Urban Traffic Dynamics Prediction—A Continuous Spatial-temporal Meta-learning Approach

Urban traffic status (e.g., traffic speed and volume) is highly dynamic in nature, namely, varying across space and evolving over time. Thus, predicting such traffic dynamics is of great importance to urban development and transportation management. However, it is very challenging to solve this problem due to spatial-temporal dependencies and traffic uncertainties. In this article, we solve the traffic dynamics prediction problem from Bayesian meta-learning perspective and propose a novel continuous spatial-temporal meta-learner (cST-ML), which is trained on a distribution of traffic prediction tasks segmented by historical traffic data with the goal of learning a strategy that can be quickly adapted to related but unseen traffic prediction tasks. cST-ML tackles the traffic dynamics prediction challenges by advancing the Bayesian black-box meta-learning framework through the following new points: (1) cST-ML captures the dynamics of traffic prediction tasks using variational inference, and to better capture the temporal uncertainties within tasks, cST-ML performs as a rolling window within each task; (2) cST-ML has novel designs in architecture, where CNN and LSTM are embedded to capture the spatial-temporal dependencies between traffic status and traffic-related features; (3) novel training and testing algorithms for cST-ML are designed. We also conduct experiments on two real-world traffic datasets (taxi inflow and traffic speed) to evaluate our proposed cST-ML. The experimental results verify that cST-ML can significantly improve the urban traffic prediction performance and outperform all baseline models especially when obvious traffic dynamics and temporal uncertainties are presented.

Sequential-Knowledge-Aware Next POI Recommendation: A Meta-Learning Approach

Accurately recommending the next point of interest (POI) has become a fundamental problem with the rapid growth of location-based social networks. However, sparse, imbalanced check-in data and diverse user check-in patterns pose severe challenges for POI recommendation tasks. Knowledge-aware models are known to be primary in leveraging these problems. However, as most knowledge graphs are constructed statically, sequential information is yet integrated. In this work, we propose a meta-learned sequential-knowledge-aware recommender (Meta-SKR), which utilizes sequential, spatio-temporal, and social knowledge to recommend the next POI for a location-based social network user. The framework mainly contains four modules. First, in the graph construction module, a novel type of knowledge graph—the sequential knowledge graph, which is sensitive to the check-in order of POIs—is built to model users’ check-in patterns. To deal with the problem of data sparsity, a meta-learning module based on latent embedding optimization is then introduced to generate user-conditioned parameters of the subsequent sequential-knowledge-aware embedding module, where representation vectors of entities (nodes) and relations (edges) are learned. In this embedding module, gated recurrent units are adapted to distill intra- and inter-sequential knowledge graph information. We also design a novel knowledge-aware attention mechanism to capture information surrounding a given node. Finally, POI recommendation is provided by inferring potential links of knowledge graphs in the prediction module. Evaluations on three real-world check-in datasets show that Meta-SKR can achieve high recommendation accuracy even with sparse data.

Effectiveness, Explainability and Reliability of Machine Meta-Learning Methods for Predicting Mortality in Patients with COVID-19: Results of the Brazilian COVID-19 Registry

The majority prognostic scores proposed for early assessment of coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) patients are bounded by methodological flaws. Our group recently developed a new risk score - ABC2SPH - using traditional statistical methods (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression - LASSO). In this article, we provide a thorough comparative study between modern machine learning (ML) methods and state-of-the-art statistical methods, represented by ABC2SPH, in the task of predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients using data upon hospital admission. We overcome methodological and technological issues found in previous similar studies, while exploring a large sample (5,032 patients). Additionally, we take advantage of a large and diverse set of methods and investigate the effectiveness of applying meta-learning, more specifically Stacking, in order to combine the methods' strengths and overcome their limitations. In our experiments, our Stacking solutions improved over previous state-of-the-art by more than 26% in predicting death, achieving 87.1% of AUROC and MacroF1 of 73.9%. We also investigated issues related to the interpretability and reliability of the predictions produced by the most effective ML methods. Finally, we discuss the adequacy of AUROC as an evaluation metric for highly imbalanced and skewed datasets commonly found in health-related problems.

Brain-inspired global-local learning incorporated with neuromorphic computing

There are two principle approaches for learning in artificial intelligence: error-driven global learning and neuroscience-oriented local learning. Integrating them into one network may provide complementary learning capabilities for versatile learning scenarios. At the same time, neuromorphic computing holds great promise, but still needs plenty of useful algorithms and algorithm-hardware co-designs to fully exploit its advantages. Here, we present a neuromorphic global-local synergic learning model by introducing a brain-inspired meta-learning paradigm and a differentiable spiking model incorporating neuronal dynamics and synaptic plasticity. It can meta-learn local plasticity and receive top-down supervision information for multiscale learning. We demonstrate the advantages of this model in multiple different tasks, including few-shot learning, continual learning, and fault-tolerance learning in neuromorphic vision sensors. It achieves significantly higher performance than single-learning methods. We further implement the model in the Tianjic neuromorphic platform by exploiting algorithm-hardware co-designs and prove that the model can fully utilize neuromorphic many-core architecture to develop hybrid computation paradigm.