scholarly journals Back to the Future: a Sensitivity Analysis to Predict Future Fertility Rates Considering the Influence of Family Policies—The Cases of Spain and Norway

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vicente Díaz Gandasegui ◽  
Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel ◽  
Maria T. Sanz
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Family Policies ◽  
Future Fertility ◽  
The Future

Immigrant Fertility Trends and Population Growth in Leeds

1974 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 509-546 ◽  
Author(s):  
J R King
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Projection ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Projection Model ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Future Fertility ◽  
The Future

A simple population-projection model is presented which is used to predict the future numbers of Commonwealth immigrants in Leeds CB. The assumptions concerning survival and immigration used in the model are stated fully. The rates of fertility of immigrant groups in Leeds are investigated along with the trends in these rates in the historical period. These trends are used to calculate future fertility rates for the immigrant groups in Leeds CB. The results of the projection model are presented for each census date up to 1986 and conclusions are drawn from this information.

Fertility intentions among the working population of Dalian City born between 1980 and 1989

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Hongyan Qiu ◽  
Qun Zhang ◽  
Jin Zhang ◽  
Qingshan Wang ◽  
Lihong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Family Income ◽  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Fertility Intentions ◽  
Second Child ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Future Fertility ◽  
The Future ◽  
Dalian City ◽  
Ideal Number

Abstract In October 2015, the Chinese Government announced that the one-child policy had finally been replaced by a universal two-child policy. China’s universal two-child policy is highly significant because, for the first time in 36 years, no one in an urban city is restricted to having just one child. This cross-sectional study was conducted to explore future fertility intentions and factors influencing individual reproductive behaviour (whether to have two children) in Dalian City. A total of 1370 respondents were interviewed. The respondents’ mean ideal number of children was only 1.73, and urban respondents’ sex preference was symmetrical. A total of 19.0% of the respondents were unmarried, 64.5% were married and had childbearing experience and only 6.3% of married respondents had two children. Among the 1370 participants, 30.4% stated that they would have a second child, while 69.6% refused to have a second child in the future. Binary logistic regression analysis (Model 1) showed that the following characteristics were associated with having only one child in the future: being female, being older, having a lower education level, being born in Dalian, having a lower family income and reporting one child as the ideal number of children. Model 2 (comprising only respondents with childbearing experience) showed that respondents who were female, had a lower family income and were unable to obtain additional financial support from parents were more likely to intend to stick at one child. In addition, respondents’ ideal number of children and childbearing experiences had a significant influence on future fertility intentions. These results suggest that fertility intentions and reproductive behaviours are still below those needed for replacement level fertility in Dalian City. China’s policymakers should pay more attention to these factors (socioeconomic characteristics, economic factors, desired number of children and childbearing experiences) and try to increase individual reproductive behaviour.

The Fertile Fields of Policy? Examining Fertility Decision-Making and Policy Settings

2008 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane Maree Maher
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Qualitative Study ◽  
Work And Family ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Family Policies ◽  
Fertility Decision ◽  
Individual Choices ◽  
Fertility Choices ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Oecd Data

OECD data suggest a significant gap between desired fertility rates and the total fertility rate achieved in developed industrial nations. In a qualitative study conducted in Australia in 2002 and 2003, people were asked how family policies influenced their decisions to have children. Participants did not clearly associate their fertility choices and prevailing policy settings. But their decision-making was grounded in commonplace accounts of incompatibility in balancing work and family. This article considers how individual choices may be shaped by such social and policy discourses and what implications this has for our understanding of the relationship between fertility choices and policy settings.

Sensitivitätsanalyse des Fördergutverhaltens*/Sensitivity analysis of transported material – Physics simulation based analysis of bulk material related to the topology of vibratory bowl feeders

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (09) ◽  
pp. 622-626
Author(s):  
C. Stocker ◽  
G. Reinhart
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Bulk Material ◽  
Automated Generation ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
The Future ◽  
Physics Simulation ◽  
Material Physics ◽  
Transported Material

Vibrationswendelförderer (VWF) sind die meistverwendeten Systeme zur automatisierten Vereinzelung und Zuführung von Schüttgut. Zur Verbesserung der derzeit manuellen Entwicklung, werden Methoden zur Simulation von VWF erforscht. Der Fachartikel stellt eine physiksimulationsbasierte Sensitivitätsanalyse des Förderguts bezüglich der Topologie im VWF vor. Die Ergebnisse dieser Analyse dienen als Basis für die Entwicklung eines Verfahrens zur automatischen Generierung von Ordnungsschikanen.   Vibratory bowl feeders (VBF) are the most frequently used systems for automated sorting and feeding of bulk material. To improve the current manual development process, methods for simulation of VBF are researched. The presented paper introduces a physics simulation based sensitivity analysis of the behavior of transported parts related to the topology of the VBF. These results provide a basis for the future development of an algorithm for the automated generation of orienting devices.

The Future Fertility of the American Negro

Social Forces ◽  
1959 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 228-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Lee ◽  
E. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Future Fertility ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals Atmospheric Retrieval Sensitivity Analysis for an Earth-Twin in the Future LIFE Mission

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Björn S. Konrad ◽  
Eleonora Alei ◽  
Sascha P. Quanz ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals Einfluss der Bildung der Frau auf das Zweitgeburtsverhalten in Polen während der sozioökonomischen Transformation

2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 295-318
Author(s):  
Paulina Galezewska
Keyword(s):  
Rapid Decline ◽  
Family Policies ◽  
Second Child ◽  
Highly Educated ◽  
First Child ◽  
Future Fertility ◽  
Women's Lives ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Piecewise Exponential ◽  
University Degree

Since the collapse of state socialism in Poland in 1989, a rapid decline in fertility has been observed in parallel with educational expansion. Polish women with university degree tend to postpone their childbearing, and often have fewer children than their less educated counterparts. Thus, an increase in the number of highly educated women may have an impact on the future fertility development of a country. The birth of a first child is fairly universal in women’s lives in Poland, hence, this study focuses on the transition to the second child. Using the Employment, Family and Educational Survey (2006), several piecewise exponential models were estimated. The analyses reveal a strong negative effect of women’s education on the second birth risk. We conclude that Polish women with university degree are exposed to higher opportunity costs, and these are not addressed adequately by existing family policies and labour market regulations related to working mothers. Zusammenfassung In Polen wurde nach dem Systemumbruch im Jahr 1989 ein starker Geburteneinbruch beobachtet, der nahezu parallel von einer Bildungsexpansion begleitet wurde. Der schnell steigende Anteil junger hoch gebildeter Frauen sollte sich stark auf die zukünftige Fertilitätsentwicklung Polens auswirken, denn Akademikerinnen bekommen nicht nur später, sondern auch weniger Kinder. Die Studie lenkt den Fokus auf das Zweitgeburtsverhalten, da die Geburt des ersten Kindes in Polen weiterhin als universell gilt. Die empirischen Ergebnisse auf Basis des Employment, Family and Education Surveys (2006) zeigen eine mit steigendem Bildungsniveau signifikant sinkende Zweitgeburtenrate. Hochschulabsolventinnen sind in Polen mit hohen Opportunitätskosten konfrontiert, die nur eingeschränkt von den geltenden familienpolitischen Maßnahmen und Arbeitsmarktregulierungen minimiert werden.

scholarly journals Changes in European Welfare State Regimes as a Response to Fertility Trends: Family Policy Perspective

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 50
Author(s):  
Suzana Bornarova ◽  
Natasha Bogoevska ◽  
Svetlana Trbojevik
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Family Policy ◽  
Welfare States ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Family Policies ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
The Family ◽  
Employment Of Women

Following 1945, that is the Second World War, Europe faced a huge demographic increase in the number of births, known as baby-boom. Encouraged by the improvement of the living conditions after the devastating war, the return of the optimism, opening of the employment opportunities and the renewal of the idea about the family, this demographic trend entailed the so-called familism tide. In the mid 1960-ies however, demographic indicators in almost all European countries began to change suddenly. Massive development of contraception, increased birth control and family planning, as well as higher employment of women and their integration in the labour market, took place. As a result of these trends, in the 1970-ties European countries faced a considerable drop in fertility rates. This trend reached its peak during 1970-1980-ties when a dramatic drop in fertility rates took place, known as baby-bust. As a consequence, almost everywhere in Europe, the fertility rate dropped below the level needed for simple population reproduction or below 2.1 children per woman. Several related trends also contributed to the change in the demographic picture of Europe, such as: dropping birthrates, shrinking of the population, delay in births (increase in the age of birth of the first child), increase in the number of one-child families, as well as growth in the number of couples without children (universality of births is no longer present – at least 1 child per family). Similar trends are evidenced in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CIE), with one considerable difference – they took place around a decade later compared to the developed European countries. One common characteristic which shaped the demographic changes in CIE countries was the fact that they occurred simultaneously with the radical changes of the societal system from socialism towards democracy in the 1990-ties. Due to this, demographic changes in CIE countries gain in weight, are furthermore under the influence of the transitional processes and thus differ considerably compared to those in the developed countries. The differences are heavily attributable to two sets of factors: a) different institutional settings, especially in the family policies related to employment of women and child raising; and b) different effects of these family policies upon fertility rates and participation of women in the labour market. Given the above demographic trends, welfare states in Europe, adjust accordingly, predominantly through the policies and measures of family policy as one of the social policy domains. Following a detailed statistical analysis of demographic indicators in Europe, this paper will produce an analysis of the family policy responses to demographic trends based on the Esping-Andersens’ classification of welfare states: universal welfare states (Nordic countries); conservative welfare states (Continental European countries); liberal social states (Anglo-Saxon countries) and South-European social states (Mediterranean countries). A specific focus in the paper will be also given to the demographic trends and corresponding family policy developments in the Republic of Macedonia, as a country of South Europe. Cross-cutting issues in the analysis of the family policy models will be: the extent to which family policies are gender-neutral or gender-specific (are they women-friendly and do they promote active fatherhood?), measures for harmonization of work and family life (are women appropriately supported in performing their roles of mothers and active participants in the labour market at the same time) and the scope in which family policy is being designed to serve the purposes of population policy (how the concern and the interest of the state to increase fertility rates shapes family policy?).

scholarly journals The implementation of a Fast-Folding Algorithm in the PALFA survey

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (S337) ◽  
pp. 388-389
Author(s):  
E. Parent ◽  
V. M. Kaspi ◽  
S. M. Ransom ◽  
C. Patel ◽  
M. Krasteva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Galactic Plane ◽  
Radio Pulsar ◽  
Radio Pulsars ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Folding Algorithm ◽  
The Future ◽  
Blind Search

AbstractThe PALFA survey, the most sensitive blind search for radio pulsars, has now discovered 180 pulsars in the Galactic Plane, the vast of which have periods shorter than 2 seconds. One reason that pulsar surveys may miss long-period radio pulsars is the strong effect of red noise at low modulation frequencies. It is possible to address this reduction in sensitivity by using a Fast-Folding Algorithm (FFA). We have adapted this algorithm for radio pulsar searching and applied it to PALFA observations. A sensitivity analysis of the algorithm has been conducted using synthetic pulsar signals injected in real observational data and this study shows that the FFA improves the PALFA survey sensitivity, as reported in Lazarus et al.(2015), by at least a factor of two at periods of ~6 sec, implying that the PALFA survey should discover more long-period radio pulsars in the future.

Understanding dystocia in the field: part 1

UK-Vet Equine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-62
Author(s):  
Rory Gormley
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Physiological Processes ◽  
Future Fertility ◽  
The Future

Difficult births (dystocias) are not uncommon for horses and present significant risks to mare and foal, with potentially fatal consequences. A sound understanding of the normal physiological processes before and during parturition are essential to enable vets to quickly identify when these processes deviate from the norm. To rapidly diagnose the cause of the dystocia, the attending obstetrician should be assured in their approach; resolute in their decision making; and prompt in action if the risks of mare and foal morbidity and mortality are to be managed. Constructive communication with the mare's owners is essential to allow adequate planning to prioritise the outcome. The future fertility of the mare is imperative in many cases yet is often overlooked. The obstetrician must be dynamic and be prepared to alter their approach when necessary. This review outlines the causes of dystocia and the recommended approaches to resolution.

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