Hardwired to attack. Candidates’ personality traits and negative campaigning in three European countries

A growing body of studies shows that the reasons for competing candidates to “go negative” on their opponents during elections—that is, attacking their opponents instead of promoting their own programs or ideas stem from strategic considerations. Yet, existing research has, at this stage, failed to assess whether candidates’ personality traits also play a role. In this article, we bridge the gap between existing work in political psychology and political communication and study to what extent the personality traits of competing candidates are linked with their use of negative campaigning strategies. We rely on candidate survey data for recent elections in three countries—Germany (2017), Switzerland (2019), and Finland (2019). The data includes self-reported measures for candidates’ “Big Five” personality traits (extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness) and the the use of attacks towards their opponents during the campaign. Controlling for the usual suspects driving the use of negative campaigning we show that this latter is associated with low agreeableness and (marginally) with high extraversion and low conscientiousness. The role of personality for the focus of an attack (issue vs. character attacks) is somewhat less clear-cut. All in all, kinder and more stable candidates tend to go less negative; when they do, they tend to stay away from character-based attacks and somehow focus on issues.

La comunicazione di Matteo Salvini durante la pandemia: l’immigrazione e la delegittimazione dell’avversario politico

Following the critical discourse analysis approach, this article intends to highlight how the anti-immigration perspective is (re)produced within the Facebook page of the Italian political leader Matteo Salvini during the pandemic scenario between March 2020–March 2021. Quantitative and qualitative analysis have been applied to Salvini’s posts and users’ comments aiming at identifying the linguistic strategies that contribute to instrumentalizing the emergency and aim to reinforce the process of “securitization” of national borders as well as the re-legitimation of national identities. Findings suggest that the main discursive strategies used by the political leader do not include migrants as a danger for the spread of the virus. Rather, Salvini systematically organized the migratory narration on negative campaigning blaming political opponents and recontextualized the moralization of borders. The contribution helps to reveal how the anti-migration discourse is reproduced during the COVID-19 outbreak and how the politicization of the migration serves as a context for the normalization of migrant’s exclusion.

Informative campaigning in multidimensional politics: The role of naïve voters

This paper aims to investigate the possibility that electoral campaigning transmits truthful information in a situation where campaigning has a direct persuasive effect on a subset of the electorate called “naïve voters.” To this end, we construct a multi-sender signaling game in which an incumbent and a challenger decide whether to focus on policy or ability in electoral campaigning, and a media outlet then decides whether to gather news. Voters are divided into sophisticated and naïve voters. We demonstrate that a candidate's strategy regarding their issues of focus (campaign messages) can signal his or her private information. Specifically, negative campaigning against the incumbent's ability signals the incumbent's low ability in all separating equilibria. It is also noteworthy that separating equilibria exist only when sophisticated and naïve voters coexist. This implies that a fraction of naïve voters has a non-monotonic effect on the possibility of transmitting truthful information.

Are microtargeted campaign messages more negative and diverse? An analysis of Facebook Ads in European election campaigns

Concerns about the use of online political microtargeting (OPM) by campaigners have arisen since the Cambridge Analytica scandal hit the international political arena. In addition to providing conceptual clarity on OPM and explore the use of such techniques in Europe, this paper seeks to empirically disentangle the differing behaviours of campaigners when they message citizens through microtargeted rather than non-targeted campaigning. More precisely, I hypothesise that campaigners use negative campaigning and are more diverse in terms of topics when they use OPM. To investigate whether these expectations hold true, I use text-as-data techniques to analyse an original dataset of 4,091 political Facebook Ads during the last national elections in Austria, Italy, Germany and Sweden. Results show that while microtargeted ads might indeed be more thematically diverse, there does not seem to be a significant difference to non-microtargeted ads in terms of negativity. In conclusion, I discuss the implications of these findings for microtargeted campaigns and how future research could be conducted.

Are Political Attacks a Laughing Matter? Three Experiments on Political Humor and the Effectiveness of Negative Campaigning

Research on the effectiveness of negative campaigning offers mixed results. Negative messages can sometimes work to depress candidate evaluations, but they can also backfire against the attacker. In this article, we examine how humor can help mitigate the unintended effects of negative campaigning using data from three experimental studies in the United States and the Netherlands. Our results show that (1) political attacks combined with “other-deprecatory humor” (i.e., jokes against the opponents) are less likely to backfire against the attacker and can even increase positive evaluations of this latter—especially when the attack is perceived as amusing. At the same time and contrary to what we expected, (2) humor does not blunt the attack: humorous attacks are not less effective against the target than serious attacks. All in all, these results suggest that humor can be a good strategy for political attacks: jokes reduce harmful backlash effects against the attacker, and humoros attacks remain just as effective as humorless ones. When in doubt, be funny. All data and materials are openly available for replication.

Mapping the drivers of negative campaigning: Insights from a candidate survey

Which candidates are more likely to go negative, and under which conditions? We analyze self-reported survey data from candidates having run in the 2017 German federal election for the main parties. More specifically, we test a comprehensive set of factors supposed to drive the use of (a) negative campaigning in general, (b) policy attacks, and (c) character attacks. Our results show that for all three versions of negative campaigning the political profile of candidates is most important, followed by personality traits, perceived campaign dynamics, social profile, and available campaign resources. Within these categories, five factors are important across the board: members of the governing parties are less likely to attack, ‘extreme ideology’ of the candidate fuels the use of attack politics, candidates who believe that the media can persuade voters attack more often, disagreeable candidates tend to go negative, and male candidates are more likely to attack than females.

THE 2020 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, TRUMPISM AND THE ROOTS OF NEGATIVE DISTRUST

This article explores the role of negative distrust as applied to the 2020 U.S. presidential election focusing specifically on the campaign and sup- porters of President Donald J. Trump. I survey negative campaigning rhetoric, the enlistment of far-right militant groups to his cause and the general political discourse of the Trump campaign and its allies and how these elements created a dangerous environment within the United States leading to the 6 January attack on the U.S. Capitol. Furthermore, I examine how the sowing of con - spiracy theories, fear and disinformation had led directly to a degradation of the presidential election process and for the first time in U.S. history, there was not a safe and smooth transfer of power from one presidential administration to another. Finally, I conclude how the active employment of negative distrust amongst the electorate contributes to political and national instability that threatens not merely constitutional crisis, but the invalidation of the electoral process in the United States in general.