scholarly journals Optimal Control and Cost Effectiveness Analysis of SIRS Malaria Disease Model with Temperature Variability Factor

2021 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 134-163
Author(s):  
Temesgen Duressa Keno ◽  
Oluwole Daniel Makinde ◽  
Legesse Lemecha Obsu
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Disease Model ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Bed Nets ◽  
Reproductive Number

In this study, we proposed and analyzed the optimal control and cost-effectiveness strategies for malaria epidemics model with impact of temperature variability. Temperature variability strongly determines the transmission of malaria. Firstly, we proved that all solutions of the model are positive and bounded within a certain set with initial conditions. Using the next-generation matrix method, the basic reproductive number at the present malaria-free equilibrium point was computed. The local stability and global stability of the malaria-free equilibrium were depicted applying the Jacobian matrix and Lyapunov function respectively when the basic reproductive number is smaller than one. However, the positive endemic equilibrium occurs when the basic reproductive number is greater than unity. A sensitivity analysis of the parameters was conducted; the model showed forward and backward bifurcation. Secondly, using Pontryagin’s maximum principle, optimal control interventions for malaria disease reduction are described involving three control measures, namely use of insecticide-treated bed nets, treatment of infected humans using anti-malarial drugs, and indoor residual insecticide spraying. An analysis of cost-effectiveness was also conducted. Finally, based on the simulation of different control strategies, the combination of treatment of infected humans and insecticide spraying was proved to be the most efficient and least costly strategy to eradicate the disease.

scholarly journals Optimal Control of HIV/AIDS in the Workplace in the Presence of Careless Individuals

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baba Seidu ◽  
Oluwole D. Makinde
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Optimal Control Problem ◽  
Control Problem ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamical System ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamical ◽  
Basic Model ◽  
Hiv Aids

A nonlinear dynamical system is proposed and qualitatively analyzed to study the dynamics of HIV/AIDS in the workplace. The disease-free equilibrium point of the model is shown to be locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproductive number,R0, is less than unity and the model is shown to exhibit a unique endemic equilibrium when the basic reproductive number is greater than unity. It is shown that, in the absence of recruitment of infectives, the disease is eradicated whenR0<1, whiles the disease is shown to persist in the presence of recruitment of infected persons. The basic model is extended to include control efforts aimed at reducing infection, irresponsibility, and nonproductivity at the workplace. This leads to an optimal control problem which is qualitatively analyzed using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle (PMP). Numerical simulation of the resulting optimal control problem is carried out to gain quantitative insights into the implications of the model. The simulation reveals that a multifaceted approach to the fight against the disease is more effective than single control strategies.

scholarly journals Control measures of malaria transmission in Rwanda based on SEIR SEI mathematical model

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Hakizimana ◽  
Jean Marie Ntaganda
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Optimal Control Problems ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Bed Nets ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Insecticide Treated Bed Nets ◽  
Malaria Model

This research paper investigated the dynamics of malaria transmission in Rwanda using the nonlinear forces of infections which are included in SEIR-SEI mathematical model for human and mosquito populations. The mathematical modeling of malaria studies the interaction among the human and mosquito populations in controlling malaria transmission and eventually eliminating malaria infection. This work investigates the optimal control strategies for minimizing the rate of malaria transmission by applying three control variables through Caputo fractional derivative. The optimal control problems for malaria model found the control parameters which minimize infection. The numerical simulation showed that the number of exposed and infected people and mosquito population are decreased due to the control strategies. Finally, this work found out that the transmission of malaria in Rwanda can be minimized by using the combination of controls like Insecticide Treated bed Nets (ITNs), Indoor Residual Spray (IRS) and Artemisinin based Combination Therapies (ACTs).

scholarly journals Analysis of Control Interventions against Malaria in communities with Limited Resources

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-91
Author(s):  
E.A. Bakare ◽  
B.O. Onasanya ◽  
S. Hoskova-Mayerova ◽  
O. Olubosede
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Indoor Residual Spraying ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Bed Nets ◽  
Multiple Control ◽  
Potential Impact

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential impact of multiple current interventions in communities with limited resources in order to obtain optimal control strategies and provide a basis for future predictions of the most effective control measures against the spread of malaria. We developed a population-based model of malaria transmission dynamics to investigate the effectiveness of five different interventions. The model captured both the human and the mosquito compartments. The control interventions considered were: educational campaigns to mobilise people for diagnostic test and treatment and to sleep under bed nets; treatment through mass drug administration; indoor residual spraying(IRS) with insecticide to reduce malaria transmission; insecticide treated net (ITN) to reduce morbidity; and regular destruction of mosquito breeding sites to reduce the number of new mosquito and bites/contact at dusks and dawn. Analysis of the potential impact of the multiple control interventions were carried out and the optimal control strategies that minimized the number of infected human and mosquito and the cost of applying the various control interventions were determined.

scholarly journals Application and Optimal Control for an HBV Model with Vaccination and Treatment

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Zhang ◽  
Suxia Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Hepatitis B ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Optimal Theory ◽  
B Virus ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Hbv Model

In this study, we formulate a model for hepatitis B virus with control strategies of newborn vaccination and treatment. Mathematical analysis is done theoretically and numerically. The results indicate that the stability of equilibria and persistence of the disease are determined by the basic reproductive number R0. Using the least squares method, the model is applied to simulate yearly new infected cases of hepatitis B in China from 2004 to 2016. Moreover, optimal control problem with newborn vaccination and treatment appearing as functions of time is analyzed by classical optimal theory. The existence of the solution to optimality system is proved, and the simulations are conducted to show the results when optimal control or current intervention is used.

scholarly journals On the Optimal Control of a Malware Propagation Model

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 1518
Author(s):  
Jose Diamantino Hernández Guillén ◽  
Ángel Martín del Rey ◽  
Roberto Casado Vara
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Security Measures ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
Malware Propagation ◽  
Prevention Measure

An important way considered to control malware epidemic processes is to take into account security measures that are associated to the systems of ordinary differential equations that governs the dynamics of such systems. We can observe two types of control measures: the analysis of the basic reproductive number and the study of control measure functions. The first one is taken at the beginning of the epidemic process and, therefore, we can consider this to be a prevention measure. The second one is taken during the epidemic process. In this work, we use the theory of optimal control that is associated to systems of ordinary equations in order to find a new function to control malware epidemic through time. Specifically, this approach is evaluate on a particular compartmental malware model that considers carrier devices.

scholarly journals Modeling Optimal Control of Cholera Disease Under the Interventions of Vaccination, Treatment and Education Awareness

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Hellen Namawejje ◽  
Emmanuel Obuya ◽  
Livingstone S. Luboobi
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Care Service ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Health Care Service ◽  
Medical Science ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Education Campaigns ◽  
Global Threat

Cholera is virulent disease that affects both children and adults and can kill within hours. It has long been, and continues to be, a global threat to public health regardless of the advancement of medical science and health care service available. In this paper we formulate and analyze a mathematical model of the dynamics and optimal con- trol strategies for cholera epidemic. We present and analyze a cholera model with controls: u1 for vaccination of the human population, u2 for treatment and u3 for health education campaigns. The basic reproductive number R0; the effective reproductive number Re; as well as disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium points are derived. We establish the conditions for optimal control of the cholera disease using the Pontryagin&#39;s maximum principle and simulate the model for different control strategies. The results show that vaccination and education campaigns should be applied from start of the epidemic in any community faced with cholera disease.

scholarly journals The Hopf Bifurcation Analysis and Optimal Control of a Delayed SIR Epidemic Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdelhadi Abta ◽  
Hassan Laarabi ◽  
Hamad Talibi Alaoui
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Hopf Bifurcation ◽  
Critical Value ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Saturated Incidence Rate ◽  
The Impact

We propose a delayed SIR model with saturated incidence rate. The delay is incorporated into the model in order to model the latent period. The basic reproductive number R0 is obtained. Furthermore, using time delay as a bifurcation parameter, it is proven that there exists a critical value of delay for the stability of diseases prevalence. When the delay exceeds the critical value, the system loses its stability and a Hopf bifurcation occurs. The model is extended to assess the impact of some control measures, by reformulating the model as an optimal control problem with vaccination and treatment. The existence of the optimal control is also proved. Finally, some numerical simulations are performed to verify the theoretical analysis.

scholarly journals Modelling and Optimal Control of Typhoid Fever Disease with Cost-Effective Strategies

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Getachew Teshome Tilahun ◽  
Oluwole Daniel Makinde ◽  
David Malonza
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Typhoid Fever ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Effective Strategies ◽  
Next Generation Matrix ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Disease Free

We propose and analyze a compartmental nonlinear deterministic mathematical model for the typhoid fever outbreak and optimal control strategies in a community with varying population. The model is studied qualitatively using stability theory of differential equations and the basic reproductive number that represents the epidemic indicator is obtained from the largest eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix. Both local and global asymptotic stability conditions for disease-free and endemic equilibria are determined. The model exhibits a forward transcritical bifurcation and the sensitivity analysis is performed. The optimal control problem is designed by applying Pontryagin maximum principle with three control strategies, namely, the prevention strategy through sanitation, proper hygiene, and vaccination; the treatment strategy through application of appropriate medicine; and the screening of the carriers. The cost functional accounts for the cost involved in prevention, screening, and treatment together with the total number of the infected persons averted. Numerical results for the typhoid outbreak dynamics and its optimal control revealed that a combination of prevention and treatment is the best cost-effective strategy to eradicate the disease.

scholarly journals TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF DENGUE IN COSTA RICA: THE ROLE OF HOSPITALIZATIONS

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 241-266
Author(s):  
FABIO SANCHEZ ◽  
JORGE ARROYO-ESQUIVEL ◽  
PAOLA VÁSQUEZ
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Specific Parameter ◽  
Public Health Officials ◽  
Disease Free

For decades, dengue virus has caused major problems for public health officials in tropical and subtropical countries around the world. We construct a compartmental model that includes the role of hospitalized individuals in the transmission dynamics of dengue in Costa Rica. The basic reproductive number, R0, is computed, as well as a sensitivity analysis on R0 parameters. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is established. Numerical simulations under specific parameter scenarios are performed to determine optimal prevention/control strategies.

scholarly journals Mathematical modelling for malaria under resistance and population movement

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-163
Author(s):  
Cristhian Montoya ◽  
Jhoana P. Romero Leiton
Keyword(s):  
Human Population ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamic ◽  
Equilibrium Solutions ◽  
Population Movements ◽  
Existence And Stability ◽  
Theoretical Results ◽  
Disease Free

In this work, two mathematical models for malaria under resistance are presented. More precisely, the first model shows the interaction between humans and mosquitoes inside a patch under infection of malaria when the human population is resistant to antimalarial drug and mosquitoes population is resistant to insecticides. For the second model, human–mosquitoes population movements in two patches is analyzed under the same malaria transmission dynamic established in a patch. For a single patch, existence and stability conditions for the equilibrium solutions in terms of the local basic reproductive number are developed. These results reveal the existence of a forward bifurcation and the global stability of disease–free equilibrium. In the case of two patches, a theoretical and numerical framework on sensitivity analysis of parameters is presented. After that, the use of antimalarial drugs and insecticides are incorporated as control strategies and an optimal control problem is formulated. Numerical experiments are carried out in both models to show the feasibility of our theoretical results.

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