Introduction

Author(s):  
Atish R. Ghosh ◽  
Jonathan D. Ostry ◽  
Mahvash S. Qureshi

This introductory chapter provides an overview of capital flows to emerging markets. In principle, cross-border capital flows to emerging markets have the potential to bring several benefits; in practice, however, such flows are inherently risky—though some forms may be worse than others—potentially widening macroeconomic imbalances and creating balance-sheet vulnerabilities. As such, capital flows require active policy management, which might mean mitigating their undesirable consequences using macroeconomic and macroprudential policies, or controlling their volume and composition directly using capital account restrictions, or both. By the same token, if the inflow phase is successfully managed—through the use of structural measures to steer flows toward less risky types of liabilities, and the use of macroeconomic policies, prudential measures, and capital controls for abating the cyclical component of flows and their consequences—the economy is likely to benefit from foreign capital and to remain resilient when flows recede or reverse.

Author(s):  
Atish R. Ghosh ◽  
Jonathan D. Ostry ◽  
Mahvash S. Qureshi

This chapter summarizes how thinking about capital flows and their management has evolved in both policymaking and academic circles. Many advanced economies used restrictions on capital inflows for prudential purposes—even as they pursued financial liberalization more broadly—until the 1980s, when capital account restrictions began to be swept away as part of broader liberalization efforts. Likewise, many emerging markets that had inflow controls for prudential reasons dismantled them when liberalizing domestic financial markets and controls over outflows. That the use of capital controls as a means of managing inflows is often viewed with suspicion may be partly a “guilt by association” with outflow controls and exchange restrictions. Historically, these have been more prevalent and more intensive, and their purpose has been to prop up authoritarian regimes or poor macroeconomic policies, often affecting both current and capital transactions.


Author(s):  
Atish R. Ghosh ◽  
Jonathan D. Ostry ◽  
Mahvash S. Qureshi

This chapter assesses evidence on the effectiveness of various policy tools—foreign exchange (FX) intervention, nondiscriminatory macroprudential policies, capital controls, and currency-based prudential measures. When it comes to macroeconomic imbalances, sterilized FX intervention can be used to mitigate currency-appreciation pressures, and both sterilized intervention and macroprudential measures to curb domestic credit growth. As regards financial fragilities, capital controls can be used to tilt the composition of external liabilities away from riskier flows and restrict excessive foreign borrowing by the financial sector. Conversely, to limit foreign currency-denominated lending in the economy, currency-based macroprudential measures are strongly effective, with capital controls on inflows a possible alternative. The chapter's findings also show a significant association between the economy's resilience during crises and residency-based capital controls or currency-based prudential measures that help prevent the buildup of balance-sheet vulnerabilities.


Author(s):  
Atish R. Ghosh ◽  
Jonathan D. Ostry ◽  
Mahvash S. Qureshi

This chapter presents a welfare-theoretic framework for considering optimal policies to address balance-sheet vulnerabilities. As capital inflows accumulate into stocks of liabilities, they can result in balance-sheet vulnerabilities: heavy indebtedness or maturity or currency mismatches relative to the balance sheet or repayment capacity of the borrower. The theoretically optimal tax would vary according to the stock of liabilities; the composition of the liability, whether the liability is owed to resident or to nonresident creditors; and the extent to which the end-borrower is hedged against the relevant currency risk. Against highly risky forms of liabilities, there may be structural measures—capital controls or prudential policies. But typically the measure should include a cyclical component. This is because the optimal tax depends on the cyclical position of capital flows, as the likelihood that the country suffers a future sudden stop is at maximum at the peak of the cycle.


2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 304-305
Author(s):  
Henna Ahsan

The book discusses the different experiences in Asia and Latin America, while covering the closely related areas under the purview of Emerging Market Economies (EMEs). The first chapter, “Introduction and Overview” has written by Harinder S. Kohli gives an excellent review of the existing literature on the subject. The book discusses six related topics which include nine papers presented at the Emerging Markets Forum Meeting held in Jakarta, Indonesia, in September 2006. The book highlights the main factors of growth and development in Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) now closely related with international capital flows, development of financial market, the countries’ ability to integrate successfully with the global economy through trade and investment and their ability to forge public-private partnerships including infrastructure development. Chapter 2, of the book is an article titled “Global Imbalances, Oil Revenues and Capital Flows to Emerging Market Countries” by Jack Boorman explains the favourable global environment and its impact on capital flows to Emerging Market Countries (EMCs). The EMCs got advantage from this benign global economic environment, such as high economic growth rate, increase in exports, better national balance sheet and increase in foreign exchange reserves, but due to high oil prices the situation has been changed.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Hao Jin ◽  
Chen Xiong

Abstract This paper quantitatively examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of macroprudential policies in open economies. We develop a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, where banks choose their funding sources (domestic vs. foreign deposits) and are subject to financial constraints. Our model predicts that banks reduce leverage in response to a macroprudential policy tightening, but increasingly rely on foreign funding. This endogenous shifts of funding composition significantly undermine the stabilizing effect and welfare gains of macroprudential policies. Our results also suggest macroprudential policies are less effective in financially more open economies, and optimal policy should take capital flows into consideration. Finally, we find empirical support for the model predictions in a group of developing and emerging economies.


2018 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 493-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo J. Caballero ◽  
Alp Simsek

In Caballero and Simsek (2017), we develop a model of fickle capital flows and show that, when countries are similar, international flows create global liquidity and mitigate crises despite their fickleness. In this paper, we focus on the asymmetric situation of Emerging Markets (EM) exchanging flows with Developed Markets (DM) that feature lower returns but less frequent crises. Relatively high DM returns help to mitigate EM crises by reducing fickle inflows and by providing greater liquidity. The situation dramatically changes as the DM returns fall, as this increases the fickle inflows driven by reach for yield and exacerbates EM crises.


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