Temperature, carbon dioxide and methane

1) Globally-representative monthly rates of change of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane are compared with global rates of change of sea ice and with Arctic and Antarctic air temperatures. 2) Carbon dioxide is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the carbon dioxide rate at Mauna Loa lagging sea ice extent rate by 7 months. 3) Methane is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the global (and Mauna Loa) methane rate lagging sea ice extent rate by 5 months. 4) Sea ice melt rate peaks in very tight synchrony with temperature in each Hemisphere. 5) The very high synchrony of the two gases is most parsimoniously explained by a common causality acting in both Hemispheres. 6) Time lags between variables indicate primary drivers of the gas dynamics are due to solar action on the polar regions, not mid-latitudes as is conventionally believed. 7) Results are consistent with a proposed role of a high-latitude temperature-dependent abiotic variable such as sea ice in the annual cycles of carbon dioxide and methane. 8) If sea ice does not drive the net flux of these gases, it is a highly precise proxy for whatever does. 9) Potential mechanisms should be investigated urgently.

Climate changes modulated the history of Arctic iodine during the Last Glacial Cycle

Iodine has a significant impact on promoting the formation of new ultrafine aerosol particles and accelerating tropospheric ozone loss, thereby affecting radiative forcing and climate. Therefore, understanding the long-term natural evolution of iodine, and its coupling with climate variability, is key to adequately assess its effect on climate on centennial to millennial timescales. Here, using two Greenland ice cores (NEEM and RECAP), we report the Arctic iodine variability during the last 127,000 years. We find the highest and lowest iodine levels recorded during interglacial and glacial periods, respectively, modulated by ocean bioproductivity and sea ice dynamics. Our sub-decadal resolution measurements reveal that high frequency iodine emission variability occurred in pace with Dansgaard/Oeschger events, highlighting the rapid Arctic ocean-ice-atmosphere iodine exchange response to abrupt climate changes. Finally, we discuss if iodine levels during past warmer-than-present climate phases can serve as analogues of future scenarios under an expected ice-free Arctic Ocean. We argue that the combination of natural biogenic ocean iodine release (boosted by ongoing Arctic warming and sea ice retreat) and anthropogenic ozone-induced iodine emissions may lead to a near future scenario with the highest iodine levels of the last 127,000 years.

MPAS-Seaice (v1.0.0): Sea-ice dynamics on unstructured Voronoi meshes

We present MPAS-Seaice, a sea-ice model which uses the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework and Spherical Centroidal Voronoi Tessellation (SCVT) unstructured meshes. As well as SCVT meshes, MPAS-Seaice can run on the traditional quadrilateral grids used by sea-ice models such as CICE. The MPAS-Seaice velocity solver uses the Elastic-Viscous-Plastic (EVP) rheology, and the variational discretization of the internal stress divergence operator used by CICE, but adapted for the polygonal cells of MPAS meshes, or alternatively an integral (“weak”) formulation of the stress divergence operator. An incremental remapping advection scheme is used for mass and tracer transport. We validate these formulations with idealized test cases, both planar and on the sphere. The variational scheme displays lower errors than the weak formulation for the strain rate operator but higher errors for the stress divergence operator. The variational stress divergence operator displays increased errors around the pentagonal cells of a quasi-uniform mesh, which is ameliorated with an alternate formulation for the operator. MPAS-Seaice shares the sophisticated column physics and biogeochemistry of CICE, and when used with quadrilateral meshes can reproduce the results of CICE. We have used global simulations with realistic forcing to validate MPAS-Seaice against similar simulations with CICE and against observations. We find very similar results compared to CICE with differences explained by minor differences in implementation such as with interpolation between the primary and dual meshes at coastlines. We have assessed the computational performance of the model, which, because it is unstructured, runs 70 % as fast as CICE for a comparison quadrilateral simulation. The SCVT meshes used by MPAS-Seaice allow culling of equatorial model cells and flexibility in domain decomposition, improving model performance. MPAS-Seaice is the current sea-ice component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM).

Sea Ice Dynamics Drive Benthic Microbial Communities in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

Climate change is driving dramatic variability in sea ice dynamics, a key driver in polar marine ecosystems. Projected changes in Antarctica suggest that regional warming will force dramatic shifts in sea ice thickness and persistence, altering sea ice-associated primary production and deposition to the seafloor. To improve our understanding of the impacts of sea ice change on benthic ecosystems, we directly compared the benthic microbial communities underlying first-year sea ice (FYI) and multi-year sea ice (MYI). Using two tractable coastal habitats in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica, where FYI (Cape Evans) and MYI (New Harbour) prevail, we show that the structure and composition of the benthic microbial communities reflect the legacy of sea ice dynamics. At Cape Evans, an enrichment of known heterotrophic algal polysaccharide degrading taxa (e.g., Flavobacteriaceae, unclassified Gammaproteobacteria, and Rubritaleaceae) and sulfate-reducing bacteria (e.g., Desulfocapsaceae) correlated with comparatively higher chlorophyll a (14.2±0.8μgg−1) and total organic carbon content (0.33%±0.04), reflecting increased productivity and seafloor deposition beneath FYI. Conversely, at New Harbour, an enrichment of known archaeal (e.g., Nitrosopumilaceae) and bacterial (e.g., Woeseiaceae and Nitrospiraceae) chemoautotrophs was common in sediments with considerably lower chlorophyll a (1.0±0.24μgg−1) and total organic carbon content (0.17%±0.01), reflecting restricted productivity beneath MYI. We also report evidence of a submarine discharge of sub-permafrost brine from Taylor Valley into New Harbour. By comparing our two study sites, we show that under current climate-warming scenarios, changes to sea ice productivity and seafloor deposition are likely to initiate major shifts in benthic microbial communities, with heterotrophic organic matter degradation processes becoming increasingly important. This study provides the first assessment of how legacy sea ice conditions influence benthic microbial communities in Antarctica, contributing insight into sea ice–benthic coupling and ecosystem functioning in a polar environment.

The Drake Passage opening from an experimental fluid dynamics point of view

Pronounced global cooling around the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT) was a pivotal event in Earth’s climate history, controversially associated with the opening of the Drake Passage. Using a physical laboratory model we revisit the fluid dynamics of this marked reorganization of ocean circulation. Here we show, seemingly contradicting paleoclimate records, that in our experiments opening the pathway yields higher values of mean water surface temperature than the “closed” configuration. This mismatch points to the importance of the role ice albedo feedback plays in the investigated EOT-like transition, a component that is not captured in the laboratory model. Our conclusion is supported by numerical simulations performed in a global climate model (GCM) of intermediate complexity, where both “closed” and “open” configurations were explored, with and without active sea ice dynamics. The GCM results indicate that sea surface temperatures would change in the opposite direction following an opening event in the two sea ice dynamics settings, and the results are therefore consistent both with the laboratory experiment (slight warming after opening) and the paleoclimatic data (pronounced cooling after opening). It follows that in the hypothetical case of an initially ice-free Antarctica the continent could have become even warmer after the opening, a scenario not indicated by paleotemperature reconstructions.