Impact of Solar Activity on Snow Cover Variation Over the Tibetan Plateau and Linkage to the Summer Precipitation in China

Solar activity is one of the main external forcing factors driving the Earth’s climate system to change. The snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau is an important physical factor affecting the East Asian climate. At present, insufficient research on the connection between solar activity and snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau has been carried out. Using Solar Radio Flux (SRF), Solar Sunspot Number (SSN), and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) data, this paper calculated the correlation coefficients with snow indices over the Tibetan Plateau, such as winter and spring snow depth (WSD/SSD) and snow day number (WSDN/SSDN). These snow indices are obtained from the daily gauge snow data in the Tibetan Plateau. Through correlation analyses, it is found that there are significant synchronous or lag correlations between snow indices and solar parameters on multi-time scales. In particular, the Spring Snow Day Number (SSDN) is of significant synchronous or lag correlation with SRF, SSN, and TSI on multi-time scales. It is further found that SSDN over the Tibetan Plateau has more stable positive correlations with SRF by using the 21-year running mean and cross spectrum analyses. Therefore, SSDN can be ascertained to be the most sensitive snow index to the solar activity compared with other snow indices. Moreover, its influence on summer precipitation of China is strongly regulated by solar activity. In high solar activity years (HSAY), the significant correlated area of summer precipitation in China to SSDN is located further north than that in low solar activity years (LSAY). Such impact by solar activity is also remarkable after excluding the impact of ENSO (i.e., El Niño–Southern Oscillation) events. These results provide support for the application of snow indices in summer rainfall prediction in China.

Influence of the semidiurnal lunar tide in the equatorial plasma bubble zonal drifts over Brazil

Using OI6300 airglow images collected over São João do Cariri (7.4∘ S, 36.5∘ W) from 2000 to 2007, the equatorial plasma bubble (EPB) zonal drifts were calculated. A strong day-to-day variability was observed in the EPB zonal drifts, which is directly associated with the very complex dynamics of the nighttime thermosphere–ionosphere system near the Equator. The present work investigated the contribution of the semidiurnal lunar tide M2 for the EPB zonal drifts. The M2 presented an amplitude of 3.1 m s−1 in the EPB zonal drifts, which corresponds to 5.6 % of the average drifts. The results showed that the M2 amplitudes in the EPB zonal drifts were solar cycle and seasonally dependent. The amplitude of the M2 was stronger during the high solar activity, reaching over 10 % of the EPB zonal drift average. Regarding the seasons, during the Southern Hemisphere summer, the M2 amplitude was twice as large (12 %) compared to the equinox ones. The seasonality agrees with other observations of the M2 in the ionospheric parameters such as vertical drifts and electron concentration, for instance. On the other hand, the very large M2 amplitudes found during the high solar activity agree with previous observations of the lunar tide in the ionospheric E region.

Impact of Solar Activity on Global Atmospheric Circulation Based on SD-WACCM-X Simulations from 2002 to 2019

In this study, a global atmospheric model, Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension (SD-WACCM-X), and the residual circulation principle were used to study the global atmospheric circulation from the lower to upper atmosphere (~500 km) from 2002 to 2019. Our analysis shows that the atmospheric circulation is clearly influenced by solar activity, especially in the upper atmosphere, which is mainly characterized by an enhanced atmospheric circulation in years with high solar activity. The atmospheric circulation in the upper atmosphere also exhibits an ~11 year period, and its variation is highly correlated with the temporal variation in the F10.7 solar index during the same time series, with a maximum correlation coefficient of up to more than 0.9. In the middle and lower atmosphere, the impact of solar activity on the atmospheric circulation is not as obvious as in the upper atmosphere due to some atmospheric activities such as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), volcanic forcing, and so on. By comparing the atmospheric circulation in different latitudinal regions between years with high and low solar activity, we found the atmospheric circulation in mid- and high-latitude regions is more affected by solar activity than in low-latitude and equatorial regions. In addition, clear seasonal variation in atmospheric circulation was detected in the global atmosphere, excluding the regions near 10−4 hPa and the lower atmosphere, which is mainly characterized by a flow from the summer hemisphere to the winter hemisphere. In the middle and low atmosphere, the atmospheric circulation shows a quasi-biennial oscillatory variation in the low-latitude and equatorial regions. This work provides a referable study of global atmospheric circulation and demonstrates the impacts of solar activity on global atmospheric circulation.

A Neural Network-Based TEC Model Capable of Reproducing Nighttime Winter Anomaly

With the availability of fast computing machines, as well as the advancement of machine learning techniques and Big Data algorithms, the development of a more sophisticated total electron content (TEC) model featuring the Nighttime Winter Anomaly (NWA) and other effects is possible and is presented here. The NWA is visible in the Northern Hemisphere for the American sector and in the Southern Hemisphere for the Asian longitude sector under solar minimum conditions. During the NWA, the mean ionization level is found to be higher in the winter nights compared to the summer nights. The approach proposed here is a fully connected neural network (NN) model trained with Global Ionosphere Maps (GIMs) data from the last two solar cycles. The day of year, universal time, geographic longitude, geomagnetic latitude, solar zenith angle, and solar activity proxy, F10.7, were used as the input parameters for the model. The model was tested with independent TEC datasets from the years 2015 and 2020, representing high solar activity (HSA) and low solar activity (LSA) conditions. Our investigation shows that the root mean squared (RMS) deviations are in the order of 6 and 2.5 TEC units during HSA and LSA period, respectively. Additionally, NN model results were compared with another model, the Neustrelitz TEC Model (NTCM). We found that the neural network model outperformed the NTCM by approximately 1 TEC unit. More importantly, the NN model can reproduce the evolution of the NWA effect during low solar activity, whereas the NTCM model cannot reproduce such effect in the TEC variation.

New possibilities of the PCA-Seq method in the analysis of time series (on the example of solar activity)

When analyzing a 1D time series, it is traditional to represent it as the sum of the trend, cyclical components and noise. The trend is seen as an external influence. However, the impact can be not only additive, but also multiplicative. In this case, not only the level changes, but also the amplitude of the cyclic components. In the PCA-Seq method, a generalization of SSA, it is possible to pre-standardize fragments of a time series to solve this problem. The algorithm is applied to the Anderson series – a sign alternating version of the well-known Wolf series, reflecting the 22-year Hale cycle. The existence of this cycle is not disputed at high solar activity, but there are doubts about the constancy of its period at this time, as well as its existence during the epoch of low solar activity. The processing of the series by the PCA-Seq method revealed clear oscillations fluctuations of almost constant amplitude with an average period of 21.9 years, and it was found that the correlation of these oscillations with the time axis for 300 years does not differ significantly from zero. This confirms the hypothesis of the existence of 22-year oscillations in solar activity even at its minima, like the Maunder minimum.

Changes in solar activity based on radiocarbon data and climate variations in the interval 8000 - 1000 BC

This work examines the change in the activity of the Sun based on the reconstruction of the heliospheric modulation potential in the time interval 8000 - 1000 BC. Reconstructions of this potential were obtained using radiocarbon data, taking into account the influence of changes in the Earth’s climate. A comparison is made of the variations in the activity of the Sun with the global surface temperature. It is shown that variations in global temperature during this period could be the result of changes in solar activity. So high solar activity could lead to recorded temperature maximums around 7000 and 5300 BC. The drop in temperature in the range 3000-1000BC could be the result of low solar activity.

M(3000)F2 and IRI-2012 model at an equatorial latitude in the African sector

We have used ionosonde data from Ouagadougou (Geo. Lat.12.40 N, Long. 358.50, Magnetic declination -5.1320) to study the morphology of M(3000)F2 and to investigate the performance of IRI-12 during 1991 and 1995, years of high and low solar activities respectively. Results show that M(3000)F2 exhibits diurnal and solar cycle characteristics with no distinctive monthly/seasonal features. The two peaks which characterize the diurnal M(3000)F2 during high solar activity (HSA) are reduced to just one (the sunrise peak) during low solar activity (LSA). The study also shows that IRI-12 gives good representations of the observed values of M(3000)F2 with high correlation coefficient, R ranging between 0.9 and 0.95 during LSA and 0.94 and 0.99 during HSA. The model gives its best performance in the months of April irrespective of the solar activity. It either under-estimates or over-estimates the observed values of M(3000)F2 during other months.

Evaluating the Performance of IRI-2016 Using GPS-TEC Measurements over the Equatorial Region

Total electron content (TEC) is an important parameter in the ionosphere that is extensively used to study the variability of the ionosphere as it significantly affects radio wave propagations, causing delays on GPS signals. Therefore, evaluating the performance of ionospheric models is crucial to reveal the variety of ionospheric behaviour in different solar activity periods during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods for further improvements of the IRI model performance over the equatorial region. This research aimed to investigate the variations of ionospheric VTEC and observe the improvement in the performance of the IRI-2016 (IRI-2001, IRI01-corr, and NeQuick). The IRI-2016 was evaluated with the IRI-2012 using NeQuick, IRI-2001, and IRI01-corr topside electron density options. The data were obtained using a dual-frequency GPS receiver installed at the Universiti Utara Malaysia Kedah (UUMK) (geographic coordinates 4.62° N–103.21° E, geomagnetic coordinates 5.64° N–174.98° E), Mukhtafibillah (MUKH) (geographic coordinates 6.46° N–100.50° E, geomagnetic coordinates 3.32° S–172.99° E), and Tanjung Pengerang (TGPG) (geographic coordinates 1.36° N–104.10°E, geomagnetic coordinates 8.43° S–176.53° E) stations, during ascending to high solar activity at the geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods in October 2011, March 2012, and March 2013. The maximum hourly ionospheric VTEC was observed during the post-noon time, while the minimum was during the early morning time. The ionospheric VTEC modelled by IRI-2016 had a slight improvement from the IRI-2012. However, the differences were observed during the post-noon and night-time, while the modelled VTEC from both IRI models were almost similar during the early morning time. Regarding the daily quiet and disturbed period’s prediction capability of the IRI-2016 and IRI-2012, IRI-2016 gave better agreement with the measured VTEC. The overall results showed that the model’s prediction performance during the high solar activity period in 2013 was better than the one during the ascending solar activity period. The results of the comparison between IRI-2016 and IRI-2012 in high solar activity exhibited that during quiet periods, all the IRI models showed better agreement with the measured VTEC compared to the disturbed periods.

Accuracy of Global Ionosphere Maps in Relation to Their Time Interval

Global ionosphere maps (GIMs) representing ionospheric total electron content (TEC) are applicable in many scientific and engineering applications. However, the GIMs provided by seven Ionosphere Associated Analysis Centers (IAACs) are generated with different temporal resolutions and using different modeling techniques. In this study, we focused on the influence of map time interval on the empirical accuracy of these ionospheric products. We investigated performance of the high-resolution GIMs during high (2014) and low (2018) solar activity periods as well as under geomagnetic storms (19 February 2014 and 17 March 2015). In each of the analyzed periods, GIMs were also assessed over different geomagnetic latitudes. For the evaluation, we used direct comparison of GIM-derived slant TEC (STEC) with dual-frequency GNSS observations obtained from 18 globally distributed stations. In order to perform a comprehensive study, we also evaluated GIMs with respect to altimetry-derived vertical TEC (VTEC) obtained from the Jason-2 and Jason-3 satellites. The study confirmed the influence of GIMs time interval on the provided TEC accuracy, which was particularly evident during high solar activity, geomagnetic storms, and also at low latitudes. The results show that 120-min interval contributes significantly to the accuracy degradation, whereas 60-min one is sufficient to maintain TEC accuracy.