scholarly journals VARIETY, COMPETITION, AND POPULATION IN ECONOMIC GROWTH: THEORY AND EMPIRICS

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Alberto Bucci ◽  
Lorenzo Carbonari ◽  
Giovanni Trovato
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Finite Mixture Model ◽  
Growth Theory ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Impact

We provide aggregate macroeconomic evidence on how, in the long run, a diverse degree of complexity in production may affect not only the rate of economic growth, but also the correlation between the latter, population growth and the monopolistic (intermediate) markups. For a sample of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, we find that the impact of population change on economic growth is slightly positive. According to our theoretical model, this implies that the losses due to more complexity in production are lower than the corresponding specialization gains. Using a finite mixture model, we also classify the countries in the sample and verify for each cluster the impact that the population growth rate and the intermediate sector’s markups exert on the 5-year average real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate.

scholarly journals Taxation, government spending and economic growth: The case of Bulgaria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-266
Author(s):  
G. Ganchev ◽  
◽  
I. Todorov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this article is to estimate the impact of three fiscal instruments (direct taxes, indirect taxes, and government expenditure) on Bulgaria’s economic growth. The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Eurostat quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the period 1999–2020. Four control variables (the shares of gross capital formation, household consumption, and exports in GDP as well as the economic growth in the euro area) are included in the model to account for the influence of non-fiscal factors on Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate. The empirical results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between Bulgaria’s economic growth and the independent variables in the ARDL. In the short term, Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate is affected by its own past values and the previous values of the shares of direct tax revenue, exports, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue in GDP. In the long term, Bulgaria’s economic growth is influenced by its own previous values and the past values of the share of household consumption in GDP and the euro area’s real GDP growth rate. Fiscal instruments can be used to stabilize Bulgaria’s growth in the short run but they are neutral in the long run. The direct tax revenue, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue are highly effective and can be used as tools for invigorating and stabilizing Bulgaria’s economic growth in the short run. However, in the long term, the real GDP growth rate can be hastened only by encouraging domestic demand (final consumption expenditure of households) and promoting exports. This research cannot answer the question of whether flat income taxation stabilizes the economy or not, since it does not separate the impact of tax rate changes from the influence of tax base modifications.

scholarly journals Education and the Challenge of Poverty Alleviation in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 12-23
Author(s):  
R. Oke ◽  
S. I. Oladeji ◽  
O. P. Olofin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Educational System ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Interactive Effect ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Employment Rate ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
The Impact

Using Vector Autoregressive and Autoregressive Distributed Lag methods to examine the impact of education on poverty level and the interactive effect of education and economic growth on poverty level in Nigeria between 1985 and 2016, our results show that education promotes poverty level, instead of reducing it. We found significant cointegrating relationship among poverty, economic growth, education, employment rate, population growth rate, real physical capital formation, education level and real GDP. In the short-run, employment rate reduces poverty level, population growth rate increases poverty level both in the short and long-run. The results of interactive effect of economic growth and education on poverty growth show that jointly economic growth and education reduce poverty, although the results are not statistically significant. This shows that they have minimal impact on poverty level in Nigeria. Our findings may not be surprising, given the current slow-down in Nigeria educational system and the wide gap between the few rich and the larger poor. The study suggests improvement in Nigeria educational system so as promote employment and curb rising poverty level.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Ethiopia using an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Model Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alemayehu Temesgen Befikadu ◽  
Berhanu Alemu Tafa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government ◽  
Model Approach

Abstract ObjectiveThe study examines An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Ethiopia using an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Model Approach from the period of 1980 through 2019 with specific focus on total population, Growth Domestic Product, population growth rate, and foreign direct investment, inflow. This study investigated to understand the effects of total population on economic growth, and to analyze the short run and long run relationship of economic growth with respect to population growth.ResultsFrom the results of the study, personal remittance is stationary at level, while total population, FDI net inflows, population growth rate, rate of inflation, and gross capital formation are stationary at first difference. From the finding of long run equilibrium relationships between RGDP, population number, FDI, personal remittance, population growth rate, rate of inflation and GCF is existed since the value of F-statics is greater than the upper boundary line. Finally, to increase the economic growth of Ethiopia; the government should adopt policies that can attract the foreign investors. The government also should put a standard to guarantee that the economy grows at a larger rate than the population growth.

scholarly journals What is the relationship between FDI and economic growth? Evidence from EU15 countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 253-281
Author(s):  
Vlatka Bilas
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of the paper is to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in EU15 countries over the period 2002-2018. EU15 makes a group of countries which entered the EU prior to the biggest enlargement in 2004, namely latest in 1995 (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom). Paper findings contribute to the existing literature on the impact of FDI on economic growth. It employs different unit root tests, panel cointegration test (ARDL model) and Granger causality. Estimated panel ARDL model found some evidence that there are long-run equilibrium between LogGDP, LogFDI and LogFDIP series. The rate of adjustment back to equilibrium is between 4.43% and 5.95%. The long-run coefficients are all positive, but not all of them are statistically significant. In case of LogFDIP series long-run coefficients are statistically significant, varying between 0.1226 and 0.4398. These coefficients indicate that 1% increase in LogFDIP (logarithm of FDI to GDP) increases LogGDP between 0.1226% and 0.4398%. Results of Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test indicated that there is only unidirectional causal relationship from GDP growth rate to FDI growth rate, and from GDP growth rate to LogFDIP. Conclusively, there is only a weak evidence that FDI had statistically significant impact on the GDP in EU15 countries.

A NOTE ON THE IMPLICATIONS OF AUTOMATION FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE LABOR SHARE

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 1294-1301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus Prettner
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Labor Share ◽  
Long Run

We introduce automation into a standard model of capital accumulation and show that (i) there is the possibility of perpetual growth, even in the absence of technological progress; (ii) the long-run economic growth rate declines with population growth, which is consistent with the available empirical evidence; (iii) there is a unique share of savings diverted to automation that maximizes long-run growth; and (iv) automation explains around 14% of the observed decline of the labor share over the last decades in the United States.

scholarly journals Population and Economic Growth Under Different Growth Engines

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Bucci ◽  
Xavier Raurich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Human Capital Investment ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Long Run

Abstract Using a growth model with physical capital accumulation, human capital investment and horizontal R&D activity, this paper proposes an alternative channel through which an increase in the population growth rate may yield a non-uniform (i.e., a positive, negative, or neutral) impact on the long-run growth rate of per-capita GDP, as available empirical evidence seems mostly to suggest. The proposed mechanism relies on the nature of the process of economic growth (whether it is fully or semi-endogenous), and the peculiar engine(s) driving economic growth (human capital investment, R&D activity, or both). The model also explains why in the long term the association between population growth and productivity growth may ultimately be negative when R&D is an engine of economic growth.

scholarly journals Domestic Debt and Economic Growth in Tanzania

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. p207
Author(s):  
Josephat Lotto ◽  
Catherine T. Mmari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

The main objective of this paper was to examine the impact of domestic debt on economic growth in Tanzania for the period 1990 to 2015 using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression method to estimate the effects. The study finds that there is an inverse but insignificant relationship between domestic debt and the economic growth of Tanzania as measured by GDP annual growth. The inverse relationship between domestic debt and GDP may be caused by different factors such as; increased trend in domestic borrowing, government lenders’ profile dominated by commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions which promotes the “crowding out” effect; the nature of the instruments used by the government ; the improper use of the domestic borrowed funds which may include funding budgetary deficits, paying up principal and matured obligations on debt, developing financial markets as well as fund other government operations. Other control variables relate with the GDP as predicted. For example, Inflation (INF) has a negative effect on the GDP growth rate, but the relationship is not statistically significant, while gross capital formation (GCF) has a positive statistically significant effect on GDP growth rate. Furthermore, foreign direct investment (FDI) showed a positive effect on the GDP growth rate and export (X) has a positive effect on GDP growth rate, and the relationship is statistically significant explaining that if a country applied an export-led growth economic strategy it enjoys the gains of participating in the world market. This means that an increase in export stimulates demand for goods which leads to increase in output, and as a country’s output increases, the economic performance also takes a similar trend. Finally, government expenditure (GE) had a negative effect on the GDP growth rate which may be explained by the increased government expenditures which are funded by either tax or borrowing. Therefore, what is required for countries like Tanzania is to have better debt management strategies as well as prudential financial management while maintaining to remain within the internationally acceptable debt level of 45% of GDP and maintain a GDP growth rate of not less than 5%. It is important for the country to realize from where to borrow from, the tenure, the risks involved and limitations to borrowing and thus set the right balance of combination of both kinds of debt. Another requirement is to properly utilize the borrowed funds. The central government’s objective should be to use the funds in more development-oriented projects that bring positive returns to the economic development.  The government should not only create a right environment and policies for investment to attract investment from domestic and foreign sources but also be cautious about the kind of investments that the foreign investors make.

scholarly journals INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE EXAMPLE OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

2021 ◽  
pp. 21-41
Author(s):  
Jelena Bjelić
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Total Investment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

An investment is a factor of the economic growth and a mandatory constituent in the majority of development models. This study analyzes the impact of the gross investment on the economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) for the period 2005-2017, and provides the assessment of the interdependence of investment and a newly added value in industry. The relationship between the foreign investment and the economic growth is also included. The dependent variables are the GDP growth rate and the added value in industry (as % of GDP). The independent variables are the total investment rate (as % of GDP) and the foreign investment rate (as % of GDP). The hypothesis is that the gross investment and the foreign investment are positively correlated with the GDP growth rate. The investments contribute to a higher newly added value in industry. The results show that the gross investment is a significant factor of the economic growth because there is a high significance and positive correlation between the observed variables (the total investment and the GDP growth). This shows that the investment growth stimulates the economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But the dynamic analysis as an investment-GDP ratio shows oscillations. The impact of investments on the share of the newly added value in industry is insignificant and negative. The results of the dynamic analysis are similar. The relationship between the variables of the foreign investment rates and the GDP growth is significant and positive. Although the foreign investments are not sufficient, they still contribute, to a certain extent, to the economic growth of BiH.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF POPULATION FACTORS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF BANGKA BELITUNG ISLANDS - INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 280
Author(s):  
Ayu Sapitri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Average Length ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Labor Force Participation Rate

This study aims to analyze and determine the effect of population factors on economic growth in the Province of the Bangka Belitung Islands. The analysis method used is panel data regression. The type of data is quantitative data in the form of ADHK GRDP data by Regency/City, population growth rate, labor force participation rate, average length of schooling and life expectancy from 2010-2019. The data source is secondary obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province. The results showed that the population growth rate had a negative and significant effect on economic growth while the labor force participation rate had a positive and insignificant effect on economic growth, the average length of schooling had a positive and significant effect on economic growth and life expectancy had a positive and significant effect on growth. the economy of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province. Simultaneously the population growth rate, labor force participation rate, average length of schooling and life expectancy have a positive and significant impact on economic growth in the Province of the Bangka Belitung Islands.Keywords: Economic Growth, Population Growth Rate, Labor Force Participation Rate, Average Length of Schooling, and Life Expectancy.JEL :  O40, J11, J21, P36

scholarly journals Fall supplemental feeding increases population growth rate of an endangered caribou herd

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e10708
Author(s):  
Douglas C. Heard ◽  
Kathryn L. Zimmerman
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Supplemental Feeding ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
The Impact

Most woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations are declining primarily because of unsustainable predation resulting from habitat-mediated apparent competition. Wolf (Canis lupus) reduction is an effective recovery option because it addresses the direct effect of predation. We considered the possibility that the indirect effects of predation might also affect caribou population dynamics by adversely affecting summer foraging behaviour. If spring and/or summer nutrition was inadequate, then supplemental feeding in fall might compensate for that limitation and contribute to population growth. Improved nutrition and therefore body condition going into winter could increase adult survival and lead to improved reproductive success the next spring. To test that hypothesis, we fed high-quality food pellets to free-ranging caribou in the Kennedy Siding caribou herd each fall for six years, starting in 2014, to see if population growth rate increased. Beginning in winter 2015–16, the Province of British Columbia began a concurrent annual program to promote caribou population increase by attempting to remove most wolves within the Kennedy Siding and the adjacent caribou herds’ ranges. To evaluate the impact of feeding, we compared lambdas before and after feeding began, and to the population trend in the adjacent Quintette herd over the subsequent four years. Supplemental feeding appeared to have an incremental effect on population growth. Population growth of the Kennedy Siding herd was higher in the year after feeding began (λ = 1.06) compared to previous years (λ = 0.91) and to the untreated Quintette herd (λ = 0.95). Average annual growth rate of the Kennedy Siding herd over the subsequent four years, where both feeding and wolf reduction occurred concurrently, was higher than in the Quintette herd where the only management action in those years was wolf reduction (λ = 1.16 vs. λ = 1.08). The higher growth rate of the Kennedy Siding herd was due to higher female survival (96.2%/yr vs. 88.9%/yr). Many caribou were in relatively poor condition in the fall. Consumption of supplemental food probably improved their nutritional status which ultimately led to population growth. Further feeding experiments on other caribou herds using an adaptive management approach would verify the effect of feeding as a population recovery tool. Our results support the recommendation that multiple management actions should be implemented to improve recovery prospects for caribou.

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