Machine learning models for predicting international tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic: a multisource Internet data approach

PurposeThis research presents machine learning models for predicting international tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic using multisource Internet data.Design/methodology/approachTo develop the prediction models, this research utilizes multisource Internet data from TripAdvisor travel forum and Google Trends. Temporal factors, posts and comments, search queries index and previous tourist arrivals records are set as predictors. Four sets of predictors and three distinct data compositions were utilized for training the machine learning models, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector regression (SVR) and random forest (RF). To evaluate the models, this research uses three accuracy metrics, namely root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).FindingsPrediction models trained using multisource Internet data predictors have better accuracy than those trained using single-source Internet data or other predictors. In addition, using more training sets that cover the phenomenon of interest, such as COVID-19, will enhance the prediction model's learning process and accuracy. The experiments show that the RF models have better prediction accuracy than the ANN and SVR models.Originality/valueFirst, this study pioneers the practice of a multisource Internet data approach in predicting tourist arrivals amid the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Second, the use of multisource Internet data to improve prediction performance is validated with real empirical data. Finally, this is one of the few papers to provide perspectives on the current dynamics of Indonesia's tourism demand.

Tourism Entrepreneurial Prospects in Bardiya, Nepal: Challenges and Way-forwards

In the present context of Nepal, tourism is a new cultural expression and performance of national formation. Nepal is ready to deliberately utilize in a modern world as a means of creating a sense of identity and solidarity. The country has developed policies that directly influence and continue to shape tourism activities in Nepal. Despite plethora of literature available in Nepalese tourism sector still less has been paid attention on tourism entrepreneurial prospects and not much talked about regional and sectorial tourism prospects including Bardiya District, which is potential destination for national and international tourist for many causes. Thus, this study aims to identify tourism entrepreneurial prospects along with its challenges and potential recommendation for tourism entrepreneurial development in Bardiya District. This study is based on explanatory research design where local residents residing in Thakurbaba Municipality have been interviewed using structured questionnaire. Primary data were collected with 290 respondents selected using convenience sampling methods. Result indicates that 40% of the local people want to participate on tourism activities and want to get involved in accommodation services (31%), travel guide (26%), service foods (22%), transportation sector (18%), and other services (3%). It also finds that the major challenges in development of tourism entrepreneurship in Bardiya is lack of efficient management of transportation within the municipality and security of tourists. Hence, more investment on infrastructure will help to promote tourism entrepreneurial prospects in Bardiya.

SECOND HOME TOURISM: AN INTERCESSION FOR REJUVENETION OF TOURISM DESTINATION IN COVID-19 CRISIS

This study aims to demonstrate how hedonistic Second Home Tourism (SHT) trips and eudaimonic community participation will retrieve tourist flow and revive tourist destination from the COVID-19 crisis. Q methodology was followed to measure the subjectivity of scholars, researchers and practitioners of tourism industry for the appreciation of SHT in the crisis. Q Method Software was used to conduct factor analysis. The result of the study concludes that short haul mobility/trip within periphery and/or travel bubble accelerates the % change of international tourist arrivals. The study also implores that how future SHT trips will ensure community resilience through social intuition (cultural integrity and knowledge exchange) and financial retention through economic empathy (demand-supply balance and revenue generation).

IMPACT OF ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL AND POLITICAL RISKS ON TOURISM PERFORMANCE: A CASE OF SOUTH AFRICA

The contribution of tourism to a country’s economy is determined by country risk measures such as economic, financial and political risk. This study aimed to investigate short and long-run effects of country risk factors on international tourist arrivals and tourism revenue for the South African tourism industry. The sample period consists of monthly time series data of tourist arrivals, tourism revenue, and country risk factors from January 2004 to December 2018. Data was analysed using the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL (NARDL) models. The findings showed that the long-run effects of country risk factors on tourist arrivals and revenue are asymmetric. Economic, financial, and political measures of country risk negatively affect tourist arrivals, however, tourism revenue responds differently to changes in these risk factors. Political risk has the highest effect on the tourism industry compared to economic and financial risk factors. Overall, this study established that both international tourist arrivals and tourism revenue are threatened by financial shocks indicating that an unconducive financial environment has long-term negative implications on the South African tourism industry.

THRESHOLD EFFECT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE ON TOURISM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT: EVIDENCE FROM TOP 10 AFRICAN DESTINATIONS

Tourism has become an information-intensive business that heavily relies on ICT to provide information and conduct transactions for consumers of touristic products and services. Thus, ICT infrastructure would play a major role in the development of the tourism sector. This paper aims to investigate the threshold effect of ICT infrastructure on tourism sector development in top10 African tourism destinations including ; Botswana, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda. To do so, a double panel threshold regression model utilized over the period 2004 to 2017. The empirical results revealed a new perspective that there is a double-threshold effect of ICT infrastructure on the development of tourism sector, indicating a non-linear effect of ICT infrastructure on the development of tourism sector in top 10 African tourism destinations. More specifically, the empirical results reveal that ICT infrastructure weakly and positively derives the number of intentional tourism arrivals and international tourist receipts when the level of ICT infrastructure is less or equal to the first threshold, while it strongly and positively derives the number of intentional tourism arrivals and international tourist when the level of ICT infrastructure is less or equal to the first and second thresholds. Thus, this paper provides important implications for policy makers, in that maximizing the benefits from information technology in developing tourism sector can be achieved when its level between certain critical threshold values.

From fishing villages to international tourist destinations: where are the citizens?

The present article examines the relationship between tourism, production of space and the role of residents at two hotspot tourist destinations in Brazil: Cabo Frio, located in State of Rio de Janeiro and Porto Seguro, in State of Bahia. The development of the tourist industry in the localities under study occurred at different points in time. In the first, the urbanization process was associated with the acquisition of second homes in the 1950s, while the second, located in the Northeast region of the country, this process emerged in conjunction with the mass tourism industry only in the late 1980s. We hope this research will enhance understanding of the process of urbanization and the configuration of tourism space and the conflicts arising from this in developing countries, notably Latin America. Our methodology employed theories based on those developed by Chesnais (1996, 2005, 2016), Harvey (2005, 2008, 2011, 2014), Santos (2006) and others to explain the production of space in a way that goes beyond the use of historical data and socioeconomic analysis. The initial conclusion was that, despite the differences in the process (mass tourism vs. second homes, development in space and over time and geographical position), the two geographical locations selected presented the same findings: unequal production of space and the exclusion of local populations. The tourism activity investigated in these two case studies thus appears to replicate the current stage of development in Brazil, characterized by inequality and exclusion and reflected in the landscapes of the country’s tourist destinations.

Implementation of the regional project ICRBA «Explication of the artistic culture potential of the Altai territory and determination of mechanisms of its use in regional and international tourist projects»

В статье кратко рассматриваются итоги работы сотрудников ИКИБА над региональным проектом «Экспликация потенциала художественной культуры Алтайского края и определения механизмов его использования в региональных и международных туристических проектах». Основной целью научного исследования является системная оценка и экспликация художественной культуры Алтая как части национального культурного наследия с точки зрения его актуализации. На основе системного обобщения материалов исследования проведены: описание и анализ наиболее привлекательных с точки зрения туристической деятельности коллекций и отдельных произведений; предложена методика интерпретации объектов художественного творчества в целях раскрытия их в экскурсионной деятельности; предложены методологические подходы к организации туристических маршрутов по специальным темам, связанным с художественным творчеством.

TRAVEL BUBBLE: RISK ANXIETY, RISK ATTITUDE AND INTENTION TO TRAVEL DURING COVID-19 OUTBREAK

The COVID-19 pandemic has made the tourism industry in Malaysia decline drastically. The outbreak has continued for almost two years and has decreased local and international tourist arrivals. The decline is because of the Movement Control Order (MCO) execution, and safety precautions were issued when travelling. Nevertheless, the impressive rate of deterioration in pandemic transmission gives a new shade to domestic tourism. The Tourism Ministry has put forward an initiative that can revitalise the economic sector in the country by introducing the travel bubble destinations among Malaysians. With that, the main purpose of this study is to explore the travel bubble risk anxiety, risk attitude, and intention to travel among Malaysian when COVID-19 is still plaguing the nation. A self-administered survey was conducted online using a snowballing technique. The data collected was keyed in and analysed according to the objectives of this study. The main findings of this study highlighted that those respondents would feel anxious and worried about their safety when participating in the travel bubble. Statistical significance also revealed the respondents’ intentions to travel during the COVID-19 outbreak. Further discussions of the findings were also highlighted to deliberate the implications of the study.

THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH UNDER DENGUE FEVER RISK IN MALAYSIA

Dengue fever has long been a public health problem in tropical and subtropical countries. The dengue virus is critical problem for international tourists with a rising number of them returning from dengue‐ endemic countries infected with dengue fever. The aim of the study is to examine the relationship between international tourist arrivals on economic growth moderated by the rise in dengue fever cases in Malaysia from 2014 until 2020. This study was carried out using secondary monthly data for dengue fever cases, gross domestic productivity (GDP) data and data on international tourist arrivals in the country. A correlation test was used to determine the correlation between the independent, dependent and moderating variables. The results reveal a significant correlation among dengue fever cases, tourist arrivals and economic growth. In 2017 and 2018, higher international tourist arrivals lead to a lower Malaysian economic growth following a dengue disease outbreak. Furthermore, dengue fever risks show a positive relationship with international tourist arrivals and vice-versa. In line with the government’s strategy to promote the Malaysian tourism industry, some prevention and recovery policies that take into consideration the number of dengue cases and economic factors should be planned.

AESTHETICS AND ETHICS OF KARAWITAN ART IN LONTAR AJI GHURNNITA

<p>Art is a form of expression of the soul that cannot be separated from human beings. Art makes human’s life more beautiful and colorful. Various kinds of art forms were created by humans as a form of existence and self-expression, be it in the form of dance, painting, and various other types of art. Bali as one of the world's international tourist destinations cannot be separated from the various kinds of arts in it. One of them is karawitan or art of sound. Karawitan art itself is divided into two types, namely instrumental musical art in the form of gamelan, and vocal karawitan. The art of karawitan, especially gamelan in Bali, is not only a complement to religious ceremonies or the pouring of creative ideas, but also has a very significant influence on the Balinese people and the listeners of the gamelan. The shape of the gamelan is also able to influence the soul and human behavior that dissolves in the atmosphere brought by the gamelan players. The implementation of gamelan art, either directly or indirectly, has ethical and aesthetic values. Through gamelan art, humans will learn ethical and aesthetic values. If viewed from the aesthetic value, gamelan art contains the values of truth (Satyam), purity (Shivam), and beauty (Sundaram) which are concepts of Hindu aesthetics itself. In terms of ethical values, gamelan art teaches one to learn to respect one another and learn the meaning of equality where everyone has the same position according to their respective duties and functions. Through gamelan, humans learn to harmonize what is said and what is done.</p>