Ethnicity and the Swing Vote in Africa’s Emerging Democracies: Evidence from Kenya

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 901-921 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Horowitz
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Emerging Democracies ◽  
Swing Vote ◽  
Swing Voters ◽  
Voting Intentions

Who are Africa’s swing voters? This article argues that in settings where ethnicity is politically salient, core and swing are defined by whether ethnic groups have a co-ethnic leader in the election. For members of ethnic groups with a co-ethnic in the race, there is typically less uncertainty about which party or candidate will best represent the group’s interests. For members of groups without a co-ethnic in the race, uncertainty is often greater, making these voters potentially more receptive to campaign persuasion and more likely to change voting intentions during the campaign. Consistent with these expectations, panel data from Kenya’s 2013 presidential election shows that voters from groups without a co-ethnic in the race were more than two and a half times more likely to change their voting intentions during the campaign period.

It’s their fault: Partisan attribution bias and its association with voting intentions

2021 ◽  
pp. 136843022199008
Author(s):  
Ethan Zell ◽  
Christopher A. Stockus ◽  
Michael J. Bernstein
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Ideology ◽  
Positive Outcomes ◽  
Opposing Party ◽  
Registered Voters ◽  
Attribution Bias ◽  
Democrats And Republicans ◽  
Voting Intentions

This research examined how people explain major outcomes of political consequence (e.g., economic growth, rising inequality). We argue that people attribute positive outcomes more and negative outcomes less to their own political party than to an opposing party. We conducted two studies, one before the 2016 U.S. presidential election ( N = 244) and another before the 2020 election ( N = 249 registered voters), that examined attributions across a wide array of outcomes. As predicted, a robust partisan attribution bias emerged in both studies. Although the bias was largely equivalent among Democrats and Republicans, it was magnified among those with more extreme political ideology. Further, the bias predicted unique variance in voting intentions and significantly mediated the link between political ideology and voting. In sum, these data suggest that partisan allegiances systemically bias attributions in a group-favoring direction. We discuss implications of these findings for emerging research on political social cognition.

Television News, Mexico's 2000 Elections and Media Effects in Emerging Democracies

2004 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHAPPELL LAWSON ◽  
JAMES A. McCANN
Keyword(s):  
Political Communication ◽  
Media Effects ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Television News ◽  
The Political ◽  
Panel Survey ◽  
Emerging Democracies ◽  
Presidential Election Of 2000 ◽  
Electoral Campaigns ◽  
Democratic Systems

On the basis of an analysis of a four-wave panel survey, we argue that exposure to television news had significant, substantial effects on both attitudes and vote choices in Mexico's watershed presidential election of 2000. These findings support the contention, implicit in some research on political communication, that the magnitude of media effects varies with certain features of the political context. In particular, television influence in electoral campaigns may be substantially larger in emerging democratic systems.

scholarly journals CATHOLICS AND THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-312
Author(s):  
Corwin Smidt
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Political Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
The Past ◽  
Swing Vote ◽  
Election Process

This article examines the role of Catholics within the 2020 presidential election in the United States. Although Catholics were once a crucial and dependable component of the Democratic Party’s electoral coalition, their vote in more recent years has been much more splintered. Nevertheless, Catholics have been deemed to be an important “swing vote” in American politics today, as in recent presidential elections they have aligned with the national popular vote. This article therefore focuses on the part that Catholics played within the 2020 presidential election process. It addresses the level of political change and continuity within the ranks of Catholics over the past several elections, how they voted in the Democratic primaries during the initial stages of the 2020 presidential election, their level of support for different candidates over the course of the campaign, how they ultimately came to cast their ballots in the 2020 election, and the extent to which their voting patterns in 2020 differed from that of 2016.

scholarly journals Awareness, Partisanship and the Post-Convention Bounce: A Memory-Based Model of Post-Convention Presidential Candidate Evaluations Part II—Empirical Results

2005 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin Grimmer
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Presidential Election Of 2000 ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Political Partisanship ◽  
The Us ◽  
Candidate Evaluations ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Using Data

This paper continues an analysis, begun in the December 2004 issue, that employed panel data to estimate the effects of awareness and political partisanship on post-convention candidate evaluations. The derivation of a theoretical framework was discussed in Part 1 [1]. Empirical results using data from the US presidential election of 2000 are discussed in the present article. We find that partisans of the opposite party were more resistant to the convention message of Bush than Gore, that awareness played a greater role in determining a predicted post-convention change for Gore, and that Gore’s message was received and accepted at a higher rate than Bush’s message.

Voter Volatility and Stability in Presidential Campaigns

2020 ◽  
pp. 65-93
Author(s):  
Andy Baker ◽  
Barry Ames ◽  
Lúcio Rennó
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
National Level ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Historical Background ◽  
Presidential Campaigns ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Preference Change ◽  
Horse Race ◽  
Socially Isolated

This chapter discusses novel descriptive facts on the dynamics of vote choice during presidential election campaigns. Using all available panel data from Brazil and Mexico (plus one from Argentina), it estimates the amount of preference change that occurred in 10 election campaigns. Between any two panel waves, 17 to 45 percent of voters switched across party lines. The chapter then depicts campaign volatility at the national level, using nationwide poll results to show how the horse race unfolded in the four main election cases (Brazil 2002, Brazil 2006, Brazil 2014, and Mexico 2006). These polling trends provide a brief historical background to the election cases and allow one to refute claims that the observed switching is based strictly on individual (and potentially socially isolated) calculations to avoid a wasted vote.

scholarly journals Winning on Social Media: Candidate Social-Mediated Communication and Voting During the 2016 US Presidential Election

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 205630511982613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Macafee ◽  
Bryan McLaughlin ◽  
Nathian Shae Rodriguez
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Mediation Effect ◽  
Mediated Communication ◽  
Political Candidates ◽  
Opposing Party ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Use Of Social Media ◽  
Voting Intentions

The 2016 US Presidential Election provided an opportunity to examine how political candidates’ use of social media can affect voting intentions. This study considers how political candidates can use social media to increase potential supporters’ perceptions that they will win the election, providing them extra motivation to go out and vote. Results from a two-wave survey provide evidence that following the in-group candidate (Trump or Clinton) relates to voting intentions through the increased belief that the candidate would win. However, this mediation effect occurs for only supporters of Trump or Clinton, but not for partisans of the opposing party.

A stochastic model of preference change and its application to 1992 presidential election panel data.

1999 ◽  
Vol 106 (2) ◽  
pp. 362-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Regenwetter ◽  
Jean-Claude Falmagne ◽  
Bernard Grofman
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Preference Change

Still Crazy after All These Years: The Polarized Politics of the Roberts Court Continue

The Forum ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cornell W. Clayton ◽  
Michael F. Salamone
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Federal Courts ◽  
The Past ◽  
Swing Vote ◽  
Electoral Regime ◽  
Roberts Court ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis article examines the Roberts Court and its relationship to the Obama administration following the 2014 midterm election. We begin by analyzing how the Court has been structured by electoral politics during the past 40 years, arguing that the Court’s more conservative, divided, and polarized decision-making reflects the politics of the post-1968 electoral regime. We then consider the impact of the 2014 midterm election. Republican control of the Senate will constrain the president’s ability to shape the federal courts going forward. It will most likely leave the composition of the current Supreme Court intact, leave Justice Kennedy as the pivotal swing vote, while elevating the Court as a campaign issue in the 2016 presidential election.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document