The Financial-Real Interaction and Investment in the Business Cycle: Theory and Empirical Evidence

1996 ◽  
pp. 606-634 ◽  
Author(s):  
Willi Semmler ◽  
Reiner Franke
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
The Business Cycle

Pandemic Shock: Methodological Explanation and New Public Contract

2021 ◽  
Vol 96 (3) ◽  
pp. 45-52
Author(s):  
I. V. Zikunova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Business Operations ◽  
New Public ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Post Industrial

The pandemic shock manifested itself as a new phenomenon in the socio-economic dynamics, and thus necessitated a special reflection in the framework of the business cycle theory. In this study we present the results of theoretical positioning of a pandemic shock using the methodology of business cycle theory, in particular, using the principles of the impulse approach. To formulate conclusions, empirical data were used on the processes observed in 2020 in Russia, in the subsystems of supply and demand, in the system of state regulation. The conclusions obtained by the author can be used as sources for the formation of applied scientific problems for the continuation of research within the framework of the theory of business cycle at the post-industrial stage of socio-economic development. These conclusions include a statement of changes in the organization of labor and business operations, changes in the balance of mutual obligations of the parties to a social contract, conclusions about the emergence of new factors in the quality of human development.

scholarly journals NEW PERSPECTIVES ON HENRY LUDWELL MOORE’S USE OF HARMONIC ANALYSIS

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Paul Turner ◽  
Justine Wood
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Harmonic Analysis ◽  
Fourier Transformation ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Empirical Economics ◽  
History Of ◽  
Complete Failure ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Relationship

This paper reconsiders the contribution of Henry Ludwell Moore to dynamic economics through the use of harmonic analysis. We show that Moore’s analysis is innovative in its use of the Fourier transformation for the identification of cycles with different periodicities. This enables Moore to identify cycles of longer length with more precision than would be the case for the standard methodology. We are able to replicate the main features of his results and confirm the existence of a rainfall cycle with a periodicity similar to that of the business cycle (eight years). However, we find that the evidence for a longer (thirty-three-year) rainfall cycle is weaker than Moore indicates. We also argue that a central theme of Moore’s analysis—the relationship among rainfall, agricultural productivity, and the business cycle—marks an early precursor of the “real business cycle” approach. George Stigler’s (1962) dismissal of Moore’s work on cycles as “a complete failure” is therefore, in our opinion, unfair. Instead, we argue that, although his work is certainly flawed, it nevertheless deserves a place in both the history of business cycle theory and empirical economics.

scholarly journals Book Review: "The Skyscraper Curse: And How Austrian Economics Predicted Every Major Economic Crisis of the Last Century"

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 627-633
Author(s):  
Michael Novak
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Austrian Economics ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Track Record ◽  
The World ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle ◽  
The Business Cycle

Mark Thornton’s The Skyscraper Curse exposes readers to the unique phenomenon of the Skyscraper Index and provides them with a comprehensive overview of Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT). The Skyscraper Index, as readers learn in the first few pages of the book, shows a correlation between the development of a new tallest building in the world and the business cycle. Although the Skyscraper Index does have a strong track record, the skyscrapers are not the heart of the matter but rather the policies of the Federal Reserve that promote and encourage skyscraper development.

scholarly journals Lessons from a Review of Money, Banking, and the Business Cycle

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-113
Author(s):  
Brian P. Simpson
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Austrian Economics ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Rate Of Profit ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Shawn Ritenour provides a review of my two-volume book titled Money, Banking, and the Business Cycle in the winter 2016 issue of The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics. This paper constitutes a response to some of the criticisms of the book in his review. In this response, I discuss topics such as the nature of profits, the sustainability of changes in time preference, the role of changes in prices versus changes in spending in the business cycle, the relationship between interest rates and the rate of profit, the nature of fraud, and the nature of value. I also discuss whether the structure of production can be measured using the average period of production. I address other issues raised by Ritenour as well. This discussion sheds light on Austrian business cycle theory and the nature of the business cycle.

scholarly journals Economic Fluctuations in Turkey in the Light of Business Cycle Theories

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emine Fırat
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Market Failure ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Economic Fluctuations ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Business Cycle Model ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Right

Some economists have tried to demonstrate the cause of economic fluctuations and its solution with business cycle theories. The classical school emphasizes the efficiency of free market economy and the optimization of private economic factors. The Keynesian school believes that the causes of economic fluctuations arise from not only just the deviations from market equilibrium but also market failure on a grand scale. The debate over the source and propagation of economic fluctuations rages as fiercely today as it did in the Great Depression that began in 1929. Economic Fluctuation models investigate to answer the question of why economies go through boom and bust and why economies experience cycles of recession and recovery. In the economic literature, based on the Business Cycle Theories many different approaches have been proposed. While economists discuss the ultimate form of the right business cycle model, they must take into consideration the decisive factors of economic fluctuations in the past century. In this study, the local economic crisis occurred in Turkey in recent years are investigated in the light of Business Cycle Theory and also the effects of macroeconomic policies are evaluated on the basis of economic fluctuations models.

scholarly journals Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective

1989 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 79-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Gregory Mankiw
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Economic Fluctuations ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Real Business Cycles ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Random Fluctuations

Real business cycle theory is the latest incarnation of the classical view of economic fluctuations. It assumes that there are large random fluctuations in the rate of technological change. In response to these fluctuations, individuals rationally alter their levels of labor supply and consumption. The business cycle is, according to this theory, the natural and efficient response of the economy to changes in the available production technology. In this essay, I appraise this newly revived approach to the business cycle. In my view, real business cycle theory does not provide an empirically plausible explanation of economic fluctuations. Both its reliance on large technological disturbances as the primary source of economic fluctuations and its reliance on the intertemporal substitution of leisure to explain changes in employment are fundamental weaknesses. Moreover, to the extent that it trivializes the social cost of observed fluctuations, real business cycle theory is potentially dangerous. The danger is that those who advise policymakers might attempt to use it to evaluate the effects of alternative macroeconomic policies or to conclude that macroeconomic policies are unnecessary.

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