Spatial and subannual variability of the Antarctic Slope Current in an eddying ocean-sea ice model

The Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) circumnavigates the Antarctic continent following the continental slope and separating the waters on the continental shelf from the deeper offshore Southern Ocean. Water mass exchanges across the continental slope are critical for the global climate as they impact the global overturning circulation and the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet via basal melting. Despite the ASC’s global importance, little is known about its spatial and subannual variability, as direct measurements of the velocity field are sparse. Here, we describe the ASC in a global eddying ocean-sea ice model and reveal its large-scale spatial variability by characterising the continental slope using three regimes: the surface-intensified ASC, the bottom-intensified ASC and the reversed ASC. Each ASC regime corresponds to a distinct classification of the density field as previously introduced in the literature, suggesting that the velocity and density fields are governed by the same leading-order dynamics around the Antarctic continental slope. Only the surface-intensified ASC regime has a strong seasonality. However, large temporal variability at a range of other timescales occurs across all regimes, including frequent reversals of the current. We anticipate our description of the ASC’s spatial and subannual variability to be helpful to guide future studies of the ASC aiming to advance our understanding of the region’s response to a changing climate.

The Antarctic contribution to 21st century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet

The Antarctic Ice Sheet will play a crucial role in the evolution of global mean sea-level as the climate warms. An interactively coupled climate and ice sheet model is needed to understand the impacts of ice—climate feedbacks during this evolution. Here we use a two-way coupling between the U.K. Earth System Model and the BISICLES dynamic ice sheet model to investigate Antarctic ice—climate interactions under two climate change scenarios. We perform ensembles of SSP1-1.9 and SSP5-8.5 scenario simulations to 2100, which we believe are the first such simulations with a climate model with two-way coupling between both atmosphere and ocean models to dynamic models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In SSP1-1.9 simulations, ice shelf basal melting and grounded ice mass loss are generally lower than present rates during the entire simulation period. In contrast, the responses to SSP5-8.5 forcing are strong. By the end of 21st century, these simulations feature order-of-magnitude increases in basal melting of the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves, caused by intrusions of warm ocean water masses. Due to the slow response of ice sheet drawdown, this strong melting does not cause a substantial increase in ice discharge during the simulations. The surface mass balance in SSP5-8.5 simulations shows a pattern of strong decrease on ice shelves, caused by increased melting, and strong increase on grounded ice, caused by increased snowfall. Despite strong surface and basal melting of the ice shelves, increased snowfall dominates the mass budget of the grounded ice, leading to an ensemble-mean Antarctic contribution to global mean sea level of a fall of 22 mm by 2100 in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. We hypothesise that this signal would revert to sea-level rise on longer timescales, caused by the ice sheet dynamic response to ice shelf thinning. These results demonstrate the need for fully coupled ice—climate models in reducing the substantial uncertainty in sea-level rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

On the evolution of an ice shelf melt channel at the base of Filchner Ice Shelf, from observations and viscoelastic modeling

Ice shelves play a key role in the stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet due to their buttressing effect. A loss of buttressing as a result of increased basal melting or ice shelf disintegration will lead to increased ice discharge. Some ice shelves exhibit channels at the base that are not yet fully understood. In this study, we present in-situ melt rates of a channel which is up to 330 m high and located at the southern Filchner Ice Shelf. Maximum observed melt rates are 2.3 m a−1. Melt rates decline inside the channel along flow and turn into freezing 55 km downstream of the grounding line. While closer to the grounding line melt rates are higher within the channel than outside, this reverses further downstream. Comparing the evolution of this channel under present-day climate conditions over 250 years with its present geometry reveals a mismatch. This mismatch indicates melt rates two times higher were necessary over the past 250 years to form today's channel geometry. In contrast, forcing the model with present-day melt rates results in a closure of the channel, which contradicts observations. Time series of melt rate measurements show strong tidally-induced variability in vertical strain-rates. We found no evidence of seasonality, but discrete pulses of increased melting occurred throughout the measurement period. The type of melt channel in this study diminishes with distance from the grounding line and are hence not a destabilizing factor for ice shelves.

Evaluation of basal melting parameterisations using in situ ocean and melting observations from the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica

Ocean driven melting of Antarctic ice shelves is causing grounded ice to be lost from the Antarctic continent at an accelerating rate. However, the ocean processes governing ice shelf melting are not well understood, contributing to uncertainty in projections of Antarctica's contribution to sea level. Here, we analyse oceanographic data and in situ measurements of ice shelf melt collected from an instrumented mooring beneath the centre of the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica. This is the first direct measurement of basal melting from the Amery Ice Shelf, and was made through the novel application of an upwards-facing Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP). ADCP data were also used to map a region of the ice base, revealing a steep topographic feature or “scarp” in the ice with vertical and horizontal scales of ~20 m and ~40 m respectively. The annually-averaged ADCP-derived melt rate of 0.51 ± 0.18 m yr−1 is consistent with previous modelling results and glaciological estimates, and there is significant seasonal variation in melting with a maximum in May and a minimum in September. Melting is driven by temperatures ~0.2 °C above the local freezing point and background and tidal currents, which have typical speeds of ~3.0 cm s−1 and 10.0 cm s−1 respectively. We use the coincident measurements of ice shelf melt and oceanographic forcing to evaluate parameterisations of ice-ocean interactions, and find that parameterisations in which there is an explicit dependence of the melt rate on current speed beneath the ice tend to overestimate the local melt rate at AM06 by between 200 % and 400 %, depending on the choice of drag coefficient. A convective parameterisation in which melting is a function of the slope of the ice base is also evaluated and is shown to under-predict melting by 20 % at this site. Using available observations from other ice shelves, we show that a common current speed-dependent parameterisation overestimates melting at all but the coldest, most energetic cavity conditions.

Shear-margin melting causes stronger transient ice discharge than ice-stream melting according to idealized simulations

Basal ice-shelf melting is the key driver of Antarctica's increasing sea-level contribution. In diminishing the buttressing force of the ice shelves that fringe the ice sheet the melting increases the solid-ice discharge into the ocean. Here we contrast the influence of basal melting in two different ice-shelf regions on the time-dependent response of an idealized, inherently buttressed ice-sheet-shelf system. Carrying out three-dimensional numerical simulations, the basal-melt perturbations are applied close to the grounding line in the ice-shelf's 1) ice-stream region, where the ice shelf is fed by the fastest ice masses that stream through the upstream bed trough and 2) shear margins, where the ice flow is slower. The results show that melting below one or both of the shear margins can cause a decadal to centennial increase in ice discharge that is more than twice as large compared to a similar perturbation in the ice-stream region. We attribute this to the fact that melt-induced ice-shelf thinning in the central grounding-line region is attenuated very effectively by the fast flow of the central ice stream. In contrast, the much slower ice dynamics in the lateral shear margins of the ice shelf facilitate sustained ice-shelf thinning and thereby foster buttressing reduction. Regardless of the melt location, a higher melt concentration toward the grounding line generally goes along with a stronger response. Our results highlight the vulnerability of outlet glaciers to basal melting in stagnant, buttressing-relevant ice-shelf regions, a mechanism that may gain importance under future global warming.

Modeling the Greenland englacial stratigraphy

Radar reflections from the interior of the Greenland ice sheet contain a comprehensive archive of past accumulation rates, ice dynamics, and basal melting. Combining these data with dynamic ice sheet models may greatly aid model calibration, improve past and future sea level estimates, and enable insights into past ice sheet dynamics that neither models nor data could achieve alone. Unfortunately, simulating the continental-scale ice sheet stratigraphy represents a major challenge for current ice sheet models. In this study, we present the first three-dimensional ice sheet model that explicitly simulates the Greenland englacial stratigraphy. Individual layers of accumulation are represented on a grid whose vertical axis is time so that they do not exchange mass with each other as the flow of ice deforms them. This isochronal advection scheme does not influence the ice dynamics and only requires modest input data from a host thermomechanical ice sheet model, making it easy to transfer to a range of models. Using an ensemble of simulations, we show that direct comparison with the dated radiostratigraphy data yields notably more accurate results than calibrating simulations based on total ice thickness. We show that the isochronal scheme produces a more reliable simulation of the englacial age profile than traditional age tracers. The interpretation of ice dynamics at different times is possible but limited by uncertainties in the upper and lower boundary conditions, namely temporal variations in surface mass balance and basal friction.

Rapid fragmentation of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, West Antarctica

Ice shelves play a key role in the dynamics of marine ice sheets, by buttressing grounded ice and limiting rates of ice flux to the oceans. In response to recent climatic and oceanic change, ice shelves fringing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) have begun to fragment and retreat, with major implications for ice sheet stability. Here, we focus on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS), the remaining pinned floating extension of Thwaites Glacier. We show that TEIS has undergone a process of fragmentation in the last five years, including brittle failure along a major shear zone, formation of tensile cracks on the main body of the shelf, and release of tabular bergs on both eastern and western flanks. Simulations with the Helsinki Discrete Element Model (HiDEM) show that this pattern of failure is associated with high backstress from a submarine pinning point at the distal edge of the shelf. We show that a significant zone of shear upstream of the main pinning point developed in response to the rapid acceleration of the shelf between 2002 and 2006, seeding damage on the shelf. Subsequently, basal melting and positive feedbacks between damage and strain rates weakened TEIS, allowing damage to accumulate. Thus, although backstress on TEIS has likely diminished through time as the pinning point has shrunk, accumulation of damage has ensured that the ice in the shear zone has remained the weakest link in the system. Experiments with the BISICLES ice sheet model indicate that additional damage to or unpinning of TEIS are unlikely to trigger significantly increased ice loss from WAIS, but the calving response to loss of TEIS remains highly uncertain. It is widely recognised that ice-shelf fragmentation and collapse can be triggered by hydrofracturing and/or unpinning from ice shelf margins or grounding points. Our results indicate a third mechanism, backstress-triggered failure, that can occur when ice ffractures in response to stresses associated with pinning points. In most circumstances, pinning points are essential for ice shelf stability, but as ice shelves thin and weaken the concentration of backstress in damaged ice upstream of a pinning point may provide the seeds of their demise.

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Variability of Fronts on the Amery Ice Shelf Automatically Detected Using Sentinel-1 SAR Data

The Amery Ice Shelf (AIS) dynamics and mass balance caused by iceberg calving and basal melting are significant in the ocean climate system. Using satellite imagery from Sentinel-1 SAR, we monitored the temporal and spatial variability of the frontal positions on the Amery Ice Shelf, Antarctica, from 2015 to 2021. In this paper, we propose an automatic algorithm based on the SO-CFAR strategy and a profile cumulative method for frontal line extraction. To improve the accuracy of the extracted frontal lines, we developed a framework combining the Constant False Alarm Rate (CFAR) and morphological image-processing strategies. A visual comparison between the proposed algorithm and state-of-the-art algorithm shows that our algorithm is effective in these cases including rifts, icebergs, and crevasses as well as ice-shelf surface structures. We present a detailed analysis of the temporal and spatial variability of fronts on AIS that we find, an advance of the AIS frontal line before the D28 calving event, and a continuous advance after the event. The study reveals that the AIS extent has been advanced at the rate of 1015 m/year. Studies have shown that the frontal location of AIS has continuously expanded. From March 2015 to May 2021, the frontal location of AIS expanded by 6.5 km; while the length of the AIS frontal line is relatively different after the D28 event, the length of the frontal line increased by about 7.5% during 2015 and 2021 (255.03 km increased to 273.5 km). We found a substantial increase in summer advance rates and a decrease in winter advance rates with the seasonal characteristics. We found this variability of the AIS frontal line to be in good agreement with the ice flow velocity.

The Antarctic Coastal Current in the Bellingshausen Sea

The ice shelves of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet experience basal melting induced by underlying warm, salty Circumpolar Deep Water. Basal meltwater, along with runoff from ice sheets, supplies fresh buoyant water to a circulation feature near the coast, the Antarctic Coastal Current (AACC). The formation, structure, and coherence of the AACC has been well documented along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). Observations from instrumented seals collected in the Bellingshausen Sea offer extensive hydrographic coverage throughout the year, providing evidence of the continuation of the westward flowing AACC from the WAP towards the Amundsen Sea. The observations reported here demonstrate that the coastal boundary current enters the eastern Bellingshausen Sea from the WAP and flows westward along the face of multiple ice shelves, including the westernmost Abbot Ice Shelf. The presence of the AACC in the western Bellingshausen Sea has implications for the export of water properties into the eastern Amundsen Sea, which we suggest may occur through multiple pathways, either along the coast or along the continental shelf break. The temperature, salinity, and density structure of the current indicates an increase in baroclinic transport as the AACC flows from the east to the west, and as it entrains meltwater from the ice shelves in the Bellingshausen Sea. The AACC acts as a mechanism to transport meltwater out of the Bellingshausen Sea and into the Amundsen and Ross seas, with the potential to impact, respectively, basal melt rates and bottom water formation in these regions.

Tracking changes in the area, thickness, and volume of the Thwaites tabular iceberg “B30” using satellite altimetry and imagery

Icebergs account for half of all ice loss from Antarctica and, once released, present a hazard to maritime operations. Their melting leads to a redistribution of cold fresh water around the Southern Ocean which, in turn, influences water circulation, promotes sea ice formation, and fosters primary production. In this study, we combine CryoSat-2 satellite altimetry with MODIS and Sentinel-1 satellite imagery and meteorological data to track changes in the area, freeboard, thickness, and volume of the B30 tabular iceberg between 2012 and 2018. We track the iceberg elevation when it was attached to Thwaites Glacier and on a further 106 occasions after it calved using Level 1b CryoSat data, which ensures that measurements recorded in different acquisition modes and within different geographical zones are consistently processed. From these data, we map the iceberg's freeboard and estimate its thickness taking snowfall and changes in snow and ice density into account. We compute changes in freeboard and thickness relative to the initial average for each overpass and compare these to estimates from precisely located tracks using the satellite imagery. This comparison shows good agreement (correlation coefficient 0.87) and suggests that colocation reduces the freeboard uncertainty by 1.6 m. We also demonstrate that the snow layer has a significant impact on iceberg thickness change. Changes in the iceberg area are measured by tracing its perimeter, and we show that alternative estimates based on arc lengths recorded in satellite altimetry profiles and on measurements of the semi-major and semi-minor axes also capture the trend, though with a 48 % overestimate and a 15 % underestimate, respectively. Since it calved, the area of B30 has decreased from 1500±60 to 426±27 km2, its mean freeboard has fallen from 49.0±4.6 to 38.8±2.2 m, and its mean thickness has reduced from 315±36 to 198±14 m. The combined loss amounts to an 80 %±16 % reduction in volume, two thirds (69 %±14 %) of which is due to fragmentation and the remainder (31 %±11 %) of which is due to basal melting.