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Simultaneous Optimization ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Performance Improvements ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Operational flood forecasting requires that accurate estimates of the uncertainty associated with model-generated streamflow forecasts be provided along with the probable flow levels. This paper demonstrates a stochastic ensemble implementation of the Sacramento model used routinely by the National Weather Service for deterministic streamflow forecasting. The approach, the simultaneous optimization and data assimilation method (SODA), uses an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for recursive state estimation allowing for treatment of streamflow data error, model structural error, and parameter uncertainty, while enabling implementation of the Sacramento model without major modification to its current structural form. Model parameters are estimated in batch using the shuffled complex evolution metropolis stochastic-ensemble optimization approach (SCEM-UA). The SODA approach was implemented using parallel computing to handle the increased computational requirements. Studies using data from the Leaf River, Mississippi, indicate that forecast performance improvements on the order of 30% to 50% can be realized even with a suboptimal implementation of the filter. Further, the SODA parameter estimates appear to be less biased, which may increase the prospects for finding useful regionalization relationships.

Development of a Practical River Water Level Prediction Method Using Data Assimilation Technique

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 260-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuichi Tsuchiya ◽  
◽  
Masaki Kawasaki
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Water Level ◽  
River Water ◽  
Channel Model ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Data Assimilation Technique ◽  
Water Level Prediction

With the aim of accurately predicting river water levels a few hours ahead in the event of a flood, we created a river water level prediction model consisting of a runoff model, a channel model, and data assimilation technique. We also developed a cascade assimilation method that allows us to calculate assimilations of water levels observed at multiple points using particle filters in real-time. As a result of applying the river water level prediction model to Arakawa Basin using the assimilation technique, it was confirmed that reproductive simulations that produce results very similar to the observed results could be achieved, and that we would be able to predict river water levels less affected by the predicted amount of rainfall.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document