Reference Class Forecasting and Machine Learning for Improved Offshore Oil and Gas Megaproject Planning: Methods and Application

This article develops and describes rigorous oil and gas project forecasting methods. First, it builds a theoretical foundation by mapping megaproject performance literature to these projects. Second, it draws on heuristics and biases literature, using a questionnaire to demonstrate forecasting-related biases and principal-agent issues among industry project professionals. Third, it uses methodically collected project performance data to demonstrate that overrun distributions are non-normal and fat-tailed. Fourth, reference-class forecasting is demonstrated for cost and schedule uplifts. Finally, a predictive approach using machine learning (ML) considers project-specific factors to forecast the most likely cost and schedule overruns in a project.

Incorporating Sustainability and Maintenance for Performance Assessment of Offshore Oil and Gas Platforms: A Perspective

The existence of external two-fold pressure regarding competitiveness and sustainable development in a capital-intensive industry supports the need for sustainable performance. However, endeavors to create a sustainable framework to measure the performance of the oil and gas (O&G) industry are mostly devoted to the production and supply chain of petrochemical products and rarely focus on a maintenance perspective. Motivated by such scarcity, the goal of this research was to discuss and articulate the performance assessment framework by integrating concepts of maintenance and sustainability in the O&G industry. This study proposed the use of a range of performance measures for assessing sustainability on offshore production and drilling platforms. The conceptual framework consists of four aspects of sustainability categorized into technical, environmental, social, and economic dimensions. Each measure was assigned according to its relevance at the strategic, tactical, and functional levels of maintenance decision making. The conceptual framework resulted in hierarchical clusters of twelve strategic indicators. These indicators consist of conventional measures as well as new ones relating to the safety and reliability on offshore platforms. The potential contribution of the present study is found in its intention to empower a better understanding of sustainable maintenance and encourage those making decisions about practical implementation within the O&G industry. This paper culminates with directions for future studies.

The main directions of sustainable socio-economic development of the Caspian littoral areas of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the existing environmental problems

In Azerbaijan, since the earliest times, the Caspian Sea has contributed to the Received in revised form: 07.10.2021 settlement of population and structure of the economy. The favourable natural geographical conditions of the coasts, exploitation of offshore oil and gas fields and rich tourist-recreational potential favoured the economy of Azerbaijan significantly. However, sea-level fluctuations and environmental damage observed due to exploitation of natural resources served as curbing factor in the development. In modern times, planning of residential areas in the coastal areas, improvement of industrial, agricultural and tourism infrastructure, and successful management of the ecological situation are achievable through effective use of the natural resources and human potential of the Caspian Sea. The coastal region of the Caspian Sea, composed of three zones, is favourable for the development of Azerbaijan’s economy. Theattractiveness of coastal areas is related mainly to preferences of natural conditions and resources and the advantages of their transport- geographical location. As a result, the development level of the economy of the Pre-Caspian region is higher compared to other regions of the country. The region accounts for 88.7 % of the total industrial output in the country. The main part of it, i. e. 95.7 % is shared by the city of Baku. The cause of significant difference in development level between the regions and the capital Baku is associated with the use of oil and gas resources of the Caspian. Thus, offshore oil and gas reserves in the Caspian have played a notable role in the development of coastal areas, and of the country’s whole economy. This has led to inequality in terms of regional development. This factor prompted the need to study the role of the use of resources of the Caspian Sea in the sustainable development of Azerbaijan’s economy. In order to achieve the goal, a comparative analysis of the leading economic branches in the Pre-Caspian regions was carried out from a historical point of view. The obtained information was systematized, and the socio-economic aspects of sustainable development were identified based on statistical-mathematical materials. Aerospace data were used as well.

A CFD Analysis of Decommissioned Oil Platforms Jackets on the Brazilian Coast

Every facility reaches the last phase in its life cycle, which is decommissioning. Since the last decade, this subject has been gaining importance in Brazil’s offshore oil and gas companies. For jacket type rigs, one of the methods widely applied after idling the production is the conversion of these structures into artificial reefs (ARs). There are several critical aspects for choosing the best strategy for cutting and sinking a platform jacket, ensuring the success of an AR from a biological point of view. One of them is the influence of marine currents and their fluid-structure interaction which, by maximizing local upwelling and back vortex effects, favours the growth of aggregated flora and fauna. This study consists in the application of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques for studying the marine flow around a disassembled and sunk jacket in the seabed for the purpose of converting it into an artificial reef. An FVM (Finite Volume Method) from a commercial software (most recent version of ANSYS FLUENT®) is applied with the upwind scheme. A k-ε turbulence model on steady state is chosen. Field data about Brazilian coastal currents are collected and analysed from the amount of information available on a Brazilian Navy's meteoceanographic program. Next, different combinations of cutting and sinking a jacket are studied, always keeping a minimum 55m free water column. The objective is to verify where the formation of local upwelling regions - that is, where the vertical velocity component reaches values equal or greater than 10% of the magnitude of the free flow velocity - is more significant, without decreasing back eddy formation. It is observed that the dismemberment of the jacket with the positioning of its parts in an increasing height sequence in the direction of the prevailing current is favourable to generate local upwelling while tipping the structure at 90° to the prevailing current results in the most voluminous back eddy region.

Exploring Understandings of Different Decommissioning Options for Offshore Oil and Gas Structures in the South Taranaki Bight of New Zealand

<p>The majority of the world’s offshore oil and gas structures will need to be decommissioned in upcoming decades as they near the end of their production phase. Once decommissioned, there are three main options available for the now-obsolete structures: complete removal, partial removal, and re-use. Since New Zealand has yet to decommission any offshore structures, there are no past examples or legislative precedent to guide the process. International case studies indicate that social acceptance is crucial to the successful implementation of these projects, so the aim of this thesis was to examine perceptions of different decommissioning options for offshore oil and gas structures in the South Taranaki Bight of New Zealand. Grounded in agenda-setting theory, Study 1 examined the prominence and portrayal of offshore decommissioning in the media. We found an exceedingly low coverage (N = 13) which indicates that the public are likely unaware of the issue. Within the limited sample, the themes 'disregarding decommissioning' and 'addressing decommissioning' were identified which, when combined, suggest that New Zealand is in the pre-planning stage of decommissioning and has yet to explore the options available. Using a postal survey (N = 154), Study 2 measured how the Taranaki community currently understood different decommissioning options, and explored whether and which familiarity variables, psychological constructs, and demographic variables could predict support for different options. The results confirmed a lack of knowledge and awareness (but high levels of interest) among the sample and revealed heterogeneity in which option was supported. Moreover, path analyses showed that awareness, knowledge, age, individualist worldviews, and egalitarian worldviews were significantly associated with support for different options. As will be discussed, these findings have significant implications for communication, engagement, and policy-making in both New Zealand and the international context.</p>

Exploring Understandings of Different Decommissioning Options for Offshore Oil and Gas Structures in the South Taranaki Bight of New Zealand

<p>The majority of the world’s offshore oil and gas structures will need to be decommissioned in upcoming decades as they near the end of their production phase. Once decommissioned, there are three main options available for the now-obsolete structures: complete removal, partial removal, and re-use. Since New Zealand has yet to decommission any offshore structures, there are no past examples or legislative precedent to guide the process. International case studies indicate that social acceptance is crucial to the successful implementation of these projects, so the aim of this thesis was to examine perceptions of different decommissioning options for offshore oil and gas structures in the South Taranaki Bight of New Zealand. Grounded in agenda-setting theory, Study 1 examined the prominence and portrayal of offshore decommissioning in the media. We found an exceedingly low coverage (N = 13) which indicates that the public are likely unaware of the issue. Within the limited sample, the themes 'disregarding decommissioning' and 'addressing decommissioning' were identified which, when combined, suggest that New Zealand is in the pre-planning stage of decommissioning and has yet to explore the options available. Using a postal survey (N = 154), Study 2 measured how the Taranaki community currently understood different decommissioning options, and explored whether and which familiarity variables, psychological constructs, and demographic variables could predict support for different options. The results confirmed a lack of knowledge and awareness (but high levels of interest) among the sample and revealed heterogeneity in which option was supported. Moreover, path analyses showed that awareness, knowledge, age, individualist worldviews, and egalitarian worldviews were significantly associated with support for different options. As will be discussed, these findings have significant implications for communication, engagement, and policy-making in both New Zealand and the international context.</p>