scholarly journals Predicting the German Economy: Headline Survey Indices Under Test

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Lehmann ◽  
Magnus Reif
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
German Economy ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
European Research ◽  
Out Of Sample

AbstractThis analysis investigates the predictive power of the headline indices of the four most important German survey providers. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of total and private sector gross domestic product and growth of gross value added in both the manufacturing and the service sector. All providers publish valuable leading indicators for both GDP measures, with some advantages for the ifo indicators and the Economic Sentiment Indicator, respectively. For the manufacturing sector, indicators provided by the ifo Institute are clearly superior. For the service sector, all indicators prove to have a similar nowcasting performance, whereas the Economic Sentiment Services of the Centre for European Research is preferable for one quarter-ahead predictions.

Implementation of lean in IT SME company: an Italian case

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Torri ◽  
Kaustav Kundu ◽  
Stefano Frecassetti ◽  
Matteo Rossini
Keyword(s):  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Lean Implementation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Lean Practices

Purpose In spite of huge advancement of Lean in the manufacturing sector, its advantage in the service sector is not fully investigated. The purpose of this paper is to cover this gap in particular for the information technology (IT) sector through the implementation of the Lean philosophy in a small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME), operating in the IT sector. Design/methodology/approach A case study is conducted and following the A3 model, Lean is deployed in the case company. Data were collected through on-site interviews, waste sources were identified and then countermeasures for their reduction were proposed and adopted. Findings This study reveals that the implementation of the Lean practices in an SME operating in the IT sector offers good operative and financial results, thanks to the higher productivity obtained through the reduction of non-value-added activities. Research limitations/implications This paper reports a single case study, not enough to generalize the results. Moreover, more Lean tools and practices should be tested in IT companies to assess their effectiveness. Practical implications This paper increments the knowledge base for the application of Lean and A3 model outside the manufacturing industry. This paper should assist practitioners and consultants who have the desire to understand a better way of Lean implementation in fast-growing IT industry and in SME. Originality/value Research on Lean implementation in an SME company and in IT sector is scarce. This study aims to assess the efficiency of the adoption of Lean practices following the A3 model. The results could be highly valuable for similar companies (dimension or sector), especially those that are facing transition situations in terms of size and at the same time want to improve their operations performance, efficiency and avoid waste.

scholarly journals Forecasting Macedonian Business Cycle Turning Points Using Qual Var Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 61-78
Author(s):  
Magdalena Petrovska ◽  
Aneta Krstevska ◽  
Nikola Naumovski
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract This paper aims at assessing the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary of the current economic conditions. We further proceed analyzing how well an extended set of indicators performs in forecasting turning points of the Macedonian business cycle by employing the Qual VAR approach of Dueker (2005). In continuation, we evaluate the quality of the selected indicators in pseudo-out-of-sample context. The results show that the use of survey-based indicators as a complement to macroeconomic data work satisfactory well in capturing the business cycle developments in Macedonia.

scholarly journals Potensi dan Prospek Industri Kecil

The Winners ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 164
Author(s):  
Dedi Walujadi
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Manufacturing Industries ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Main Contributor ◽  
Economic Contribution

The manufacturing sector has retained its importance in the Indonesian Economy. Since 1990 it has surpassed the agricultural sector as the main contributor to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Article analyses strenght and weaknesses of the small-scale manufacturing industries (SSIs). By ussing the economic contribution approach and the framework proposed by Pyke, based on 2003 data provided by BPS statistics Indonesiathe study investigates the SSIs performance in relation to their economic contribution, the collective efficiency, constant innovation and economic ofscope strategy. It is conluded that Pyke’s framework was not apply since SSIs facing lack of social infrastructures and knowledge, and mostly less educated compared with the larger one. The empirical evidence also shows that in terms of value added and labor absorption, its share less than 1 % and 16 % respectively of the whole of industrialsectors. 

scholarly journals Die invloed van inligtingstegnologie op werkverskaffing in die Suid-Afrikaanse finansiële sektor

1992 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-20
Author(s):  
Gideon S. Hom ◽  
Charles V.R. Wait
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
South African ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Telecommunication Networks ◽  
Production Functions ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Building Society ◽  
Building Societies

The influence or information technology on the provision of employment in the South African financial sectorThe higher levels of productivity in the manufacturing sector, as a result of the automation and other significant changes in production functions, often lead to fears of higher levels of unemployment, as certain types of labour could become redundant. The application of information technology in the form of computers, data banks and telecommunication networks has, to a great extent, contributed to the automation of routine functions, as well as to the integration of various production functions. The danger exists that a great number of workers released from the manufacturing sector are not always trained and suitable for employment in the service sector. In addition, there may not be sufficient employment opportunities to accommodate these workers. The influence of information technology on employment should, however, be considered in terms of the net effect of the three distinguishing effects of information technology on an economy, namely the process, product and organization effects. In South Africa, employment and value added increased in the building society and banking fields during the period 1980-89. Those increases are attributed specifically to the product effect. Since the eighties, banks, building societies and insurance companies have all started to market new and more products that are directly linked to information technology.

A new route to the rapid growth of the service sector: rise of the standard of living

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Harutaka Takahashi ◽  
Kansho Piotr Otsubo
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Rapid Growth ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Standard Of Living ◽  
Living Standard ◽  
Intensity Effect

Abstract In the present study, we set up a continuous-time two-sector optimal growth model with services and manufacturing goods and then examine structural change: the rapid growth of the service sector. Earlier studies of structural changes can be separated into two categories: preference-driven and technology-driven. Here we introduce a new and distinct category of structural change: consumption externality identified as rise of the living standard. A key assumption is that (1) a representative consumer has a non-homothetic Stone–Geary type utility function with respect to manufacturing goods and that (2) its subsistence level will be regarded as the standard of living and will be affected by the average consumption of manufacturing goods, which also affects the consumption level of services. We also assume that the manufacturing sector is more capital-intensive than the service sector, which takes an important role in our proofs. Results show that a steady state equilibrium exists that is globally stable as well as saddle-point stable. Then, given certain production parameters in a steady state, there exists optimal steady state where the value-added and employment shares by service sector will dominate those of the manufacturing sector under the condition that external effects of the service sector dominates capital-intensity effect of the manufacturing sector. In other words, through the transition process, the service sector will dominate the manufacturing sector in the steady state.

Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles. An Assessment of Properties / Frühindikatoren der deutschen Konjunktur. Eine Beurteilung ihrer Eigenschaften

2002 ◽  
Vol 222 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrich Fritsche ◽  
Sabine Stephan
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Frequency Domain Analysis ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Reference Series ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
German Data

SummaryA reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time. (3) The inclusion of the indicator in out-of-sample forecasting procedures should improve the predictive power. Our analysis deals with tests for these requirements applied to German data. We used frequency domain analysis, different Granger-causality tests and out-of sample forecasts. Only few indicators passed all tests. Their inclusion into VAR-based forecasts improves the forecast in the very short run. Further research should concentrate on the unsolved problem of the prediction of business cycle turning points.

scholarly journals Financial Development and Manufacturing Performance: The Nigerian Case

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekundayo Mesagan ◽  
Ndubuisi Olunkwa ◽  
Ismaila Yusuf
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Capacity Utilization ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Manufacturing Performance ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Short Run

AbstractThe study focused on financial sector development and manufacturing performance in Nigeria over the period of 1981 to 2015. In the study, three indicators such as manufacturing capacity utilization, manufacturing output and manufacturing value added were employed to proxy manufacturing performance while money supply as a percentage of GDP, domestic credit to the private sector and liquidity ratio were employed to proxy financial development. The study observed that credit to the private sector and money supply positively but insignificantly enhanced capacity utilization and output, but negatively impacted value added of the manufacturing sector in the short run. There is slight improvement in the long where both money supply and credit to private sector exert positive impact manufactured output. Hence, it becomes crucial for commercial banks to make available certain percentage of their profits for industrial expansion in order to create linkages between both sectors.

scholarly journals The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 156 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Stuart
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Monetary Aggregates ◽  
Probit Models ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Business Course ◽  
Dynamic Probit Models

AbstractThis paper studies the predictive power for recessions of the slope of the Swiss term structure using monthly data for 1974–2017. Dynamic probit models indicate that the term structure contains information useful for predicting recessions for horizons up to 19 months. Whether the economy is currently in recession or not is also useful for forecasting recessions. These relationships prove stable over the sample. Robustness tests indicate that the KOF business course indicator and some monetary aggregates contain different information from the term structure which can improve the in- and out-of-sample fit of the model.

Enterprise Performance Analysis of the Selected Service Sector by Applying Modern Methods with an Emphasis on the Creation and Application of the Modified Creditworthy Model (MCWM)

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (17) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erika Onuferová ◽  
Veronika Čabinová
Keyword(s):  
Service Sector ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Future Success ◽  
Financial Growth ◽  
Net Assets ◽  
Third Dimension

The aim of presented paper was to create and subsequently apply the Modified 3D Creditworthy Model (MCWM) of performance reflecting sectoral characteristics and financial specificities of the selected sample of Slovak tour operators over the years 2013 – 2017. The intention of this research study was to implement the key financial indicators and appropriate prediction models into both dimensions of the traditional 2D Creditworthy Model of performance and to supplement its third dimension applying the selected modern assessment methods – the Economic Value Added and the Return On Net Assets as we consider them to be one of the most important indicators of future success and company's financial growth. This modification will help to better identify the current financial position of tour operators and more accurately identify causes that hinder the development of financial performance of the selected sample of enterprises. However, after adjusting the upper and lower quartile averages of a particular industry, this methodology is applicable in the wider context of enterprises, not only those operating in the tourism sector.

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