Grey system theory and fuzzy time series forecasting for the growth of green electronic materials

For the long-term monitoring of structure, the deformation trend changes periodically and is hard to extract. A small amount of recent data can be selected to avoid such problem. The study refers to the idea of grey system theory and provides an improved way of deformation prediction in time series analysis with a small amount of data. By cumulating the original data, the trend item is made clear and the rule of data becomes obvious. The prediction results show that the way provided by this article gives a more accurate prediction in the short term. When the prediction results have a large deviation with actual deformation, it can be believed that the trend has changed and the monitored structure may be affected.

Download Full-text

Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Grey System Theory and Time Series Analysis

2010 Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference ◽

10.1109/appeec.2010.5448651 ◽

2010 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ruiqing Wang

Keyword(s):

System Theory ◽

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Grey System Theory ◽

Electricity Price ◽

Price Forecasting ◽

Grey System ◽

Short Term ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Electricity Price Forecasting

Download Full-text

Evaluating the accuracy of grey system theory against time series in predicting online auction closing price

2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services ◽

10.1109/gsis.2007.4443318 ◽

2007 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Deborah Lim ◽

Patricia Anthony ◽

Ho Chong Mun

Keyword(s):

System Theory ◽

Time Series ◽

Grey System Theory ◽

Online Auction ◽

Grey System ◽

Closing Price

Download Full-text

Prediction of Technical Reserves Based on Grey Model — GM(1,1): Evidence from Non-life Egyptian Insurance Market

Journal of Business and Economics ◽

10.15341/jbe(2155-7950)/09.10.2019/006 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (9) ◽

pp. 852-860

Author(s):

Mahmoud Elsayed ◽

◽

Amr Soliman ◽

Keyword(s):

System Theory ◽

Grey System Theory ◽

Insurance Market ◽

Grey Model ◽

Loss Ratio ◽

Grey System ◽

Mathematical Technique ◽

Supervisory Authority ◽

Error Ratio ◽

Using Data

Grey system theory is a mathematical technique used to predict data with known and unknown characteristics. The aim of our research is to forecast the future amount of technical reserves (outstanding claims reserve, loss ratio fluctuations reserve and unearned premiums reserve) up to 2029/2030. This study applies the Grey Model GM(1,1) using data obtained from the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA) over the period from 2005/2006 to 2015/2016 for non-life Egyptian insurance market. We found that the predicted amounts of outstanding claims reserve and loss ratio fluctuations reserve are highly significant than the unearned premiums reserve according to the value of Posterior Error Ratio (PER).

Download Full-text