scholarly journals A preliminary study on the comprehensive threshold for debris-flow early warning

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoqiang Xue ◽  
Jian Huang
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Pore Pressure ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Pore Water Pressure ◽  
Water Pressure ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Great Loss ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Preliminary Study

Abstract. Debris-flows not only cause a great loss of property, but also kill and injure people every rainy season in the mountainous regions of China. In order to reduce hazard and risk, several methods of assessing rainfall thresholds have been provided at present, based on statistical models. However, the limited rainfall data with debris-flow occurrence or non-occurrence makes threshold analyses very difficult. This paper, therefore, presented a kind of comprehensive threshold consisting of pore-water pressure from Terzaghi theory, and rainfall factors from frequent usage for predicting debris-flow occurrence. Rainfall and pore pressure data has been collected in a number of locations in Wenjiagou gully to assess critical rainfall and pore pressure values for debris flow initiation. The three-level early warning criteria (Zero, Attention, and Warning) has been adopted and the corresponding judgement conditions has been defined based on monitoring data in a real-time way. Finally, it is suggested that the combination of these two critical values might be a useful approach in a warning system for safeguarding of population in debris-flow prone areas.

scholarly journals Study on the combined threshold for gully-type debris flow early warning

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Huang ◽  
Theodoor Wouterus Johannes van Asch ◽  
Changming Wang ◽  
Qiao Li
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Pore Pressure ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Great Loss ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Pressure Threshold

Abstract. Gully-type debris flow induced by high-intensity and short-duration rainfall frequently causes great loss of properties and causalities in mountainous regions of southwest China. In order to reduce the risk by geohazards, early warning systems have been provided. A triggering index can be detected in an early stage by the monitoring of rainfall and the changes in physical properties of the deposited materials along debris flow channels. Based on the method of critical pore pressure for slope stability analysis, this study presents critical pore pressure threshold in combination with rainfall factors for gully-type debris flow early warning. The Wenjia gully, which contains an enormous amount of loose material, was selected as a case study to reveal the relationship between the rainfall and pore pressure by field monitoring data. A three-level early warning system (zero, attention, and warning) is adopted and the corresponding judgement conditions are defined in real time. Based on this threshold, there are several rainfall events in recent years have been validated in Wenjia gully, which prove that such a combined threshold may be a reliable approach for the early warning of gully-type debris flow to safeguard the population in the mountainous areas.

scholarly journals Study on the combined threshold for gully-type debris flow early warning

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Huang ◽  
Theodoor Wouterus Johannes van Asch ◽  
Changming Wang ◽  
Qiao Li
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Pore Pressure ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Great Loss ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. Gully-type debris flow induced by high-intensity and short-duration rainfall, frequently cause a great loss of properties and causalities in mountainous regions of Southwest China. In order to reduce the risk by geohazards, early warning systems have been provided. A triggering index can be detected in an early stage by the monitoring of rainfall and the changes in physical properties of the deposited materials along debris flow channel. Based on the method of critical pore pressure for slope stability analysis, this study presents critical pore pressure thresholds in combination with rainfall factors for gully-type debris flow early warning. The Wenjia gully, which contains an enormous amount of loose materials, was selected as a case study to reveal the relationship between the rainfalls and pore pressure, which can be used as a combined warning threshold. A three-level early warning system (Zero, Attention, and Warning) is adopted and the corresponding judgement conditions are defined in real-time. Based on this threshold, several rainfall events in recent years have been validated to prove that such a comprehensive threshold may be a reliable approach for the early warning of debris flows to safeguard the population in the mountainous areas.

scholarly journals Learning Case Study of a Shallow-Water Model to Assess an Early-Warning System for Fast Alpine Muddy-Debris-Flow

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 750
Author(s):  
Antonio Pasculli ◽  
Jacopo Cinosi ◽  
Laura Turconi ◽  
Nicola Sciarra
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Shallow Water ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Water Model ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Processing Unit

The current climate change could lead to an intensification of extreme weather events, such as sudden floods and fast flowing debris flows. Accordingly, the availability of an early-warning device system, based on hydrological data and on both accurate and very fast running mathematical-numerical models, would be not only desirable, but also necessary in areas of particular hazard. To this purpose, the 2D Riemann–Godunov shallow-water approach, solved in parallel on a Graphical-Processing-Unit (GPU) (able to drastically reduce calculation time) and implemented with the RiverFlow2D code (version 2017), was selected as a possible tool to be applied within the Alpine contexts. Moreover, it was also necessary to identify a prototype of an actual rainfall monitoring network and an actual debris-flow event, beside the acquisition of an accurate numerical description of the topography. The Marderello’s basin (Alps, Turin, Italy), described by a 5 × 5 m Digital Terrain Model (DTM), equipped with five rain-gauges and one hydrometer and the muddy debris flow event that was monitored on 22 July 2016, were identified as a typical test case, well representative of mountain contexts and the phenomena under study. Several parametric analyses, also including selected infiltration modelling, were carried out in order to individuate the best numerical values fitting the measured data. Different rheological options, such as Coulomb-Turbulent-Yield and others, were tested. Moreover, some useful general suggestions, regarding the improvement of the adopted mathematical modelling, were acquired. The rapidity of the computational time due to the application of the GPU and the comparison between experimental data and numerical results, regarding both the arrival time and the height of the debris wave, clearly show that the selected approaches and methodology can be considered suitable and accurate tools to be included in an early-warning system, based at least on simple acoustic and/or light alarms that can allow rapid evacuation, for fast flowing debris flows.

Type of Slope Failure Identified from Pore Water Pressure and Moisture Content Measurements

2015 ◽  
Vol 744-746 ◽  
pp. 690-694
Author(s):  
Muhammad Rehan Hakro ◽  
Indra Sati Hamonangan Harahap
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Content ◽  
Pore Pressure ◽  
Slope Failure ◽  
Pore Water Pressure ◽  
Water Pressure ◽  
Failure Process ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Content Increase ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Model Slope

Rainfall-induced landslides occur in many parts of the world and causing a lot of the damages. For effective prediction of rainfall-induced landslides the comprehensive understanding of the failure process is necessary. Under different soil and hydrological conditions experiments were conducted to investigate and clarify the mechanism of slope failure. The failure in model slope was induced by sprinkling the rainfall on slope composed of sandy soil in small flume. Series of tests were conducted in small scale flume to better understand the failure process in sandy slopes. The moisture content was measured with advanced Imko TDR (Time Domain Reflectrometry) moisture sensors in addition to measurements of pore pressure with piezometers. The moisture content increase rapidly to reach the maximum possible water content in case of higher intensity of rainfall, and higher intensity of the rainfall causes higher erosion as compared to smaller intensity of the rainfall. The controlling factor for rainfall-induced flowslides was density of the slope, rather than intensity of the rainfall and during the flowslide the sudden increase in pore pressure was observed. Higher pore pressure was observed at the toe of the slope as compared to upper part of the slope.

scholarly journals Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 483-496 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. L. Liu ◽  
S. J. Zhang ◽  
H. J. Yang ◽  
L. Q. Zhao ◽  
Y. H. Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Sichuan Province ◽  
Affected Area ◽  
The Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
New System

Abstract. The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.

scholarly journals Determination of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides by a probabilistic and empirical method

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 3487-3508
Author(s):  
J. Huang ◽  
N. P. Ju ◽  
Y. J. Liao ◽  
D. D. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Rainfall Threshold ◽  
Empirical Method ◽  
Shallow Landslides ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Threshold Values ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Hourly Rainfall

Abstract. Rainfall-induced landslides not only cause property loss, but also kill and injure large numbers of people every year in mountainous areas in China. These losses and casualties may be avoided to some extent with rainfall threshold values used in an early warning system at a regional scale for the occurrence of landslides. However, the limited availability of data always causes difficulties. In this paper we present a method to calculate rainfall threshold values with limited data sets for the two rainfall parameters: maximum hourly rainfall intensity and accumulated precipitation. The method has been applied to the Huangshan region, in Anhui Province, China. Four early warning levels (Zero, Outlook, Attention, and Warning) have been adopted and the corresponding rainfall threshold values have been defined by probability lines. A validation procedure showed that this method can significantly enhance the effectiveness of a warning system, and finally reduce the risk from shallow landslides in mountainous regions.

scholarly journals Mechanical response and pore pressure generation in granular filters subjected to uniaxial cyclic loading

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (12) ◽  
pp. 1756-1768
Author(s):  
Jahanzaib Israr ◽  
Buddhima Indraratna
Keyword(s):  
Cyclic Loading ◽  
Pore Pressure ◽  
Pore Water ◽  
Mechanical Response ◽  
Pore Water Pressure ◽  
Axial Strain ◽  
Water Pressure ◽  
Internal Erosion ◽  
Excess Pore Water Pressure ◽  
Excess Pore

This paper presents results from a series of piping tests carried out on a selected range of granular filters under static and cyclic loading conditions. The mechanical response of filters subjected to cyclic loading could be characterized in three distinct phases; namely, (I) pre-shakedown, (II) post-shakedown, and (III) post-critical (i.e., the occurrence of internal erosion). All the permanent geomechanical changes such, as erosion, permeability variations, and axial strain developments, took place during phases I and III, while the specimen response remained purely elastic during phase II. The post-critical occurrence of erosion incurred significant settlement that may not be tolerable for high-speed railway substructures. The analysis revealed that a cyclic load would induce excess pore-water pressure, which, in corroboration with steady seepage forces and agitation due to dynamic loading, could then cause internal erosion of fines from the specimens. The resulting excess pore pressure is a direct function of the axial strain due to cyclic densification, as well as the loading frequency and reduction in permeability. A model based on strain energy is proposed to quantify the excess pore-water pressure, and subsequently validated using current and existing test results from published studies.

An effective stress model for creep of clay

1995 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 819-834 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed M. Morsy ◽  
D.H. Chan ◽  
N.R. Morgenstern
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Pore Pressure ◽  
Effective Stress ◽  
Pore Water Pressure ◽  
Water Pressure ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Interpolation Technique ◽  
Stress Integration ◽  
Integration Algorithms ◽  
Double Yield

An effective stress constitutive model to study the problem numerically of creep in the field is presented. A double-yield surface model for the stress–strain–time behaviour of wet clay is described. The model adopts the concept of separating the total deformation into immediate and delayed components. The yield surfaces employed are the modified Cam-clay ellipsoid and the Von Mises cylinder inscribed in the ellipsoid. The proposed numerical scheme incorporates the pore pressure based on field observations into a finite element analysis. An interpolation technique is used to determine the pore pressure at every element. A field example is presented to illustrate the interpolation technique procedure. The scheme not only avoids the complexity of making predictions of pore-water pressure, but also allows the analysis to be carried out in terms of effective stresses based on the actual observed pore pressure. Two stress integration algorithms based on the implicit calculation of plastic strain are implemented and tested for the double-yield surface model. A numerical simulation of stress-controlled drained creep tests confirms the numerical procedure. Key words : constitutive equations, creep, finite element, stress integration algorithms, effective stress approach, pore-water pressure.

scholarly journals Smart disaster prediction application using flood risk analytics towards sustainable climate action

2018 ◽  
Vol 189 ◽  
pp. 10006
Author(s):  
Michael M. Orozco ◽  
Jonathan M. Caballero
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
River Water ◽  
Statistical Modeling ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Predictive Analytics ◽  
Water Pressure ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Disaster Prediction

Disaster prediction devices for early warning system are used by many countries for disaster awareness. This study developed smart disaster prediction application using microcontrollers and sensors to analyze the river water level for flood using flood risk analytics. Specifically, it monitors the river water level, water pressure and rain fallusing microcontroller, applying statistical modeling algorithms for river flood prediction, and monitor flood in a web-based system with SMS notification and alarm to the community as an early warning. The researchers used the system development method to measure the prototype feasibility study. The researchers applied the statistical modeling algorithm as the data can be observed from time to time or on a daily basis for the predictive analytics. Based on the 7-days observation result, rainfall resulted in precipitation average of 10.96 mm, water pressure with an average of 40.92 pound per square inch (psi) and water level averaged 138.78 cm. The tropical depression during the 7 days’observation reflected the average data result from the sensors as the target of the study. The result of the prototype device used the City Disaster Risk and Reduction management office (CDRRMO) as history logs for a flood risk and it was proven accurate which makes a good use for disaster prediction.

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