The financial and prudential performance of Chinese banks and Fintech lenders in the era of digitalization

The years 2013 to 2019 marked an explosion in Fintech in China. We analyze the financial and prudential performance of 40 exchange-traded banks and 25 listed Fintech lenders in China during this watershed period. Among other things, traditional banks experienced rising operating costs, declining profit margins and softening loan quality. Consistent with a process of adaptation, traditional bank performance stabilized in the latter part of the study period (2018-19) after an initial period of decline. Study findings also highlight rising business and regulatory costs for Fintech providers over the course of the study frame. A marked deterioration in online lenders’ Special Mention and Non-Performing Loan (SML & NPL) positions arose during the period. Within the traditional bank group, smaller entities with fewer growth options and greater foreign ownership fared worst in prudential terms. Traditional banks’ financial and prudential performance also declines with time since IPO. Relative to joint stock commercial, city and rural banks, state-owned lenders registered more resilient performance, especially in relation to asset quality. In a final area, we construct a categorical Fintech proficiency variable for China's established banks. Our preliminary evidence suggests such proficiencies help stabilize SML and NPL rates and support financial returns. Overall, we offer major contribution to the banking literature by analyzing the financial and prudential performance of both incumbent and emerging lenders in one of the world’s most dynamic Fintech settings.

Option pricing with random risk aversion

Based on a standard general equilibrium economy, we develop a framework for pricing European options where the risk aversion parameter is state dependent, and aggregate wealth and the underlying asset have a bivariate transformed-normal distribution. Our results show that the volatility and the skewness of the risk aversion parameter change the slope of the pricing kernel, and that, as the volatility of the risk aversion parameter increases, the (Black and Scholes) implied volatility shifts upwards but its shape remains the same, which implies that the volatility of the risk aversion parameter does not change the shape of the risk neutral distribution. Also, we demonstrate that the pricing kernel may become non-monotonic for high levels of volatility and low levels of skewness of the risk aversion parameter. An empirical example shows that the estimated volatility of the risk aversion parameter tends to be low in periods of high market volatility and vice-versa.

Bank switching of US small businesses: new methods and evidence

Despite being informationally opaque, small firms often switch from their primary financial institution to transactional lenders, with the relationship banking theory invoking the holdup problem as a culprit explanation. Using US evidence and an estimation strategy that overcomes traditional shortcomings in small business research, our study captures the determinants and, for the first time, the ex post effects of the switching decision. We find that switching is less likely when the primary financial institution is a nearby bank associated with quality services and connected to the firm via other business or social relationships. Small firms become more loyal as they grow in size and pursue nonmortgage credit. Outside the primary relationship, both loan approval and borrowing cost are adversely impacted, however loan maturities are longer. Moreover, the likelihood of pledging collateral remains unaffected, provided that the type of collateral is least sensitive to the borrower’s information environment. Jointly, our findings describe a trade-off inconsistent with the holdup problem, and an opportunity for banks to enhance customer loyalty by improving aspects of the relationship unrelated to the terms of credit.

How did the Sarbanes–Oxley Act affect managerial incentives? Evidence from corporate acquisitions

We examine the impact of incentive compensation on the riskiness of acquisition decisions before and after the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX). Before SOX, equity-based compensation was positively related to changes in risk around acquisition decisions, but this relationship weakened after the introduction of SOX. The drop in post-SOX acquisition-related risk stems from how managers respond to compensation-based incentives in the new regulatory environment. We show that executive stock options and pay-risk sensitivity drive post-SOX managerial responsiveness to risk-taking incentives. We also document a post-SOX value-enhancing effect on long-term stock-price performance and total factor productivity through these same incentive compensation mechanisms. The results are robust to selection bias, simultaneity, measurements of risk, and the definition of incentive compensation.

Partisan political connections, ethnic tribalism, and firm performance

This paper investigates the impact of partisan political connections and ethnic tribalism on firm performance in a hyper-partisan political environment. Although existing literature generally shows that political connections improve firm performance, we argue that under the theory of electoral competition, political connections can be a double-edged sword because of the tension of partisan politics. Hence, we expect that changes in government can affect firm performance. Using a unique dataset from Nigeria, we find that political connections are valuable when a firm's patron party is in power, whereas they are detrimental to firm value when their patron party is in opposition. Furthermore, we find that CEO ethnic tribal affiliation with the President improves firm performance even when the firm's patron party is in opposition. This paper extends the literature on political connections and helps managers and policymakers understand the timely use of political connections in a hyper-partisan environment.