Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rupert Seidl ◽  
Mart-Jan Schelhaas ◽  
Marcus Lindner ◽  
Manfred J. Lexer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Management ◽  
Bark Beetle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Assess Climate Change ◽  
Scenario Model

Large scale surface–subsurface hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reserves

2009 ◽  
Vol 373 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 122-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Goderniaux ◽  
Serge Brouyère ◽  
Hayley J. Fowler ◽  
Stephen Blenkinsop ◽  
René Therrien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Assess Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Reserves ◽  
Scale Surface

scholarly journals A critical analysis of the carbon neutrality assumption in life cycle assessment of forest bioenergy systems

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiguo Liu ◽  
Zhen Yu ◽  
Xinfeng Xie ◽  
Klaus von Gadow ◽  
Changhui Peng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life Cycle Assessment ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Carbon Accounting ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Forest Residue ◽  
Assess Climate Change ◽  
Accounting Errors

This study presents a critical analysis regarding the assumption of carbon neutrality in life cycle assessment (LCA) models that assess climate change impacts of bioenergy usage. We identified a complex of problems in the carbon neutrality assumption, especially regarding bioenergy derived from forest residues. In this study, we summarized several issues related to carbon neutral assumptions, with particular emphasis on possible carbon accounting errors at the product level. We analyzed errors in estimating emissions in the supply chain, direct and indirect emissions due to forest residue extraction, biogenic CO2 emission from biomass combustion for energy, and other effects related to forest residue extraction. Various modeling approaches are discussed in detail. We concluded that there is a need to correct accounting errors when estimating climate change impacts and proposed possible remedies. To accurately assess climate change impacts of bioenergy use, greater efforts are required to improve forest carbon cycle modeling, especially to identify and correct pitfalls associated with LCA accounting, forest residue extraction effects on forest fire risk and biodiversity. Uncertainties in accounting carbon emissions in LCA are also highlighted, and associated risks are discussed.

scholarly journals Evidence for changes in historic and future groundwater levels in the UK

2015 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher R. Jackson ◽  
John P. Bloomfield ◽  
Jonathan D. Mackay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Groundwater Drought ◽  
The One ◽  
The Uk

We examine the evidence for climate-change impacts on groundwater levels provided by studies of the historical observational record, and future climate-change impact modelling. To date no evidence has been found for systematic changes in groundwater drought frequency or intensity in the UK, but some evidence of multi-annual to decadal coherence of groundwater levels and large-scale climate indices has been found, which should be considered when trying to identify any trends. We analyse trends in long groundwater level time-series monitored in seven observation boreholes in the Chalk aquifer, and identify statistically significant declines at four of these sites, but do not attempt to attribute these to a change in a stimulus. The evidence for the impacts of future climate change on UK groundwater recharge and levels is limited. The number of studies that have been undertaken is small and different approaches have been adopted to quantify impacts. Furthermore, these studies have generally focused on relatively small regions and reported local findings. Consequently, it has been difficult to compare them between locations. We undertake some additional analysis of the probabilistic outputs of the one recent impact study that has produced coherent multi-site projections of changes in groundwater levels. These results suggest reductions in annual and average summer levels, and increases in average winter levels, by the 2050s under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, at most of the sites modelled, when expressed by the median of the ensemble of simulations. It is concluded, however, that local hydrogeological conditions can be an important control on the simulated response to a future climate projection.

scholarly journals Stormwater Management in a Time of Climate Change: Insights from a Series of Scenario-Building Dialogues

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seth P. Tuler ◽  
Thomas Webler ◽  
Jason L. Rhoades
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stormwater Management ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Contextual Knowledge ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Human Environment ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Trade Offs

Abstract Numerous decision support tools have been developed to assist stormwater managers to understand future scenarios and devise management strategies. This paper presents one such tool, the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) process, and reports on experiences from its deployment in 10 coastal communities on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. VCAPS helps to elucidate local complexities, couplings, and contextual nuance through dialogue among technical experts and those with detailed contextual knowledge of a community. Participants in the process develop qualitative scenarios of climate change impacts and how different management strategies may prevent or mitigate undesirable consequences. The scenarios help stormwater managers diagnose potential problems that may emerge from climate change and variability, which can then be subject to further detailed analysis. The authors describe five challenges faced by stormwater managers and how insights that emerge from scenario-based processes like VCAPS can help address them: characterizing the implications of interacting climate stressors that originate stormwater, bringing all available expertise and local knowledge to bear on the problem of stormwater management, integrating local and scientific information about coupled human–environment systems, identifying management actions and their trade-offs, and facilitating planning for sustained coordination among multiple public and private entities.

scholarly journals Development of an integrated computational tool to assess climate change impacts on water supply–demand and flood inundation

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 710-730 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pao-Shan Yu ◽  
Tao-Chang Yang ◽  
Chen-Min Kuo ◽  
Shien-Tsung Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Assess Climate Change ◽  
Southern Taiwan

This paper aims to propose a decision support system (DSS) for evaluating the climate change impacts on water supply–demand and inundation; and assessing the risks for water shortage and inundation under future scenarios. The proposed DSS framework is universal and flexible, which comprises five modules integrated by a geographic information system platform, including the modules of (1) scenario rainfall and temperature projection under climate change, (2) impact assessment of water supply–demand, (3) impact assessment of inundation, (4) assessment of vulnerability and risk, and (5) adaptation strategy. A case study in southern Taiwan was performed to demonstrate how the DSS provides information on the climate change impacts and risks under future scenarios. The information is beneficial to the authorities of water resources management for understanding the spatial risks for water shortage and inundation, and planning suitable adaptation strategies for the locations with larger risks.

Climate change and Australian livestock systems: impacts, research and policy issues

2008 ◽  
Vol 48 (7) ◽  
pp. 780 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. Howden ◽  
S. J. Crimp ◽  
C. J. Stokes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Forage Production ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Operational Systems ◽  
Assess Climate Change ◽  
The Many ◽  
Adaptation Options

The recent changes in Australia’s climate, the likelihood of further changes over the next decades to centuries, and the likely significant impacts of these changes on the Australian livestock industries, provide increasing urgency to explore adaptation options more effectively. Climate and atmospheric changes are likely to impact on the quantity and reliability of forage production; forage quality; thermal stress on livestock; water demands for both animal needs and for growing forage; pest, disease and weed challenges; land degradation processes; and various social and economic aspects including trade. Potential adaptation options are available for moderate climate changes, with these often being variations of existing climate risk management strategies. However, to date there are few Australian examples where these adaptations have been assessed systematically on any scale (e.g. enterprise, regional, whole of industry or national). Nor have many studies been undertaken in a way that (i) effectively harness industry knowledge, (ii) undertake climate change analyses in the framework of existing operational systems, or (iii) assess climate change in the context of other socioeconomic or technical changes. It is likely that there are limits to the effectiveness of existing adaptations under more severe climate changes. In such cases more systemic changes in resource allocation need considering, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require ‘mainstreaming’ climate change into policies covering a range of scales, responsibilities and issues. This mainstreaming will facilitate the development of comprehensive, dynamic and long lasting policy solutions. The integrative nature of climate change problems requires science to include integrative elements in the search for solutions: a willingness to apply integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision-makers.

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