scholarly journals Using multiple hybrid spatial design network analysis to predict longitudinal effect of a major city centre redevelopment on pedestrian flows

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Crispin H. V. Cooper ◽  
Ian Harvey ◽  
Scott Orford ◽  
Alain J. F. Chiaradia
Keyword(s):  
Network Analysis ◽  
Shortest Path ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Railway Stations ◽  
Spatial Design ◽  
Demand Models ◽  
Directional Change ◽  
Spatial Network Analysis ◽  
Changes Over Time

AbstractPredicting how changes to the urban environment layout will affect the spatial distribution of pedestrian flows is important for environmental, social and economic sustainability. We present longitudinal evaluation of a model of the effect of urban environmental layout change in a city centre (Cardiff 2007–2010), on pedestrian flows. Our model can be classed as regression based direct demand using Multiple Hybrid Spatial Design Network Analysis (MH-sDNA) assignment, which bridges the gap between direct demand models, facility-based activity estimation and spatial network analysis (which can also be conceived as a pedestrian route assignment based direct demand model). Multiple theoretical flows are computed based on retail floor area: everywhere to shops, shop to shop, railway stations to shops and parking to shops. Route assignment, in contrast to the usual approach of shortest path only, is based on a hybrid of shortest path and least directional change (most direct) with a degree of randomization. The calibration process determines a suitable balance of theoretical flows to best match observed pedestrian flows, using generalized cross-validation to prevent overfit. Validation shows that the model successfully predicts the effect of layout change on flows of up to approx. 8000 pedestrians per hour based on counts spanning a 1 km2 city centre, calibrated on 2007 data and validated to 2010 and 2011. This is the first time, to our knowledge, that a pedestrian flow model with assignment has been evaluated for its ability to forecast the effect of urban layout changes over time.

Regional Bicycle Network Evaluation and Strategic Planning: A Quantitative Methodological Approach Despite Limited Data Sources for Cycling

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110288
Author(s):  
Alex van Dulmen ◽  
Martin Fellendorf
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Demand Models ◽  
Bicycle Infrastructure

In cases where budgets and space are limited, the realization of new bicycle infrastructure is often hard, as an evaluation of the existing network or the benefits of new investments is rarely possible. Travel demand models can offer a tool to support decision makers, but because of limited data availability for cycling, the validity of the demand estimation and trip assignment are often questionable. This paper presents a quantitative method to evaluate a bicycle network and plan strategic improvements, despite limited data sources for cycling. The proposed method is based on a multimodal aggregate travel demand model. Instead of evaluating the effects of network improvements on the modal split as well as link and flow volumes, this method works the other way around. A desired modal share for cycling is set, and the resulting link and flow volumes are the basis for a hypothetical bicycle network that is able to satisfy this demand. The current bicycle network is compared with the hypothetical network, resulting in preferable actions and a ranking based on the importance and potentials to improve the modal share for cycling. Necessary accompanying measures for other transport modes can also be derived using this method. For example, our test case, a city in Austria with 300,000 inhabitants, showed that a shift of short trips in the inner city toward cycling would, without countermeasures, provide capacity for new longer car trips. The proposed method can be applied to existing travel models that already contain a mode choice model.

Spatial Demand Models with Uniform Rate of Growth

1975 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 589-599 ◽  
Author(s):  
E A C Thomas ◽  
O Davies
Keyword(s):  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
Demand Function ◽  
Transportation Cost ◽  
Market Area ◽  
Constant Size ◽  
Demand Models ◽  
Market Areas ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Spatial Demand ◽  
Over Time

This paper examines the changes over time in the spatial dispersion of facilities in a bounded one-dimensional habitat. Each facility produces a single good for a unique market area and demand for the good varies inversely with distance to the nearest facility and increases uniformly over time. Production and transportation cost functions are not assumed to be linear, and it is assumed that market areas are chosen so as to minimise the average cost of producing and transporting unit amount of the good. Conditions relating the demand function to the transportation cost function are given which are necessary and/or sufficient for the size of the market area to decrease over time. It is shown that if the market area has constant size, ‘balanced growth’ occurs if and only if the demand function is of the Pareto type. Finally, the relevance to this analysis of economies of scale is discussed.

scholarly journals ANALISIS POLA KONSUMSI DAN MODEL PERMINTAAN IKAN MENURUT KARAKTERISTIK RUMAH TANGGA DI INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Freshty Yulia Arthatiani ◽  
Nunung Kusnadi ◽  
Harianto Harianto
Keyword(s):  
Fish Consumption ◽  
Income Elasticity ◽  
Fish Distribution ◽  
Consumption Patterns ◽  
Demand System ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Almost Ideal Demand System ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Demand Models ◽  
The Government

ABSTRAKTujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mendeskripsikan pola konsumsi ikan di Indonesia dan mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi permintaan ikan menurut karakteristik rumah tangga di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data SUSENAS yang dilaporkan oleh Badan Pusat Statistik pada bulan Maret 2016. Pola konsumsi ikan dianalisis menggunakan statistik deskriptif dan model permintaan ikan dianalisis dengan menggunakan pendekatan model Linnear Approximation Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). Hasil riset menunjukkan bahwa pola konsumsi rumah tangga di Indonesia dikelompokkan menjadi konsumsi ikan air laut segar sebesar 22.10 kg/kapita/tahun, ikan air tawar/payau segar sebesar 16.75 kg/kapita/tahun, udang segar sebesar 9.58 kg/kapita/tahun dan ikan olahan sebesar 4.22 kg/kapita/tahun. Dugaan model permintaan memberikan hasil cukup baik dengan 82.15% dari semua peubah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap fungsi permintaan kelompok ikan dan koefisien determinasi sebesar 27.06%. Nilai elastisitas pendapatan mengindikasikan bahwa seluruh kelompok ikan merupakan barang normal dan ikan olahan cenderung inelastis, sedangkan dari nilai elastisitas harga menunjukkan tanda negatif yang sesuai dengan teori ekonomi. Nilai elastisitas silang antar kelompok ikan menunjukkan hubungan yang bervariasi antar kelompok. Implikasi kebijakan yang dapat disarankan untuk meningkatkan konsumsi ikan segar adalah dengan peningkatan ketersediaan ikan melalui kebijakan peningkatan produksi dan peningkatan efektifitas distribusi ikan. Kebijakan promosi dan edukasi masih diperlukan untuk meningkatkan konsumsi ikan olahan karena sifatnya yang inelastis  terhadap perubahan harga dan pendapatan.Title: Analysis of Fish Consumption Patterns and Fish Demand Model Based on Household’s Characteristics in IndonesiaABSTRACTThis study aims to describe the pattern of fish consumption in Indonesia and to identify factors affecting household’s fish demand in Indonesia as well as estimating the elasticities of income and price. The data analyzed were mainly obtained from the SUSENAS Database-a nation social economy survey  conduct by the Indonesian Bureau of Statistic (BPS- during march 2016. Fish consumption patterns were analyzed using descriptive statistical analysis, while fish demand models were analyzed by Linnear Approximation Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). Research shows that household consumption patterns in Indonesia are grouped into consumption of marine fish at 22.10 kg / capita / year, freshwater/brackish fish at 16.75 kg / capita / year, fresh shrimp at 9.58 kg / capita / year and processed fish amounted to 4.22 kg / capita / year. The estimation of the demand model gives quite good results with82,15% of all variables have a significant effect on the demand function of fish groups and the coefficient of determination is 27.06%. The value of income elasticity showed that all fish groups are normal goods and were negatively related to prices. The cross elasticities showed variation relationship between fish groups. With such result, in order for the government to be able to push the fish consumption level furtherwould require an increasing fish availbility through policies to increase production and effectiveness of fish distribution for fresh fish. Meanwhile education and promotion policies are necessary to increase consumption of processed fish because of their inelastic demand for changes in prices and income.

scholarly journals Community-Level Urban Green Space Equity Evaluation Based on Spatial Design Network Analysis (sDNA): A Case Study of Central Wuhan, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (19) ◽  
pp. 10174
Author(s):  
Qing Li ◽  
Kaili Peng ◽  
Peng Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Network Analysis ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Green Spaces ◽  
Urban Green ◽  
Urban Green Spaces ◽  
The Core ◽  
Spatial Design ◽  
Residential Population ◽  
Baseline Information ◽  
Core Areas

Urban green spaces (UGSs) provide numerous irreplaceable environmental and social benefits to humankind, but the lack of baseline information makes it difficult to propose a reasonable greening strategy so as to achieve an equitable allocation of community green spaces. This paper divides UGSs into three classes using the spatial design network analysis (sDNA) and quantifies the UGS accessibility of communities in central Wuhan. Based on these results and the Gini coefficient, we analyze the UGS equity of the spatial distribution at the community level, then propose future greening strategies both at the city and community levels. The results show that the railway station and old Wuhan city are the core areas of traffic network strength (TNS). UGSs are evenly distributed in the core areas of TNS, but the number of UGSs in non-core areas is small, and their distribution is relatively uneven, and the number of communities with medium UGS accessibility is the largest, carrying the densest residential population. Most communities perform well in terms of UGS equity, but the UGS equity of 163 communities, covering a population of more than one million, remains to be improved. The method and conclusions of this study will contribute to the future greening policy making of 965 communities in central Wuhan, thus promoting the orderly planning and high-quality construction of community living circles.

scholarly journals Addressing Household Income Distribution in Air Travel Demand Models: Case Study of the Baltimore–Washington Region

2019 ◽  
Vol 2673 (1) ◽  
pp. 491-502 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey D. Gosling ◽  
David Ballard
Keyword(s):  
Income Distribution ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Passenger Demand ◽  
Average Household Income ◽  
Demand Models ◽  
The Future

The paper describes the development of an air passenger demand model for the Baltimore–Washington metropolitan region that was undertaken as part of a recently concluded ACRP project that explored the use of disaggregated socioeconomic data in air passenger demand studies. The model incorporated a variable reflecting the change in household income distribution, together with more traditional aggregate causal variables: population, employment, average household income, and airfares as measured by the average U.S. airline yield, as well as several year-specific dummy variables. The model was estimated on annual data for the period 1990 to 2010 and obtained statistically significant estimated coefficients for all variables, including both the average household income and the household income distribution variable. Including household income distribution in the model resulted in a significant change to the estimated coefficient for average household income, giving a much higher estimated elasticity of demand with respect to average household income compared with a model that does not consider changes in household income distribution. This has important implications for the use of such demand models for forecasting, as household income distribution and average household income may change in the future in quite different ways, which would affect the future levels of air passenger travel projected by the models.

scholarly journals Understanding commuting patterns and changes: Counterfactual analysis in a planning support framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (8) ◽  
pp. 1440-1455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianren Yang
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Mobile Phone Data ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Planning Support ◽  
Economic Framework ◽  
City Regions ◽  
Commuting Patterns ◽  
Changes Over Time

In order to contain commuting distance growth and relieve traffic burden in mega-city regions, it is essential to understand journey-to-work patterns and changes in those patterns. This research develops a planning support model that integrates increasingly available mobile phone data and conventional statistics into a theoretical urban economic framework to reveal and explain commuting changes. Base-year calibration and cross-year validation were conducted first to test the model’s predictive ability. Counterfactual simulations were then applied to help local planners and policymakers understand which factors lead to differences in commuting patterns and how different policies influence various categorical zones (i.e. centre, near suburbs, sub-centres and far suburbs). The case study of Shanghai shows that jobs–housing co-location results in shorter commutes and that policymakers should be more cautious when determining workplace locations as they play a more significant role in mitigating excessive commutes and redistributing travel demand. Furthermore, land use and transport developments should be coordinated across spatial scales to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes for both the city centre and the suburbs. Coupled with empirical evidence explaining commuting changes over time, the proposed model can deliver timely and situation-cogent messages regarding the success or failure of planned policy initiatives.

Tracking the development of co-management: using network analysis in a case from the Canadian Arctic

Polar Record ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 422-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
John-Erik Kocho-Schellenberg ◽  
Fikret Berkes
Keyword(s):  
Network Analysis ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Land Claims ◽  
Joint Management ◽  
Management Processes ◽  
Functional Problem ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Indigenous Land

ABSTRACTTo understand the interplay of factors that shape changes in management strategies, we tracked the evolution of beluga whale co-management involving the Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada, the Fisheries Joint Management Committee (FJMC), and the Tuktoyaktuk Hunter and Trapper Committee from its beginnings in the mid-1980s to the present. The objective was to analyse changes over time in the communication network involved in dealing with the Husky Lakes beluga entrapment issue, using social network analysis (SNA). Along with qualitative information, the use of SNA provided quantitative data to document the development of co-management over time. According to both government and indigenous parties, a fully functional problem-solving partnership developed over the course of two decades. Using the beluga case as the illustration, we traced the development of joint management processes, overcoming some of the initial obstacles and accommodating the needs of the various parties. This case demonstrates the importance of legal arrangements (the indigenous land claims agreement), the role of key individuals and the bridging organisation (FJMC) created by the agreement, and the maturation of co-management over time.

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