Total solar irradiance during the Holocene

Abstract. Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

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A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene 14C and CO2 records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Climate of the Past Discussions ◽

10.5194/cpd-9-1165-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 1165-1235 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

R. Roth ◽

F. Joos

Keyword(s):

Solar Activity ◽

Carbon Cycle ◽

Solar Irradiance ◽

Total Solar Irradiance ◽

High Solar Activity ◽

Solar Modulation ◽

Total Production ◽

Instrumental Data ◽

The Holocene ◽

The Past

Abstract. Past atmospheric CO2 concentrations reconstructed from polar ice cores combined with its Δ14C signature as conserved in tree-rings provide important information both on the cycling of carbon as well as the production of radiocarbon (Q) in the atmosphere. The latter is modulated by changes in the strength of the magnetic field enclosed in the solar wind and is a proxy for past changes in solar activity. We perform transient carbon-cycle simulations spanning the past 21 kyr using Bern3D-LPX, a fully featured Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) with a 3-D ocean, sediment and a dynamic vegetation model. Using the latest atmospheric IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon records, we reconstruct the Holocene radiocarbon fluxes and the total production rate. Our carbon-cycle based modern estimate of Q ≈ 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported by Masarik and Beer (2009) and more in line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). Q is then translated into the solar modulation potential (Φ) using the latest geomagnetic field reconstruction and linked to a recent reanalysis of early instrumental data. In contrast to earlier reconstructions, our record suggests that periods of high solar activity (>600 MeV) were quite common not only in recent millennia but throughout the Holocene. Solar activity in our decadally-smoothed record is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average of 650 MeV during the past 9 ka. But due to considerable uncertainties in the normalization of Φ to instrumental data, the absolute value of Φ remains weakly constrained. Further, our simulations with a spatially resolved model (taking the interhemispheric Δ14C gradient into account) show that reconstructions that rely on the Northern Hemisphere 14C record only are biased towards low values during the Holocene. Notable deviations on decadal-to-centennial time scales are also found in comparison with earlier reconstructions. In a last step, past total solar irradiance (TSI) is quantified using a recently published Φ-TSI relationship yielding small changes in Holocene TSI of order 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.17 W m−2. Future extension of TSI using autoregressive modeling suggest a declining solar activity in the next decades towards average Holocene conditions. Past TSI changes are finally translated into changes in surfaces atmospheric temperature (SAT) by forcing the Bern3D-LPX model with our new TSI record, yielding SAT anomalies of less than 0.1 K.

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The Fengyun-3E/Joint Total Solar Irradiance Absolute Radiometer: Instrument Design, Characterization, and Calibration

Solar Physics ◽

10.1007/s11207-021-01794-5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 296 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Baoqi Song ◽

Xin Ye ◽

Wolfgang Finsterle ◽

Manfred Gyo ◽

Matthias Gander ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Solar Irradiance ◽

Total Solar Irradiance ◽

Instrument Design

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Long-term variations in total solar irradiance

Solar Physics ◽

10.1007/bf01473177 ◽

1994 ◽

Vol 152 (1) ◽

pp. 13-21 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Judit M. Pap ◽

Richard C. Willson ◽

Claus Fr�hlich ◽

Richard F. Donnelly ◽

Larry Puga

Keyword(s):

Solar Irradiance ◽

Total Solar Irradiance ◽

Long Term Variations

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Stellar activity, differential rotation, and exoplanets

Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union ◽

10.1017/s1743921311015067 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 6 (S273) ◽

pp. 89-95 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

A. F. Lanza

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Differential Rotation ◽

Solar Irradiance ◽

Giant Planet ◽

Total Solar Irradiance ◽

Short Term ◽

Stellar Activity ◽

Transiting Planets ◽

Spot Model ◽

Spot Activity

AbstractThe photospheric spot activity of some of the stars with transiting planets discovered by the CoRoT space experiment is reviewed. Their out-of-transit light modulations are fitted by a spot model previously tested with the total solar irradiance variations. This approach allows us to study the longitude distribution of the spotted area and its variations versus time during the five months of a typical CoRoT time series. The migration of the spots in longitude provides a lower limit for the surface differential rotation, while the variation of the total spotted area can be used to search for short-term cycles akin the solar Rieger cycles. The possible impact of a close-in giant planet on stellar activity is also discussed.

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Total Solar Irradiance Trend During Solar Cycles 21 and 22

Science ◽

10.1126/science.277.5334.1963 ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 277 (5334) ◽

pp. 1963-1965 ◽

Cited By ~ 183

Author(s):

Richard C. Willson

Keyword(s):

Solar Irradiance ◽

Total Solar Irradiance ◽

Solar Cycles

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Data Fusion of Total Solar Irradiance Composite Time Series Using 40 years of Satellite Measurements: First Results

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4382 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jean-Philippe Montillet ◽

Wolfgang Finsterle ◽

Werner Schmutz ◽

Margit Haberreiter ◽

Rok Sikonja

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Data Fusion ◽

Solar Irradiance ◽

Total Solar Irradiance ◽

Maunder Minimum ◽

The Sun ◽

Climate Reconstructions ◽

The Earth ◽

First Results ◽

The Difference

Since the late 70&#8217;s, successive satellite missions have been monitoring the sun&#8217;s activity, recording total solar irradiance observations. These measurements are important to estimate the Earth&#8217;s energy imbalance, i.e. the difference of energy absorbed and emitted by our planet. Climate modelers need the solar forcing time series in their models in order to study the influence of the Sun on the Earth&#8217;s climate. With this amount of TSI data, solar irradiance reconstruction models &#160;can be better validated which can also improve studies looking at past climate reconstructions (e.g., Maunder minimum). Various algorithms have been proposed in the last decade to merge the various TSI measurements over the 40 years of recording period. We have developed a new statistical algorithm based on data fusion.&#160;&#160;The stochastic noise processes of the measurements are modeled via a dual kernel including white and coloured noise.&#160;&#160;We show our first results and compare it with previous releases (PMOD,ACRIM, ... ).&#160;

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