SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Outbreak in a Dormitory in Saint-Petersburg, Russia

The B.1.1.529 Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is rapidly spreading, displacing the globally prevalent Delta variant. Before December 16, 2021, community transmission had already been observed in tens of countries globally. However, in Russia, all reported cases had been sporadic and associated with travel. Here, we report an Omicron outbreak at a students’ dormitory in Saint Petersburg, Russia. Out of the 462 sampled residents of the dormitory, 206 (44.6%) tested PCR positive, and 159 (77.1%) of these infections carried the S:ins214EPE insertion, indicating that they were of the Omicron strain. 104 (65%) of Omicron-positive patients have been vaccinated and/or reported previous covid-19. Whole genome sequencing confirmed that the outbreak is caused by the Omicron variant. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the outbreak has a single origin, and belongs to the S:346K sublineage of Omicron which may be characterized by an increased rate of spread, compared to other Omicron sublineages. The rapid spread of Omicron in a population with preexisting immunity to previous variants underlines its propensity for immune evasion.

Spread of variants of epidemic disease based on the microscopic numerical simulations on networks

Viruses constantly undergo mutations with genomic changes. The propagation of variants of viruses is an interesting problem. We perform numerical simulations of the microscopic epidemic model based on network theory for the spread of variants. Assume that a small number of individuals infected with the variant are added to widespread infection with the original virus. When a highly infectious variant that is more transmissible than the original lineage is added, the variant spreads quickly to the wide space. On the other hand, if the infectivity is about the same as that of the original virus, the infection will not spread. The rate of spread is not linear as a function of the infection strength but increases non-linearly. This cannot be explained by the compartmental model of epidemiology but can be understood in terms of the dynamic absorbing state known from the contact process.

Spread of new mutations through space

The terms population size and population density are often used interchangeably, when in fact they are quite different. When viewed in a spatial landscape, density is defined as the number of individuals within a square unit of distance, while population size is simply the total count of a population. In discrete population genetics models, the effective population size is known to influence the interaction between selection and random drift with selection playing a larger role in large populations while random drift has more influence in smaller populations. Using a spatially explicit simulation software we investigate how population density affects the flow of new mutations through a geographical space. Using population density, selectional advantage, and dispersal distributions, a model is developed to predict the speed at which the new allele will travel, obtaining more accurate results than current diffusion approximations provide. We note that the rate at which a neutral mutation spreads begins to decay over time while the rate of spread of an advantageous allele remains constant. We also show that new advantageous mutations spread faster in dense populations.

Dynamical analysis of coronavirus disease with crowding effect, and vaccination: a study of third strain

Countries affected by the coronavirus epidemic have reported many infected cases and deaths based on world health statistics. The crowding factor, which we named "crowding effects," plays a significant role in spreading the diseases. However, the introduction of vaccines marks a turning point in the rate of spread of coronavirus infections. Modeling both effects is vastly essential as it directly impacts the overall population of the studied region. To determine the peak of the infection curve by considering the third strain, we develop a mathematical model (susceptible–infected–vaccinated–recovered) with reported cases from August 01, 2021, till August 29, 2021. The nonlinear incidence rate with the inclusion of both effects is the best approach to analyze the dynamics. The model's positivity, boundedness, existence, uniqueness, and stability (local and global) are addressed with the help of a reproduction number. In addition, the strength number and second derivative Lyapunov analysis are examined, and the model was found to be asymptotically stable. The suggested parameters efficiently control the active cases of the third strain in Pakistan. It was shown that a systematic vaccination program regulates the infection rate. However, the crowding effect reduces the impact of vaccination. The present results show that the model can be applied to other countries' data to predict the infection rate.

DAMPAK PEMBELAJARAN JARAK JAUH (PJJ) DI PERGURUAN TINGGI PADA MASA WABAH PANDEMI COVID-19 TERHADAP PEMAHAMAN MATERI MAHASISWA (Studi Eksploratif Mahasiswa Sarjana PAI IAIN Salatiga)

This study aims to determine how the strategies carried out during distance learning (PJJ) during the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak of PAI IAIN Salatiga undergraduate students. Then the impact of the advantages or positives from the implementation of distance learning (PJJ), as well as the inhibiting factors. This research uses a qualitative approach. Primary data were collected using google form and secondary data from articles or journals, books and literature related to this research. From this research, it is known that the strategy for implementing distance learning (PJJ) in Salatiga is to take advantage of technological developments such as: zoom meetings, whatsapp groups, google forms, google classroom, google meet, and youtube. As for the positive or supporting impacts, namely: a) knowing the various applications and developments in science and technology, b) anticipating the rate of spread of the Covid-19 virus outbreak, c) PJJ is more lenient in time without requiring to come to the campus, it is enough to learn from their respective homes, d) material well and can spend more time with family. While the inhibiting effects are: a) lack of understanding in understanding the material, b) lack of maximal in lectures due to signal constraints, c) lack of interaction from student to lecturer or student to other students, d) most of them give assignments without the delivery of material first.

Orthorectification of Helicopter-Borne High Resolution Experimental Burn Observation from Infra Red Handheld Imagers

To pursue the development and validation of coupled fire-atmosphere models, the wildland fire modeling community needs validation data sets with scenarios where fire-induced winds influence fire front behavior, and with high temporal and spatial resolution. Helicopter-borne infrared thermal cameras have the potential to monitor landscape-scale wildland fires at a high resolution during experimental burns. To extract valuable information from those observations, three-step image processing is required: (a) Orthorectification to warp raw images on a fixed coordinate system grid, (b) segmentation to delineate the fire front location out of the orthorectified images, and (c) computation of fire behavior metrics such as the rate of spread from the time-evolving fire front location. This work is dedicated to the first orthorectification step, and presents a series of algorithms that are designed to process handheld helicopter-borne thermal images collected during savannah experimental burns. The novelty in the approach lies on its recursive design, which does not require the presence of fixed ground control points, hence relaxing the constraint on field of view coverage and helping the acquisition of high-frequency observations. For four burns ranging from four to eight hectares, long-wave and mid infra red images were collected at 1 and 3 Hz, respectively, and orthorectified at a high spatial resolution (<1 m) with an absolute accuracy estimated to be lower than 4 m. Subsequent computation of fire radiative power is discussed with comparison to concurrent space-borne measurements.

Consideration on the Covid-19 Pandemic and the New Challenges of Organizational Management

There are growing concerns about the continued spread of the COVID -19 pandemic around the world and the challenge of keeping the rate of spread low in other parts of the world. Governments, employers, workers and unions face enormous challenges in combating the COVID -19 pandemic and ensuring worker safety and health in the workplace.

Early Information on Active Cases in Zero Rejection Efforts for COVID-19 Patients in West Java Province 2021 Using the Feedforwards Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network

West Java noted, as of August 14, 2021, 653,741 people were confirmed positive for COVID-19. On the same date, the number of active COVID-19 cases in West Java was 65,000. There is a significant increase in active cases of COVID-19 in 2021 in West Java. In the period 5 June – 17 July 2021, there was an increase in the number of active cases by 95,532. In that period, active cases increased by 484%, and the Bed Occupancy Ratio (BOR) in West Java had jumped in June 2021 with the highest number of 91.6%, this figure far exceeded the WHO recommendation of 60% before finally continuing to decline and finally in August was at 30.69%. This has an impact on the incidence of patient rejection at the COVID-19 referral hospital. Active cases talk about COVID-19 patients who need medical treatment and new cases talk about the rate of spread of COVID-19 in West Java, so these two things are very strategic to study. In this study, active cases and new case were predicted using Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). The data used in this study were sourced from the COVID-19 Task Force. The data is the number of positive cases, recovered and died of COVID-19 sufferers in 34 provinces in Indonesia in the period 2 March 2020 - 14 August 2021. The results of the study found, from the results of the evaluation using data testing the number of active cases in the last 19 weeks, namely April 10 – August 14, 2021, MLP is accurate in predicting the number of active cases for the first coming week 17 times, and the next two weeks for the second week 12 times with an absolute percentage error (APE) < 20%. As for weekly new cases, MLP has been accurate 10 times for the next one week and 9 times for the next two weeks. It is hoped that the results of this study can be useful for the government as a reference in conditioning the hospital bed capacity to deal with active cases of COVID-19 in West Java in the next two weeks so that no COVID-19 patients are rejected by the hospital because the hospital is full.

The Effect of Quarantine During the COVID-19 Pandemic on The Oral Health Habits of the Syrian Community

Introduction: Corona Virus appeared at the end of 2019. It belongs to a large family of viruses that can cause respiratory infections. Due to its ability to spread rapidly and easily, it has become a pandemic throughout almost the entire world. This has necessitated the establishment of quarantine procedures in order to reduce the rate of spread of the virus and thus the number of deaths. However, these procedures may cause a range of effects on people. One of the most important aspects that can be affected is oral health care. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of quarantine procedures on the oral health habits of the Syrian community.Materials and methods:A survey was created using Google Forms and published on Facebook from 16 April 2020 until 11 May 2020. The number of people corresponding to the study criteria in Syria reached 1033. The survey looked at the effect of quarantine procedures on changing oral health habits, including the number of times of brushing and the time of brushing.Results: Quarantine led to a change in oral health habits in 57.4% of the sample. Females were significantly more affected by changing habits during quarantine (P=0.020). The number of brushing times was not clearly affected and it was twice daily (49.4% before quarantine, 42.1% during quarantine). There was no statistically significant difference between the two periods in terms of the number of times of brushing.Conclusion: This study is the first study that showed the effect of home quarantine on the oral habits of members of the Syrian community. Home quarantine did not significantly affect the oral health habits of Syrians.