Future Property Risk Estimation For Wildfire In Louisiana, USA

Background: Wildfire is an important but understudied natural hazard. As with other natural hazards, wildfire research is all too often conducted at too broad a spatial scale to identify local or regional patterns. This study addresses these gaps by examining the current and future wildfire property risk at the census-block level in Louisiana, a U.S. state with relatively dense population and substantial vulnerability to loss from this hazard, despite its wet climate. Here wildfire risk is defined as the product of exposure and vulnerability to the hazard, where exposure is a function of the historical and anticipated future wildfire frequency and extent, and the latter is a function of population, structure and content property value, damage probability, and percent of property damaged. Results: Historical (1992−2015) average annual statewide property loss due to wildfire was $5,556,389 (2010$), with the greatest risk to wildfire in southwestern inland, east-central, extreme northwestern, and coastal southwestern Louisiana. Based on existing climate and environmental model output, this research projects that wildfire will increase by 25 percent by 2050 in Louisiana from current values. When combined with projections of population and property value, it is determined that the geographic distribution of risk by 2050 will remain similar to that today – with highest risk in southwestern inland Louisiana and east-central Louisiana. However, the magnitude of risk will increase across the state, especially in those areas. Projected annual loss will be $11,167,496 by 2050 (2010$) due to population growth, intensification of development at the wildland-urban interface, and climate change. The wildfire-induced property damage is notable because it is projected to increase by 101 percent. These values do not include crop, forestry, or indirect losses (e.g., cost of evacuation and missed time at work), which are likely to be substantial. Conclusions: The results suggest that increased efforts are needed to contain wildfires, to reduce the future risk. Otherwise, wildfire managers, environmental planners, actuaries, community leaders, and individual property owners in Louisiana will need to anticipate and budget for additional efforts to mitigate the economic (and presumably other) impacts associated with a substantial and increasing hazard that often goes underestimated.

Shifts in Dry-Wet Climate Regions over China and Its Related Climate Factors between 1960–1989 and 1990–2019

The shifts in dry-wet climate regions are a natural response to climate change and have a profound impact on the regional agriculture and ecosystems. In this paper, we divided China into four dry-wet climate regions, i.e., arid, semi-arid, semi-humid, and humid regions, based on the humidity index (HI). A comparison of the two 30-year periods, i.e., 1960–1989 and 1990–2019, revealed that there was a shift in climate type in each dry-wet climate region, with six newly formed transitions, and the total area of the shifts to wetter conditions was more than two times larger than that of the shifts to drier conditions. Interestingly, the shifts to drier types were basically distributed in the monsoon region (east of 100∘ E) and especially concentrated in the North China Plain where agricultural development relies heavily on irrigation, which would increase the challenges in dealing with water shortage and food production security under a warming climate. The transitions to wetter types were mainly distributed in western China (west of 100∘ E), and most areas of the Junggar Basin have changed from arid to semi-arid region, which should benefit the local agricultural production and ecological environment to some extent. Based on a contribution analysis method, we further quantified the impacts of each climate factor on HI changes. Our results demonstrated that the dominant factor controlling HI changes in the six newly formed transition regions was P, followed by air temperature (Ta). In the non-transition zones of the arid and semi-arid regions, an increase in P dominated the increase of HI. However, in the non-transition zones of the semi-humid and humid region with a more humid background climate, the thermal factors (e.g., Ta, and net radiation (Rn)) contributed more than or equivalent to the contribution of P to HI change. These findings can provide scientific reference for water resources management and sustainable agricultural development in the context of climate change.

Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models?

Whether there is a transition underway, from a warm-dry climate to a warm-wet climate in Northwest China remains a controversial and scientifically significant issue. Will this trend continue in the future? Another hot issue is whether the climate in Northwest China will continue to be warm and humid over the next few decades. In this paper, eight CMIP6 models were employed to investigate temperature and precipitation changes under five principal Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (from 2015 to 2099) to project the future warming and humidification in Northwest China using the SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) method. The results revealed that (1) the simulated temperature and precipitation of eight CMIP6 models were consistent with that of observed data during 1961–2014, which showed an increase of approximately 28.2 mm, while simulated data revealed an increase of approximately 9.4 mm. The annual precipitation gradually decreased from Eastern Inner Mongolia and the Southern Northwest Mongolia region (>700 mm) to the Central Northwest Mongolia region (<100 mm) from 1961 to 2014; (2) the MME significantly overestimated the temperature and slightly underestimated the precipitation in Northwest Mongolia. The temperature difference between the simulated and observed data was approximately 0.4 °C. The observed data showed an increase of approximately 0.9 °C from 1961 to 2014, whereas the simulated data revealed an increase of approximately 0.7 °C; (3) in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the percentage of precipitation anomalies at 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 °C were 166.64, 190.58, 226.44, and 274.56%, respectively; thus, alleviating the drought situation while facilitating the warm-dry to warm-wet climate transition; (4) the water balance between rising temperatures and increased evapotranspiration resulting from increased precipitation suggested that not all sites will be wet in the future. There was still a drying trend in some areas, where drought was more severe under the high emissions scenario than the low emissions scenario.

TIPOMORFOLOGI ARSITEKTUR BANGUNAN PECINAN DI KESAWAN MEDAN

Most of the buildings in Kesawan-Medan still maintain the Dutch-Chinese architecture of the transitional period or the Transitional architecture, although the awareness to preserve this historical heritage is still low. Furthermore, there is no regulation limiting changes that may be made, yet it has not been designated as a Cultural Conservation Building. This situation raises fears of losing track of the original building. This paper intends to explain the typomorphological characteristics of the Chinatown building architecture in Kesawan-Medan. The method used is desk research on research reports, various sources of books, and journals. The theory used is the theory of area morphology and building typology from Andre Loeckx and Markus Zahnd. The general condition of the building has not lost its original form. Renovations were carried out within the limits of repainting, repairing damaged elements, and changing functions. Typomorphology is evident from the materials used and their layout. Building materials used are from the surrounding environment, such as bricks, tile roofs, and windows. The layout of the building is in the residential emplacement area of the city center, with a flat topography in the tropical wet climate of Indonesia. Permukiman kesawan Medan sebagian besar masih mempertahankan arsitektur bangunan Belanda-China periode peralihan atau arsitektur Transisi, walaupun kesadaran pelestarian peninggalan bernilai sejarah masih minim. Belum ada peraturan batasan perubahan yang boleh dilakukan dan belum ditetapkan sebagai Bangunan Cagar Budaya. Keadaan ini menimbulkan kekhawatiran akan kehilangan jejak bangunan aslinya. Tulisan ini bermaksud untuk menjelaskan karakteristik tipomorfologi arsitektur bangunan pecinan di kesawan Medan. Metode yang digunakan adalah desk research terhadap laporan hasil penelitian, berbagai sumber buku dan jurnal. Menggunakan teori morfologi kawasan dan tipologi bangunan dari Andre Loeckx dan Markus Zahnd. Kondisi bangunan secara umum belum kehilangan bentuk aslinya. Renovasi dilakukan dalam batas pengecatan ulang, perbaikan elemen yang rusak, dan perubahan fungsi. Tipomorfologi khasnya tampak dari bahan yang digunakan dan tata letaknya. Bahan bangunan dari lingkungan sekitar, seperti bata, keramik atap genting dan jendela. Tata letak bangunan berada di kawasan emplasemen permukiman pusat kota, dengan topografi lahan datar dalam lingkungan iklim tropis basah Indonesia.

Reconstruction of Climate Changes on Based δ18Ocarb on the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau: A 16.1-cal kyr BP Record From Hurleg Lake

Hydroclimate evolution history and changes in the Tibetan Plateau play significant roles in depicting paleoclimate and evaluating climatic conditions in the coming future. However, the interaction of the westerlies and the Asian monsoon complicates our understanding of the mechanism of climate variation over the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we assessed the paleoclimate of Hurleg Lake, which was previously located in the convergence area of the East Asian monsoon and westerly wind. We first reconstructed the climatic conditions based on fined-grained authigenic carbonate δ18O (δ18Ocarb), plant-derived proxies of C/N, and n-alkane-derived δ13C31. In the Hurleg Lake, δ18Ocarb was controlled by δ18O changes of the lake water and evaporation. The climate evolution since ∼16.1 cal kyr BP can be classified into three stages. The Lateglacial (16.1–11.0 cal kyr BP) was characterized by a warm-wet climate in the beginning, followed by a cold-dry climate since 12.0 cal kyr BP. Typical warm and cold phases occurred during 14.8–12.0 cal kyr BP and 12.0–11.1 cal kyr BP, which may correspond to the Bølling/Allerød (B/A) and Younger Dryas periods, respectively. The early to mid-Holocene was generally characterized by a warm-wet climate; however, notable cold-dry intervals occurred at ∼8.3 cal kyr BP. The Late Holocene (after 4.8 cal kyr BP) displayed a significantly cold-wet climate. Finally, we examined the possible mechanisms responsible for the climate variability in the study area. The results showed that the long-term warm trend in the Lateglacial and colder trend after early Holocene was controlled by insolation. The Asian summer monsoon and the westerlies played a significant role in determining moisture sources during the Lateglacial. The East Asian monsoon contributed greatly to the moisture variation from the early to mid-Holocene, whereas the westerly winds dominated during the late Holocene. Combined, our findings highlight the complex changes in hydroclimate conditions since the last glacial in the Tibetan Plateau and provide crucial implications for comprehending the hydroclimate pattern in the transition zone of westerlies and Asian monsoon.

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Dry-Wet Conditions and Boundaries in Five Provinces of Northwest China from 1960 to 2020

The study of dry-wet climate boundaries in the context of climate warming is of great practical significance for improving the environment of ecologically fragile zones and promoting economic and natural sustainable development. In this study, based on the daily meteorological data of 110 stations, using the wetness index, empirical orthogonal function decomposition, regime shift detection test, Fourier power spectrum, and Kriging interpolation, the researchers analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of dry-wet conditions and boundaries in five provinces of Northwest China from 1960 to 2020. The results showed that the overall wetness index increased in the past 61 years, but with significant internal differences, among which the western and central climate tended to be warm and wet, and the eastern tended to be warm and dry. The annual wetness index changed abruptly in 1986 with cycles of 3.61 a, 7.11 a and 8.83 a. The mutations occurred correspondingly in spring, summer, autumn, and winter in 1972, 1976, 1983, and 1988, with periods of 3.88 a and 4.92 a, 2.18 a and 2.81 a, 2.15 a, and 2.10 a, respectively. The dry-wet climate boundary has fluctuated markedly since 1960. The extreme arid and arid regions boundary shifted southward and shrank in size until the extreme arid region disappeared in the 2010s. The arid along with semi-arid regions and semi-arid in addition to semi-humid regions boundaries both have two boundary lines, and show the shift of the northwestern boundary to the southeast and the southeastern boundary to the northwest, with the area of the arid together with semi-arid regions shrinking significantly by 5.64%, simultaneously, the area of the semi-humid region area expanding significantly by 84.11%. The boundary of semi-humid and relatively humid regions, and the boundary of relatively humid and humid regions all shifted to the southeast, moreover, the area of the relatively humid region and humid region shrank significantly by 12.08%. The expansion of semi-humid region and the contraction of other climate regions are characteristics of the dry-wet climate variability in five provinces of Northwest China. The area of the three arid climate zones dwindled by 9.61%, and the area of the three humid zones extended by 39.01%. Obviously, the climate inclined to be warm and humid in general.

Evaluation of Eco-Environmental Quality in Qaidam Basin Based on the Ecological Index (MRSEI) and GEE

As the population has increased and the economy has developed in the Qaidam Basin, the demand for food and energy in the basin has increased, and the contradiction between economic development and ecological protection is gradually becoming prominent. In this study, the eco-environmental quality of the Qaidam Basin from 1986 to 2019 was evaluated and analyzed based on the Modified Remote Sensing Ecological Index (MRSEI) retrieved by the Google Earth Engine (GEE) and meteorological and socioeconomic auxiliary data. The results show that (1) the Qaidam Basin had a lower overall level of eco-environmental quality, with higher eco-environmental quality in the southeastern part of the basin and lower eco-environmental quality in the central and northwestern parts of the basin. (2) During the period of 1986 to 2019, the eco-environmental quality of the Qaidam Basin started to reverse in 2003; it decreased first and then increased, and the overall performance showed an upward trend over the past 34 years. The most obvious changes were in the northwestern, northeastern, southwestern and central parts of the basin. The eco-environmental quality continued to decline in the northwestern and rise in the northeastern and southwestern regions, and in the central part, it decreased first and then plateaued. (3) The eco-environmental quality of the Qaidam Basin was affected by both natural and human factors. From 1986 to 2019, the “warm and wet” climate in the basin promoted the growth of vegetation. Furthermore, the optimization of industrial structures alleviated the pressure of agriculture and livestock and jointly improved the ecological environment in the Qaidam Basin.

Forecasting East Belitung Regency Rainfall Data by Reviewing Heteroscedasticity

East Belitung Regency is one of the regencies located on Belitung Island. East Belitung Regency has a tropical and wet climate with a fairly high variation of rainfall. Rainfall forecasting is an important thing to model because of the many uses of rainfall forecasting results such as irrigation planning, flood prediction, erosion prediction and others. This study aims to predict rainfall for the next 5 years by using a time series model by reviewing the heteroscedasticity of the data. From the results of the analysis of rainfall in East Belitung Regency with a seasonal pattern. The best model used is ARIMA (0, l, l)(2, l, l)12 with insignificant heteroscedasticity.

Evaluation of Land Suitability for Pepper Plants (Piper Nigrum Linn) in Kindang District, Bulukumba Regency

This study aims to determine the characteristics of the land and determine land suitability for pepper (Piper Nigrum Linn) in Kindang District, Kab. Bulukumba. The type of this research is descriptive quantitative research by using survey method of soil observation. In this study, using purposive sampling data collection techniques on eleven land units by taking samples of undisturbed soil. The results of this study indicate the characteristics of the land in the research location, namely wet climate; medium temperature ; availability of water and high rainfall; good drainage; the dominant texture class is smooth and slightly fine; medium coarse fraction; good effective depth; high clay CEC value; medium base saturation; non sodic alkalinity; erosion hazard levels that range from very low to very severe; no flood hazard; and medium land preparation. The actual land suitability class) consists of: class S2 (fairly suitable) covering an area of 36.5 km2, class S3 (marginally appropriate) covering an area of 52.6 km2 class N (not suitable) covering an area of 54,3 km2.

Prediction of municipality-level winter wheat yield based on meteorological data using machine learning in Hokkaido, Japan

This study analyzed meteorological constraints on winter wheat yield in the northern Japanese island, Hokkaido, and developed a machine learning model to predict municipality-level yields from meteorological data. Compared to most wheat producing areas, this island is characterized by wet climate owing to greater annual precipitation and abundant snowmelt water supply in spring. Based on yield statistics collected from 119 municipalities for 14 years (N = 1,516) and high-resolution surface meteorological data, correlation analyses showed that precipitation, daily minimum air temperature, and irradiance during the grain-filling period had significant effects on the yield throughout the island while the effect of snow depth in early winter and spring was dependent on sites. Using 10-d mean meteorological data within a certain period between seeding and harvest as predictor variables and one-year-leave-out cross-validation procedure, performance of machine learning models based on neural network (NN), random forest (RF), support vector machine regression (SVR), partial least squares regression (PLS), and cubist regression (CB) were compared to a multiple linear regression model (MLR) and a null model that returns an average yield of the municipality. The root mean square errors of PLS, SVR, and RF were 872, 982, and 1,024 kg ha−1 and were smaller than those of MLR (1,068 kg ha−1) and null model (1,035 kg ha−1). These models outperformed the controls in other metrics including Pearson’s correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Variable importance analysis on PLS indicated that minimum air temperature and precipitation during the grain-filling period had major roles in the prediction and excluding predictors in this period (i.e. yield forecast with a longer lead-time) decreased forecast performance of the models. These results were consistent with our understanding of meteorological impacts on wheat yield, suggesting usefulness of explainable machine learning in meteorological crop yield prediction under wet climate.