CATHOLICS AND THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

This article examines the role of Catholics within the 2020 presidential election in the United States. Although Catholics were once a crucial and dependable component of the Democratic Party’s electoral coalition, their vote in more recent years has been much more splintered. Nevertheless, Catholics have been deemed to be an important “swing vote” in American politics today, as in recent presidential elections they have aligned with the national popular vote. This article therefore focuses on the part that Catholics played within the 2020 presidential election process. It addresses the level of political change and continuity within the ranks of Catholics over the past several elections, how they voted in the Democratic primaries during the initial stages of the 2020 presidential election, their level of support for different candidates over the course of the campaign, how they ultimately came to cast their ballots in the 2020 election, and the extent to which their voting patterns in 2020 differed from that of 2016.

Ethnicity and the Swing Vote in Africa’s Emerging Democracies: Evidence from Kenya

Who are Africa’s swing voters? This article argues that in settings where ethnicity is politically salient, core and swing are defined by whether ethnic groups have a co-ethnic leader in the election. For members of ethnic groups with a co-ethnic in the race, there is typically less uncertainty about which party or candidate will best represent the group’s interests. For members of groups without a co-ethnic in the race, uncertainty is often greater, making these voters potentially more receptive to campaign persuasion and more likely to change voting intentions during the campaign. Consistent with these expectations, panel data from Kenya’s 2013 presidential election shows that voters from groups without a co-ethnic in the race were more than two and a half times more likely to change their voting intentions during the campaign period.

Iraqi Kurds likely to de-escalate political crisis

Subject Government crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan. Significance The long-awaited reshuffle of the coalition government in Iraqi Kurdistan began on October 11 as the dominant Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) announced that its major partner, the Gorran movement, would be ejected from the coalition government. Impacts Iraqi Kurdistan will remain a secure environment, with the parties retaining firm control of security organs and public assembly. Ties with Baghdad are unlikely to improve, meaning that Irbil will export Kirkuk oil and be economically independent through 2015-16. The PUK will have a 'swing vote' in the negotiations, and may use this to maintain its leverage over both the KDP and the KDP's opponents.

South Africa: The 2014 National and Provincial Elections

On 7 May 2014, South Africa held its fifth national and provincial elections since the end of apartheid in 1994. Despite a degree of discontent, the ANC remained firmly in power, receiving 62.15 per cent of the vote. Frustration about non-delivery of services, autocratic tendencies within the ruling party and widespread corrupt practices did not translate into substantially more votes for opposition parties, except in the Western Cape and Gauteng regions (and a swing vote from COPE to DA in Northern Cape). However, voter mobilisation seems to be stagnating and ANC breakaway parties are not faring particularly well. Twenty years after the end of apartheid, popular discontent with the ANC government has expressed itself in voting apathy, particularly among the “born-free” generation. Just as in 2004 and 2009, non-voters remain the largest group in the South African electorate, outnumbering even the ANC.

Still Crazy after All These Years: The Polarized Politics of the Roberts Court Continue

This article examines the Roberts Court and its relationship to the Obama administration following the 2014 midterm election. We begin by analyzing how the Court has been structured by electoral politics during the past 40 years, arguing that the Court’s more conservative, divided, and polarized decision-making reflects the politics of the post-1968 electoral regime. We then consider the impact of the 2014 midterm election. Republican control of the Senate will constrain the president’s ability to shape the federal courts going forward. It will most likely leave the composition of the current Supreme Court intact, leave Justice Kennedy as the pivotal swing vote, while elevating the Court as a campaign issue in the 2016 presidential election.