Inequality and the global climate regime: breaking the north-south impasse

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 621-648 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradley C Parks ◽  
J Timmons Roberts
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Regime ◽  
The North

Building a More Effective Global Climate Regime Bottom-Up

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard B. Stewart ◽  
Michael Oppenheimer ◽  
Bryce Rudyk
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Regime ◽  
Bottom Up

scholarly journals The evolving response of mesopelagic fishes to declining midwater oxygen concentrations in the southern and central California Current

2018 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 626-638 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Anthony Koslow ◽  
Pete Davison ◽  
Erica Ferrer ◽  
S Patricia A Jiménez Rosenberg ◽  
Gerardo Aceves-Medina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baja California ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
California Current ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Oxygen Minimum Zones ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Oxygen Concentrations

Abstract Declining oxygen concentrations in the deep ocean, particularly in areas with pronounced oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), are a growing global concern related to global climate change. Its potential impacts on marine life remain poorly understood. A previous study suggested that the abundance of a diverse suite of mesopelagic fishes off southern California was closely linked to trends in midwater oxygen concentration. This study expands the spatial and temporal scale of that analysis to examine how mesopelagic fishes are responding to declining oxygen levels in the California Current (CC) off central, southern, and Baja California. Several warm-water mesopelagic species, apparently adapted to the shallower, more intense OMZ off Baja California, are shown to be increasing despite declining midwater oxygen concentrations and becoming increasingly dominant, initially off Baja California and subsequently in the CC region to the north. Their increased abundance is associated with warming near-surface ocean temperature, the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal oscillation and Multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index, and the increased flux of Pacific Equatorial Water into the southern CC.

scholarly journals Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenjun Zhang ◽  
Feng Jiang ◽  
Malte F. Stuecker ◽  
Fei-Fei Jin ◽  
Axel Timmermann
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Primary Driver ◽  
North Tropical Atlantic

AbstractThe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary driver of year-to-year global climate variability, is known to influence the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST), especially during boreal spring season. Focusing on statistical lead-lag relationships, previous studies have proposed that interannual NTA SST variability can also feed back on ENSO in a predictable manner. However, these studies did not properly account for ENSO’s autocorrelation and the fact that the SST in the Atlantic and Pacific, as well as their interaction are seasonally modulated. This can lead to misinterpretations of causality and the spurious identification of Atlantic precursors for ENSO. Revisiting this issue under consideration of seasonality, time-varying ENSO frequency, and greenhouse warming, we demonstrate that the cross-correlation characteristics between NTA SST and ENSO, are consistent with a one-way Pacific to Atlantic forcing, even though the interpretation of lead-lag relationships may suggest otherwise.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in European and North Atlantic Seasonal Wind Climate Derived from CMIP5 Simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (19) ◽  
pp. 6467-6490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimmo Ruosteenoja ◽  
Timo Vihma ◽  
Ari Venäläinen
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
Seasonal Wind ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract Future changes in geostrophic winds over Europe and the North Atlantic region were studied utilizing output data from 21 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). Changes in temporal means, extremes, and the joint distribution of speed and direction were considered. In concordance with previous research, the time mean and extreme scalar wind speeds do not change pronouncedly in response to the projected climate change; some degree of weakening occurs in the majority of the domain. Nevertheless, substantial changes in high wind speeds are identified when studying the geostrophic winds from different directions separately. In particular, in northern Europe in autumn and in parts of northwestern Europe in winter, the frequency of strong westerly winds is projected to increase by up to 50%. Concurrently, easterly winds become less common. In addition, we evaluated the potential of the GCMs to simulate changes in the near-surface true wind speeds. In ocean areas, changes in the true and geostrophic winds are mainly consistent and the emerging differences can be explained (e.g., by the retreat of Arctic sea ice). Conversely, in several GCMs the continental wind speed response proved to be predominantly determined by fairly arbitrary changes in the surface properties rather than by changes in the atmospheric circulation. Accordingly, true wind projections derived directly from the model output should be treated with caution since they do not necessarily reflect the actual atmospheric response to global warming.

scholarly journals Ensemble models on palaeoclimate to predict India's groundwater challenge

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Partha Sarathi Datta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Ensemble Models ◽  
North West ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
14C Age

In many parts of the world, freshwater crisis is largely due to increasing water consumption and pollution by rapidly growing population and aspirations for economic development, but, ascribed usually to the climate. However, limited understanding and knowledge gaps in the factors controlling climate and uncertainties in the climate models are unable to assess the probable impacts on water availability in tropical regions. In this context, review of ensemble models on δ18O and δD in rainfall and groundwater, 3H- and 14C- ages of groundwater and 14C- age of lakes sediments helped to reconstruct palaeoclimate and long-term recharge in the North-west India; and predict future groundwater challenge. The annual mean temperature trend indicates both warming/cooling in different parts of India in the past and during 1901–2010. Neither the GCMs (Global Climate Models) nor the observational record indicates any significant change/increase in temperature and rainfall over the last century, and climate change during the last 1200 yrs BP. In much of the North-West region, deep groundwater renewal occurred from past humid climate, and shallow groundwater renewal from limited modern recharge over the past decades. To make water management to be more responsive to climate change, the gaps in the science of climate change need to be bridged.

Constraining Neoproterozoic subtropical low-level clouds to assess the plausibility of near-Snowball Earth states

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Braun ◽  
Aiko Voigt ◽  
Johannes Hörner ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Mixed Phase ◽  
Snowball Earth ◽  
Stable Range ◽  
Climate Regime ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Mixed Phase Clouds

<p>Stable waterbelt climate states with close to global ice cover challenge the classical Snowball Earth hypothesis because they provide a robust explanation for the survival of advanced marine species during the Neoproterozoic glaciations (1000 – 541 Million years ago). Whether Earth’s climate stabilizes in a waterbelt state or rushes towards a Snowball state is determined by the magnitude of the ice-albedo feedback in the subtropics, where dark, bare sea ice instead of snow-covered sea ice prevails. For a given bare sea-ice albedo, the subtropical ice-albedo feedback and thus the stable range of the waterbelt climate regime is sensitive to the albedo over ice-free ocean, which is largely determined by shortwave cloud-radiative effects (CRE). In the present-day climate, CRE are known to dominate the spread of climate sensitivity across global climate models. We here study the impact of uncertainty associated with CRE on the existence of geologically relevant waterbelt climate regimes using two global climate models and an idealized energy balance model. We find that the stable range of the waterbelt climate regime is very sensitive to the abundance of subtropical low-level mixed-phase clouds. If subtropical cloud cover is low, climate sensitivity becomes so high as to inhibit stable waterbelt states.</p><p>The treatment of mixed-phase clouds is highly uncertain in global climate models. Therefore we aim to constrain the uncertainty associated with their CRE by means of a hierarchy of global and regional simulations that span horizontal grid resolutions from 160 km to 300m, and in particular include large eddy simulations of subtropical mixed-phase clouds located over a low-latitude ice edge. In the cold waterbelt climate subtropical CRE arise from convective events caused by strong meridional temperature gradients and stratocumulus decks located in areas of large-scale descending motion. We identify the latter to dominate subtropical CRE and therefore focus our large eddy simulations on subtropical stratocumulus clouds. By conducting simulations with two extreme scenarios for the abundance of atmospheric mineral dust, which serves as ice-nucleating particles and therefore can control mixed-phase cloud physics, we aim to estimate the possible spread of CRE associated with subtropical mixed-phase clouds. From this estimate we may assess whether Neoproterozoic low-level cloud abundance may have been high enough to sustain a stable waterbelt climate regime.</p>

IMPROVING THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PRECIPITATION FORECASTS AT SEASONAL SCALE OVER THE HIMALAYAN REGION USING MACHINE LEARNING

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
SOURABH SHRIVASTAVA ◽  
RAM AVTAR ◽  
PRASANTA KUMAR BAL
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
North American ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Himalayan Region ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
The North

The coarse horizontal resolution global climate models (GCMs) have limitations in producing large biases over the mountainous region. Also, single model output or simple multi-model ensemble (SMME) outputs are associated with large biases. While predicting the rainfall extreme events, this study attempts to use an alternative modeling approach by using five different machine learning (ML) algorithms to improve the skill of North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) GCMs during Indian summer monsoon rainfall from 1982 to 2009 by reducing the model biases. Random forest (RF), AdaBoost (Ada), gradient (Grad) boosting, bagging (Bag) and extra (Extra) trees regression models are used and the results from each models are compared against the observations. In simple MME (SMME), a wet bias of 20[Formula: see text]mm/day and an RMSE up to 15[Formula: see text]mm/day are found over the Himalayan region. However, all the ML models can bring down the mean bias up to [Formula: see text][Formula: see text]mm/day and RMSE up to 2[Formula: see text]mm/day. The interannual variability in ML outputs is closer to observation than the SMME. Also, a high correlation from 0.5 to 0.8 is found between in all ML models and then in SMME. Moreover, representation of RF and Grad is found to be best out of all five ML models that represent a high correlation over the Himalayan region. In conclusion, by taking full advantage of different models, the proposed ML-based multi-model ensemble method is shown to be accurate and effective.

EU Climate and Energy Policy: A Hesitant Supranational Turn?

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jørgen Wettestad ◽  
Per Ove Eikeland ◽  
Måns Nilsson
Keyword(s):  
European Commission ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Vertical Integration ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Emissions Trading ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Climate Regime ◽  
Regional Energy ◽  
Climate And Energy Policy

This article examines the recent changes of three central EU climate and energy policies: the revised Emissions Trading Directive (ETS); the Renewables Directive (RES); and internal energy market (IEM) policy. An increasing transference of competence to EU level institutions, and hence “vertical integration,” has taken place, most clearly in the case of the ETS. The main reasons for the differing increase in vertical integration are, first, that more member states were dissatisfied with the pre-existing system in the case of the ETS than in the two other cases. Second, the European Commission and Parliament were comparatively more united in pushing for changes in the case of the ETS. And, third, although RES and IEM policies were influenced by regional energy security concerns, they were less structurally linked to and influenced by the global climate regime than the ETS.

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