scholarly journals Climate change and agricultural productivity in Brazil: future perspectives

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 581-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliano Assunção ◽  
Flávia Chein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Perspectives ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractThis paper evaluates the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Cross-sectional variation in climate among Brazilian municipalities is used to estimate an equation in which geographical attributes determine agricultural productivity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions based on atmosphere–ocean, coupled with general circulation models (for 2030–2049), are used to simulate the impacts of climate change. Our estimates suggest that global warming under the current technological standards is expected to decrease the agricultural output per hectare in Brazil by 18 per cent, with the effects on municipalities ranging from−40 to+15 per cent.

scholarly journals When could global warming reach 4°C?

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1934) ◽  
pp. 67-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard A. Betts ◽  
Matthew Collins ◽  
Deborah L. Hemming ◽  
Chris D. Jones ◽  
Jason A. Lowe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Emissions Scenario

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate–carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with ‘FI’ standing for ‘fossil intensive’. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks, and also comparing against other model projections from the IPCC, our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC’s ‘likely range’.

Simulated impact of climate change on hydrology of multiple watersheds using traditional and recommended snowmelt runoff model methodology

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 665-682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emile Elias ◽  
Albert Rango ◽  
Caitriana M. Steele ◽  
John F. Mejia ◽  
Ruben Baca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Application ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Snowmelt Runoff ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Runoff Model ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

For more than two decades researchers have utilized the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) to test the impacts of climate change on streamflow of snow-fed systems. SRM developers recommend a parameter shift during simulations of future climate, but this is often omitted. Here we show the impact of this omission on model results. In this study, the hydrological effects of climate change are modeled over three sequential years with typical and recommended SRM methodology. We predict the impacts of climate change on water resources of five subbasins of an arid region. Climate data are downscaled to weather stations. Period change analysis gives temperature and precipitation changes for 55 general circulation models which are then subsampled to produce four future states per basin. Results indicate an increase in temperature between 3.0 and 6.2 °C and an 18% decrease to 26% increase in precipitation. Without modifications to the snow runoff coefficient (cS), mean results across all basins range from a reduction in total volume of 21% to an increase of 4%. Modifications to cS resulted in a 0–10% difference in simulated annual volume. Future application of SRM should include a parameter shift representing the changed climate.

scholarly journals Community Adaptation Model of Food Security Due to Global Warming in Kulon Progo

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Rum Giyarsih
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Survey Methods ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s surface. According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) average temperature of the Earth’s surface was global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the 0.74 ± 0.18 0C (1.33 ± 0.32 F) over the last hundred years. The impact of rising temperatures is the climate change effect on agricultural production. If the community does not craft made adaptation to global warming will have an impact on food security. This research aims to know the society’s adaptation to food security as a result of global warming and to know the influence of global warming on food security. The research was carried out based on survey methods. The influence of global warming on food security is identified with a share of household food expenditure and the identification of rainfall. Sampling was done by random sampling. The Data used are the primary and secondary data. Primary Data obtained through structured interviews and depth interview using a questionnaire while the secondary data retrieved from publication data of the Central Bureau Statistics B(BPS), Department of Agriculture and Climatology Meteorology and Geophysics (BMKG). The expected results of the study is to know variations of food security due to global warming in Kulon Progo Regency. Comprehensive knowledge through community participation and related Government increased food security that is used as the basis for drafting the model society’s adaptation to the impacts of global warming.

scholarly journals A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kleoniki Demertzi ◽  
Dimitris Papadimos ◽  
Vassilis Aschonitis ◽  
Dimitris Papamichail
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Modified Model ◽  
Natural Lakes ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This study proposes a simplistic model for assessing the hydroclimatic vulnerability of lakes/reservoirs (LRs) that preserve their steady-state conditions based on regulated superficial discharge (Qd) out of the LR drainage basin. The model is a modification of the Bracht-Flyr et al. method that was initially proposed for natural lakes in closed basins with no superficial discharge outside the basin (Qd = 0) and under water-limited environmental conditions {mean annual ratio of potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus rainfall (P) greater than 1}. In the proposed modified approach, an additional Qd function is included. The modified model is applied using as a case study the Oreastiada Lake, which is located inside the Kastoria basin in Greece. Six years of observed data of P, ETo, Qd, and lake topography were used to calibrate the modified model based on the current conditions. The calibrated model was also used to assess the future lake conditions based on the future climatic projections (mean conditions of 2061-2080) derived by 19 general circulation models (GCMs) for three cases of climate change (three cases of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The modified method can be used as a diagnostic tool in water-limited environments for analyzing the superficial discharge changes of LRs under different climatic conditions and to support the design of new management strategies for mitigating the impact of climate change on (a) flooding conditions, (b) hydroelectric production, (c) irrigation/industrial/domestic use and (d) minimum ecological flows to downstream rivers.

Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Tadashi Suetsugi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

scholarly journals Climate change impact on meteorological droughts in watershed scale (case study: southwestern Iran)

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alireza Nikbakht Shahbazi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Spring Precipitation ◽  
Data Simulation ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel

Drought is one of the major natural disasters in the world which has a lot of social and economic impacts. There are various factors that affect climate changes; the investigation of this incident is also sensitive. Climate scenarios of future climate change studies and investigation of efficient methods for investigating these events on drought should be assumed. This study intends to investigate climate change impacts on drought in Karoon3 watershed in the future. For this purpose, the atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) data under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios should be investigated. In this study, watershed drought under climate change impacts will be simulated in future periods (2011 to 2099). In this research standard precipitation index (SPI) was calculated using mean monthly precipitation data in Karoon3 watershed. SPI was calculated in 6, 12 and 24 months periods. Statistical analysis on daily precipitation and minimum and maximum daily temperature was performed. To determine the feasibility of future periods meteorological data production of LRAS-WG5 model, calibration and verification was performed for the base year (1980-2007). Meteorological data simulation for future periods under General Circulation Models and climate change IPCC scenarios was performed and then the drought status using SPI under climate change effects analyzed. Results showed that differences between monthly maximum and minimum temperature will decrease under climate change and spring precipitation shall increase while summer and autumn rainfall shall decrease. The most increase of precipitation will take place in winter and in December. Normal and wet SPI category is more frequent in B1 and A2 emissions scenarios than A1B. Wet years increases in the study area during 2011-2030 period and the more continuous drought years gradually increases during 2046-2065 period, the more severe and frequent drought will occur during the 2080-2099 period.

scholarly journals Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 449-463 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Posch ◽  
J. Aherne ◽  
M. Forsius ◽  
S. Fronzek ◽  
N. Veijalainen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Chemical Recovery ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Sulphur Deposition ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2). The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change) and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change). Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation) on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impacts of climate change on maize production in the Wami Ruvu basin of Tanzania

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 142-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philbert Luhunga ◽  
Ladslaus Chang'a ◽  
George Djolov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Lower Altitude ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Maize Yields ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessment reports confirm that climate change will hit developing countries the hardest. Adaption is on the agenda of many countries around the world. However, before devising adaption strategies, it is crucial to assess and understand the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. In this study, the impact of climate change on rain-fed maize (Zea mays) production in the Wami-Ruvu basin of Tanzania was evaluated using the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer. The model was fed with daily minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall and solar radiation for current climate conditions (1971–2000) as well as future climate projections (2010–2099) for two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These data were derived from three high-resolution regional climate models, used in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program. Results showed that due to climate change future maize yields over the Wami-Ruvu basin will slightly increase relative to the baseline during the current century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. However, maize yields will decline in the mid and end centuries. The spatial distribution showed that high decline in maize yields are projected over lower altitude regions due to projected increase in temperatures in those areas.

scholarly journals How Well Do We Understand and Evaluate Climate Change Feedback Processes?

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 3445-3482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandrine Bony ◽  
Robert Colman ◽  
Vladimir M. Kattsov ◽  
Richard P. Allan ◽  
Christopher S. Bretherton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
External Perturbation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Global Estimates

Abstract Processes in the climate system that can either amplify or dampen the climate response to an external perturbation are referred to as climate feedbacks. Climate sensitivity estimates depend critically on radiative feedbacks associated with water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, snow, and sea ice, and global estimates of these feedbacks differ among general circulation models. By reviewing recent observational, numerical, and theoretical studies, this paper shows that there has been progress since the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in (i) the understanding of the physical mechanisms involved in these feedbacks, (ii) the interpretation of intermodel differences in global estimates of these feedbacks, and (iii) the development of methodologies of evaluation of these feedbacks (or of some components) using observations. This suggests that continuing developments in climate feedback research will progressively help make it possible to constrain the GCMs’ range of climate feedbacks and climate sensitivity through an ensemble of diagnostics based on physical understanding and observations.

scholarly journals Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 6569-6614 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Lauri ◽  
H. de Moel ◽  
P. J. Ward ◽  
T. A. Räsänen ◽  
M. Keskinen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Cumulative Impacts ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change ◽  
Hydropower Reservoirs

Abstract. The transboundary Mekong River is facing two on-going changes that are estimated to significantly impact its hydrology and the characteristics of its exceptional flood pulse. The rapid economic development of the riparian countries has led to massive plans for hydropower construction, and the projected climate change is expected to alter the monsoon patterns and increase temperature in the basin. The aim of this study is to assess the cumulative impact of these factors on the hydrology of the Mekong within next 20–30 yr. We downscaled output of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) that were found to perform well in the Mekong region. For the simulation of reservoir operation, we used an optimisation approach to estimate the operation of multiple reservoirs, including both existing and planned hydropower reservoirs. For hydrological assessment, we used a distributed hydrological model, VMod, with a grid resolution of 5 km × 5 km. In terms of climate change's impact to hydrology, we found a high variation in the discharge results depending on which of the GCMs is used as input. The simulated change in discharge at Kratie (Cambodia) between the baseline (1982–1992) and projected time period (2032–2042) ranges from −11% to +15% for the wet season and −10% to +13% for the dry season. Our analysis also shows that the changes in discharge due to planned reservoir operations are clearly larger than those simulated due to climate change: 25–160% higher dry season flows and 5–24% lower flood peaks in Kratie. The projected cumulative impacts follow rather closely the reservoir operation impacts, with an envelope around them induced by the different GCMs. Our results thus indicate that within the coming 20–30 yr, the operation of planned hydropower reservoirs is likely to have a larger impact on the Mekong hydrograph than the impacts of climate change, particularly during the dry season. On the other hand, climate change will increase the uncertainty of the estimated hydropower impacts. Consequently, both dam planners and dam operators should pay better attention to the cumulative impacts of climate change and reservoir operation to the aquatic ecosystems, including the multibillion-dollar Mekong fisheries.

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