Attributing runoff changes to climate variability and human activities: uncertainty analysis using four monthly water balance models

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 251-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuai Li ◽  
Lihua Xiong ◽  
Hong-Yi Li ◽  
L. Ruby Leung ◽  
Yonas Demissie
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Water Balance Models ◽  
Monthly Water Balance

scholarly journals Runoff changes and their potential links with climate variability and anthropogenic activities: a case study in the upper Huaihe River Basin, China

2015 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 1019-1036 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Zhu ◽  
Wen Wang ◽  
Yi Liu ◽  
Hongjie Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Change Point Detection ◽  
Huaihe River Basin ◽  
Huaihe River ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Change Period ◽  
The Individual

The impacts of climate variability and anthropogenic activities on hydrological processes have been of wide concern in the hydrology community during recent decades. In this study, specific investigations of individual impacts of climate variability and anthropogenic activities on runoff during 1964–2010 are conducted for the upper Huaihe River Basin at Huaibin (HB) and its five sub-catchments. The non-stationary relationship between precipitation and runoff was firstly analyzed, and according to change point detection results, long-term series for each catchment was divided into pre-change period and post-change period, respectively. Then, the climate variability and human activities that occurred in the whole HB catchment were analyzed. Finally, using two quantitative evaluation methods, the individual impacts of climate variability and human activities for each catchment were assessed. The results showed that for the whole HB catchment, runoff changes during the whole post-change period are mainly attributed to climate variability, as for its sub-catchments except the Xinxian catchment. As for decadal behaviors, runoff generally suffered more human-induced impacts in dry decades (1990s) than wet decades (1980s and 2000s). These results reflected the complex role of climate variability and human activities in influencing the runoff regime, which could be considered in local water resources management.

scholarly journals Using Multiple Monthly Water Balance Models to Evaluate Gridded Precipitation Products over Peninsular Spain

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 922 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Adrián López-Ballesteros ◽  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez ◽  
Francisco Segura-Méndez ◽  
David Pulido-Velazquez
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Balance Models ◽  
Monthly Water Balance ◽  
Peninsular Spain

scholarly journals Using the Mann–Kendall test and double mass curve method to explore stream flow changes in response to climate and human activities

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 725-742 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdollah Pirnia ◽  
Mohammad Golshan ◽  
Hamid Darabi ◽  
Jan Adamowski ◽  
Sajad Rozbeh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Double Mass ◽  
Runoff Decrease ◽  
Curve Method ◽  
Dry Seasons ◽  
Wet And Dry Seasons

AbstractAnalyzing intra-annual stream flow can reveal the main causes for runoff changes and the contributions of climate variability and human activities. For this purpose, the Mann–Kendall and cumulative rank difference (CRD) tests, and the double mass curve method, were applied to a time series of hydro-meteorological variables from 1971 to 2010 in the Tajan River basin in Iran. Results indicated that runoff changes in the wet and dry seasons after 1999 had significant respective decreasing and increasing trends, at the 0.01 confidence level, due to dam construction. In the pre-dam period (1991–1998), the results of the double mass curve method showed that climate variability and human activities contributed 57.76% and 42.24%, respectively, to the runoff decrease during the wet season. For the post-dam period (1999–2010), climate variability and anthropogenic activities contributed 24.68% and 75.32%, respectively, to the wet season runoff decrease of 116.55 mm. On the other hand, in the same period during the dry season, climate variability contributed −30.68% and human activities contributed 130.68% to the runoff increase of 41.45 mm. It is evident that runoff changes in both wet and dry seasons were mainly due to human activities associated with dam construction to meet water supply demands for agriculture.

Transferability of monthly water balance models under changing climate conditions in an arid catchment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zana Topalovic ◽  
Andrijana Todorovic ◽  
Jasna Plavsic
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Subjective Assessment ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Water Balance Models ◽  
Model Components ◽  
Monthly Water Balance

<p>Assessment of climate change impact on water resources is often based on hydrologic projections developed using monthly water balance models (MWBMs) forced by climate projections. These models are calibrated against historical data but are expected to provide accurate flow simulations under changing climate conditions. However, an evaluation of these models’ performance is needed to explore their applicability under changing climate conditions, assess uncertainties and eventually indicate model components that should be improved. This should be done in a comprehensive evaluation framework specifically tailored to evaluate applicability of MWBMs in changing climatic conditions.</p><p> </p><p>In this study, we evaluated performance of four MWBMs (abcd, Budyko, GR2M and WASMOD) used for hydrologic simulations in the arid Wimmera River catchment in Australia. This catchment is selected as a challenge for model application because it was affected by the Millennium drought, characterised by a decrease in precipitation and a dramatic drop in runoff. The model evaluation within the proposed framework starts with dividing the complete record period into five non-overlapping sub-periods, calibration and cross-validation (i.e., transfers) of the models. The Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient is used for the calibration in each sub-period. Consistency in model performance, parameter estimates and simulated water balance components across the sub-periods is analysed. Model performance is quantified with statistical performance measures and errors in hydrological signatures. Because the relatively short monthly hydrologic series can lead to biased numerical performance indicators, the framework also includes subjective assessment of model performance and transferability. </p><p> </p><p>The results show that model transfer between climatically contrasted sub-periods affect all statistical measures of model performance and some hydrologic signatures: standard deviation of flows, high flow percentile and percentage of zero flows. While some signatures are reproduced well in all transfers (baseflow index, lag 1 and lag 12 autocorrelations), suggesting their low informativeness about MWBM performance, many signatures are consistently poorly reproduced, even in the calibrations (seasonal distribution, most flow percentiles, streamflow elasticity). This means that good model performance in terms of statistical measures does not imply good performance in terms of hydrologic signatures, probably because the models are not conditioned to reproduce them. Generally, the greatest drop in performance of all the models is obtained in transfers to the driest period, although abcd and Budyko slightly outperformed GR2M and WASMOD. Subjective assessment of model performance largely corresponds to the numerical indicators.</p><p> </p><p>Simulated water balance components, especially soil and groundwater storages and baseflow, significantly vary across the simulation periods. These results suggest that the model components and the parameters that control them are sensitive to the calibration period. Therefore, improved model conceptualisations (particularly partitioning of fast and slow runoff components) and enhanced calibration strategies that put more emphasis on parameters related to slow runoff are needed. More robust MWBM structures or calibration strategies should advance transferability of MWBMs, which is a prerequisite for effective water resources management under changing climate conditions.</p>

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