Disaggregating proportional multistate lifetables by population heterogeneity to estimate intervention impacts on inequalities

Background Simulation models can be used to quantify the projected health impact of interventions. Quantifying heterogeneity in these impacts, for example by socioeconomic status, is important to understand impacts on health inequalities. We aim to disaggregate one type of Markov macro-simulation model, the proportional multistate lifetable, ensuring that under business-as-usual (BAU) the sum of deaths across disaggregated strata in each time step returns the same as the initial non-disaggregated model. We then demonstrate the application by deprivation quintiles for New Zealand (NZ), for: hypothetical interventions (50% lower all-cause mortality, 50% lower coronary heart disease mortality) and a dietary intervention to substitute 59% of sodium with potassium chloride in the food supply. Methods We developed a disaggregation algorithm that iteratively rescales mortality, incidence and case-fatality rates by time-step of the model to ensure correct total population counts were retained at each step. To demonstrate the algorithm on deprivation quintiles in NZ, we used the following inputs: overall (non-disaggregated) all-cause mortality & morbidity rates, coronary heart disease incidence & case fatality rates; stroke incidence & case fatality rates. We also obtained rate ratios by deprivation for these same measures. Given all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates by deprivation quintile, we derived values for the incidence, case fatality and mortality rates for each quintile, ensuring rate ratios across quintiles and the total population mortality and morbidity rates were returned when averaged across groups. The three interventions were then run on top of these scaled BAU scenarios. Results The algorithm exactly disaggregated populations by strata in BAU. The intervention scenario life years and health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained differed slightly when summed over the deprivation quintile compared to the aggregated model, due to the stratified model (appropriately) allowing for differential background mortality rates by strata. Modest differences in health gains (HALYs) resulted from rescaling of sub-population mortality and incidence rates to ensure consistency with the aggregate population. Conclusion Policy makers ideally need to know the effect of population interventions estimated both overall, and by socioeconomic and other strata. We demonstrate a method and provide code to do this routinely within proportional multistate lifetable simulation models and similar Markov models.

Predictors of COVID-19 Fatality: A Worldwide Analysis of the Pandemic over Time and in Latin America

SARS-CoV-2 has infected over one hundred million people worldwide and has affected Latin America particularly severely in terms of both cases and deaths. This study aims to determine the association between SARS-CoV-2 testing and COVID-19 fatality rate worldwide over 8 months and to examine how this relationship differs between Latin America and all other countries. This cross-sectional study used March 2021 data from 169 countries. Multivariate regressions predicted COVID-19 fatality (outcome) from the number of SARS-CoV-2 tests (exposure), while controlling for other predictors. Results for March 2021 were compared to results from June 2020. Additionally, results for Latin America were also compared to all other countries except Latin American for March 2021. SARS-CoV-2 testing was associated with a significant decrease in COVID-19 fatality rate in both June 2020 and March 2021 (RR = 0.92; 95% CI 0.87–0.96 and RR = 0.86; 95% CI 0.74–1.00, respectively). SARS-CoV-2 testing was associated with a significant decrease in COVID-19 fatality rate in Latin American countries but not in all other countries (RR = 0.45; 95% CI 0.23–0.89 and RR = 0.95; 95% CI 0.82–1.11, respectively). However, the difference between the risk ratios for June 2020 and March 2021 and between the risk ratios for Latin America and all other countries were not statistically significant. Increased SARS-CoV-2 testing may be a significant predictor of lower COVID-19 case fatality rate, specifically in Latin American countries, due to the existence of a strong association, which may have driven the worldwide results.

The emergence of two distinct SARS-CoV-2 Gamma related variants during the second wave of COVID-19 in Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil and the rapid spread of P.1-like-II SARS-CoV-2 variant transmission and a regionalization in the Western region

COVID-19 has assumed significant and lasting proportions worldwide. Following initial cases in the Western mesoregion, the State of Santa Catarina (SC), southern Brazil, was heavily affected as a whole by the pandemic in early 2021. This study aimed to evaluate the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus spreading patterns in the SC state through March 2020 to April 2021 using genomic surveillance. During this period, 23 distinct variants, including two VOCs (Beta and Gamma) were identified, among which, the Gamma and related lineages were predominant in the second pandemic wave within SC. However, a regionalization of P.1-like-II in the Western region was observed, concomitant to the increase in cases, mortality, and case fatality rate (CFR) index. This is the first evidence of the regionalization of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the and highlight the importance of tracking variants, dispersion and their impact of SARS-CoV-2 on the public health system in Brazilian states.

Sequelae and Comorbidities of COVID-19 Manifestations on the Cardiac and the Vascular Systems

COVID-19 patients with pre-existing cardiovascular conditions are at greater risk of severe illness due to the SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) virus. This review evaluates the highest risk factors for these patients, not limited to pre-existing hypertension, cardiac arrhythmias, hypercoagulation, ischemic heart disease, and a history of underlying heart conditions. SARS-CoV-2 may also precipitate de novo cardiac complications. The interplay between existing cardiac conditions and de novo cardiac complications is the focus of this review. In particular, SARS-CoV-2 patients present with hypercoagulation conditions, cardiac arrhythmias, as significant complications. Also, cardiac arrhythmias are another well-known cardiovascular-related complication seen in COVID-19 infections and merit discussion in this review. Amid the pandemic, myocardial infarction (MI) has been reported to a high degree in SARS-CoV-2 patients. Currently, the specific causative mechanism of the increased incidence of MI is unclear. However, studies suggest several links to high angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) expression in myocardial and endothelial cells, systemic hyper-inflammation, an imbalance between myocardial oxygen supply and demand, and loss of ACE2-mediated cardio-protection. Furthermore, hypertension and SARS-CoV-2 infection patients’ prognosis has shown mixed results across current studies. For this reason, an in-depth analysis of the interactions between SARS-CoV2 and the ACE2 cardio-protective mechanism is warranted. Similarly, ACE2 receptors are also expressed in the cerebral cortex tissue, both in neurons and glia. Therefore, it seems very possible for both cardiovascular and cerebrovascular systems to be damaged leading to further dysregulation and increased risk of mortality risk. This review aims to discuss the current literature related to potential complications of COVID-19 infection with hypertension and the vasculature, including the cervical one. Finally, age is a significant prognostic indicator among COVID-19 patients. For a mean age group of 70 years, the main presenting symptoms include fever, shortness of breath, and a persistent cough. Elderly patients with cardiovascular comorbidities, particularly hypertension and diabetes, represent a significant group of critical cases with increased case fatality rates. With the current understanding of COVID-19, it is essential to explore the mechanisms by which SARS-CoV-2 operates to improve clinical outcomes for patients suffering from underlying cardiovascular diseases and reduce the risk of such conditions de novo.

Choosing the right COVID-19 indicator: crude mortality, case fatality, and infection fatality rates influence policy preferences, behaviour, and understanding

Individuals worldwide are overwhelmed with news about COVID-19. In times of pandemic, media alternate the usage of different COVID-19 indicators, ranging from the more typical crude mortality rate to the case fatality rate, and the infection fatality rate continuously. In this article, we used experimental methods to test whether and how the treatment of individuals with different types of information on COVID-19 is able to change policy preferences, individual and social behaviours, and the understanding of COVID-19 indicators. Results show that while the usage of the crude mortality rate proves to be more efficient in terms of supporting policy preferences and behaviours to contain the virus, all indicators suffer from a significant misunderstanding on behalf of the population.

Small Intestinal Perforation Secondary to Necrotizing Enteritis—An Under-Recognized Complication of Crohn’s Disease

Small bowel perforation is an uncommon but severe event in the natural history of Crohn’s disease with fewer than 100 cases reported. We review Crohn’s disease cases with necrotizing enteritis and share a case of a 26-year-old female who presented with a recurrent episode of small intestinal perforation. A PubMed literature review of case reports and series was conducted using keywords and combinations of “Crohn’s disease,” “small intestine perforation,” “small bowel perforation,” “free perforation,” “regional enteritis,” and “necrotizing enteritis.” Data extracted included demographic data, pre- or postoperative steroid administration, medical or surgical management, and case fatality. Nineteen reports from 1935 to 2021 qualified for inclusion. There were 43 patients: 20 males and 23 females with a mean age of 36 ± 15 years old. 75 total perforations were described: 56 ileal (74.6%), 15 jejunal (20.0%), 2 cecal (2.7%), and 1 small intestine non-specified (2.7%). 38 of 43 patients were managed surgically by primary repair (11), ostomy creation (21), or an anastomosis (11). Of 11 case fatalities, medical management alone was associated with higher mortality (5/5; 100% mortality) compared to those treated surgically (6/38; 15.8% mortality; P < .001). Patient sex, disease history, acute abdomen, and pre- or postoperative steroid use did not significantly correlate with mortality. Jejunal perforation was significantly ( P = .028) associated with event mortality while ileal was not ( P = .45). Although uncommon, necrotizing enteritis should be considered in Crohn’s patients who present with small intestinal perforation. These cases often require urgent surgical intervention and may progress to fulminant sepsis and fatality if not adequately treated.

An Assessment of the Philippine Hospital Resources as Predictors of the Case Fatality Rate of COVID – 19

In the heightened effects of the pandemic, health resources have been in constant limbo as supplies and availability of hospital resources take a toll as COVID-19 cases surge, resulting in shortages. Thus, health systems are overwhelmed, resulting in a higher fatality rate since the capacity to provide medical attention is diminished. In this paper, hospital resources refer to mechanical ventilators, ICU, isolation, and ward beds which are the critical factors of the case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 in the Philippines. Data were retrieved from the Department of Health (DOH) Case Bulletins from October 26, 2020, to June 30, 2021, with 248 total observations. This research used the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Multiple Regression to determine if hospital resources are the predictors of the case fatality rate of COVID-19. Furthermore, the results show a significant relationship between the hospital resources and the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in the Philippines. This study can become a framework for further research concerned about hospital resources as the predictors of case fatality rates of different diseases in a pandemic.

Diphtheria resurgence in Sada'a-Yemen, 2017–2020

Background Diphtheria is a contagious vaccine-preventable disease that contributes to the high morbidity and mortality among under 5 children, especially in Yemen. As a consequence of war and collapse of the health system, a fatal epidemic occurred at the end of 2017. This study aims to describe the epidemiology of diphtheria by time, place, and person and vaccination status of affected children. Methods A study was conducted in Sada'a governorate by using accumulative line list of diphtheria from November 2017 to September 2020 at electronic Integrated Disease Early Warning System (eIDEWS). The case definition of WHO was adopted. Data was analyzed by Microsoft Excel and Epi info- version 7.2 and multivariable logistic analysis used for identifying significant associated factors. Results 747 cases were met of WHO case definition. The annual peak of cases started during week 31 and weak 49. Males were slightly more than females (51% vs 49%) and about 35% of cases involved children aged 10 to < 15 years. The overall incidence of diphtheria and case fatality rate (CFR) were 69/ 100,000 and 6.4%, respectively. The highest CFR was among age groups under 5 years 11% (P < 0.001) and among females was 8%. Dysphagia and swollen lymph nodes were the predominant symptoms 98%, 92%, respectively. Based on the Vaccination status, the percentage of unvaccinated and unknown were 53% and 41% respectively, with CFR 11% among cases who received one dose. Furthermore, the most case were from Sahar 40% with case fatality rate 8% and the highest CFR was significantly higher among cases in border and ongoing conflict district (P < 0.05). Conclusions The findings highlight that diphtheria is still an ongoing cause of morbidity and mortality among under 5 children in Sada'a that is rising with the low diphtheria immunization coverage. Therefore, concomitant efforts should now focus on improving and monitoring routine immunization across all age groups and healthcare services, especially in borders and continuing conflict districts.

The incidence and mortality of COVID-19 related TB infection in Sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is also associated with other co-morbidities among with previous and current pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). PTB is a risk factor for COVID-19, both in terms of severity and mortality, regardless of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status. However, there is less information available on COVID-19 associated with PTB in point of view incidence and mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a high burden TB region. This systematic review served to provide data synthesis of available evidence on COVID-19/PTB incidence and case fatality rates, and mortality rate found in clinical and post-mortem COVID-19/PTB diagnostics in SSA. Methods We conducted a systematic electronic search in the PubMed, Medline, Google Scholar, Medrxix and COVID-19 Global literature on coronavirus disease databases for studies including COVID-19 associated with PTB in sub-Saharan Africa. The main outcomes were the proportion of people with COVID-19 associated to current /or previous PTB and the case fatality associated to COVID-19/PTB. The combination method was based on methodological similarities in the included random effect model studies using Prometa 3 software. We further undertook sensitivity analysis and meta-regression. Results From the 548 references extracted by the literature search, 25 studies were selected and included in the meta-analysis with a total of 191, 250 COVID-19 infected patients and 11, 452 COVID-19 deaths. The pooled COVID-19/PTB incidence was 2% [1%-3%] and mortality of 10% [4%-20%]. The pooled estimates for case fatality rate among COVID-19/PTB were 6% [3%-11%] for clinical PTB diagnostic and 26% [14%-48%] for post-mortem PTB diagnostic. Meta-regression model including the effect sizes and cumulative COVID-19 cases (P= 0.032), HIV prevalence (P= 0.041) and TB incidence (P= 0.002) to explained high heterogeneity between studies. Conclusion As a summary, the incidence of TB associated with COVID-19 and case fatality rates are higher in SSA. However, COVID-19 associated to TB may be underreported in the studies conducted in SSA as the post-mortem TB diagnostic was higher. Large-scale cohort studies that adequately clear tool on previous and/or current TB diagnostic tools are required to confirmed COVID-19/TB incidence and case fatality in SSA.