scholarly journals Dynamics of COVID-19 transmission including indirect transmission mechanisms: a mathematical analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Meiksin
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Major Health ◽  
Indirect Transmission ◽  
Transmission Mechanisms ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Counterfactual Model ◽  
Respiratory Droplets ◽  
Significant Spread

Abstract The outbreak of the novel coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 has raised major health policy questions and dilemmas. Whilst respiratory droplets are believed to be the dominant transmission mechanisms, indirect transmission may also occur through shared contact of contaminated common objects that is not directly curtailed by a lockdown. The conditions under which contaminated common objects may lead to significant spread of coronavirus disease 2019 during lockdown and its easing is examined using the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model with a fomite term added. Modelling the weekly death rate in the UK, a maximum-likelihood analysis finds a statistically significant fomite contribution, with 0.009 ± 0.001 (95% CI) infection-inducing fomites introduced into the environment per day per infectious person. Post-lockdown, comparison with the prediction of a corresponding counterfactual model with no fomite transmission suggests fomites, through enhancing the overall transmission rate, may have contributed to as much as 25% of the deaths following lockdown. It is suggested that adding a fomite term to more complex simulations may assist in the understanding of the spread of the illness and in making policy decisions to control it.

scholarly journals Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (14) ◽  
pp. 4964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Maugeri ◽  
Martina Barchitta ◽  
Sebastiano Battiato ◽  
Antonella Agodi
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Contact Precautions ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data

Italy was the first country in Europe which imposed control measures of travel restrictions, quarantine and contact precautions to tackle the epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all its regions. While such efforts are still ongoing, uncertainties regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and ascertainment of cases make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of restrictions. Here, we employed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model to assess SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, working on the number of reported patients in intensive care unit (ICU) and deaths in Sicily (Italy), from 24 February to 13 April. Overall, we obtained a good fit between estimated and reported data, with a fraction of unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases (18.4%; 95%CI = 0–34.0%) before 10 March lockdown. Interestingly, we estimated that transmission rate in the community was reduced by 32% (95%CI = 23–42%) after the first set of restrictions, and by 80% (95%CI = 70–89%) after those adopted on 23 March. Thus, our estimates delineated the characteristics of SARS-CoV2 epidemic before restrictions taking into account unreported data. Moreover, our findings suggested that transmission rates were reduced after the adoption of control measures. However, we cannot evaluate whether part of this reduction might be attributable to other unmeasured factors, and hence further research and more accurate data are needed to understand the extent to which restrictions contributed to the epidemic control.

The impact of the novel coronavirus on trauma and orthopaedics in the UK

2020 ◽  
Vol 81 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catrin Morgan ◽  
Aashish K Ahluwalia ◽  
Arash Aframian ◽  
Lily Li ◽  
Stephen Ng Man Sun
Keyword(s):  
Orthopaedic Surgery ◽  
Musculoskeletal Injury ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Front Line ◽  
Orthopaedic Patients ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Injury Burden ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
British Orthopaedic Association

At first glance, the novel coronavirus pandemic and orthopaedic surgery appear separate entities. Orthopaedic surgeons are not generally considered front-line staff in terms of the treatment of the disease that the novel coronavirus causes compared with anaesthetic and medical colleagues. However, the impact that the novel coronavirus is likely to have on the musculoskeletal injury burden and the morbidity associated with chronic musculoskeletal disease is significant. This article summarises the strategies currently being developed for the remodelling of orthopaedic services in the UK and the emergency British Orthopaedic Association Standards for Trauma and Orthopaedic guidelines released on 24 March 2020 in managing urgent orthopaedic patients during the novel coronavirus pandemic.

scholarly journals Analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic in french overseas department Mayotte based on a modified deterministic and stochastic SEIR model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Solym Mawaki Manou-Abi ◽  
Julien Balicchi
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Exponential Growth Phase ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Rate Parameter ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Stochastic Epidemic ◽  
Access To Water ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Death Cases

AbstractIn order to anticipate a future trends in the development of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic started early at march 13, in the french overseas department Mayotte, we consider in this paper a modified deterministic and stochastic epidemic model. The model divides the total population into several possible states or compartment: susceptible (S), exposed (E) infected and being under an incubation period, infected (I) being infectious, simple or mild removed RM, severe removed (including hospitalized) RS and death cases (D). The adding of the two new compartment RM and RS are driven by data which together replace the original R compartment in the classical SEIR model.We first fit the constant transmission rate parameter to the epidemic data in Mayotte during an early exponential growth phase using an algorithm with a package of the software R and based on a Maximum Likewood estimator. This allows us to predict the epidemic without any control in order to understand how the control measure and public policies designed are having the desired impact of controlling the epidemic. To do this, we introduce a temporally varying decreasing transmission rate parameter with a control or quarantine parameter q. Then we pointed out some values of q to maintain control which is critical in Mayotte given the fragility of its health infrastructure and the significant fraction of the population without access to water.

scholarly journals The Buffering Effects of Social Insurance for the Spread of Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4(I)) ◽  
pp. 19-27
Author(s):  
Moein Mirani Ahangarkolaei ◽  
Eser Demir ◽  
Tolga Constantinou ◽  
Mostafa Toranji ◽  
Tadashi Adino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Insurance ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Welfare Programs ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Low Educated

Global pandemics are associated with substantial losses of human capital. The best strategy of policymakers in public health before a population-wide vaccination is to reduce the outbreak of the disease and finding ways to alleviate its negative consequences in society. Previous studies show that welfare programs have externalities in unintended areas and for unplanned outcomes including a wide range of health outcomes. In this paper, we show that payments under the Unemployment Insurance (UI) program have the potential to reduce the spread of the novel coronavirus. Applying a difference-in-difference technique on monthly data of all US counties from January 2020 to January 2021, we document that the social insurance under the umbrella of UI payments can reduce the transmission rate of Covid-19. The results show heterogeneity across subsample with the largest effects among blacks, poor, and low educated regions

scholarly journals Genomic epidemiology of the first epidemic wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Palestine

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nouar Qutob ◽  
Zaidoun Salah ◽  
Damien Richard ◽  
Hisham Darwish ◽  
Husam Sallam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Public Health Burden ◽  
Genomic Epidemiology ◽  
Health Burden ◽  
The World ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Epidemic Wave

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the novel coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, continues to cause a significant public-health burden and disruption globally. Genomic epidemiology approaches point to most countries in the world having experienced many independent introductions of SARS-CoV-2 during the early stages of the pandemic. However, this situation may change with local lockdown policies and restrictions on travel, leading to the emergence of more geographically structured viral populations and lineages transmitting locally. Here, we report the first SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Palestine sampled from early March 2020, when the first cases were observed, through to August of 2020. SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Palestine fall across the diversity of the global phylogeny, consistent with at least nine independent introductions into the region. We identify one locally predominant lineage in circulation represented by 50 Palestinian SARS-CoV-2, grouping with genomes generated from Israel and the UK. We estimate the age of introduction of this lineage to 05/02/2020 (16/01/2020–19/02/2020), suggesting SARS-CoV-2 was already in circulation in Palestine predating its first detection in Bethlehem in early March. Our work highlights the value of ongoing genomic surveillance and monitoring to reconstruct the epidemiology of COVID-19 at both local and global scales.

scholarly journals The effects of the clinical symptoms pneumonia-confirmation strategy of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanjin Wang ◽  
Pei Wang ◽  
Shudao Zhang ◽  
Hao Pan
Keyword(s):  
Turning Point ◽  
Clinical Symptoms ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Start Date ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Motivated by the quick control in Wuhan, China, and the rapid spread in other countries of COVID-19, we investigate the questions that what is the turning point in Wuhan by quantifying the variety of basic reproductive number after the lockdown city. The answer may help the world to control the COVID-19 epidemic. A modified SEIR model is used to study the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan city. Our model is calibrated by the hospitalized cases. The modeling result gives out that the means of basic reproductive numbers are 1.5517 (95% CI 1.1716-4.4283) for the period from Jan 25 to Feb 11, 2020, and 0.4738(95% CI 0.0997-0.8370) for the period from Feb 12 to Mar 10. The transmission rate fell after Feb 12, 2020 as a result of China’s COVID-19 strategy of keeping society distance and the medical support from all China, but principally because of the clinical symptoms to be used for the novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) confirmation in Wuhan since Feb 12, 2020. Clinical diagnosis can quicken up NCP-confirmation such that the COVID-19 patients can be isolated without delay. So the clinical symptoms pneumonia-confirmation is the turning point of the COVID-19 battle of Wuhan. The measure of clinical symptoms pneumonia-confirmation in Wuhan has delayed the growth and reduced size of the COVID-19 epidemic, decreased the peak number of the hospitalized cases by 96% in Wuhan. Our modeling also indicates that the earliest start date of COVID-19 in Wuhan may be Nov 2, 2019.

Insights into pathophysiology, immune response and treatment of novel CoVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 189-197
Author(s):  
Manpreet Kaur ◽  
Rajinder Kaur ◽  
Reena Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Immune Response ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Human Lungs ◽  
Potential Vaccine ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Respiratory Droplets ◽  
Alveolar Edema

The beginning of year 2020 has brought with it mass destruction of mankind in form of novel coronavirus, named as CoVID-19. Declared as pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO), CoVID-19 has its origin in bats and pangolin from which it was probably transferred to human. Subsequent human to human transmission has been seen by respiratory droplets, fomites and oral-fecal route. The disease has caused widespread deaths in America, China, France and Italy followed by many European and Asian countries. CoVID-19 targets the human lungs and multiplies in alveoli using host machinery. Interstitial edema and alveolar edema at later stages cause alveoli collapse and difficulty in breathing. Severe cases may pave to systemic inflammatory response that has fatal response in body. Unfortunately, researchers are still struggling for potential vaccine or promising drug to combat the disease. WHO has issued guidelines suggesting regular hand washing, social distancing, wearing masks and quarantination as the best ways to prevent infection. This review gives an overview of the novel CoVID-19, conditions and immune response of human body related with it.

Gearing Up for a New “Pandemic” on the Eyes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Wang ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Video Games ◽  
Social Networking ◽  
Electronic Devices ◽  
Health Problems ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Uk

As the novel coronavirus continues ravaging communities worldwide, children and adults are spending more time than ever before on their electronic devices. Social networking websites, streaming platforms, and video games accumulate hours of usage. Students and employees are turning to remote learning and working. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, teleworking was already on the rise. In the US, the population of employees working remotely increased from 19.6% in 2003 to 24.1% in 2015, and in Sweden, the prevalence of working from home jumped from 5.9% in 1999 to 19.7% in 2012 (Feldstead & Henseke, 2017). Research conducted by the Trades Union Congress (TUC) reported that the teleworking rate in the UK increased by at least 20% over the past decade. There are currently no official reports on the increase of remote working in 2020. However, given the current pandemic situation along with the rapid advancement of technology each day, the numbers are expected to be at an all-time high. This may introduce the world to a new set of health problems: the Digital Eye Strain syndrome.

An Ayurvedic perspective of COVID 19: A Pandemic Situation

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 1627-1634
Author(s):  
Megha Dipak Rudey ◽  
Renu Rathi ◽  
Bharat Rathi
Keyword(s):  
Close Contact ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Unique Method ◽  
Poor Outcomes ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Respiratory Droplets ◽  
Transmission Of Disease

COVID-19 (Novel coronavirus or corona disease is spreading continuously all over the world. Overloading of ICU and health care system capacity. Along with age factor, community spread, vertical transmission of disease and clinical manifestation is the risk factor for the poor outcomes. The transmission is mainly through respiratory droplets when individual sneezes or coughs and also due to the close contact with an infected individual. Every researcher is in found of preventive measure, and in found of effective treatment for it. As the population is rushing to keep themselves protected from the infection, Ayurveda practitioners are in stress that the kalpas cited in Ayurveda literature will be helpful in strengthening the immunity and to fight against COVID-19. It is an attempt to study the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) it's clinical diagnostic and management in Ayurveda perspective. Various Samhitas, such as Charaka Samhita, Ashtanga Hridaya, Madhava Nidana  articles were referred for this study. According to Ayurveda literature, a unique method of impending a fresh identified illness Rather than centring on the bacteriological etiology, Ayurveda encirclements a universal skill for particularising the details of the illness at hand. Till the date, no vaccination is being found for COVID-19 yet, but the concepts given in Vedas have information about diagnostic and management. This attempt is to encourage Ayurveda  practitioners and young researcher’s to work on the formulations, which are cited thousands of years ago to breakdown the pathology of disease and work for the development and promotion of Ayurveda.

Current Insights into the Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and Its Homoeopathic Management

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (03) ◽  
pp. 171-179
Author(s):  
Sanjay Kumar Dey ◽  
Joy Kumar Dey ◽  
Hitaishi Sihag
Keyword(s):  
Close Contact ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Plasma Therapy ◽  
Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 ◽  
Clinical Research Trials ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Respiratory Droplets ◽  
Gelsemium Sempervirens

AbstractSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a new coronavirus strain that has not been ever found in humans before December 2019. Both the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case fatality rate and deaths per million population in the top 10 affected countries are increasing a lot due to ever-increasing number of new cases among countries facilitated by increased affinity of SARS-CoV-2 to bind human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors. While human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2 happens through close contact with an infected individual who spreads respiratory droplets through air or other means, its diagnosis relies mainly on detection of nucleic acid. Repurposing drugs such as dexamethasone, remdesivir, favipiravir and TMPRSS2 (trans membrane protease, serine 2) protease inhibitors have been shown to be effective for the treatment of COVID-19 with albeit requirement of further studies to conclude their complete effectiveness. Personal protective measures should be followed to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection. Additionally, hundreds of clinical trials of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 are undergoing, while plasma therapy from the COVID-19 survivors is also being tried to treat the severely affected patients. In addition to these aforementioned modern medicines and therapeutic approaches, homoeopathy also holds promising anti-viral effect as evident from its success against flu and other epidemics, historically. Therefore, present article provides a glimpse of advancements made in the area of homoeopathic ways of treating COVID-19 by summarising the recent homoeopathic clinical, research trials and future scopes of homoeopathy to combat the pandemic. After critical review of most of the ongoing or recently completed homoeopathic treatment efforts against SARS-CoV-2, it was identified that Bryonia alba, Arsenicum album and Gelsemium sempervirens are working best among homoeopathic medicines till now. These studies are also suggesting an increased application of these remedies to treat the current pandemic worldwide; therefore, more such studies are warranted. Those further research will pave the way to understand the mechanism of each of these homoeopathic drugs to cure COVID-19 facilitated by optimising their doses, effects and find the best among these multiple options in homoeopathic medicines for plausible mono- or combination therapies.

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