scholarly journals COVID-19: assessment and forecast of the development of the residential real estate market of the Russian Federation using the housing affordability factor model

2021 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
pp. 02013
Author(s):  
Tatyana Tretyachenko ◽  
Galina Pivovarova ◽  
Svetlana Sogomonyan

The situation in the Russian real estate market can be significantly aggravated in the context of the crisis caused by the pandemic COVID-19. To understand how soon the Russian residential real estate market will be able to adapt to the new realities, it is necessary to give a forecast of the main trends that will occur in this sector in the post-viral era. The impact on the residential real estate market of the crisis caused by the widespread introduction of the quarantine regime and other restrictive measures in the framework of countering the pandemic of viral infection, the declaration of public health emergencies has not been investigated in the international and domestic literature. Since the current crisis is caused by the shock of demand and the shock of supply, which allows us to talk about it as a financial crisis with massive bankruptcy of both legal entities and individuals, the authors in their study relied on scientific works, the subject of which were the development of the real estate market in the context of the economic crisis. The main results of the study include: highlighting the characteristics of the residential real estate market that developed on the eve of the outbreak of the crisis; in conditions of shock period; its restoration and possible directions for the development of the residential real estate market in the near and medium term. In order to predict the situation in the domestic residential real estate market, a model of housing affordability ratio was applied (taking into account mortgage support). The findings of a study of the situation in the residential real estate market allowed the authors to propose a number of measures that need to be taken at the level of state authorities in the context of the "pandemic effect."

Author(s):  
Boris Bedin ◽  
Natalya Kovalevskaya

The article discusses approaches to solving the problem of ensuring housing affordability, which is relevant for many countries, including Russia. The concepts of «residential real estate market» and «housing affordability» are analyzed from various points of view; criteria that characterize housing affordability are defined. The possibilities of using various methods of acquiring residential real estate in a market eco­nomy are analyzed. The features of the Russian system of mortgage lending based on a comparison of approaches to determining the affordability of housing in Russia and abroad are noted. As a key area for solving the problem of housing affordability, the possibilities of a mortgage lending system are considered. Statistical data are presented. They demonstrate the relationship between the indicators cha­racterizing the state of the mortgage lending system and the dynamics of prices in the real estate market. The relationship between the availability of mortgages and the availability of housing is indicated.


2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 281-296
Author(s):  
Mirela Mitrašević

Abstract The subject of this paper is the contemporary trend in residential real estate markets in European countries and their impact on the quality of banks’ housing loan portfolios. Due to the fact that these are the markets that still have not fully recovered from the previous financial crisis, and at the time of writing were exposed to significant uncertainty related to the effects of specific business conditions caused by COVID-19, the research on the risks related to these markets and tools which can mitigate their consequences are of paramount importance. Given the fact that the importance of monitoring the emergence of systemic risks in the financial system and the design of macroprudential tools for Bosnia and Herzegovina is yet to come, one of the aims of the paper is to present the results of the research on the effectiveness of certain macroprudential policy measures for mitigating the impact of price fluctuations in residential real estate markets. A special attention is paid to the challenges that the real estate market and mortgage loans have been facing during the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper provides a basis for future researches examining to which extent the applied macroprudential policy measures in some countries have been effective in hitherto unprecedented business conditions


Author(s):  
D. Shteingauz ◽  
A. Kuznyetsova ◽  
D. Achimovich

Abstract. The state of financial support of seven state programs of housing affordability, which currently operate in Ukraine, has been studied and analyzed. As a result, the most effective programs in terms of state aid and the average amount of state aid per recipient were identified. The main significant shortcoming in the implementation of state programs for housing affordability is their constant underfunding from the state budget, which hinders the manifestation of a synergistic positive effect. Deficit of budget funds and restrictions or complete refusal to allocate budget allocations to finance state support for housing affordability programs for various categories of the population negatively affect the state of development of the residential real estate market in Ukraine. This constrains both the demand and the supply of housing due to the lack of financial resources to cover the existing investment needs both at the construction stage and during the sale of already built residential real estate. The multiplier effect from the implementation of state programs of housing affordability on the revival of the real estate market by attracting citizens’ own funds to the construction industry is determined. The priority mechanisms for providing housing to Ukrainians are outlined: mortgage loans at 7% per annum with a down payment of 15% of the cost of housing and financial leasing at 5% without down payment, which are aimed primarily at supporting the population of Ukraine and strengthen protection of interest’s citizens. There is a need to improve financial and credit instruments that overcome the problem of lack of financial resources for the real estate market and help to quickly create the necessary residential real estate, taking into account the strategic interests of all participants — individuals (investors), developers, banks and non-bank financial institutions, state and local authorities, as well as local communities. Keywords: financial support, state program, investment projects, financial and credit instruments, mortgage loans, financial leasing, residential real estate market. JEL Classification G21 Formulas: 0; fig.: 1; tabl.: 1; bibl.: 10.


Author(s):  
Agnieszka Sadowa

Abstract The study analyses the changes in financing the purchase of residential real estate based on a mortgage in Poland, caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in its initial stage, that is, the period from March to September 2020. The research problem is the impact of the pandemic on the process of granting and repaying loans for housing purposes. Banking institutions tightened the terms of granting financing. People who received financing earlier may, however, benefit from assistance in paying off the debt. The research hypothesis assumes the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for the consumers of the housing loan market in the analysed period. The research methods used are the analysis of statistical data and facts. The author looks at the situation on the real estate market and the situation on the housing loan market in 2020. The study then highlights the actions of lending banks and the actions of buyers in the first pandemic months.


2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 894-912
Author(s):  
Tat'yana A. RUBLEVA

Subject. This article examines the impact of project financing on the development of the real estate funding market in the context of the transition to the digital economy. Objectives. The article aims to define the features of project financing in the property construction and its development prospects in the context of the transition to the digital economy. Methods. For the study, I used comparative and logical analyses, object-oriented design, and the systems approach. Results. The article defines the essence of project financing and its role in the development of the real estate funding market in the transition to the digital economy. It describes a number of features of project financing in construction and compares them with the features of project financing of innovative industrial projects. The article shows how to solve existing problems in this area and offers a use case diagram that helps develop a software product relevant to the real estate funding market. Conclusions and Relevance. The real estate funding market is a complex structure and it includes the synergy of the real estate market, banking market, and the financial market. Project financing is an integral part of the real estate funding market. It stimulates the development of quality consulting services in the market and produces key requirements for the profession of the next generation. The results of the study can be used to improve banking activities in project financing and when creating quality services of consulting companies in the real estate funding market.


2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 309-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanda C. S. MARTINS ◽  
Marlene N. M. FILIPE ◽  
Fernando A. F. FERREIRA ◽  
Marjan S. JALALI ◽  
Nelson J. S. ANTÓNIO

Residential real estate assumes crucial importance in a country's socioeconomic development. It is an important field of study, and much work has gone into better understanding the sector and the factors determining sales within it, such as time-on-the-market (TOM). TOM can be influenced by a variety of elements; a fact that in effect raises a lot of issues, because these determinants are often interpreted in an ambiguous or unstructured way. This study aims to bring greater accuracy and structure to our understanding of these factors, by showing that the integrated use of cognitive mapping with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) can give rise to a conceptually coherent and empirically valid framework to calculate TOM indices in the residential real estate market. Because it takes into account both tangible and intangible characteristics of a house, this measurement framework also boosts strategic planning support and allows for more informed business planning, which we believe can be a real contribution to the development of the real estate market. The practical implications and limitations of this evaluation system are also discussed.


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