Foresight: a new approach based on the Z-number cognitive map

Foresight has recently emerged as one of the most attractive and practical fields of study, while being used to draw up a preferable future and formulate appropriate strategies for achieving predetermined goals. The present research aimed at providing a framework for foresight with a primary focus on the role of a cognitive approach and its combination with the concept of fuzzy cognitive map in the environments of uncertainty and ambiguity. The proposed framework consisted of the 3 phases: pre-foresight, foresight, and post-foresight. The main stage (foresight) focused on the role of imagination and intuition in drawing the future in the experts’ minds and depicting their perceptions above perceptions in the form of a fuzzy cognitive map influenced by variables related to the subject under study in order to determine a preferable future. The use of a Z-number concept and integrating it with fuzzy cognitive maps in the foresight-oriented decision-making space, which was mainly saturated with uncertainty and ambiguity, was one of the main strengths of the proposed framework in the current investigation. The present paper focused primarily on the evolution of expert’s knowledge with regard to the topic of foresight. The role of Z-number in various processes, from data collection to illustration, analysis, and aggregation of cognitive maps, was considered for gaining knowledge and understanding into the nature of future. Moreover, an ultimate objective was realized through identifying, aggregating, and selecting the variables from each expert’s perspective and then the relationship between each variable was determined in the main stage of foresight. Finally, the proposed framework was presented and explicated in the form of a case study, which revealed satisfactory results.

The influence of information configuration on mobile game download

PurposeThe study aims to show how several factors interact to promote mobile game download: the number of games released by a publisher, the quality of the games released, the popularity of a game's genre, the quality of borrowed intellectual property, the frequency of recommendations, intragenre ranking, consumer rating and review quantity.Design/methodology/approachSignaling theory was used to classify the mobile game information displayed on the Apple App Store into four groups. A conceptual model was proposed to illustrate the complex relationship between the information and download. Based on information on 203 mobile games in the seven days following their release, the model was empirically tested to identify the influence of information configuration on game download by combining fuzzy qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM).FindingsThree solutions were identified for high game download and two for low/medium. The number of previous games released by a publisher, intragenre ranking, consumer rating and review quantity are core conditions that reinforce high game download. The effects of one information type on another and on downloads change as coexisting information types change.Originality/valueThis study enriches existing knowledge about how combinations of multiple types of game information lead to game download and extends previous variance-based research. Combining an FCM with fsQCA can facilitate one’s understanding of the complex causal relationships between game information and download.

Perceptive Factors That Affect Household Food Consumption Among Different Grassland Areas: A Case Study Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map

Food consumption acts as an intermediary between ecosystems and human systems in grassland areas. In this study, we generated a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) to obtain a semi-quantitative assessment of impact factors on food consumption in the Xilin Gol Grassland, China, from the perception of local rural households. Based on it, the food consumption impact factors networks of households in Xilin Gol Grassland were created. Results showed that household recognition of food consumption impact factors differed among grassland transects in both amount and category, and the results of principal component analysis (PCA) ascertain such differences and transitions. Livestock breeding, income, local economic development, consumption habit, age, food price, and cost were the most important impact factors mentioned by both farmers and herdsmen. From south to north in the grassland transects, households' cognition of ecological and economic factors increased, and the cognition of personal and social factors decreased. Differences in supply, culture, customs, and socioeconomic characteristics affected the cognition of households and their livelihoods, which influenced impact factors as well as associated connections. The role of livestock breeding also validated the connection between human actives and the grassland ecosystem. Results from this study can be used as a reference for policymakers during decision-making processes respective of regional sustainable development.

From Distance Learning to Integrated Digital Learning: A Fuzzy Cognitive Analysis Focused on Engagement, Motivation, and Participation During COVID-19 Pandemic

This work focuses on Distance Learning during the COVID-19 pandemic to improve students’ motivation, participation, and engagement, trying to contain the drop-out phenomenon. Distance Learning at the time of COVID-19 is an educational methodology and it can be considered the only occasion to keep an educational connection between students and teachers. Experimentation in a Mathematics STEM class was carried out evaluating the impact of Distance Learning on students’ levels of motivation, participation, and engagement, computed through a Fuzzy Cognitive Map. Specifically, it was performed on some affective and interaction parameters derived from using an adaptive e-learning platform and from the answers of a semi-structured questionnaire. The results, which have been analysed through Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge and Instrumental Genesis theories, show on one hand that Distance Learning is valid as an additional and support methodology but, on the other hand, they highlight the ineffectiveness of completely remote teaching. Therefore, a teaching method that integrates moments of distance teaching with activities carried out in the presence, in the classroom, or in other university environments, is hoped to be used as soon as the emergency is over: a mix of styles, a fluid flow of knowledge between the physical classroom and the virtual classroom. We will call this Integrated Digital Learning.