scholarly journals It’s complicated: characterizing the time-varying relationship between cell phone mobility and COVID-19 spread in the US

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Jewell ◽  
Joseph Futoma ◽  
Lauren Hannah ◽  
Andrew C. Miller ◽  
Nicholas J. Foti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cell Phone ◽  
The United States ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variation ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Local Effects ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Model Flexibility

AbstractRestricting in-person interactions is an important technique for limiting the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Although early research found strong associations between cell phone mobility and infection spread during the initial outbreaks in the United States, it is unclear whether this relationship persists across locations and time. We propose an interpretable statistical model to identify spatiotemporal variation in the association between mobility and infection rates. Using 1 year of US county-level data, we found that sharp drops in mobility often coincided with declining infection rates in the most populous counties in spring 2020. However, the association varied considerably in other locations and across time. Our findings are sensitive to model flexibility, as more restrictive models average over local effects and mask much of the spatiotemporal variation. We conclude that mobility does not appear to be a reliable leading indicator of infection rates, which may have important policy implications.

scholarly journals It’s complicated: characterizing the time-varying relationship between cell phone mobility and COVID-19 spread in the US

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Jewell ◽  
Joseph Futoma ◽  
Lauren Hannah ◽  
Andrew C. Miller ◽  
Nicholas J. Foti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cell Phone ◽  
The United States ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variation ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Local Effects ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Model Flexibility ◽  
One Year

AbstractRestricting in-person interactions is an important technique for limiting the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Although early research found strong associations between cell phone mobility and infection spread during the initial outbreaks in the United States, it is unclear whether this relationship persists across locations and time. We propose an interpretable statistical model to identify spatiotemporal variation in the association between mobility and infection rates. Using one year of US county-level data, we found that sharp drops in mobility often coincided with declining infection rates in the most populous counties in spring 2020. However, the association varied considerably in other locations and across time. Our findings are sensitive to model flexibility, as more restrictive models average over local effects and mask much of the spatiotemporal variation. We conclude that mobility does not appear to be a reliable leading indicator of infection rates, which may have important policy implications.

scholarly journals Estimating Unreported COVID-19 Cases with a Time-Varying SIR Regression Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 1090
Author(s):  
Zhenghong Peng ◽  
Siya Ao ◽  
Lingbo Liu ◽  
Shuming Bao ◽  
Tao Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Fixed Time ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
County Level ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Us

Background: Potential unreported infection might impair and mislead policymaking for COVID-19, and the contemporary spread of COVID-19 varies in different counties of the United States. It is necessary to estimate the cases that might be underestimated based on county-level data, to take better countermeasures against COVID-19. We suggested taking time-varying Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models with unreported infection rates (UIR) to estimate factual COVID-19 cases in the United States. Methods: Both the SIR model integrated with unreported infection rates (SIRu) of fixed-time effect and SIRu with time-varying parameters (tvSIRu) were applied to estimate and compare the values of transmission rate (TR), UIR, and infection fatality rate (IFR) based on US county-level COVID-19 data. Results: Based on the US county-level COVID-19 data from 22 January (T1) to 20 August (T212) in 2020, SIRu was first tested and verified by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. Further regression of SIRu at the county-level showed that the average values of TR, UIR, and IFR were 0.034%, 19.5%, and 0.51% respectively. The ranges of TR, UIR, and IFR for all states ranged from 0.007–0.157 (mean = 0.048), 7.31–185.6 (mean = 38.89), and 0.04–2.22% (mean = 0.22%). Among the time-varying TR equations, the power function showed better fitness, which indicated a decline in TR decreasing from 227.58 (T1) to 0.022 (T212). The general equation of tvSIRu showed that both the UIR and IFR were gradually increasing, wherein, the estimated value of UIR was 9.1 (95%CI 5.7–14.0) and IFR was 0.70% (95%CI 0.52–0.95%) at T212. Interpretation: Despite the declining trend in TR and IFR, the UIR of COVID-19 in the United States is still on the rise, which, it was assumed would decrease with sufficient tests or improved countersues. The US medical system might be largely affected by severe cases amidst a rapid spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Estimating Unreported COVID-19 Cases in the United States Based on the tvSIRu Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingbo Liu ◽  
Tao Hu ◽  
Shuming Bao ◽  
Hao Wu ◽  
Zhenghong Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Fixed Time ◽  
The United States ◽  
Rate Equations ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
County Level ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Data

Abstract BackgroundThe potential unreported infection may impair and mislead policymaking for COVID-19，and the contemporary spread of COVID-19 varies in different counties of the United States. It is necessary to estimate the cases that may be underestimated based on county-level data to take better countermeasures against COVID-19. We suggested taking time-varying SIR models with unreported infection rates (UIR)to estimate the factual COVID-19 cases in the United States.MethodsSIR integrated with unreported infection rates (SIRu) of fixed time effect and SIR with time-varying parameters (tvSIRu)were applied to estimate and compare the value of transmission rate(TR), UIR, and infection fatality rate (IFR) based on US county-level COVID-19 data. ResultsBased on US county-level COVID-19 data from January 22 (T1) to August 20 (T212) in 2020, SIRu was first tested and verified by a general OLS regression. The further regression of SIRu at the country-level showed that the average values of TR, UIR, and IFR were 0.034,19.5, 0.51% respectively. The range of TR, UIR, IFR of all states ranged were 0.007-0.157 (mean=0.048) ,7.31-185.6 (mean=38.89), and 0.04%-2.22% (mean=0.22%). Among time-varying transmission rate equations, the power function showed better fitness, which indicated a decline in TR decreasing from 227.58 (T1) to 0.022 (T212). The general equation of tvSIRu showed that both the UIR and IFR were gradually increasing, wherein, the UIR has an estimate of 9.1(95%CI = 5.7-14.0), and IFR was 0.70% (0.52%-0.95%) at T212.InterpretationDespite the decline in TR and IFR, the UIR of the United States is still on the rise, which had been supposed to decrease with sufficient tests or improved countersues. The US medical system may be largely affected by severe cases in the rapid spread of COVDI-19.

scholarly journals Alternate care sites during the COVID-19 pandemic: Policy Implications for pandemic surge planning

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Sue Anne Bell ◽  
Lydia Krienke ◽  
Kathryn Quanstrom
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Capacity Planning ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Multiple Response ◽  
Current Policy ◽  
Surge Capacity ◽  
Effective Care ◽  
The Us ◽  
Staffing Needs

Abstract Alternate care sites across the US were widely underutilized during the COVID-19 outbreak, while the volume and severity of COVID-19 cases overwhelmed health systems across the United States. The challenges presented by the pandemic have shown the need to design surge capacity principles with consideration for demand that strains multiple response capabilities. We reviewed current policy and previous literature from past ACS as well as highlight challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic, to make recommendations that can inform future surge capacity planning. Our recommendations include: 1) Preparedness actions need to be continuous and flexible; 2) Staffing needs must be met as they arise with solutions that are specific to the pandemic; 3) Health equity must be a focus of ACS establishment and planning; and 4) ACS should be designed to function without compromising safe and effective care. A critical opportunity exists to identify improvements for future use of ACS in pandemics.

scholarly journals Exploring Attitudes About the Legality of Self-Managed Abortion in the US: Results from a Nationally Representative Survey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Raifman ◽  
M. Antonia Biggs ◽  
Lauren Ralph ◽  
Katherine Ehrenreich ◽  
Daniel Grossman
Keyword(s):  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Public Attitudes ◽  
The United States ◽  
Public Affairs ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Law ◽  
Nationally Representative

Abstract Introduction Twenty-four states have at least one law in place that could be used to prosecute people for self-managed abortion (SMA), or the termination of a pregnancy outside of the formal healthcare system. We investigated factors associated with public attitudes about SMA legality and legal access to abortion more generally. Methods In August 2017, we surveyed a nationally representative sample of English- and Spanish-speaking women ages 18–49 years in the United States (US) using Ipsos Public Affairs’ KnowledgePanel. Unadjusted and adjusted multinomial logistic regression estimates identify characteristics associated with believing that SMA should not be against the law, compared to should be against the law, with weighting to account for sampling into the panel. Results Overall, 76% (95% CI: 74.3%-77.1%) and 59% (95% CI: 57.3%-60.4%) of participants (n = 7,022, completion rate 50%) reported that abortion and SMA, respectively, should not be against the law; 1% and 19% were unsure. Among those living in a state with at least one law that could be used to prosecute an individual for SMA, the majority (55%, 95% CI: 52.7%-57.9%) believed SMA should not be against the law. Factors associated with believing SMA should not be against the law, compared to should be against the law, included prior abortion experience and higher levels of education and income. Conclusion Most reproductive age women in the US believe that SMA should not be criminalized. There is more uncertainty about SMA legality than about the legality of abortion more generally. Policy Implications US laws that criminalize SMA are not supported by the majority of the people living in their jurisdictions.

scholarly journals Land Use and Family Formation in the Settlement of the US Great Plains

2012 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 279-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Myron P. Gutmann ◽  
Sara M. Pullum-Piñón ◽  
Kristine Witkowski ◽  
Glenn D. Deane ◽  
Emily Merchant
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Family Formation ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Intensive Cropping ◽  
Western Great Plains

In agricultural settings, environment shapes patterns of settlement and land use. Using the Great Plains of the United States during the period of its initial Euro-American settlement (1880–1940) as an analytic lens, this article explores whether the same environmental factors that determine settlement timing and land use—those that indicate suitability for crop-based agriculture—also shape initial family formation, resulting in fewer and smaller families in areas that are more conducive to livestock raising than to cropping. The connection between family size and agricultural land availability is now well known, but the role of the environment has not previously been explicitly tested. Descriptive analysis offers initial support for a distinctive pattern of family formation in the western Great Plains, where precipitation is too low to support intensive cropping. However, multivariate analysis using county-level data at 10-year intervals offers only partial support to the hypothesis that environmental characteristics produce these differences. Rather, this analysis has found that the region was also subject to the same long-term social and demographic changes sweeping the rest of the country during this period.

scholarly journals Public Reporting: Illumination or Shadows?

2006 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-98
Author(s):  
LE Nicolle
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Infection Control ◽  
Health Care Organizations ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
The United States ◽  
Public Reporting ◽  
Mandatory Reporting ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
The Us ◽  
Conceptual Shift

The infection control communities in Britain and the United States (US) are experiencing an extraordinary conceptual shift with legislated mandatory reporting of hospital infections. In Britain, this shift began in 2001 with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteremia episodes (1), which are reported to the National Health Service and are publically available on a Health Protection Agency Web site. In the US, the impetus for public reporting of infection rates has come from consumer groups (2). These organizations have bypassed health care organizations and public health and other practitioners, and have addressed their demands to state legislatures. At least eight states have now passed and several more are considering legislation to mandate reporting. The process has been rancorous and, at least initially, vigorously opposed by health care organizations and infection control practitioners.

scholarly journals The Extent of Al-Qaeda’s Presence in Africa: Security Threats and Policy Implications to the U.S.

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 26-41
Author(s):  
Daniel Chigudu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Qualitative Methodology ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Al Qaeda ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Nuclear Terrorism ◽  
The Us

Following a period close to fifteen years of fighting the extremist terrorist group Al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, the United States (US) is faced with diverse security threats from affiliates of Al Qaeda in Africa. This study explores the extent of Al Qaeda’s presence in Africa, security threat and policy implications to the US. A qualitative methodology through document analysis and informed by the interpretivist research paradigm was employed. With Al Qaeda’s continued growth, there could be nuclear terrorism, arms and drug trafficking among other threats. Policy recommendations are given for the United States of America.

scholarly journals Wisconsin April 2020 Election Not Associated with Increase in COVID-19 Infection Rates

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew C. Berry ◽  
Madhuri S. Mulekar ◽  
Bruce B. Berry
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Case Reports ◽  
The United States ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Primary Election ◽  
Milwaukee County ◽  
The Us ◽  
Voting Age

AbstractBackgroundWisconsin (WI) held a primary election in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Live voting at polls was allowed despite concern over increasing the spread of COVID-19. In addition to 1.1 million absentee ballots cast, 453,222 persons voted live. The purpose of our study was to determine if an increase in COVID-19 activity was associated with the election.MethodsUsing the voting age population for the United States (US), WI, and its 3 largest counties, and daily new COVID-19 case reports from various COVID-19 web-based dashboards, daily new case rates were calculated. With election day April 7, the incubation period included April 12-21. The new case activity in the rest of the US was compared with the Wisconsin activity during the incubation period.ResultsWI daily new case rates were lower than those of the rest of the US for the 10-day period before the election and remained lower during the post exposure incubation period. The ratio of Wisconsin new case rates to US new case rates was 0.34 WI: 1 US for the 10 days leading up to the election and declined to 0.28 WI: 1 US for the 10-day post-incubation period after the election. Similar analysis for Milwaukee county showed a pre-election ratio of 1.02 Milwaukee: 1 US and after the election the ratio was 0.63 Milwaukee: 1 US. Dane county had a pre-election ratio of 0.21 Dane: 1 US case, and it fell to 0.13 Dane: 1 US after the election. Waukesha county had a pre-election ratio of 0.27 Waukesha: 1 US case and that fell to 0.19 Waukesha: 1 US after the election.ConclusionsThere was no increase in COVID-19 new case daily rates observed for Wisconsin or its 3 largest counties following the election on April 7, 2020, as compared to the US, during the post-incubation interval period.

Book Reviews

2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 289-291
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Wall Street ◽  
Troubled Asset Relief Program ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Relief Program ◽  
Bank Bailouts ◽  
Washington University

Anjan V. Thakor of Washington University in St. Louis reviews “TARP and Other Bank Bailouts and Bail-Ins around the World: Connecting Wall Street, Main Street, and the Financial System,” by Allen N. Berger and Raluca A. Roman. The Econlit abstract of this book begins: “Analyzes theoretical and empirical research evidence on the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in the United States and other bank bailouts and bail-ins in the US and around the world, assessing the important costs and benefits of these programs in order to suggest potential policy implications for the future.”

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