The Application of a Genetic Algorithm to the Optimization of a Mesoscale Model for Emergency Response

Besides solving the equations of momentum, heat, and moisture transport on the model grid, mesoscale weather models must account for subgrid-scale processes that affect the resolved model variables. These are simulated with model parameterizations, which often rely on values preset by the user. Such ‘free’ model parameters, along with others set to initialize the model, are often poorly constrained, requiring that a user select each from a range of plausible values. Finding the values to optimize any forecasting tool can be accomplished with a search algorithm, and one such process – the genetic algorithm (GA) – has become especially popular. As applied to modeling, GAs represent a Darwinian process – an ensemble of simulations is run with a different set of parameter values for each member, and the members subsequently judged to be most accurate are selected as ‘parents’ who pass their parameters onto a new generation. At the Department of Energy’s Savannah River Site in South Carolina, we are applying a GA to the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale weather model, which supplies input to a model to simulate the dispersion of an airborne contaminant as part of the site’s emergency response preparations. An ensemble of forecasts is run each day, weather data are used to ‘score’ the individual members of the ensemble, and the parameters from the best members are used for the next day’s forecasts. As meteorological conditions change, the parameters change as well, maintaining a model configuration that is best adapted to atmospheric conditions.

Updated national emission inventory and comparison with the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR): case of Lebanon

Physically based computational modeling is an effective tool for estimating and predicting the spatial distribution of pollutant concentrations in complex environments. A detailed and up-to-date emission inventory is one of the most important components of atmospheric modeling and a prerequisite for achieving high model performance. Lebanon lacks an accurate inventory of anthropogenic emission fluxes. In the absence of a clear emission standard and standardized activity datasets in Lebanon, this work serves to fill this gap by presenting the first national effort to develop a national emission inventory by exhaustively quantifying detailed multisector, multi-species pollutant emissions in Lebanon for atmospheric pollutants that are internationally monitored and regulated as relevant to air quality. Following the classification of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), we present the methodology followed for each subsector based on its characteristics and types of fuels consumed. The estimated emissions encompass gaseous species (CO, NOx, SO2), and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10). We compare totals per sector obtained from the newly developed national inventory with the international EDGAR inventory and previously published emission inventories for the country for base year 2010 presenting current discrepancies and analyzing their causes. The observed discrepancies highlight the fact that emission inventories, especially for data-scarce settings, are highly sensitive to the activity data and their underlying assumptions, and to the methodology used to estimate the emissions.

Interaction between cloud-radiation, atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics based on observational data from GoAmazon 2014/15 and a Cloud Resolving Model

Observational meteorological data from the field experiment GoAmazon 2014/15 and data from numerical simulations with the Cloud-Resolving Model (CRM) called System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) are used to study the interaction between the cloudiness-radiation and the atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics variables for a site located in the central Amazon region (−3.2° S, −60.6° W) during the wet and dry periods. The main aims are to (a) analyze the temporal series of the integrated cloud fraction, precipitation rate and downward shortwave flux; and (b) to determine the relationship between the integrated cloud fraction, radiative fluxes, and large-scale variable anomalies as a function of the previous day's average. The temporal series of the integrated cloud fraction, precipitation rate and downward shortwave flux from SAMS simulations showed physical consistency with the observations from GoAmazon 2014/15. Shallow and deep convection clouds show to have meaningful impact on radiation fluxes in the Amazon region during wet and dry periods. Anomalies of large-scale variables (relative to the previous day's average) are physically associated with cloud formation, evolution and dissipation. SAM consistently simulated these results, where the cloud fraction vertical profile shows a pattern very close to the observed data (cloud type). Additionally, the integrated cloud fraction and large-scale variable anomalies, as a function of the previous day's average, have a good correlation. These results suggest that the memory of the large-scale dynamics from previous day can be used to estimate the clouds fraction. As well as the water content, which is a variable of the cloud itself. In general, the SAM satisfactorily simulated the interaction between cloud-radiation and dynamic and thermodynamic variables of the atmosphere during the periods of this study, being indicated to obtain atmospheric variables that are impossible to obtain in an observational way.

The effect of Indian Ocean warming on the Indian Monsoon: An atmospheric model study

The results from an atmospheric modeling study using the Florida State University Global Spectral Model indicate that, in years such as 1997 when the Indian Ocean SSTs are large, the Indian monsoon exhibits a typical behaviour. During that year, an extended shift of the tropical convergence zone towards the north played a role in the regional Hadley cell anomalies. The local warm boundary conditions in the northwestern Indian Ocean aided the high rainfall anomaly in Western India during the model simulations. The upper level structure, exhibited in terms of the global velocity potential is slightly shifted east for 1997, but with the correct sign. This structure shows regions of convergence over Indonesia where severe drought had occurred. The performance of the model rainfall over the equatorial Indian Ocean was uncanny for most seasons studied. Overall, the model performed best over the oceanic regions.

Distinguishing Time Scales of Katabatic Flow in Complex Terrain

To examine spatial and temporal scales of katabatic flow, a distributed temperature sensing (DTS) optical fiber was deployed 2 km down a mild slope irregularly interrupted by small-scale drainage features as part of the Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observation (MATERHORN) experiment conducted at the U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground, Utah. The fiber was suspended at two heights near the surface, enabling measurement of variations in lapse rate near the surface at meter-scale spatial resolution with 1-min temporal resolution. Experimental results derived from the DTS and tower-mounted instrumentation indicate that airflow through small-scale drainage features regulated the local cooling rate whereas topographic slope and distance along the drainage strongly influenced the larger-scale cooling rate. Empirical results indicate that local cooling rate decays exponentially after local sunset and basin-wide cooling rate decreases linearly with time. The difference in the functional form for cooling rate between local and basin-wide scales suggests that small-scale features have faster timescales that manifests most strongly shortly after local sunset. More generally, partitioning drainage flow by scale provides insight and a methodology for improved understanding of drainage flow in complex terrain.