Accountability for the Local Economy at All Levels of Government in United States Elections

2020 ◽  
Vol 114 (3) ◽  
pp. 660-676
Author(s):  
JUSTIN DE BENEDICTIS-KESSNER ◽  
CHRISTOPHER WARSHAW
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Democratic Accountability ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Crucial Component ◽  
Multiple Levels ◽  
Election Results

Retrospective voting is a crucial component of democratic accountability. A large literature on retrospective voting in the United States finds that the president’s party is rewarded in presidential elections for strong economic performance and punished for weak performance. By contrast, there is no clear consensus about whether politicians are held accountable for the local economy at other levels of government, nor how voters react to the economy in a complex system of multilevel responsibility. In this study, we use administrative data on county-level economic conditions from 1969 to 2018 and election results across multiple levels of government to examine the effect of the local economy on elections for local, state, and federal offices in the United States. We find that the president’s party is held accountable for economic performance across nearly all levels of government. We also find that incumbents are held accountable for the economy in U.S. House and gubernatorial elections. Our findings have broad implications for literatures on representation, accountability, and elections.

Using Online Search Traffic to Predict US Presidential Elections

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (02) ◽  
pp. 271-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Granka
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
Vote Outcome ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
National Models ◽  
Election Results

Predictions of the United States presidential election vote outcome have been growing in scope and popularity in the academic realm. Traditional election forecasting models predict the United States presidential popular vote outcome on a national level based primarily on economic indicators (e.g., real income growth, unemployment), public approval ratings, and incumbency advantage. Many of these forecasting models are rooted in retrospective voting theory (Downs 1957; Fiorina 1981), essentially rewarding the party in office if times are good, punishing it if times are bad. These models have successfully predicted election results by modeling economic performance and incumbent approval ratings (Campbell 2012; Fair 1992; Fair 1996; Klarner 2012). For example, Abramowitz's (2004; 2005) “time for a change model” predicts election results using economic performance during the first half of the election year, the number of years the incumbent party has been in office, and presidential approval. For a full review of 13 presidential forecasts for the US 2012 election, seePS: Political Science and PoliticsOctober 2012 (45 (4): 610–75). Although national models are the most common, researchers have also started to use state-level predictions for presidential and congressional outcomes, with mostly positive success (Berry and Bickers 2012; Jerome and Jerome-Speziari 2012; Klarner 2012; Silver 2012). These models use similar predictors, such as incumbency, economic conditions, and home-state advantage, and predict the per-candidate percentage of popular vote. Unfortunately, with state-level models, many of the economic variables used in predicting national models are unavailable beyond 10–15 election cycles (compounded also by 1959 additions of Alaska and Hawaii), so state-level models naturally have a shorter period of analysis than do national models.

scholarly journals A Model of the Political Economy of the United States

1993 ◽  
Vol 87 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Alesina ◽  
John Londregan ◽  
Howard Rosenthal
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Choice Analysis ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Election Results

We develop and test a model of joint determination of economic growth and national election results in the United States. The formal model, which combines developments in the rational choice analysis of the behavior of economic agents and voters, leads to a system of equations in which the dependent variables are the growth rate and the vote shares in presidential and congressional elections. Our estimates support the theoretical claims that growth responds to unanticipated policy shifts and that voters use both on-year and midterm elections to balance the two parties. On the other hand, we find no support for “rational” retrospective voting. We do reconfirm, in a fully simultaneous framework, the “naive” retrospective voting literature's finding that the economy has a strong effect on presidential voting. We find congressional elections unaffected by the economy, except as transmitted by presidential coattails.

Environmental and Economic Performance of Hybrid Power-to-Liquid and Biomass-to-Liquid Fuel Production in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stewart A. Isaacs ◽  
Mark D. Staples ◽  
Florian Allroggen ◽  
Dharik S. Mallapragada ◽  
Christoph P. Falter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Liquid Fuel ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fuel Production ◽  
Hybrid Power

Legal basis of «democracy»

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Polischuk
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bill Of Rights ◽  
Legal Basis ◽  
Founding Fathers ◽  
Political Events ◽  
Capitol Hill ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Constitution ◽  
Election Results

The article examines the main political events that took place in the United States from the controversial election results to the tragic events on Capitol Hill for Trump supporters, which led to human casualties, finally untied the hands of the Democrats and allowed them to bury all the democratic values that America has taught the whole world since the adoption of the US Constitution and the Bill of Rights by the founding fathers of the state.

scholarly journals Trilha Verde da Maria Fumaça: patrimônio ferroviário e turismo no Vale do Jequitinhonha

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosalia Aparecida Moreira ◽  
Hugo Rodrigues Araujo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Qualitative Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Descriptive Case Study ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Structured Questionnaire

Em 1986, foi criado nos Estados Unidos a Rails-to-Trails Conservancy, entidade sem fins lucrativos com a missão de contribuir para conservação do patrimônio ferroviário, transformando os ramais abandonados em trilhas ferroviárias destinadas, exclusivamente, para caminhantes, ciclistas e cavaleiros. Com essa perspectiva, há 15 anos iniciou-se uma mobilização comunitária para transformar o antigo Ramal Ferroviário Corinto-Diamantina, localizado no Vale do Jequitinhonha/MG, na primeira trilha ferroviária do Brasil, denominada Trilha Verde da Maria Fumaça - TVMF. Além da conservação dos bens ferroviários, a TVMF busca a dinamização da economia local através do Turismo de Base Comunitária. Este artigo corresponde a um estudo de caso da TVMF, de caráter exploratório-descritivo. A pesquisa envolveu revisão bibliográfica e entrevista do gestor da ONG Caminhos da Serra, utilizando questionário semiestruturado. A análise qualitativa dos dados permitiu obter resultados que proporcionam o entendimento sobre a TVMF, contribuem para a abertura da discussão sobre trilhas ferroviárias no Brasil e fornecem informações para subsidiar aplicações práticas em outras ferrovias que se encontram abandonadas. Trilha Verde da Maria Fumaça: railroad heritage and tourism in the Vale do Jequitinhonha (Brazil). In 1986, the Rails-to-Trails Conservancy was created in the United States, a nonprofit organization with a mission to contribute to conservation of the railway heritage, turning extensions abandoned on rails trails, designed exclusively for walkers, cyclists and riders. With this perspective, 15 years ago a community began a mobilization to transform the old Railway Corinto-Diamantina, located in Vale do Jequitinhonha / MG, into the first rail trails in Brazil, called Trilha Verde da Maria Fumaça - TVMF. In addition to the conservation of rail assets, TVMF seeks to stimulate the local economy through the Community Based Tourism. This article is an exploratory and descriptive case study of TVMF. The research involved literature review and interview questions for the manager of the NGO Caminhos da Serra, by using semi-structured questionnaire. Through qualitative analysis of data it was possible to get results that provide an understanding of the TVMF, contribute to opening the discussion about rails trails in Brazil, and provide information to support practical applications in other railways that are abandoned. KEYWORDS: Railway Tourism; Sustainable Tourism; Rails Trails.

Cambodia in 2018

Asian Survey ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 170-176
Author(s):  
Aurel Croissant
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Eu

In 2018, ever-incumbent Prime Minister Hun Sen scored a landslide victory in the Cambodian general elections. Three factors in particular explain this outcome. First, the elimination of the main opposition party, whose strategy of a peaceful election boycott failed. Second, favorable economic conditions and government handouts of spoils to constituencies that traditionally supported the opposition. Third, the weak leverage of the United States and the EU, and the Hun Sen regime’s strong links with China.

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