scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Ethiopia using an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Model Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alemayehu Temesgen Befikadu ◽  
Berhanu Alemu Tafa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government ◽  
Model Approach

Abstract ObjectiveThe study examines An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Ethiopia using an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Model Approach from the period of 1980 through 2019 with specific focus on total population, Growth Domestic Product, population growth rate, and foreign direct investment, inflow. This study investigated to understand the effects of total population on economic growth, and to analyze the short run and long run relationship of economic growth with respect to population growth.ResultsFrom the results of the study, personal remittance is stationary at level, while total population, FDI net inflows, population growth rate, rate of inflation, and gross capital formation are stationary at first difference. From the finding of long run equilibrium relationships between RGDP, population number, FDI, personal remittance, population growth rate, rate of inflation and GCF is existed since the value of F-statics is greater than the upper boundary line. Finally, to increase the economic growth of Ethiopia; the government should adopt policies that can attract the foreign investors. The government also should put a standard to guarantee that the economy grows at a larger rate than the population growth.

scholarly journals MODELLING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION GROWTH AND INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT IN NIGERIA: AN AUTO-REGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTIVE LAG APPROACH (1980-2017)

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. G. Egbulonu ◽  
Erasmus E. Duru ◽  
Henry C. Dim
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Capacity Utilization ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Total Labour

This research work focuses on the relationship between population growth and industrial output in Nigeria for the period 1980 to 2017. It is particularly interesting to study the relationship between population growth and industrialization in Nigeria because at present, Nigeria is making rapid effort to advance her economy while undergoing a demographic transition that has been projected to be geometric in nature. This research developed an Auto-regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model using Index of Industrial Output as the dependent variable and Population growth rate, Birth rate, Total Labour Force (as a percentage of total population that are employed), Capacity Utilization and Manpower Development Index as the independent variables. The data was obtained from the World Bank, the National Population Commission and the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletins (various issues). The findings reveal that Population Growth Rate has an inverse relationship with Industrial Output both in the short run and in the long run while Total Labour Force and Capacity Utilization also decrease Industrial Output both in the short and long-run periods. Since the Bounds test reveals a long-run relationship between population and Industrial Output, we recommend a renewed determination and political will to implement the National Policy on Population for sustainable development that outlines a sectoral strategy to manage our rising population.

scholarly journals VARIETY, COMPETITION, AND POPULATION IN ECONOMIC GROWTH: THEORY AND EMPIRICS

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Alberto Bucci ◽  
Lorenzo Carbonari ◽  
Giovanni Trovato
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Finite Mixture Model ◽  
Growth Theory ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Impact

We provide aggregate macroeconomic evidence on how, in the long run, a diverse degree of complexity in production may affect not only the rate of economic growth, but also the correlation between the latter, population growth and the monopolistic (intermediate) markups. For a sample of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, we find that the impact of population change on economic growth is slightly positive. According to our theoretical model, this implies that the losses due to more complexity in production are lower than the corresponding specialization gains. Using a finite mixture model, we also classify the countries in the sample and verify for each cluster the impact that the population growth rate and the intermediate sector’s markups exert on the 5-year average real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate.

A NOTE ON THE IMPLICATIONS OF AUTOMATION FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE LABOR SHARE

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 1294-1301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus Prettner
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Labor Share ◽  
Long Run

We introduce automation into a standard model of capital accumulation and show that (i) there is the possibility of perpetual growth, even in the absence of technological progress; (ii) the long-run economic growth rate declines with population growth, which is consistent with the available empirical evidence; (iii) there is a unique share of savings diverted to automation that maximizes long-run growth; and (iv) automation explains around 14% of the observed decline of the labor share over the last decades in the United States.

scholarly journals Population and Economic Growth Under Different Growth Engines

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Bucci ◽  
Xavier Raurich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Human Capital Investment ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Long Run

Abstract Using a growth model with physical capital accumulation, human capital investment and horizontal R&D activity, this paper proposes an alternative channel through which an increase in the population growth rate may yield a non-uniform (i.e., a positive, negative, or neutral) impact on the long-run growth rate of per-capita GDP, as available empirical evidence seems mostly to suggest. The proposed mechanism relies on the nature of the process of economic growth (whether it is fully or semi-endogenous), and the peculiar engine(s) driving economic growth (human capital investment, R&D activity, or both). The model also explains why in the long term the association between population growth and productivity growth may ultimately be negative when R&D is an engine of economic growth.

scholarly journals Demographic determinant of primary school repeater in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. 11023
Author(s):  
Omas Bulan Samosir
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
General Education ◽  
Primary School ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government

The development of a country is supported by its education development. In general, education is financed by the government. It is expected that all school-age population can participate in education. Indonesia has implemented the nine-year compulsory basic education program. The aim of this study is to examine the demographic factors that affect the primary school repeater in Indonesia. The data source was from the World Bank Development Indicator of the World Bank. The data coverage was from 1971 to 2018. The dependent variable was the primary school repeater rate. The independent variables were the population growth rate and fixed telephone subscription. The data were analyzed using multiple regression analysis. The results of the study indicate that higher primary school repeater was associated with higher population growth rate and lower fixed telephone subscription. Therefore, Indonesia needs to manage its population growth rate and improve infrastructure development, in particular information technology infrastructure.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF POPULATION FACTORS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF BANGKA BELITUNG ISLANDS - INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 280
Author(s):  
Ayu Sapitri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Average Length ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Labor Force Participation Rate

This study aims to analyze and determine the effect of population factors on economic growth in the Province of the Bangka Belitung Islands. The analysis method used is panel data regression. The type of data is quantitative data in the form of ADHK GRDP data by Regency/City, population growth rate, labor force participation rate, average length of schooling and life expectancy from 2010-2019. The data source is secondary obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province. The results showed that the population growth rate had a negative and significant effect on economic growth while the labor force participation rate had a positive and insignificant effect on economic growth, the average length of schooling had a positive and significant effect on economic growth and life expectancy had a positive and significant effect on growth. the economy of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province. Simultaneously the population growth rate, labor force participation rate, average length of schooling and life expectancy have a positive and significant impact on economic growth in the Province of the Bangka Belitung Islands.Keywords: Economic Growth, Population Growth Rate, Labor Force Participation Rate, Average Length of Schooling, and Life Expectancy.JEL :  O40, J11, J21, P36

scholarly journals Determinants of Indonesia’s National Income: An Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-218
Author(s):  
Prihartini Budi Astuti ◽  
Nur Khasanah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
National Income ◽  
The United States ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government

At the end of 2019, most countries experienced an economic slowdown due to a trade war between the United States and China. According to macroeconomic theory, aggregate demand is one of the factors that influence economic growth. This study aims to add the debate and fill the gap by studying the relationship between aggregate demand and economic growth in the case of Indonesia. Using an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag analysis, the results indicate that in the long-run, household consumption and investment had a positive effect on Indonesia's national income in 2010-2019. It means that the government must continue to make policies to maintain the purchasing power of Indonesian consumers, so that public consumption remains high, and maintaining the investment climate to be more conducive. On the other hand, government expenditure and net exports variables have no impact on Indonesia's national income in 2010-2019.JEL Classification: E01, E12, O47How to Cite:Astuti, P. B., & Khasanah, N. (2020). Determinants of Indonesia’s National Income: An Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Analysis. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 9(2), 207-218. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i2.14469.

scholarly journals Psychiatry in Bangladesh

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 16-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Rezaul Karim ◽  
Fakhruzzaman Shaheed ◽  
Siddhartha Paul
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Land Area

The People's Republic of Bangladesh is located in South Asia. The total land area of Bangladesh is 147570 km2. Its total population in 2001 was about 123 million. The population growth rate is 1.47%; of the total population, 75% live in rural areas and 25% in urban areas (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2000).

scholarly journals INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRIALIZATION WITH NEGATIVE POPULATION GROWTH

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1647-1658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroaki Sasaki
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Home Country ◽  
Capita Consumption ◽  
World Population ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita Consumption ◽  
Negative Population

This paper builds a small-open-economy nonscale-growth model with negative population growth and investigates the relationship between trade patterns and per capita consumption growth. Under free trade, if the population growth rate is negative and its absolute value is small, the home country becomes an agricultural country. Then the long-run growth rate of per capita consumption is positive and depends on the world population growth rate. On the other hand, if the population growth rate is negative and its absolute value is large, the home country becomes a manufacturing country. Then the long-run growth rate of per capita consumption is positive and depends on both the home country and the world population growth rates. Moreover, the home country is better off under free trade than under autarky in terms of per capita consumption growth irrespective of whether the population growth is positive or negative.

scholarly journals Education and the Challenge of Poverty Alleviation in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 12-23
Author(s):  
R. Oke ◽  
S. I. Oladeji ◽  
O. P. Olofin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Educational System ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Interactive Effect ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Employment Rate ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
The Impact

Using Vector Autoregressive and Autoregressive Distributed Lag methods to examine the impact of education on poverty level and the interactive effect of education and economic growth on poverty level in Nigeria between 1985 and 2016, our results show that education promotes poverty level, instead of reducing it. We found significant cointegrating relationship among poverty, economic growth, education, employment rate, population growth rate, real physical capital formation, education level and real GDP. In the short-run, employment rate reduces poverty level, population growth rate increases poverty level both in the short and long-run. The results of interactive effect of economic growth and education on poverty growth show that jointly economic growth and education reduce poverty, although the results are not statistically significant. This shows that they have minimal impact on poverty level in Nigeria. Our findings may not be surprising, given the current slow-down in Nigeria educational system and the wide gap between the few rich and the larger poor. The study suggests improvement in Nigeria educational system so as promote employment and curb rising poverty level.

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