scholarly journals Modelling 60 years of glacier mass balance and runoff for Chhota Shigri Glacier, Western Himalaya, Northern India

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (240) ◽  
pp. 618-628 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARKUS ENGELHARDT ◽  
AL. RAMANATHAN ◽  
TRUDE EIDHAMMER ◽  
PANKAJ KUMAR ◽  
OSKAR LANDGREN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Western Himalaya ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Melt ◽  
Chhota Shigri Glacier

ABSTRACTGlacier mass balance and runoff are simulated from 1955 to 2014 for the catchment (46% glacier cover) containing Chhota Shigri Glacier (Western Himalaya) using gridded data from three regional climate models: (1) the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model v.4 (RCA4); (2) the REgional atmosphere MOdel (REMO); and (3) the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The input data are downscaled to the simulation grid (300 m) and calibrated with point measurements of temperature and precipitation. Additional input is daily potential global radiation calculated using a DEM at a resolution of 30 m. The mass-balance model calculates daily snow accumulation, melt and runoff. The model parameters are calibrated with available mass-balance measurements and results are validated with geodetic measurements, other mass-balance model results and run-off measurements. Simulated annual mass balances slightly decreased from −0.3 m w.e. a−1 (1955–99) to −0.6 m w.e. a−1 for 2000–14. For the same periods, mean runoff increased from 2.0 m3 s−1 (1955–99) to 2.4 m3 s−1 (2000–14) with glacier melt contributing about one-third to the runoff. Monthly runoff increases are greatest in July, due to both increased snow and glacier melt, whereas slightly decreased snowmelt in August and September was more than compensated by increased glacier melt.

scholarly journals Forcing a Distributed Glacier Mass Balance Model with the Regional Climate Model REMO. Part I: Climate Model Evaluation

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 1589-1606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven Kotlarski ◽  
Frank Paul ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model

Abstract A coupling interface between the regional climate model REMO and a distributed glacier mass balance model is presented in a series of two papers. The first part describes and evaluates the reanalysis-driven regional climate simulation that is used to force a mass balance model for two glaciers of the Swiss mass balance network. The detailed validation of near-surface air temperature, precipitation, and global radiation for the European Alps shows that the basic spatial and temporal patterns of all three parameters are reproduced by REMO. Compared to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset, the Alpine mean temperature is underestimated by 0.34°C. Annual precipitation shows a positive bias of 17% (30%) with respect to the uncorrected gridded ALP-IMP (CRU) dataset. A number of important and systematic model biases arise in high-elevation regions, namely, a negative temperature bias in winter, a bias of seasonal precipitation (positive or negative, depending on gridbox altitude and season), and an underestimation of springtime and overestimation of summertime global radiation. These can be expected to have a strong effect on the simulated glacier mass balance. It is recommended to account for these shortcomings by applying correction procedures before using the RCM output for subsequent mass balance modeling. Despite the obvious model deficiencies in high-elevation regions, the new interface broadens the scope of application of glacier mass balance models and will allow for a straightforward assessment of future climate change impacts.

scholarly journals Mass-balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier

2013 ◽  
Vol 59 (217) ◽  
pp. 845-858 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Gurgiser ◽  
Thomas Mölg ◽  
Lindsey Nicholson ◽  
Georg Kaser
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
The Other ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Ablation Zone ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Cumulative Mass

AbstractWe explore the small-scale spatial and temporal transferability of model parameters between two points in the ablation zone of tropical Glaciar Shallap, Cordillera Blanca, Peru (9°S, −77° W; ∼4800 m a.s.l.) in order to provide a robust assessment of the performance of a process-based glacier mass-balance model. Relative surface height change is calculated at hourly time-steps, and cumulative values are compared to surface height measurements made at irregular intervals (14–64 days) over the course of two continuous hydrological years (August 2006–August 2008). Best-performing parameter combinations were determined for each point from the outcome of 1000 model simulations for which parameters were varied randomly within a defined range. With these parameter combinations measurements for a specific location and time-span are well reproduced. Transferring the parameter combination as optimized for one location to the other location in the ablation zone increases the errors of modeled cumulative mass balance by 5–1326 mm ice eq.a−1. Transferring the parameter combinations as optimized for one year to the other year increases the modeled errors in cumulative mass balance by 18–3179 mm ice eq.a−1. Model errors generally increase during periods with frequent snowfall and snow cover. This could reflect either the inherent difficulty of modeling complex snow processes, or the inability of the model to correctly capture the pattern of albedo evolution at this site. The magnitude of errors associated with parameter transfer in space and time highlights the need for improving model performance for robust climatological and/or hydrological analyses on tropical glaciers.

scholarly journals Meltwater runoff in a changing climate (1951–2099) at Chhota Shigri Glacier, Western Himalaya, Northern India

2017 ◽  
Vol 58 (75pt1) ◽  
pp. 47-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Engelhardt ◽  
Paul Leclercq ◽  
Trude Eidhammer ◽  
Pankaj Kumar ◽  
Oskar Landgren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Western Himalaya ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Chhota Shigri Glacier ◽  
Meltwater Runoff ◽  
Rcp 8.5

ABSTRACTMeltwater runoff in the catchment area containing Chhota Shigri glacier (Western Himalaya) is simulated for the period 1951–2099. The applied mass-balance model is forced by downscaled products from four regional climate models with different horizontal resolution. For the future climate scenarios we use high resolution time series of 5 km grid spacing, generated using the newly developed Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model. The meteorological input is downscaled to 300 m horizontal resolution. The use of an ice flow model provides annually updated glacier area for the mass-balance calculations. The mass-balance model calculates daily snow accumulation, melt, runoff, as well as the individual runoff components (glacial melt, snowmelt and rain). The resulting glacier area decreases by 35% (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario) to 70% (RCP 8.5 scenario) by 2099 relative to 2000. The average annual mass balance over the whole model period (1951–2099) was –0.4 (±0.3) m w.e. a–1. Average annual runoff does not differ substantially between the two climate scenarios. However, for the years after 2040 our results show a shift towards earlier snowmelt onset that increases runoff in May and June, and reduced glacier melt that decreases runoff in August and September. This shift is much stronger pronounced in the RCP 8.5 scenario.

scholarly journals Development of a Water and Enthalpy Budget-based Glacier mass balance Model (WEB-GM) and its preliminary validation

2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 3146-3178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baohong Ding ◽  
Kun Yang ◽  
Wei Yang ◽  
Xiaobo He ◽  
Yingying Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Preliminary Validation

scholarly journals Solar radiation, cloudiness and longwave radiation over low-latitude glaciers: implications for mass-balance modelling

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (190) ◽  
pp. 292-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Mölg ◽  
Nicolas J. Cullen ◽  
Georg Kaser
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Peruvian Andes ◽  
Tropical Glaciers ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Radiation Parameterizations

AbstractBroadband radiation schemes (parameterizations) are commonly used tools in glacier mass-balance modelling, but their performance at high altitude in the tropics has not been evaluated in detail. Here we take advantage of a high-quality 2 year record of global radiation (G ) and incoming longwave radiation (L ↓) measured on Kersten Glacier, Kilimanjaro, East Africa, at 5873 m a.s.l., to optimize parameterizations of G and L ↓. We show that the two radiation terms can be related by an effective cloud-cover fraction neff , so G or L ↓ can be modelled based on neff derived from measured L ↓ or G, respectively. At neff = 1, G is reduced to 35% of clear-sky G, and L ↓ increases by 45–65% (depending on altitude) relative to clear-sky L ↓. Validation for a 1 year dataset of G and L ↓ obtained at 4850 m on Glaciar Artesonraju, Peruvian Andes, yields a satisfactory performance of the radiation scheme. Whether this performance is acceptable for mass-balance studies of tropical glaciers is explored by applying the data from Glaciar Artesonraju to a physically based mass-balance model, which requires, among others, G and L ↓ as forcing variables. Uncertainties in modelled mass balance introduced by the radiation parameterizations do not exceed those that can be caused by errors in the radiation measurements. Hence, this paper provides a tool for inclusion in spatially distributed mass-balance modelling of tropical glaciers and/or extension of radiation data when only G or L ↓ is measured.

scholarly journals The response of two Icelandic glaciers to climatic warming computed with a degree-day glacier mass-balance model coupled to a dynamic glacier model

1997 ◽  
Vol 43 (144) ◽  
pp. 321-327 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tómas Jóhannesson
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Warming Rate

AbstractA degree-day glacier mass-balance model is coupled to a dynamic glacier model for temperate glaciers. The model is calibrated for two outlet glaciers from the Hofsjökull ice cap in central Iceland. It is forced with a climate scenario that has recently been defined for the Nordic countries for the purpose of outlining the hydrological consequences of future greenhouse warming. The scenario for Iceland specifies a warming rate of 0.25°C per decade in mid-summer and 0.35°C per decade in mid-winter with a sinusoidal variation through the year. The volume of the glaciers is predicted to decrease by approximately 40% over the next century, and the glaciers essentially disappear during the next 200 years. Runoff from the area that is presently covered by the glaciers is predicted to increase by approximately 0.5 m a−1 30 years from now due to the reduction in the volume of the glaciers. The runoff increase reaches a flat maximum of 1.5–2.0 m a−1 100–150 years from now and levels off after that. The predicted runoff increase leads to a significant increase in the discharge of rivers fed by meltwater from the outlet glaciers of the ice cap and may have important consequences for the operation and planning of hydroelectric power plants in Iceland.

scholarly journals Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 447-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Machguth ◽  
R. S. Purves ◽  
J. Oerlemans ◽  
M. Hoelzle ◽  
F. Paul
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Uncertainty Assessment ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Order Estimate ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Data Sets

Abstract. By means of Monte Carlo simulations we calculated uncertainty in modelled cumulative mass balance over 400 days at one particular point on the tongue of Morteratsch Glacier, Switzerland, using a glacier energy balance model of intermediate complexity. Before uncertainty assessment, the model was tuned to observed mass balance for the investigated time period and its robustness was tested by comparing observed and modelled mass balance over 11 years, yielding very small deviations. Both systematic and random uncertainties are assigned to twelve input parameters and their respective values estimated from the literature or from available meteorological data sets. The calculated overall uncertainty in the model output is dominated by systematic errors and amounts to 0.7 m w.e. or approximately 10% of total melt over the investigated time span. In order to provide a first order estimate on variability in uncertainty depending on the quality of input data, we conducted a further experiment, calculating overall uncertainty for different levels of uncertainty in measured global radiation and air temperature. Our results show that the output of a well calibrated model is subject to considerable uncertainties, in particular when applied for extrapolation in time and space where systematic errors are likely to be an important issue.

scholarly journals Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Machguth ◽  
R. S. Purves ◽  
J. Oerlemans ◽  
M. Hoelzle ◽  
F. Paul
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Uncertainty Assessment ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Order Estimate ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Data Sets

Abstract. By means of Monte Carlo simulations we calculated uncertainty in modelled cumulative mass balance over 400 days at one particular point on the tongue of Morteratsch Glacier, Switzerland, using a glacier energy balance model of intermediate complexity. Before uncertainty assessment, the model was tuned to observed mass balance for the investigated time period and its robustness was tested by comparing observed and modelled mass balance over 11 years, yielding very small deviations. Both systematic and random uncertainties are assigned to twelve input parameters and their respective values estimated from the literature or from available meteorological data sets. The calculated overall uncertainty in the model output is dominated by systematic errors and amounts to 0.7 m w.e. or approximately 10% of total melt over the investigated time span. In order to provide a first order estimate on variability in uncertainty depending on the quality of input data, we conducted a further experiment, calculating overall uncertainty for different levels of uncertainty in measured global radiation and air temperature. Our results show that the output of a well calibrated model is subject to considerable uncertainties, in particular when applied for extrapolation in time and space where systematic errors are likely to be an important issue.

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