U.S. State Life Tables, 2019

This report presents complete period life tables for each of the 50 states and District of Columbia by sex, based on 2019 age-specific death rates.

Trends in Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation Following ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Over a 20-Year Period

Background: Ischemic mitral regurgitation (IMR) is a common complication of acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Little is known regarding the impact of IMR over a long period of follow up.Methods: Of 3,208 consecutive STEMI patients from a prospective registry, full echocardiographic information was available for 2,985 patients between the years 2000 and 2020. We compared the two decades- 2001 to 2010 and 2011 to 2020, and assessed for the presence of IMR at baseline, 3 (range 2–6) months and 12 (range 10–14) months after the index event.Results: One thousand six hundred and sixty six patients were included in the first decade, 1,319 in the second. Mean patient age was 61.3 ± 12.3 years, 21.1% female patients in the first decade vs. 60.9 ± 12.0 years and 22.2% female in the second (p = 0.40 and p = 0.212, respectively). Rates of moderate IMR or above during the index admission were 17.2% in the first period and 9.3% in the second one (p < 0.001). After 3 months, the rate of IMR was 48.5% for those who suffered from IMR at baseline, vs. 9.5% for those without IMR at baseline (HR- 4.2, p < 0.001). Death rates for those with moderate IMR or above were 14.7% and 17.8% after 1 and 2 years, respectively, vs. 7.3 and 9.6% for those without (p < 0.001 for both). IMR was associated with 1 year mortality in multivariate analysis (HR-1.37; 1.09–2.20, p = 0.009), as well as in propensity score matched analysis (HR 1.29; CI: 1.07–1.91; p < 0.001).Conclusions: IMR is a common complication following acute STEMI, impacting prognosis. Rates of IMR have declined significantly over the years.

National trauma system establishment based on implementation of regional trauma centers improves outcomes of trauma care: A follow-up observational study in South Korea

Although South Korea is a high-income country, its trauma system is comparable to low- and middle-income countries with high preventable trauma death rates of more than 30%. Since 2012, South Korea has established a national trauma system based on the implementation of regional trauma centers and improvement of the transfer system; this study aimed to evaluate its effectiveness. We compared the national preventable trauma death rates, transfer patterns, and outcomes between 2015 and 2017. The review of preventable trauma deaths was conducted by multiple panels, and a severity-adjusted logistic regression model was created to identify factors influencing the preventable trauma death rate. We also compared the number of trauma patients transferred to emergency medical institutions and mortality in models adjusted with injury severity scores. The preventable trauma death rate decreased from 2015 to 2017 (30.5% vs. 19.9%, p < 0.001). In the severity-adjusted model, the preventable trauma death risk had a lower odds ratio (0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.53–0.87, p = 0.002) in 2017 than in 2015. Regional trauma centers received 1.6 times more severe cases in 2017 (according to the International Classification of Diseases Injury Severity Score [ICISS]; 23.1% vs. 36.5%). In the extended ICISS model, the overall trauma mortality decreased significantly from 2.1% (1008/47 806) to 1.9% (1062/55 057) (p = 0.041). The establishment of the national trauma system was associated with significant improvements in the performance and outcomes of trauma care. This was mainly because of the implementation of regional trauma centers and because more severe patients were transferred to regional trauma centers. This study might be a good model for low- and middle-income countries, which lack a trauma system.

The emergence, spread and vanishing of a French SARS-CoV-2 variant exemplifies the fate of RNA virus epidemics and obeys the Black Queen rule

The nature and dynamics of mutations associated with the emergence, spread and vanishing of SARS-CoV-2 variants causing successive waves are complex. We determined the kinetics of the most common French variant (Marseille-4) for 10 months since its onset in July 2020. Here, we analysed and classified into subvariants and lineages 7,453 genomes obtained by next-generation sequencing. We identified two subvariants, Marseille-4A, which contains 22 different lineages of at least 50 genomes, and Marseille-4B. Their average lifetime was 4.1+/-1.4 months, during which 4.1+/-2.6 mutations accumulated. Growth rate was 0.079+/-0.045, varying from 0.010 to 0.173. All the lineages exhibited a gamma distribution. Several beneficial mutations at unpredicted sites initiated a new outbreak, while the accumulation of other mutations resulted in more viral heterogenicity, increased diversity and vanishing of the lineages. Marseille-4B emerged when the other Marseille-4 lineages vanished. Its ORF8 gene was knocked out by a stop codon, as reported in several mink lineages and in the alpha variant. This subvariant was associated with increased hospitalization and death rates, suggesting that ORF8 is a nonvirulence gene. We speculate that the observed heterogenicity of a lineage may predict the end of the outbreak.

Predicting County-Level Overdose Death Rates Amid the Escalating Overdose Crisis in the United States: A Statistical Modeling Approach Predicting Deaths Through 2022

Aims. U.S. overdose (OD) deaths continue to escalate but are characterized by geographic and temporal heterogeneity. We previously validated a predictive statistical model to predict county-level OD mortality nationally from 2013 to 2018. Herein, we aimed to: 1) validate our model’s performance at predicting county-level OD mortality in 2019 and 2020; 2) modify and validate our model to predict OD mortality in 2022.Methods. We evaluated our mixed effects negative binomial model’s performance at predicting county-level OD mortality in 2019 and 2020. Further, we modified our model which originally used data from the year X to predict OD deaths in the year X+1 to instead predict deaths in year X+3. We validated this modification for the years 2017 through 2019 and generated future-oriented predictions for 2022. Finally, to leverage available, albeit incomplete, 2020 OD mortality data, we also modified and validated our model to predict OD deaths in year X+2 and generated an alternative set of predictions for 2022.Results. Our original model continued to perform with similar efficacy in 2019 and 2020, remaining superior to a benchmark approach. Our modified X+3 model performed with similar efficacy as our original model, and we present predictions for 2022, including identification of counties most likely to experience highest OD mortality rates. There was a high correlation (Spearman’s ρ = 0.93) between the rank ordering of counties for our 2022 predictions using our X+3 and X+2 models. However, the X+3 model (which did not account for OD escalation during COVID) predicted only 62,000 deaths nationwide for 2022, whereas the X+2 model predicted over 87,000.Conclusion. We have predicted county-level overdose death rates for 2022 across the US. These predictions, made publicly available in our online application, can be used to identify counties at highest risk of high OD mortality and support evidence-based OD prevention planning.

COVID-19 Future Predictions Using 4 Supervised Machine Learning Models

Forecasting Mechanisms like Machine Learning (ML) models having been proving their significance to anticipate perioperative outcomes in the domain of decision making on the future course of actions. Many application domains have witnessed the use of ML models for identification and prioritization of adverse factors for a threat. The spread of COVID-19 has proven to be a great threat to a mankind announcing it a worldwide pandemic throughout. Many assets throughout the world has faced enormous infectivity and contagiousness of this illness. To look at the figure of undermining components of COVID-19 we’ve specifically used four Machine Learning Models Linear Regression (LR), Least shrinkage and determination administrator (LASSO), Support vector machine (SVM) and Exponential smoothing (ES). The results depict that the ES performs best among the four models employed in this study, followed by LR and LASSO which performs well in forecasting the newly confirmed cases, death rates yet recovery rates, but SVM performs poorly all told the prediction scenarios given the available dataset.

Evaluation of Preventive Measures and Forecasting of COVID-19 Infection: Case Study Egypt.

Background COVID-19 is a highly infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. This article assessed the effectiveness of preventive measures of COVID-19 infection, including social distancing (SD) and quarantine (Q) of patients and contacts in Egypt. Methods A simple model was developed to predict the infection rate without preventive measures. The article utilizes fertile meta- heuristic technique and particle swarm optimization (PSO), to predict the growth of the disease. Results A correlation between the predicted and actual infected cases, validated the proposed forecasting algorithm. Preventive measures together with the Egyptian Government stay home order reduced 98% of expected infections. PSO analyses showed that infection and death rates will continue to increase particularly with lifting these restrictive preventive measures. Conclusions The advised PSO model could predict COVID-19 infection and death rates with high degree of accuracy. This prediction model could help health authorities in decision making.

Deterministic approximation for population dynamics in the presence of advantageous mutants

Spatial stochastic simulations of evolutionary processes are computationally expensive. Here, based on spatially explicit decoupling approximations (SEDA) introduced by us earlier, we derive a deterministic approximation to a spatial stochastic birth-death process in the presence of two types: the less advantageous resident type and a more advantageous mutant. At the core of this technique are two essential steps: (1) a system of ODEs that approximate spatial interactions among neighboring individuals must be solved; (2) the time-variable has to be rescaled with a factor (called "alpha") that depends on the kinetic parameters of the wild type and mutant individuals. An explicit formula for alpha is derived, which is a power law of division and death rates of the two types. The method is relatively fast and provides excellent time-series agreement with the stochastic simulation results for the spatial agent-based model. The methodology can be used to describe hard selective sweep events, including the expansion of driver mutations in carcinogenesis, bacterial evolution, and aspects of resistance dynamics.

Healthwise, Part 5. Prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted the importance of public health in the UK and globally. The UK's death rates and obesity rates are related and many people in the UK experience poor health because they are overweight or obese ( Lobstein, 2021 ; Mohammad et al, 2021 ). Obesity increases the risks of developing type 2 diabetes. People with both type 1 and type 2 diabetes are at greater risk of developing severe COVID symptoms, of requiring hospital treatment and of poor outcomes and death ( Barron et al, 2020 ). This article, the fifth in a series, examines risk factors for type 2 diabetes and explains how readers can reduce their risk of developing type 2 diabetes.